Quote from: RE on Sep 18, 2024, 12:57 AM

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 20, 2024, 12:29 PMA racist mofo who wants white girls to spread their legs.  And do nothing else.  All kinds of graphs he shows to demonstrate his personal brand of doom.

Sort of like Hitler's League of German Mattresses.

In fairness, Putin has also issued an edict suggesting Ruskies use their lunch breaks to fuck.

The common thread here is that everyone wants their OWN group to breed, and others to stop.

RE

Am I really the only one here with kids and watching them decide for themselves in real time whether or not they want families? Because no one here except me mentions kids at all, and mine are certainly making their own choices for their own reasons, which are fascinating.

Macro economic theory is wonderful for ruminating, but it all begins at the micro level building up from a solid base of understanding, at least somewhere, in some nation or group. Lacking experience there...well...you can forecast a trend but you don't have a clue if it'll hold if you have no understanding of the micro.

Its like figuring out oil prduction. A bell shaped curve looks like an obvious answer. Until it doesn't. 

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 20, 2024, 12:29 PMA racist mofo who wants white girls to spread their legs.  And do nothing else.  All kinds of graphs he shows to demonstrate his personal brand of doom.

Sort of like Hitler's League of German Mattresses.

In fairness, Putin has also issued an edict suggesting Ruskies use their lunch breaks to fuck.

The common thread here is that everyone wants their OWN group to breed, and others to stop.

RE

Looks like the Nipponese are winning the race for self extinction.  One has to figure with so many old people. pretty soon you'll have a LO of them kick the bucket in the same year and get a real big drop in population.  It will be interesting to see how they handle a rapid population contraction.  At least there should be bigger apartments available in Tokyo.

https://www.newsweek.com/japan-news-population-crisis-3-numbers-1954889

Japan's Population Crisis in Three Numbers

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 17, 2024, 02:24 PMGravity and giant concrete blocks.

Similar to this is using the Elevators in Skyscrapers to store energy to run he building.

Lift Energy Storage System: Turning skyscrapers into gravity batteries



RE

Quote from: RE on Sep 16, 2024, 12:53 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 16, 2024, 10:05 AMBut an interesting guy, and yet another of us geriatrics.

Demographic result of the collapsing birth rate in industrial civilization.

RE

Iver doesn't care about that much. I tihnk he is another of those childless types lacking the experience of raising, caring for, dealing with and turning crying little sleep destroyers into college educated productive adults.

He was just another hanger on of peak oil with a better story than most. Got it wrong, as usual, and then moved on. Bought an ICE car later after his wife passed. Still has the art shop on the island I think.

New thread for energy storage, focusing on methods OTHER than batteries, particularly Li-I, since we all know about the pollution problems and resource scarcity issues attached to heavy dependence on this chemistry.

I really like this one because it's fundamentally very low tech and doesn't require microprocessors or complex systems.  Basically just a big spinning wheel with high mass and low friction which allow it to  keep spinning until you put a load on it to generate electricity.  Along with gravity systems like stored hydro, it's a great way to balance the load with intermittent generating systems like solar and wind.

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/china-world-largest-flywheel-energy-storage

World's largest flywheel energy storage system with 30 MW output connected to grid

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 16, 2024, 10:05 AMBut an interesting guy, and yet another of us geriatrics.

Demographic result of the collapsing birth rate in industrial civilization.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 09, 2024, 06:31 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 09, 2024, 06:22 PMThese guys make for an interesting conversation.

2 hours?  Can you give us a brief synopsis of this marathon talk fest?  Maybe give us the time on a coupe of highlights?  Last time I listened to Simon I was not impressed.

RE

Simon knows his stuff. Not on the petroleum geology side, as demonstrated by prior work related to oil in his Geologic Survey of Finland writeup. Screwed that pooch pretty badly on the reference side, but he might not know any better, as his work was mostly internet based, and the internet tends to provide the information you want, as opposed to the full spectrum answer you think you've gotten. Makes sense though, Finland doesn't have dick for oil, it isn't like he interviewed the USGS folks who do inside and out. But he has interesting credentials and experience on the hard rock side.

But the one you REALLY missed was IVER!!! Mr. Lofling if you want to be formal. School art teacher, built an electric car on his own during the pre-2005 peaker days, was around peakoil.com (THE place to be for awhile) and has been a consistent declarer of every peak oil that came down the pike for decades now. An artist by trade, not a technical thought in his head so he was naturally behind the curve, but a born sucker for the idea for decades since his Peace Corp work, if not longer.

We have some friends in common, in that he runs his art shop on Swan island I believe, and I know homeowners there who occasionally hang with Iver. His wife passed recently, he still declares peak oil every time some new internet person tries to fire up the idea, and he ran for a seat in the Maine state legislature last election cycle. Lost.

But an interesting guy, and yet another of us geriatrics.

Quote from: RE on Sep 15, 2024, 08:21 PMAt least you acknowledge we hit Peak Oil 6 years ago. 
RE

Absolutely. There is no disputing that 2018 is the most recent global peak oil. #6 of this century, claimed or occurred. Only the rest of the price/demand relationship can dictate if it holds though.

Currently a lack of increasing demand seems to have brought this particular boogey man to heel for 6 years. Quite a surprise to some of those claimed industry experts if they are still alive I imagine.

Quote from: Jan Lundberg vintage 2005The scenario I foresee is that market-based panic will, within a few days, drive prices up skyward. And as supplies can no longer slake daily world demand of over 80 million barrels a day, the market will become paralyzed at prices too high for the wheels of commerce and even daily living in "advanced" societies. There may be an event that appears to trigger this final energy crash, but the overall cause will be the huge consumption on a finite planet.

EIA link:
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1704067200000

An interesting aside is that, some 19 years later, the world is still making about  81 mmbbl/d (according to the 2023 annual number from the EIA). So if you wanted to discuss a peak, the one in 2018 (about 82.9 mmbbl/d) in the context of the 2005 vintage hysteria, it seems like you could call it all 20 years of plateau, +/-, if someone wanted to.

In either case, its a good thing that the world hasn't been needing much oil because the environment will only be a better place as we continue to grow population, and obvious now need much less oil per person!