We've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline already. Besides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 03:11 PMWe've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline the already.

Collapse CAN be a local event. Like Katrina. But that isn't the one Doomers get all worked up over. When you were in full doomer mode with websites and followers and fundage down in South Carolina, is what you were selling was some folks in Eastern Europe having to put up solar panels or NG fired generation to replace electricity from a nuke plant? Because water for coolant was low? No....that wasn't what you were interested in.

The reason you reach for small potatoes is because there aren't any big potato items going on. Or none on a current fuse anyway. Climate change is to slow on your timeframe to be of interest. Peak oils have come and gone a few times without anyone noticing. The US, for all its idiot political crap is still feeding people, oligarches, illegals, retiree's, and those completely dependent on the state. Now THAT one is a criteria I think might be, or should be, most of personal concern. I have the same concern but in a different way. If care of the elderly goes south and contributes to a falling population, I've got to figure out how to care for my mother. Fortunately that is possible for me, but probably not for everyone.

Quote from: REBesides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.
RE

Now, lagging indicator is a good angle. Population decrease is always happening, as is population replacement. But for the balance of births to deaths to go net negative would be visible as it happens. So....do we have any indication of people dying at unprecedented, but not yet numerically significant enough to count, events?

Nuke plants MAYBE shutting down certainly ain't it. Russia's war might be s start? Russia seems to be losing quite a few folks. The usual poor countries in Africa perhaps? Anything new there on  a scale that outweighs new births do you think?

I previously responded listing all the countries with declining populations.  You can search for it.

RE

Poor Brown Amerikans.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 07:58 PMI previously responded listing all the countries with declining populations.  You can search for it.
RE

Sure I can search for it. But I'm not a piecemeal collapse-o-not, I am a BIG TIME COLLAPSER!!!!! You know, like peak oilers were, like you used to be before you voiced this recent "little countries decreasing in population is collapse" angle. The oilers went to full on DOOM, which was picked up by those with similar ideas but using a different mechanism (global cooling in 1970 for example).

A country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere. EASY. Which is why country level can't be the metric.

This is Japan's population. Feel free to point out how TERRIBLE this measure of collapse has bothered them otherwise. Bodies piling up in the street? How many are starving each year? Etc etc. Apparently collapse started for them around 2010.....any evidence of anything other than a decreasing population? Bodies piling up in the streets from starvation, ALMOST lack of electricity like your nuke example?

Quote from: REPoor Brown Amerikans.
RE

If, and looking like "when" Boulder dam has both a power and water issue, is it your opinion that it will effect only the non brown Americans? In Puerto Rico, surrounded by an ocean, water isn't the actual issue at all. The money for desalinization plants might be, but that is a money problem, not a water problem. Boulder Dam however, that could be directly a water problem and can discriminate on wealth rather than skin color.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 09, 2026, 02:39 PMA country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere.

The empty homes are not an illusion.




RE

EXCELLENT article on the slow motion disaster of "gee what climate change?" below Boulder Dam.

https://www.worldatlas.com/lakes/what-happens-if-lake-powell-and-lake-mead-both-fail.html

Quote from: RE on Aug 09, 2026, 09:43 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 09, 2026, 02:39 PMA country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere.

The empty homes are not an illusion.

Never said they were. Said that COUNTRY LEVEL depopulation has been happening for more than a decade in a fully industrialized country and it sure ain't anything like what has been claimed of "collapse".

Why cheapen the very idea of collapse? I get it you've been waiting like at least 2 decades for something to happen, and there are some good indications of potential floating around, but latching onto a loser like this one?

Just....waiting so long to scratch that itch that you take any bait offered?

As I have said many times, Collapse is a process, not an event.  Population is just one of the indicators.  Like a ball rolling over a hill, it slows as it reaches the top and then begins to pick up speed as it begins its downward journey.   Globally, we are just about at the top of the hill and just beginning the trip down.  The speed of depopulation will pick up as we move along the path.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 11, 2026, 05:14 AMAs I have said many times, Collapse is a process, not an event.

Yes, you have said that. And others have DEFINED what collapse is.....a quantifiable part of that process being species population decline. So....we are still waiting around for the process to be officially kicked off. "Species" <> "Country".

Quote from: REPopulation is just one of the indicators.

But one that, as a signal of collapse, is defined, and would be undeniable. As compared to the relative, insignificant and imagined ones invented on the internet. I don't know WHY those who, for some reason, REALLY REALLY want to say it is happening. Jim Jones and Ugo snd Gail and Catton demonstrate this regularly. Not so much anymore, and with a far smaller audience is my bet.

Didn't you once mention on your WordPress blog you were looking for the big bucks out of Doom and a following to provide it? Based on? Pitching collapse concepts, solutions, parts near Inman showing how the Amish live because the world was going to be there soon? SUN was founded with that idea. Concepts are nice. Collapse reality is something else. If it HAD been happening, when you were attempting to monetize it, by the definition of what collapse is as I've discussed, they would be too busy trying to stay alive than hand you any spare change along the way. CFS.

Quote from: RELike a ball rolling over a hill, it slows as it reaches the top and then begins to pick up speed as it begins its downward journey. 

I'll take than analogy. The ball certainly decelerates as it reaches the top of a hill, baring any outside influence. That happened on 1970 on Earth Day, when obviously the world was informed of the oncoming collapse. Global freezing, lack of food, hundreds of millions starving. Jimmy Carter validated oil collapse by announcing the world would run out by the end of the 80's. So...the question isn't whether or not the ball is decelerating, the question is how many more half centuries of happily rolling along can the ball do, as obviously far more influential and credentialed folks already demonstrated they didn't know dick about it. Effectively, all the internet did was allow every Tom, Dick and Harry to inexpertly chime in. Like....Jim Jones, Heaven's Gaters, and Koresch. Doomers all, with slightly different angles.

Bad things happening, which have been happening since the dawn of time, might reach collapse. Given enough time, of COURSE collapse will happen. After all, the Sun is getting 40 million tons a second lighter! We are CERTAINLY doomed. But that is hard to monetize, even being a scientific fact.

Quote from: REGlobally, we are just about at the top of the hill and just beginning the trip down.  The speed of depopulation will pick up as we move along the path.

RE

You only mentioned speed of the ball. How about its velocity? The ball isn't going up the hill linearly, it is spiraling around the hill, on a generally upward trajectory. Every time you look to the top of the hill, you can see it, right there! But then the ball travels laterally along a cone shaped hill, moving dozens of feet for every inch higher in elevation.

Which is why everyone and their grandmother who claims the end if nigh if looking 88 degrees off the plane of balls forward motion, to a place where they will never see because the ball has to circle to hill another 1000 times before it gets there.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 11, 2026, 10:26 AMYou only mentioned speed of the ball. How about its velocity? The ball isn't going up the hill linearly, it is spiraling around the hill, on a generally upward trajectory. Every time you look to the top of the hill, you can see it, right there! But then the ball travels laterally along a cone shaped hill, moving dozens of feet for every inch higher in elevation.

First of all, Speed and Velocity are synonymous, although V is a vector quantity with a direction.  2nd, absent any outside force besides Gravity, the ball travels straight up or down the hill, it doesn't spiral.  Third. the velocity increases due to the force of gravity accelerating it down the hill.

Your understanding of Newtonian Mechanics is pathetic.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 11, 2026, 12:05 PMFirst of all, Speed and Velocity are synonymous, although V is a vector quantity with a direction. teach th

Maybe they don't teach the basics of speed and velocity to idiots in modern high schools, but they aren't synonymous to non-idiots any more than someone like K-Dog would confuse amps and watts. 

Ergo....I knew EXACTLY what I said, and obviously revealed it by providing a directional component to that ball climbing a hill....

Quote from: RE2nd, absent any outside force besides Gravity, the ball travels straight up or down the hill, it doesn't spiral.

Good thing I provided a mental image of how it COULD work to negate your particular example, regardless of the how. And it is even a BETTER example than yours....because as an analogy it fits the history of doom proclamations that don't happen, yet everyone seems to think they are X time away...and then a decade after X time has passed, folks claim it all over again!

Thanks for not mentioning anything about how obvious this rinse, recycle and repeat cycle is. It means you know you don't have a way around the obvious history of doom. Be it from Catton, Ehrlich, or everyone in the modern internet age.

Quote from: REThird. the velocity increases due to the force of gravity accelerating it down the hill.

I wasn't discussing going down the hill. That is your interest, and the thing that hasn't happened (but HOPE abounds!). And all of those who came before you....the ball has reached the top of the hill....DOOM!!!  And then a decade later presto...rinse, recycle, repeat...how in the heck did Newtonian Mechanics get me back up the hill! Again!

Quote from: REYour understanding of Newtonian Mechanics is pathetic.
RE

And your ability to counter the underlying thought of rinse, recycle and repeat is worse.

I've mentioned it before, your perspective has been around for a millennium. What is it they say about history? Learn some or be doomed to repeat it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypticism

Newtonian Mechanics to combat a thought experiment....while avoiding the actual point. Which is factual, and therefore impossible to refute.

QuoteBut one that, as a signal of collapse, is defined, and would be undeniable. As compared to the relative, insignificant and imagined ones invented on the internet. I don't know WHY those who, for some reason, REALLY REALLY want to say it is happening. Jim Jones and Ugo snd Gail and Catton demonstrate this regularly. Not so much anymore, and with a far smaller audience is my bet.

No, consider the black death in Europe's middle ages.  A lot of people died but the continuity of civilization continued so you can't call it collapse.

The problem is that your thinking is logically flawed.  Collapse is when something existing (civilization) ceases to exist.  Collapse is the absence of what was.  Attempting to define something that does not exist is a logical can of worms.  Collapse does not exist.  Collapse is when something existing ceases to exist, and defining what that something is means different things to different people.  There is a threshold problem.  Different strokes for different folks.  Our criteria varies.

Defining a state of non-existence using the vocabulary of existence is not so easy to do.