Doomstead

(https://assets2.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/i/r/2026/01/23/23bbb199-adc8-4258-847f-24334f063404/thumbnail/620x345/8c08fb108dda555caa410ceb337d03c5/weekend-storm-model.jpg)

Not an official name, the Weather Channel named it.  Since Trumpolini pretty much gutted the NOAA anyhow, the weather bizness is now privatized anyway.

Anyhow, looks to be a really good one for people to check out their Disaster Unpreparedness.  Ice will be bringing down power lines with copious loss of power and heat.  FEMA also has been gutted, so quite a few people will definitely die.

Blockbuster storm starts spreading snow, ice across the US with devastating impacts to come

https://www.cnn.com/weather/live-news/winter-storm-forecast-snow-ice-01-24-26-climate

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 24, 2026, 05:03 AM(https://assets2.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/i/r/2026/01/23/23bbb199-adc8-4258-847f-24334f063404/thumbnail/620x345/8c08fb108dda555caa410ceb337d03c5/weekend-storm-model.jpg)

Anyhow, looks to be a really good one for people to check out their Disaster Unpreparedness.
RE

The map shows us getting snow. The kid used the leaf blower to blow it all elsewhere. Cold though. Talked to some folks back East, they are being told a foot or so.

Amateur hour compared to what it was like when I lived in Edmonton. Americans have grown soft over the years it seems like. Scared out of their underpants when someone says "BOO!!!" seems like.

Impacts vary of course, but the size and scope of this one makes it quite notable.  Also the very widespread band of ice fall which causes far more havoc than typical snow fall.  Brings down the power lines.  Combine this with the escalating violence due to the ICE immigration crackdown you have a nice recipe for mayhem.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 24, 2026, 01:22 PMImpacts vary of course, but the size and scope of this one makes it quite notable.

It is a biggy. Locally we're just seeing some quite low winter temperatures, like 0-5F. In other words, +35F higher than temperatures I used to work outside in, in northern Saskatchewan. Convinced me to get out of the drilling wells gig and get into an office.

Quote from: REAlso the very widespread band of ice fall which causes far more havoc than typical snow fall.  Brings down the power lines.  Combine this with the escalating violence due to the ICE immigration crackdown you have a nice recipe for mayhem.

RE

We've seen ice storms before, knocking out powerlines. Strikes me that the deeper into the south you get the less prepared folks are for the cold and the more likely that systems crap out and people get cranky about the consequences of real winter stuff showing up.

As predicted, the national electric grid is getting stressed out by the ice accumulation and broad swath of cold weather driving the demand up to record levels.  How long will the outages persist and how many users will be without heat?  How many will die?  What's the over-under?

RE

POLITICO.COM • 2026-01-25

Winter storm tests US electric grid as outages spread (https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/25/winter-storm-electric-grid-overdrive-00745690)

The winter storm that stretched across half the country knocked out electricity to more than a million customers on Sunday, sending utilities scrambling to restore power ahead of sub-freezing temperatures.

Quote from: RE on Jan 25, 2026, 06:19 PMAs predicted, the national electric grid is getting stressed out by the ice accumulation and broad swath of cold weather driving the demand up to record levels.  How long will the outages persist and how many users will be without heat?  How many will die?  What's the over-under?

RE

???  It's.... a storm. I'm betting that right now...in the farthest reaches between Fort Nelson and Whitehorse....the ice machines still work.

My guess on the deathcount is..... 15 people slipping and falling on ice, 22 dying in car accidents, no one will freeze to death, a couple houses will burn down because people are using kerosene heaters and space heaters where they normally wouldn't and aren't smart enough to keep the heat sources away from curtains or other flammables, and some other silly stuff like falling on ice or running off the road into a creek and drowning.

You forgot the people who die from CO inhalation due to lack of ventilation.  Also if it goes more than a week, probably a few old folks living alone will die from hypothermia.  Then there are the people who are electrocuted by downed power lines and the ones who fall while cutting down trees and fixing roofs.  Add the middle age fat guys who die from heart attacks shoveling snow.

On the average day, 120 people die in car accidents.  Hard to say what it is during this time, since on the one hand conditions make it more dangerous, but on the other fewer people are out driving.  However, after the event finishes, patches of black ice left over are extra dangerous.  Overall, I'd guess it averages 150/day for a week.

All together, I'd guess at least 100.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 25, 2026, 10:47 PMYou forgot the people who die from CO inhalation due to lack of ventilation.  Also if it goes more than a week, probably a few old folks living alone will die from hypothermia.  Then there are the people who are electrocuted by downed power lines and the ones who fall while cutting down trees and fixing roofs.  Add the middle age fat guys who die from heart attacks shoveling snow.

All of these are pretty normal ways for folks to die during winter in general is my bet. No surprise that the winters largest storm exacerbates it all. Back in "the day" folks heating their trailers with those kerosene heaters like my family did ended with one or two of those trailers each winter catching fire, and occasionally taking out a sleeping senior citizen with it. Such was life in the holler. Don't imagine it has changed all that much.

Quote from: REOn the average day, 120 people die in car accidents.  Hard to say what it is during this time, since on the one hand conditions make it more dangerous, but on the other fewer people are out driving.  However, after the event finishes, patches of black ice left over are extra dangerous.  Overall, I'd guess it averages 150/day for a week.

All together, I'd guess at least 100.

RE

It is a big storm. Does anyone make official counts after the fact for the various causes of death and tally it anywhere to test your estimates?

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 26, 2026, 04:26 PMIt is a big storm. Does anyone make official counts after the fact for the various causes of death and tally it anywhere to test your estimates?

Not AFAIK.  It would be pretty hard to do.

RE

(https://fictionhorizon.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/52_2717_post_media_R7Fg.jpg)

Hypothermia cases starting to roll in.

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/more-nyers-found-dead-during-extreme-cold-mamdani/

More NYers found dead during extreme cold: Mamdani

RE

Up to dozens now.

As predicted: Hypothermia from exposure to the cold, car accidents, snowplow accidents, sledding accidents and sudden cardiac emergencies linked to shoveling snow were among the causes of death reported so far.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/winter-storm-extreme-cold-deaths/

Dozens confirmed dead as extreme cold continues to grip large part of U.S.

RE

APNEWS.COM • 2026-01-29

Worries deepen in US South after days of grappling with snow, ice and widespread outages (https://apnews.com/article/frigid-temperatures-arctic-air-us-south-tennessee-61cd5b29f15322cc4dcae374d7b78c7e)

Now up to 70 corpses

Quote from: RE on Jan 29, 2026, 12:04 PM

(https://chasingthesquirrel.com/weblinks/2026/01/29/639490304.jpg)

APNEWS.COM • 2026-01-29

Worries deepen in US South after days of grappling with snow, ice and widespread outages (https://apnews.com/article/frigid-temperatures-arctic-air-us-south-tennessee-61cd5b29f15322cc4dcae374d7b78c7e)

Now up to 70 corpses

Last years big winter storm was 100.

In 1922 "The Knickerbocker Storm" killed 98 people from just the roof of a building collapsing. The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 got at least 160. And this is my homeland, I always thought we would do fine in storms being more self sufficient than most. I was around for the Blizzard of 78, that got 100 people. The Storm of the Century in 1993? 318 people. The Blizard of 2003 was pipsqueak comed to all of these. Snowmageddon in 2010 was just a nice storm locally, I'm got some good pictures of the kids digging out the Hummer in that one.

106 folks in 2022. I talked to some folks back east today, and they are still having trouble with the after effects.

S0 100 seems like a good high quality deadly winter storm, but you might need 300 to get it into "bigger and baddest" category. Certainly nothing even remotely "doom of America!" worthy.

Oh, snowstorms aren't doom, just doom practice.

Actually, winter is one thing industrial civilization improved in terms of survivability.  Lots more people died in winter in preindustrial times.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 29, 2026, 04:26 PMOh, snowstorms aren't doom, just doom practice.

For J6P maybe. "OMG!!!!! I MIGHT RUN OUT OF BEER IF THE ROADS ARE CLOSED!

It is unfortunate that a relatively simple event....a bunch of snow....kills so many people just...because. Doom practice involves.....roving bands of MZBs, gunfire of some sort, small communities being overrun, and those that defend themselves successfully from said MZBs. Survivalists in general are probably okay, short of the roving bands of MZBs anyway. Certainly some kind of practice....I was poaching one fall after a snow that would cause trouble for not just people but animals, the snow made me quiet, white everywhere meant brown blobs of whitetails could be spotted easily against a white background and I happened to have been in my prime as La Longue Carabine. Didn't need it though. I got within 20' of the first without any of them (it was a herd, all others concealed behind leftover trees tops from a year or two past lodging) knowing I was there, and La Longue Carabine just WISHED for a fast firing 30-06 like I had that day.

I think those 3 whitetails were the last I ever filled the freezer with, the winter before I left for college.

Snowstorms are mostly snowstorms. They are only practice doom for those so unprepared they don't know food even exists outside of grocery stores. Or they make a mistake. Mistakes in cold weather, like being unprepared on even little things that normally wouldn't matter, can certainly be deadly events to the individuals who make them. A nice tightly sealed house...and a malfunctioning kerosene heater would do the trick. 
 

Quote from: REActually, winter is one thing industrial civilization improved in terms of survivability.  Lots more people died in winter in preindustrial times.

RE

I can buy that. But back then, the common flu was probably something that killed many, polio, small pox...that was a GOOD one for pre-industrial times. I wonder who wins that dieoff scorecard, small pox versus winter storms...throw in hurricanes even.....my bet would still be on smallpox. That managed to decimate entire populations.

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 29, 2026, 05:47 PMI can buy that. But back then, the common flu was probably something that killed many, polio, small pox...that was a GOOD one for pre-industrial times. I wonder who wins that dieoff scorecard, small pox versus winter storms...throw in hurricanes even.....my bet would still be on smallpox. That managed to decimate entire populations.

Oh no doubt, disease was a big killer in preindustrial era, but it got way worse at the beginning as populations moved from rural to city living to work in factories.  Poor sanitation and high density led to epidemics in the cities.  Rural populations usually were spared.  It wasn't until the late 1800s when microbes were identified and antibiotics discovered that got turned around.

Women dying in childbirth also a big killer in the old days, and common infections from injuries. That got worse with industrial accidents, as well as death by fire in factories.  That has improved but remains a problem in countries with low safety regulations where capitalists exploit the cheap labor.

Let's not forget the BIGGEST killer of them all in the industrial era, car accidents.

Car accidents are a major, leading cause of death both in the United States and worldwide. With over 40,000 traffic fatalities in the U.S. annually (roughly one every 13 minutes) and over 1 million globally, they are a significant public health crisis
. They are the leading cause of death for children and young adults (ages 5–29) globally and for individuals aged 1 to 54 in the U.S.

(https://media.abc10.com/assets/KXTV/images/fb5bc8b7-0f14-4483-915c-0c6325ea9e0a/20240515T010040/fb5bc8b7-0f14-4483-915c-0c6325ea9e0a_1140x641.jpg)

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 29, 2026, 11:58 PMLet's not forget the BIGGEST killer of them all in the industrial era, car accidents.

Car accidents are a major, leading cause of death both in the United States and worldwide. With over 40,000 traffic fatalities in the U.S. annually (roughly one every 13 minutes) and over 1 million globally, they are a significant public health crisis
. They are the leading cause of death for children and young adults (ages 5–29) globally and for individuals aged 1 to 54 in the U.S.

(https://media.abc10.com/assets/KXTV/images/fb5bc8b7-0f14-4483-915c-0c6325ea9e0a/20240515T010040/fb5bc8b7-0f14-4483-915c-0c6325ea9e0a_1140x641.jpg)

RE

Certainly a huge cause of death, industrial era specific, but this one is often related to simple dumbassery, general incompetence, occasional equipment failures. Think.....chainsaw accidents....except at high speed.

But real collapse won't be involving car accidents, maybe horse and buggy accidents, bicycle accidents, punji stick and claymore accidents/fatalities as landowners defend themselves from roving bands of MZBs and whatnot.

Once your definition of collapse shows up, seems like the opportunity for continued large number of cager accidents will be the least of most folks concerns.

Looks like good cross country skiing conditions in Central Park next week.😎

RE