In my time working at retail banking as a personal banker in London it was my experience that most people getting mortgages were NOT 25 or under. It was mostly people in the 30 plus range. In this group I include people buying their first starter homes.

Of the people who did get mortgages early (people in their 20s) they often go a lot of support from their parents on the deposit. In fact it is often said that when it comes to mortgages one of the biggest providers in the UK is the bank of "mum and dad". In other words the reason get ahead isn't so much about being entrepreneurial spirit but just picking the right parents at birth. Any person who had no support and still managed to make a purchase in their 20s usually had a good story on how they got their wealth so quickly. But those were the exceptional people and were not the norm.

Whilst my experiences are from London I don't think there is a reason to believe these experiences are atypical and I bet a similar dynamic would be found in California.

We hear about the stories of the young kids getting mortgages because the stories are exceptional and news worthy. But they are the exceptions and not the norm. The reality is less people are able to afford buying a house with or without a mortgage and this is an indicator that there is a decline in the middle class. Buying a house is a middle class activity, you don't see the working class do it as often.

EDIT

Just found this timely article on The Guardian which describes the hotel of "mum and dad" (new term to me) being busier than ever before. The hotel of mum and dad is alluding to the fact that a fifth 24-34 year olds in Britain are living with their parents so you see mum and dad are increasingly taking on the roles of banking and hotels for these children and society in general:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/11/hotel-of-mum-and-dad-in-uk-at-its-fullest-in-two-decades-study-finds

It is a sign of our times this is happening and to simply blame it on the youth today being lazy is ironically a lazy response that fails to consider the prevailing economic conditions we live in.

That is Tdos SAD (statistically anomalous daughter), the motorcycle racing, 6 figure salary ultra motivated super model  MMA champion who he whips out every time he wants to show that all the statistics about Gen Z are wrong and they're actually doing just great like his Super Daughter.



Of course, he also knows I made his incessant bragging about his super successful kids against the rules, so he's going back in the cooler...again.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 10, 2025, 04:10 PM

Quote from: Surly1 on Jan 09, 2025, 03:06 PMIt is already all but impossible for younger generations to purchase a home.

I am just watching out for a standard representation that occurs often online, which is representing the exception as the norm, when in fact it might just be...."more often than it used to be".

QuoteThe boy could as well, but is choosing not to.

And I could bone Taylor Swift, but I choose not to.

Quote from: Surly1 on Jan 09, 2025, 03:06 PMIt is already all but impossible for younger generations to purchase a home.

Can you quantify "all but"? My daughter did it in the most expensive non-coastal city in the US by the age of 25. The boy could as well, but is choosing not to. I work with quite a few reasonably young people, say 24-29, generally well educated, and more than a few of them own homes. I oresume others will get them after they settle in at work.

By no means do these folks represent "younger generations" at large as they went to college, didn't get degrees in basket weaving, and then went job hunting. But if "all but impossible" just means "those who can't be bothered to want to do anything with themselves other than McDonalds" that is different. Are there stats on what constitutes "all but impossible" to you?

I am just watching out for a standard representation that occurs often online, which is representing the exception as the norm, when in fact it might just be...."more often than it used to be".

Billionaires are like the Borg.  Resistance is Futile.  I have a better idea.

EAT THE RICH

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/10/climate-crisis-billionaire-class

To resist the climate crisis, we must resist the billionaire class

RE

You can't even make the "there have always been [fill in disaster]" argument you get with hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes & floods.  9 or the 10 largest firestorms in SoCal history have all occured in the last decade.  It's worse, happening more often and getting worser.

Far as insurance goes, it's the same problem you have with dental insurance and why it doesn't work.  Nearly everyone gets tooth decay and needs dental work regularly, so you can't spread out the risk over a population.  Today, if you live in LA fora decade, it's almost certain a firestorm will hit your neighborhood at some point.  Most mortgages are 30 years, so chances are the house burns before it's even paid off.  Your premium has to be close to the cost of the mortgage itself.

There are only 2 ways to live there now, which is either you are rich enough to be able to afford rebuilding yourself, or use the old Japanese solution which was to build cheap structures out f paper and wood that could burn and be rebuilt in a matter of days.  Of course, modern building codes don't allow for that.

Given how widespread the devastation is, it's hard to imagine how they are going to rebuild n any reasonable timeframe.  There aren't enough contractors and construction workers to build that many houses all at the same time, even if they try importing them in from all over the country.  Particularly not fancy individual mansions that are custom architectural plans.  Maybe if they do modular construction and factory built housing, but what celebrity would want one of those?

Hollywood was already having trouble keeping production in that neighborhood due to the tax structure and cost of living for the support personnel.  This may very well be the end of Hollywood as the global movie capitol of the world.  Which would also mean an enormous hit to CA tax revenue since it's a major industry there.

The effects of this conflagration are going to be felt for a long time.  I don't think they'll ever recover.  LA is going to be like Detroit after the auto industry left.

RE

As the refrain from an old Steely Dan song goes, "Here come those Santa Ana winds again..."

These seasonal Santa Ana winds and drought have combined to turn the LA fires into monstrous blowtorches swallowing houses and commercial buildings in minutes. Normally peaking at 50-60 mph, the winds are now gusting over 100 miles per hour, accelerating the fires to points not seen before. 10,000 structures burned, at least 10 dead, and 200,000+ people displaced.

From the photographs, Malibu looks like Hiroshima or Dresden. Nobody of good faith can argue that this is not a climate change inflected disaster of the first order. Unfortunately, the woods are full of people not of good faith.

Quote from: RE on Jan 09, 2025, 08:00 PMReality isn't important, just image and opinion.  The truth is a lie and crime pays as we come to the closing days of the Age of l


I'm reminded of an old Soviet Russian axiom: "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us."

Yes, that old joke from the Soviet Union came to mind for me as well.

Nice to have you back reading and writing too.

RE
[/quote]

At this age and condition I'm happy to be anywhere.

Quote from: Surly1 on Jan 09, 2025, 02:59 PM

Quote from: RE on Jan 07, 2025, 06:42 PMFake jobs with fake employees with fake layoffs and fake unemployment numbers and fake participation rates in the fake workforce.  Fake reporters for fake websites reporting the fake statistics to a public faking they can read.  I fake that I give a shit.  lol.

Reality isn't important, just image and opinion.  The truth is a lie and crime pays as we come to the closing days of the Age of Oil.

RE

I've been reading your work since, what, 2008–9? The above statement may be the truest thing you've ever written.

I'm reminded of an old Soviet Russian axiom: "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us."

Yes, that old joke from the Soviet Union came to mind for me as well.

Nice to have you back reading and writing too.

RE

I hope it keeps raining here.




California's insurance is in crisis. The solution will cost homeowners a ton.