I saw your post. Nice. I don't think they have the smarts to project with the same accuracy as your answers. Most probably would rather stay in their own niche. Great questions. I really hope you check in there occasionally and shake things up a bit.

I post occasionally or comment but not much. I mainly scan them for new info. I just thought I noticed it has evolved into a more realistic understanding that this extinction event is occurring now, and the focus is on "how are going to handle this", because the future is coming fast.

Did you hear that China is putting a salary cap at about $500,000? I have been saying that ( exact amount ) for about 20 years. Ha! 

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/china-to-set-annual-salary-cap-on-finance-sector-amid-common-prosperity-push-sources-say/ar-BB1pnYh3

I answered your post:

Bob1Carol2
•
1m ago
I have thought that in about 15 years the will to survive past say 60 years old might become so difficult that we will make policies that make it legal to obtain an effective and painless way to "check out"
 ( a pill ). With everything collapsing, and very little "contentment" left, the option would eliminate millions of people that have had enough. Maybe even lower the age to 50.

Quote from: RE on Jul 05, 2024, 06:26 AM

Quote from: Knarf on Jul 05, 2024, 03:52 AMThis is a pretty sane conversation on Reddit. Some realistic vision. See what you all think the "Reddit" crowd is thinking about the 6th Mass Extinction.

It's nice to know there is some decent discussion going on at r/collapse, however my history with the moderators there makes it impossible to participate on that forum.  I could of course use a new screen ID, but I'd eventually get in an argument with one of them and get banned again.  Do you post there at all?

RE

OK, I dropped on a reply using a different email address.  They apparently automatically assign screen IDs now.  I am Clean Lettuce 5499.



As numerous redditors point out, collapse is already here, so avoiding it is no longer possible. Now the relevant questions are:

1-How fast will it progress?

2-What percentage of the population will be eliminated before it hits bottom and some kind of recovery becomes possible, or will it progress steadily to a Near Tern Human Extinction (NTHE)?

3-How far down the technological ladder will we regress before it stabilizes, if it stabilizes?

4-Is there any means to slow down the progress of collapse and/or affect the final population knockdown percentage to leave a greater number of people alive and the survivors at a higher standard of living?

5-Are there any effective strategies the individual can pursue to maximize their own chance to live out a normal lifespan?

6-Are there social and/or political strategies that should be implemented to improve the possible outcome in terms of number of people or standard of living as the collapse progresses.


There are I am sure other questions you could come up with, but these are the main ones to deal with first. Each question has both long and short answers possible and more than one possible correct answer. There are also interrelationships that make different outcomes possible. I'll just give short answers right now with what looks like the highest probability to each question.

1- Pretty fast, on the civilization scale, Within a couple of generations total global population will be reduced by half or more. Most of the remaining population will at best have an 18th century level of technology and standard of living. A small number of elite may retain access to electricity and some modern technology.

2- Hitting bottom will take a relatively long time and there may be plateaus along the way down. Eventually total population of Homo Sapiens will drop by 1-3 orders of magnitude before it stabilizes with a chance to rebound. That means a remaining population of between 8 to 800 million meat packages ambulatory at the same time.

3- Over the long term, Paleolithic level. Nearer term, 19th century technology can be retained.

4- Absolutely. It will depend very much on whether active policies are engaged to combat the emerging problems and what those policies are. Some of them may be policies people currently find repulsive. A simple example from Sci-Fi would be Soylent Green factories producing food from dead people. Another would be purposeful introduction of a virus to selectively eliminate portions of the population. Withholding medical care from the old and premature infants. Wars will definitely factor in to how many are left. Generally, policies which favor cooperation and working for the common good would enhance the number of survivors. Eliminating a larger number of people would enhance the standard of living those left alive would enjoy. Do the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or does the comfort of the few outweigh the needs of the many?

5-Definitely. Live in a low population zone with good natural resources, at least 10 meters above sea level. Stay in good physical condition and health. Make friends and plan for emergency situations such as civil war or food rationing.

6-Nothing through normal political channels will work. Only revolution will get rid of the current systems that are the cause of the problems.


RE

Quote from: Knarf on Jul 05, 2024, 03:52 AMThis is a pretty sane conversation on Reddit. Some realistic vision. See what you all think the "Reddit" crowd is thinking about the 6th Mass Extinction.

It's nice to know there is some decent discussion going on at r/collapse, however my history with the moderators there makes it impossible to participate on that forum.  I could of course use a new screen ID, but I'd eventually get in an argument with one of them and get banned again.  Do you post there at all?

RE

Good catch. The energy wars will really get going now. Climate disasters plus, data centers are going to be fighting for energy. Scarcity in so many sectors now will also bring things to a boil. Fun times.

"Joe's Gotta Go". New cheer "Joe's Gotta Go!", everybody "Joe's Gotta Go!", Jill will not like that. And who is Kamala?

I think there will be a new dark horse to appear. No one knows her yet, but she will rise amidst this climate fog, and will see her as the new world emperor! Ha! Clusterfuck is more like it. Britain just went pro-Israel. So more colonialism policies and the wealth gap continues to increase right in front of the masses who are fighting for the crumbs now...just wait till Trump gets in. What if Trump has a melt down, and turns human. His hair turns brown and he he initiates a UBI, and a four day work week. Takes care of the taxes by making a Maximum yearly wage at $500,000 to be taxed 70-80%. No one makes less than $50,000 tax 0%. Pipe Dream.

Yep a Clusterfuck is what the next 50 years will be, beginning today.

"Not 100%, but maybe something like 80-90%.

Reasons: our agricultural, industrial, and energy systems took centuries to develop, there is no physical way they can withstand climate change and resource depletion while supporting the current world population, and attempts to reform these systems have generally hovered somewhere between "non-existent" to "ineffective to the point of barely being able to keep up with demand growth".

There is no plan to change these systems in time, no political will to do it even if we had a plan, and no reasonable, rational, evidence-based reason to think that it will magically be "OK" if we simply do our best.

Admitting this fact isn't nihilism, it's simply realism.

Now for the big question:

"No, to what extent do you think average individuals (if there even is such a thing) are not powerless, and still have agency to be part of the solution? And what does this practically look like for you?"

Yes, there is something the average individual can do: join, start, or ally oneself with any movement that has the aim of overturning capitalism.

That's it.

Ending capitalism globally and replacing it with any system that puts the survival of civilization first, not as a leftover after the shareholders have eaten from the trough, is the only way we might (and even then it would be a miracle) be able to change course.

We're not getting out by shopping at Whole Foods.

We're not getting out by putting solar panels on your roof.

We're not getting out by listening to people like Schmachtenberger intellectualize our way out of the need for revolution.

It's revolution or collapse.

And since revolution likely isn't going to happen, it's collapse."

https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dv5lxg/do_you_think_collapse_is_100_unavoidable/

This is a pretty sane conversation on Reddit. Some realistic vision. See what you all think the "Reddit" crowd is thinking about the 6th Mass Extinction.

I liked it.  Nice rant.  Lives on hold because money is sucked up by an affluent few and everything costs money.  Lives on hold and nobody seems to care.

Blowing off some steam about the Affordable Housing Clusterfuck.   


RE

Quote from: RE on Jul 04, 2024, 01:11 AMCloser to 95, since the Great Depression didn't start until around 1930.  The stock market crashed in 1929, but the Depression took a little while to really get rolling.  Also, just because none have been as bad since doesn't mean this one won't be WORSE than the GD.  There was tons of oil in the ground ready to dig up and do a reboot after WWII.  This time, after WWIII finishes, nothing left to kick start with.  An endless, eternal Depression, and Age of Darkness. The Grapes of Wrath will seem like a Picnic by comparison.

https://finbold.com/brace-for-the-worst-recession-in-100-years-warns-wall-street-expert/

RE

That article was written from the point of view of this is what we want to say so lets cherry pick.  A serious reader will spot the bullshit.  But the author does not care about serious readers any more than the blunderbuss of Nigerian email scams do.  It is all about volume and hooking a fish.  The author starts with

Quoteinterest rates – which usually decelerate economic activity – have remained high for far longer than expected.

But:

The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023. In 2024 so mortgage rates have been hovering close to the 7% mark.  In the '80s, the interest rate was 13%!" Mortgage rates were 18.63% in October 1981.  Today's mortgage rates are on par with what homeowners have paid in the past.

This nimrod thinks the post-bailout economy is normal.

It is interesting the 'Shrinking Military' author accepts the selective service as a given.  But what do you expect from a major in the fucking army.  He is a gung-ho motherfucker.

I wonder if he knows 'the divine right of kings' is out of favor.  It is kinda a dumb idea now.  It was useful it its time to shut people up. Now people can't swallow that much bullshit at once.  People be half-educated now.

People who take empire as a given:  SUCK

All selective service records should be transferred to flash paper and someone should light a match.