Add Morgan Stanley to BP and the EIA in the Short on Oil betting pool, as they pro0ject a supply glut for 2025 and price drop into the $70 range.  That number Is based on their analyses of "fundamentals" of Supply & Demand, and doesn't really take into account the effects of a Recession, which remains IMHO likely to arrive by the end of 2023, if it's not already here.  With recession factored in, a price in the $60s is possible, and that's where things really get interesting on the production level.  While the tight oil producers probably can squeak by with mid $70s prices, $60s is a big money loser.  We're down in the $70s again today already, while Morgan Stanley doesn't call for that until mid-2025.  So a drop into the $60s seems probable to me next year.

Despite all these indicators of a coming glut and price drop, there hasn't been any newz about producers reacting by  saying they will cut production, probably because they don't want to spook traders and seem bearish about the future of the economy.  However, I'm sure they are hedging with some short side bets.

Interestingly, the Newz from the POTUS election on both sides, with Trump"s Bloody Ear and Uncle Joe's swan song doesn't seem to have any effect on the oil market at all, or any other market.  In past years something like an Assassination attempt would have generated big changes in sentiment and made significant changes to the needle on pricing.  Which basically demonstrates that noobody really cares who is elected or thinks whoever it is will make any difference.  Who the POTUS is has become an unimportant detail.  The POTUS has about as much real power as the King of England, which is to say none.  Just a figurehead these days.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Morgan-Stanley-Sees-Oil-Prices-Dropping-to-the-Mid-70s-Next-Year.html

RE