Doomstead

Quote from: RE on Feb 28, 2026, 12:18 AM

CNN.COM • 2026-02-28

US and Israel carrying out strikes against Iran

• Explosions have been reported in multiple Iranian cities including the capital Tehran after Israel and the United States launched strikes Saturday morning.  • US President Donald Trump described the military campaign as “massive and ongoing,” and intended to prevent Iran from putting US lives at risk. He said Iran had been working to rebuild its nuclear program after a June US bombing run on its nuclear facilities.

EZ way to start the war without going to CONgress.  All Trumpolini has to do is sic the Israeli Attack Dog on Iran with a phone call.  They are always happy to oblige and target a few more Towel Head schools and hospitals.

What kind of response will the Ayatollah come up with?  How long will this one go on?  How high can they drive up the price of oil?

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 28, 2026, 12:18 AMHow high can they drive up the price of oil?

Good question. Personal answer? WHO CARES!!!! EVs FOR EVERYONE!

15k at almost the first anniversary of el cheapo EV. Two tire rotations (free) , and perhaps half a gallon of windshield washing fluid ($2).

Down with oil! GO EV!

Even as sarcasm, that was an astoundingly stupid post.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 28, 2026, 11:08 AMEven as sarcasm, that was an astoundingly stupid post.

RE

When in Rome....

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 28, 2026, 06:07 PMWhen in Rome....

...you rape & pillage.  They didn't have internet forums back then, so if you wanted to be astoundingly stupid, you had to do it live and in person, not anonymously in cyberspace.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 28, 2026, 09:42 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 28, 2026, 06:07 PMWhen in Rome....

...you rape & pillage.  They didn't have internet forums back then, so if you wanted to be astoundingly stupid, you had to do it live and in person, not anonymously in cyberspace.

RE

Anonymously?

Having been the one who used said internet to track me and my movements to various conferences, deduced my identity through  cross refencing conference lists, and then began passing around that name and related published work to forum moderators for commentary, suddenly now I am anonymous?

What, in your advancing years did you suddenly forget what you discovered back then?

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 01, 2026, 12:43 PMWhat, in your advancing years did you suddenly forget what you discovered back then?

You never confirmed it.  You remain anonymous until you admit who you really are.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 01, 2026, 08:41 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 01, 2026, 12:43 PMWhat, in your advancing years did you suddenly forget what you discovered back then?

You never confirmed it.  You remain anonymous until you admit who you really are.

RE

Why would I? After all, you took Haniels information and searched Linkedin!  I asked Haniel about you, when you put my name out there, about your reliability, character, etc etc. If you would keep your word.

If in fessing up would deliver the benefit you claimed in the moment.

After that conversation it was an easy choice on my part. I leave you to rely on your brilliant intellect. Having found who I was by my Linked In profile.

 

Not my problem.  You are still anonymous until you confirm your identity.

RE

This AI stuff is wild. I tried looking people up, like Art "There is No Significant Oil In US Shale" and it did a reasonable job of being...polite. Lacked detail though, particular when he hosed things up. So I looked up myself and that was interesting as well, it found more by just making a small change, but it reasonably quantified and described published works, area of expertise, and contributions to science and whatnot. More than I expected it to know. I've used it for some coding recently, and that was less effective, but still I learned from some of what it laid out.

Not sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.

It knew that David White at the USGS was predicting peak oils as far back as 1919. That isn't a well known one, but it knew. I'll have to poke around on deep research issues and see if it knows that, then ask it to explain why so many folks got it wrong spanning a century and see if it figures out the trick in the question.

It has already made a mistake on hydraulic fracturing, claiming Hubbert didn't know about it in 1956, which he certainly did. It didn't seem to know the timing of when horizontal drilling began either, assigning to a post 1970 time frame as to why Hubbert was wrong.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 11, 2026, 07:29 PMNot sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.
.

That's your prerogative.  The rest of us here find it reasonable though, so for the purposes of Diner discussion, that's what we'll use.  Better than ice making in any event.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 11, 2026, 08:14 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 11, 2026, 07:29 PMNot sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.
.

That's your prerogative.  The rest of us here find it reasonable though, so for the purposes of Diner discussion, that's what we'll use.  Better than ice making in any event.

RE

Ice making is quite simple and requires no voluminous verbiage that is the equivalent of "all these things might happen and things could be puttering along with no real consequence".

Most doomers down through the decades always attached cool side effects, all the way back through Ehrlich at the least. Even you speculated on actual consequences beyond what AI provided more than 15 years ago on peakoil.com.

WHy? Because the atraction of doom isn't in socialital simplifcation and other bland discriptions. Without MZBs AI collapse just becomes....Jimmy Carter's malaise.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 12, 2026, 04:36 AMIce making is quite simple and requires no voluminous verbiage that is the equivalent of "all these things might happen and things could be puttering along with no real consequence".

I'd hardly call mass deportations and ICE Gestapo murdering citizens no real consequences.  Bombing Tehran back to the Stone Age is definitely consequential to the Iranians.  Oil tankers bottled up in the Persian Gulf has serious consequences for Chinese factories producing Iphones.

Far as outcomes go, it depends where you live how far along things are.  They are definitely further along in Havana and Caracas than NYC and LA of course.  Be a little patient.  It'll get here in due time.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 12, 2026, 09:54 AMI'd hardly call mass deportations and ICE Gestapo murdering citizens no real consequences.

I didn't say ridiculous politic theater isn't a real consequence. I would say it isn't collapse. How many students died at Kent State? Because of idiot law enforcement activities doesn't a collapse make.

Quote from: REBombing Tehran back to the Stone Age is definitely consequential to the Iranians.  Oil tankers bottled up in the Persian Gulf has serious consequences for Chinese factories producing Iphones.

I agree it is consequential. Like idiot mortgage lenders in 2008, except without bombs. Consequential isn't collapse.

Quote from: REFar as outcomes go, it depends where you live how far along things are.

I agree. If you happen to live in Gaza, you are pretty collapsed. If you lived in Wehrmacht Germany, you were collapsed. All the times Troy was destroyed, probably aexcellent collapse.

All local events, which certainly isn't "societal collapse" as in not just local events. You mentioned an event sometime in past, where geneticists had determined that the human species had been down to like 25,000 breeding pairs or something in the past? THAT I can go for as collapse. Local examples are just local examples, which have always been with us, somewhere in the world.

Quote from: REIt'll get here in due time.
RE

Indeed. The Sun is getting lighter by 40 million tons every second. We are absolutety doomed. But as I have said before, and appears to be far more accurate than all the other doom claims to date, you, and me and K-Dog, our personal dooms are far more likely to arrive before any species level collapse. So for us this is all just jawboning, unless someone is hiding some cool personal collapse story, no food to eat, no health care, our German cars need shipped somewhere to get fixed, no electricity for my EV, whatever.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 21, 2026, 12:13 PMDo you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

66.6% success rate.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 21, 2026, 02:13 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 21, 2026, 12:13 PMDo you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

66.6% success rate.

RE

On which topics? Peak oil, collapse, getting rich monetizing your websites and most recently the 3D printing stuff?

All topics.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 23, 2026, 06:01 PMTDoS - You have one warning.  I don't want to hear another peep out of you about peak oil for 1 week.

A challenge!!!

Quote from: K-DogThis thread is about an actual ongoing energy crisis, and is not about your whining never ending rant about peak oil definitions.  Which is really just a veiled way of pissing on the Diner.  You could at least find an appropriate topic to post in instead of venting your sociopathic affinity for the dark side here.

I accept the challenge!!

Higher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis, inflation causing them to suffer "always" crisis. You and I, spending 20K on heat pumps, us having some nice 4 wheeled hardware (mine doesn't even run on liquid fuels) are doing fine. And our taxes pay for RE to do what he does, I doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

Approproate topic to post on...okay...how about the varied types of Apocalyptians, those who suffer from a near religious belief in it regardless of facts, logic, science etc etc, and the reasons why?

Quote from: author=RE on Mar 23, 2026, 06:31 PMNor are facts always factual.

ha-ha <yawn>

AI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

I'll stick with the FACTS of a "fact" in this matter.

Your word games aren't near as clever as they used to be. You doing all right? I would love to come visit, but the wife is getting a little antsy about me wandering too far, I got sick twice last year that stuck around and were new experiences. Another trip to Prudhoe with a stop off in Anchorage would be great but I don't think she'd let me.

QuoteHigher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis,

I am not exactly what your point is.  Fact is Americans do not have enough on average to provide long term security for themselves.  Living in a tent at 80 is not where I want to be.  How much does the average American need to make sure that does not happen.  Whatever the number is most Americans don't have it.  Working part time makes that less likely.  It significantly plugs up the drain and tops off the tank.

The average retirement balance for a 65-year-old is roughly $609,000 in America, but the median is only $200,000.  A small percentage of Americans have millions, but the majority of Americans are far from having it made in the shade.  And health care can break an average American at any time.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:01 PMI doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:07 PMAI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

Tell that to Faux Newz,  MAGA, Climate Change Deniers, Trumpsky and everyone else who claims they have the facts.  With AI and Deep Fakes facts can be quite hard to ascertain.   Seeing is not always believing.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 24, 2026, 05:22 PM

QuoteHigher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis,

I am not exactly what your point is.

That an energy crisis, as related to energy costs, are different for those in the situation you, me and RE are in, versus perhaps J6P, or the poor, to whom a $400 unexpected expense, or suddenly their fuel bill doubling, is a crisis.

Quote from: K-DogFact is Americans do not have enough on average to provide long term security for themselves.

Could be a fact, sounds reasonable, but first you would need to define what "provide long term security for themselves" might mean. If it means, everyone with a solid job deep into life, saving along the way, and enough to cover medical expenses and mortgage/rent/food a car and utilities and whatnot until death, well....that would be nice. Social Security was supposed to help provide these circumstances. I'm betting that many Americans might not be able to provide all of these items until death, let alone pass along a few bucks to the kids.

Quote from: K-DogLiving in a tent at 80 is not where I want to be. 

Same here. Good thing you aren't living in a tent then. You planned well. Not all do.

Quote from: K-DogThe average retirement balance for a 65-year-old is roughly $609,000 in America, but the median is only $200,000.

I understand skewed distributions very well, and I have no answer for why some people do better, or worse. If it were a matter of simple brain power, RE would have monetized his first website and be dining with Brazos as a consultant as to how to take over the rest of the world right now. It isn't all about brains, sometimes it is, combined with other skills and talent, and sometimes just luck. Timing. I bought some gold back in the early 80's, dumbest investment ever but I was young and stupid and had a car to trade and it looked like the world was ending. Stagflation was a bitch, get gold! Began investing in 401k's back when they became legal. Always contributed. The wife will enjoy any lifestyle she likes when I croak and it has nothing to do with the PMs. 

Quote from: K-DogA small percentage of Americans have millions, but the majority of Americans are far from having it made in the shade.  And health care can break an average American at any time.

Health care can be a bitch. I can carry mine into retirement I beleive, but damned if I know for sure. Medicaid is taking good care of my mom when she is ill.

I'll stick with the Hunter Thompson approach if at all possible.

(https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-life-should-not-be-a-journey-to-the-grave-with-the-intention-of-arriving-safely-in-a-hunter-s-thompson-35-65-79.jpg)

Quote from: RE on Mar 24, 2026, 05:43 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:01 PMI doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

Interesting. Well, you have my condolences. But remind me, along the course of your life, how much did you think about the long term, the kind of investing K-Dog and I have done, the availability of 401k's while teaching and during your working years, was any of that a concern to a primarily single person throughout their life? I know it wasn't a big deal to me when I was single, it was all motorcycles and fun, but then I got older.

Did you buy into doom so hard you didn't prepare at all for non-doom, other than whatever minimum requirements were deducted from your pay during working for the man years? And on a cost basis, was that to your advantage? In other words, you didn't pay in much, and the kind of care you are getting is far beyond what you paid in? Which makes your decision extremely financially advantageous towards cash when you could use and enjoy it in the past, versus now where you really can't because of circumstances.

Quote from: RE on Mar 24, 2026, 06:05 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:07 PMAI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

Tell that to Faux Newz,  MAGA, Climate Change Deniers, Trumpsky and everyone else who claims they have the facts.

Don't stop there. Throw in Doomers since at least Earth Day 1970. And every gang that came out with the internet selling endtimes that never happened. Political crap and biased news aren't the only pimpers of facts that aren't.

Quote from: REWith AI and Deep Fakes facts can be quite hard to ascertain.  Seeing is not always believing.
RE

Facts are as stated...but I will grant that AI and social media has screwed things up mightily, as have our individual preferences to only sample from internet sites and social media that we agree with. Very few of us make damn sure to know what our detractors are saying, writing and researching, but it is quite critical.

You don't learn dick from your mindless sychophant friends. You learn best from enemies who are intelligent and degreed and know as much as you do on a topic. Anything less in my world is intellectual masturbation. Why do you think I started hanging out with doomers in the first place? Because however unlikely it might be, they might actually KNOW something of value on occasion. And I would never have learned it if I just interacted with friends or the intellectually similar.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 27, 2026, 04:30 PMWe must be smart enough not to support their narrative, and to do that we must be able to smell the shit💩.

I completely agree! But this isn't your first realization is it? Didn't you have the same angle with just run of the mill neocons decades ago? How could anyone mistake them for the real deal?

Unless..someone just utilizes whatever evidence they can configure to support a belief? A pre-existing internal  thought/feeling/prediliction, that just drives them to....BELEIVE.

It is the only explanation I have been able to come up with those who, after 2-5-10 busts in collapses and dooms just...can't....stop....finding it. In the morning paper detailing the military adventure of the week, a bad econnomy or stock market, like the 2008 recession in conjunction with claims of resource depletion of topsoil and phosphorous and clean water, etc etc. All configured into doom. When really, they are recessions. Bad times. Just high unemployment. Poor politicak leadership.

But if you get the right mind-bending lens of personal belief involved....all DOOMS!

Quote from: RE on Mar 28, 2026, 09:57 AM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 28, 2026, 08:43 AMHow many people woud you estimate ARE this economically ignorant RE?

Most people are ignorant of economic principles, including those who own EVs and have Solar Roofs

Could be. But you know something about economics, and I've been working in an economic environment for 2 decades now. Neither of us are ignorant about it, although perhaps only one of us has done it professionally. And this one knows that solar panels and EV's ROCK, when others are busy whining about liquid fuel costs.

Quote from: RE

QuoteRemember when folks thought the neocons were fascists?

Of course. They were correct, neocons were fascists.
RE

Based on recent reactions here, there are apparently fascists, and FASCISTS from recent reactions to the same type of folks. Some fascists generate NO KINGS protests, others are apparently lightweights and just generate whining.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 28, 2026, 04:09 PMThe Trump properties and businesses should be taken by congress and given as reparations To Iran.

OUCH!!!!

I remember sitting around a lunch table when the release of the American hostages held by Iran was announced. I was sitting at that table with 2 Iranians. They seemed like okay folks. But back then I would have been happy if Ronny had glassed Tehran just to make a point. Not sure which one, as I was young and reactive (before my  reputation became what it is today), but nuclear weapons being deployed seemed about right for making the point back then.

While I remember that day, and my feelings, they certainly aren't the same as then. I think this self inflicted shit show is just idiot Americans run amuck. However, it is worth wondering if we had indeed glassed Tehran back then, if we would be doing stupid shit nowadays to them?

QuoteShould be required reading for everyone who voted for the Cretin-in-Chief.

They

Quotebelieved they could wage and win a war easily just by being "based chads" (i.e., white dudes with retrograde attitudes about literally everything) who would avoid all the weak, woke, DEI-informed mistakes made in previous conflicts by such lily-livered libtards as, um, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

Trump has taken "ignorance is strength" as far as it can be taken.  Embracing the dark side has taken Trump as far as he can go.  Time for the crash.  This part is priceless:

QuoteAn Iranian military spokesman taunted Trump last week, rejecting an American 15-point peace plan by asking: "Has the level of your inner struggle reached ‌the ⁠stage of you negotiating with yourself?"

But to do his badness Trump does not negotiate with himself.  That is too much like introspection, and Trumps rejection of all things intellectual won't have any of that.  Success for Trump is reduced to getting what he wants.  You would like to think there is more to Trump, sadly there is not.  There is no thought of others at all except on how their light can reflect on him.  Not a lot of thought of anything except winning, which Trump confuses with making a deal.

QuoteThe MAGA worldview proudly refuses to engage with history, expresses contempt for all forms of academic or professional expertise and embraces a metaphysical faith in its god-emperor's ability to reshape reality to suit his needs or desires.

In other words, Satan worship.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 31, 2026, 01:36 PM

ARTBERMAN.COM • 2026-03-27

A System Failure is Not an Oil Bull Market

This is not simply higher prices. It is disruption of oil, gas, fertilizers, and critical trade flows. It may produce a short-term bull market in energy, but that strength will persist only until the economic system begins to weaken.

Art has always been good for a laugh. I get all his posts in my inbox, and his use of AI has been a bit...over the top as of late. Anyone who has read his work pre-AI can spot it pretty easily. The guy is as bland boring as any presenter I"ve ever seen, and that is without the factual errors he makes, and gets called out for in public (national conventions no less).

I suppose those unaware of his past work won't know any better, but you two have at least been around the block once. And have met quite a few of those since disgraced in the value of their opinion by actual results. Does quality not matter?

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

Can the global economy can survive the spike without triggering a cascade of defaults, policy errors, and de-globalization that permanently then lowers the oil price ceiling for years to come.  A market where people could buy oil products if they had money.  Which they do not as it has been all vacuumed to the top.

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.  It appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?  You have not refuted the structural bull market critique, you only offers a reason to ignore the person making it.  But you do it without any bonafides of your own.  Making your criticism worthless.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 31, 2026, 08:13 PMYour criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.

Maybe. But I have found fault with the pofessional mistakes he has made in public, in front of hundreds of people, or just tens, in national conferences.Or however many were on TOD and knew someone selling an amateurs perspective when it was announced.

What is your experience with his professional mistakes and their magnitude, to believe nothing more than his AI generated argument?

As I have mentioned, folks BELIEVE things they want to believe, first and foremost. Why? Because the scientific training and experience to test out a hypothesis is rare. I can name PhDs who lack such an ability.

Art is a history major for starters. And I caught him at a SIPES meeting not knowing that when it comes to the oil and gas industry as well.

In your world K-Dog, someone who claims to know something about electricity and doesn't know the different between voltage and amps, you take their word for wiring a circuit to your satisfaction do you?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 01, 2026, 03:19 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 31, 2026, 08:13 PMYour criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.

Maybe. But I have found fault with the pofessional mistakes he has made in public, in front of hundreds of people, or just tens, in national conferences.Or however many were on TOD and knew someone selling an amateurs perspective when it was announced.

What is your experience with his professional mistakes and their magnitude, to believe nothing more than his AI generated argument?

As I have mentioned, folks BELIEVE things they want to believe, first and foremost. Why? Because the scientific training and experience to test out a hypothesis is rare. I can name PhDs who lack such an ability.

Art is a history major for starters. And I caught him at a SIPES meeting not knowing that when it comes to the oil and gas industry as well.

In your world K-Dog, someone who claims to know something about electricity and doesn't know the different between voltage and amps, you take their word for wiring a circuit to your satisfaction do you?

Past mistakes or a history degree don't automatically apply now. If his current argument is 'AI-generated' or logically thin, point to the specific place where it is wrong.  And what do you have against history degrees.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 01, 2026, 04:24 PMPast mistakes or a history degree don't automatically apply now. If his current argument is 'AI-generated' or logically thin, point to the specific place where it is wrong.  And what do you have against history degrees.

I agree that past behavior demonstrating a lack of critical thinking, consistent logical misfires and no discernable experience in the field of international anything combined with AI could certainly generate a conclusion some might believe is reasonable. Dr Campbell, Dr Hall, and Dr Bardi demonstrate that even advanced degrees are no defense against sometimes tripping over ones past conclusions, so there is no shame for a history major turned geologist to suffer the same.

I have nothing in particular against history degrees. As I have aged, a knowledge of history has struck me as evver more useful, and even in my field of expertise, occasionally critical. After all, if you don't know the history of a particular field of endeavor, how can you even know where to begin trying to advance an understanding in a particular field?

Can you imagine some almost PhD somewhere discovering e=mc^2 and getting all excited over the discovery, just KNOWING he/she would win a Nobel for it? Such a thing could easily happen except....then you learn some history and its an "aw-shucks" kind of moment.

Apparently though Art didn't learn much about the history of oil, or take to heart much from petroleum geologists either before making his proclamations.

Do you have your own evidence and logical assembly to support his claims (you not having the known history he does of screwing the pooch regularly), or do you just agree with his conclusions? You have your own history of course, but I haven't seen you do the embarassing nonsense and claims I've personally watched him commit.

However, to be honest, in your case there is a definitive history of political belief and action that indicates you are a deep down believers in certain concepts. Not that it interferes with your overall brain function, but lets say it might be accused of occasionally....coloring.....the certainty of your conclusions.

QuoteDr Campbell, Dr Hall, and Dr Bardi demonstrate that even advanced degrees are no defense against sometimes tripping over ones past conclusions, so there is no shame for a history major turned geologist to suffer the same.

You are preaching to the choir here, we all know the difference between highly educated and intelligent in the Diner, but that argument still suffers from logical fallacy.

Doctors (Campbell, Hall, Bardi) all having advanced degrees are presumably at the peak of rigorous expertise yet they still trip over past mistakes. Then it is expected and reasonable that a mere historian also trip over mistakes.  So no shame for someone with a different background to experience the same failure as experts.

QuoteDo you have your own evidence and logical assembly to support his claims.

I do not agree that it is my responsibility to do so in this argument as the burden to refute or defend :

QuoteEngage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

Is still on you.  The rest is gossip.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 01, 2026, 06:42 PM

QuoteEngage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

Is still on you.  The rest is gossip.

He can't.  Art is just making the same argument as Krugman & El-Erian.  PK has a Nobel in Economics and M E-E was CEO of fucking PIMCO.  Those guys have unassailable credentials.  TDos merely takes every opportunity he can to bash anyone else in the Peak Oil community with a different spin than his.  He always resorts to Ad Hom attacks to try and undermine their credibility.  At least Art isn't an Anonymous Troll poaching collapse  websites though, regardless of what he majored in at university, so his credibility here is orders of magnitude higher than TDos.  Besides  Art's analysis is the same as PK & M E-E, so it's 3 recognized, non-Anon experts vs 1 annoying Anon Cyber Troll.  I'll side with the 3:1 opinion as an Unrecognized Multi-disciplinary Visionary Genius Autodidact (UMVGA), making it now 4:1. 😁

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 31, 2026, 08:13 PMDemand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

For you. Because as I've mentioned before, some folks start with an angle they like, and when someone like an Art is espousing a similar view, he is easy to agree with, and to defend his view regardless of demonstrable professional hiccups demonstrating a distinct lack of knowledge or prognostication abilities on his part.

"Most likely" is a great hedge. I'll bet you a years salary he couldn't calculate what the fractile of probability is for that statement. But is sounds like it is quite certain to be bad, doesn't it?

Quote from: K-DogYour criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.

My criticism of Art is based on facts, evidence, and his own long discredited OTHER claims, more in line with his masters degree if not his history one. Past bad acts on the part of a felon doesn't mean they commited their most recent crime, but it does factor into the odds of residicisim. History might not repeat itself, but when it comes to people and their habits, it most certainly can rhyme.

If a person demands you accept that 2+2=5 is that accusation without substance?

Quote from: K-DogYou have found no fault with his argument.

An argument it is indeed. He uses WORDS. Here are some at the beginning of the article.

"Oil is more likely to peak with the crisis and then follow a weakened global economy into a longer period of softness."

Not sure what peak he is referring to, certainly not the ones he was declaring almost 20 years ago now in World Oil. But a weakened global economy and a period of softness? I can buy that. But notice how it progresses to this.

"In a world constrained by debt, weak growth, and systemic instability, it is unrealistic to assume that capital cycle dynamics from decades past will repeat."

He doesn't prove the world is constrained by debt, he states it as fact. What is "weak" growth? Sure sounds like....GROWTH.....just not.. robust growth. Gee....weak growth before has certainly brought on the Apocalypse. Systemic instability! That one has me quivering in my boots! And all of this is mentioned...why? Because he has a strawman from others to attack, in order to sell what he has been selling for decades...some semblance of Doom!

There is a reason why the rubes love this guy. Have you seen how someone who doesn't know what his masters degree taught him pimps himself? His website is much better than it used to be. You think he makes much coin off pretending to just be the nitwit that declared the world ending and didn't know that the US could produce oil from shale? Nope..he is. ART BERMAN!


"World-renowned consultant? Check. Stellar keynote speaker? Undoubtedly. But above all, he's the energy world's unfiltered voice, seeing past the haze to what truly drives our global system: Energy is the economy."

Stellar keynote speaker! Every time I've heard him do a room he READS HIS SPEECH. He can't do off the cuff for shit, and when he tries, he gets facts wrong! Important ones!

Quote from: K-DogIt appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?

It is personal! It isn't as though geologists get much attention, but when they do, does it have to be some nitwit who doesn't know there is oil in US shales as opposed to the next Hubbert? At least Deffeyes had a functioning brain.

Quote from: K-DogMaking your criticism worthless.

Of course. Because believers do what they do, and if he was sucking his thumb and picking his nose while giving his talks while mumbling, it doesn't matter as long as they BELIEVE the words. Similar to religion I might add, belief is a tricky thing, and the first person it usually tricks is the person doing it.

I prefer science. If Art wants to collect a crowd that can think, he at least ought to throw the economic charts out there the way S&P and Rystad do. That's where the real money is....doing something right. Flashy websites though, well, the rubes go for that 9 times out of 10. The believers? 10 out of 10.

You admitted it's personal, which explains the focus on Berman's speaking style instead of the math.

You claim Berman didn't 'prove' the world is constrained by debt. Global debt is currently sitting at over 315 trillion That is roughly 3.30 times global output. Explain how a system carrying that debt survives a wartime energy spike without demand collapse.  Finding that ratio was not hard.  Perhaps it was your responsibility to find out how much debt there is.

Weak growth is growth lower than the cost of the debt. If the debt grows faster than the economy, the system goes tits up.

Pointing out that Berman was wrong about shale in the past doesn't change the current laws of thermodynamics,  compound interest, or the laws of the universe.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

You have not engaged with the argument.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 02, 2026, 04:25 PMYou admitted it's personal, which explains the focus on Berman's speaking style instead of the math.

Berman didn't do math. None. As I said...he only did argument, and appeared to change the severity of his argued claimed from the beginning of the article to the end.

If he tried, well, the last time I recall he got a petroleum engineer to help him out to make a Barnett argument. I forget the argument, only that he needed help to do decline curve analysis 101. DId that as an intern in college, extremely difficult. <giggle giggle>

Yes....Art....math.....things that make you want to go......hmmmmmm....

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 03, 2026, 03:43 PM<giggle giggle>

Really?   Behaving like a Jr High girl is going to enhance your credibility? 🙄

RE

Quotehe needed help to do decline curve analysis 101

You would know that how ?

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 04, 2026, 06:32 PMBut did Trump ever read Heinlein?
When he could read.[/color]

I thought it was common knowledge that Trump doesn't read, so the most likely answer is, even though he can, he doesn't in general.

But such designed ignorance isn't a surprise, recently we discussed folks with PhDs who can certainly read, and do, but then demonstrate they can't think their way out of a wet paper bag.

Some can read, some can't. Either of these skills don't preclude someone from being able to think, critically, with purpose, to solve a problem or find a correct solution. 

Trump does not think critically, and considering he is the president of the US, and has functional illiteracy he can't understand what he needs to for the job.
If a president can't do more than understand 'See Jane Run" that means he can't read.

Your wording suggests that because he can't read he can think critically.  That makes no sense, and in fact reading enhances one's ability to think critically.  In general readers have larger intellectual worlds than non-readers.  There is a relationship.


Saying "some can read, some can't, but either can think critically" is misleading, because the ability to comprehend complex written material is prerequisite for most forms of informed, analytical thought.  Especially in areas like policy, law, international affairs, and being chief executive of the United States.

Someone who can only read "See Jane Run" has extremely limited cognitive inputs for decision-making at the presidential level.  Just being able to read Heinlein does not cut it at the presidential level, and I doubt Trump can even read Heinlein.  If he ever could, those days are behind him.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 05, 2026, 11:13 AM

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Fnews%2F976%2Fcpsprodpb%2F3D1A%2Fproduction%2F_99624651_moca.png&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=5e51e8536a37d4ea091c15e924346652332bebe1a2da2ee9dcba72dd9a2f0ff5)

Trump does not think critically, and considering he is the president of the US, and has functional illiteracy he can't understand what he needs to for the job.

Seems to me to be a given demonstrably seen in his behavior for awhile now. Like Biden there towards the end, but worse in weirder ways.

Quote from: K-DogYour wording suggests that because he can't read he can think critically. 

I had to leave that presumption in, yes. But not necessarily for HIM of course. Critcal thinking is a tricky thing, I'm working with someone right now who is probably near genius at coding and whatnot, mathematics, and can't for a second check their own work to realize that second order effects visible in her answers could be spotted by a first year engineering student. 3 Masters degrees this one has for crying out loud. The computer folks say her code is great...and creates 2+2=5 issues all over the place. Refuses to see it even after a 6 page memo with charts and examples. Weird.

Quote from: K-DogThat makes no sense, and in fact reading enhances one's ability to think critically.

All the reading necessary to get 3 Masters Degree's hasn't done it for my coworker, so I'll stick with my original implication. That and extensive experience studying the PhD's who "studied" peak oil.

Quote from: K-DogIn general readers have larger intellectual worlds than non-readers.  There is a relationship.

I can agree there would be a correlation. But that correlation certainly isn't 1.