Doomstead

QuoteWhy fourteen-day US-Iran ceasefire won't fix global energy crisis

What ceasefire?

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 08, 2026, 05:59 PM

QuoteWhy fourteen-day US-Iran ceasefire won't fix global energy crisis

What ceasefire?

RE

You blinked and missed it.  Israel never agreed despite what press releases said.  Israel wants us to become involved so deep that we have boots on the ground.  At this point, Trump has committed treason for going along with Israel.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 08, 2026, 09:38 PM

Quote from: RE on Apr 08, 2026, 05:59 PM

QuoteWhy fourteen-day US-Iran ceasefire won't fix global energy crisis

What ceasefire?

RE

You blinked and missed it.  Israel never agreed despite what press releases said.  Israel wants us to become involved so deep that we have boots on the ground.  At this point, Trump has committed treason for going along with Israel.

There never was a ceasefire, because  Trumpolini simply ignored the provisions of the 10 points he can't accept and claim victory.  He just needed an excuse to TACO from committing Genocide and gain 2 weeks to try and work up a plan that can get the Jarheads through the straight.  That is the tactical problem stopping the invasion idea.  Their first try on this they got hit and were forced to retreat back out into the Indian Ocean.

Any Boots on the Ground attempt will generate horrific losses. so he's currently stymied.  The only plausible military maneuver would be to use tactical nukes to clear the coastline, but that has obvious political problems.

Look for the market to reprice tomorrow.

RE

Iran and the U.S. have very different conceptions of whether Lebanon counts as part of the nascent cease-fire. After Donald Trump confirmed that in his view Israel and Lebanon are in a "separate skirmish," which conflicts with the view of Pakistan, the country that mediated the dispute, Iran showed its displeasure by closing the strait to oil tankers, and now the Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened military action against "aggressors in the region" (Israel) if the Lebanon attacks continue.

Diner Headline: Trumpolini's Operation Epic Fail  Negotiates Ceaseless Fire Agreement.

RE

Yolanda is a country.  Jules is a country.  And Ringo represents the Fascist States of America.
The first step in this cognitive test, is to correctly identify the countries that Yolanda and Jules represent.  Vincent is Saudi Arabia.  The fat man is the rest of the world.

The question is can Ringo keep Yolanda cool.  He did in the movie.  But that is where the analogy breaks down.  As in the movie, Ringo does not get the briefcase.  Ringo has to settle for the Saudi Sovereign Fund wallets from the other diners in the room.

This is a pretty solid rhyme if you correctly identify the country Jules is playing.

It breaks down only because Ringo can't keep his bitch cool.






Unlike in the movie, Yolanda calls the shots.  That is bad news.

Honey Bunny is a problem.




Regardless the glowing nuclear material in the briefcase does not change hands.

Ringo's mother does not like Yolanda.

And it's a rhyming day.


What fire begets this fire, like torches thrown into the straw?
If no one asks, then no one answers, that's how every empire falls

Low-key means continue and carry-on Donald.  You just told the world how evil you are again.

"Vice President J.D. Vance stated that Iran had a "legitimate misunderstanding" about Lebanon's inclusion in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, saying, "I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't."

Never have I read a more mealy-mouth admission of 'We Lied To Them,' it was all part of the performance.  If you meet a Buddha on the road who suggests Vance should be president, you know what to do.  We do not need this shape-shifting smokey-eyed actor who only plays the part of being a man.

Going through the motions, because hey whacha-gonna-do.  But as these men walk the red carpet they already know that Israel is not going to let Trump make peace.  These men are doing what they have to do, but they went to bed and woke up knowing that Trump wears a dog collar.

With the price dropping to $80 on the Ceaseless Fire, I think you can officially say Demand Destruction has already begun.  A lot of the world simply can't afford to buy oil at $100+/bbl.  Not getting enough bids.

RE

Still, the direction further out remains murky.  But the answer may be right in front of us: long-term structural volatility. The world has woken up to a new baseline of instability in the Middle East that won't go away so long as the current regime in Iran remains and the country can control or simply block the Strait of Hormuz. And that instability is bound to create price volatility.

Forget the volatility in oil prices.  Wait until the shortfalls in FOOD PRODUCTION start showing up next year.  The volatility won't just be in the markets.  It will be in the streets.

RE

That volume accounts for one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne traded oil.  Yet the destinations of those flows expose the asymmetry that ultimately doomed the strategy.

Here's a wild new projection for the result of the closure of the Hormuz straight!  This guy figures it's a doomed strategy since alternate routes will be built to move the oil and the FSoA will up its exports to cover the global shortfall inside a year or so.  By 5 years everything is back to normal and Iran is marginalized.  In a decade the regime collapses.

Most entertaining is that he thinks Trumpolini is a forward thinking strategic GENIUS!!! 🤪

"The Hormuz closure wasn't a surprise to any serious person, one might argue Trump turned what the enemy believed to be a leverage to a ticking time bomb trap the IRGC just walked into.

IRGC was never the end goal, China is."


Opinions welcome.

RE

In a decade the regime collapses.






By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.
By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.

New pipelines might relieve the oil transport some, won't do much for fertilizer though.  How many people will be left after 5 years of fertilizer shortages?

RE

For years, fossil fuel advocates spruiked oil, gas and coal as "reliable" energy. That narrative has been reversed. Fossil fuels have become expensive and unreliable, while renewables are cheap, reliable and secure.  For the first time ever, more than 50 nations will gather next week in Colombia to hash out how to wind down and end their dependence on coal, oil and gas. The history-making conference was planned before the Iran war. But this year's energy crisis has greatly raised the stakes.

Problem solved!  I was getting worried. 🙄

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 22, 2026, 05:31 PMProblem solved!  I was getting worried. 🙄

RE

And fertilizer is a by-product.👍

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.

A good one! They said the world would collapse in a decade back in 1970, but I think that was more global cooling, starvation and whatnot. But can't we think bigger than just a regime? I mean, how are you going to attract clicks from anyone other than a couple of us and the MIB unless you got all in with COOLER stuff?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 24, 2026, 02:33 PMA good one! They said the world would collapse in a decade back in 1970, but I think that was more global cooling, starvation and whatnot. But can't we think bigger than just a regime?

Doubtful this guy bought into Peak Oil.  He's almost certainly a Collapse Denier, an obvious idiot.  His whole theory is based on the premise that Trumpolini is a strategic genius and inside a decade all the the oil will be smoothly flowing again via new routes.  Anybody who buys this idea is a few BTUs short of melting an ice cube.  I'd hazard the guess his IQ is measured in the negative imaginary irrational numbers.  He's probably a geologist or oil trader.  lol.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 24, 2026, 06:21 PMDoubtful this guy bought into Peak Oil.

I've never claimed that everyone was equally ignorant on the topic. Just those that were willing to demonstrably prove it.

Quote from: REHe's almost certainly a Collapse Denier, an obvious idiot.  His whole theory is based on the premise that Trumpolini is a strategic genius and inside a decade all the the oil will be smoothly flowing again via new routes.

Strikes me as perfectly idiotic theory.

Quote from: REAnybody who buys this idea is a few BTUs short of melting an ice cube.

Or alternatively, he would fit right in with peak oilers circa 2000-2005 or so.

Quote from: REI'd hazard the guess his IQ is measured in the negative imaginary irrational numbers.

I would not. Low IQs are not required to be suckered into a theory, be it him, or PhD's who have their own collapse theories that come and go. Guy McPherson being just one example.

People of all IQ's make a decision to BELIEVE. If they have low IQs, they stop there. If they have PhD's, they weave a tale, mixing in facts, history, supposition and "what-ifs", with a hint of "and I've got a PhD" and presto!   Dr Colin Campbell...global peak oil...1990. ASPO in Europe with Colin and Ugo. And others. IQ had nothing to do with how they talked themselves into drawing a conclusion so easily known to be a crock.

Quote from: REHe's probably a geologist or oil trader.  lol.

RE

Certainly Colin was a geologist, and Ugo something like physical chemistry? McPherson wasn't a geologist either.

Oh yes...and I should mention...neither am I. But some people....they are so smart....they believe anything they think. Or find on LinkedIn. 😀😀 So in this regard, you are in some educated company even without a PhD, and also BELEIVING in your conclusions because, hey, you is smartz too!

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 25, 2026, 10:50 AM

Oh yes...and I should mention...neither am I. But some people....they are so smart....they believe anything they think. Or find on LinkedIn. 😀😀 So in this regard, you are in some educated company even without a PhD, and also BELEIVING in your conclusions because, hey, you is smartz too!

I too am an excellent driver.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 25, 2026, 10:50 AMPeople of all IQ's make a decision to BELIEVE. If they have low IQs, they stop there. If they have PhD's, they weave a tale, mixing in facts, history, supposition and "what-ifs", with a hint of "and I've got a PhD" and presto!  Dr Colin Campbell...global peak oil...1990. ASPO in Europe with Colin and Ugo. And others. IQ had nothing to do with how they talked themselves into drawing a conclusion so easily known to be a crock.

We are in agreement on this point certainly.  Also true is that having a Ph.D. doesn't necessarily mean you're very smart.  On just about any subject, if you have at least average intelligence and spend 4-6 years plodding through the subject and then slavishly follow your advisor's directions in the lab and get his order for coffee correct every morning, pay your bills on time at the bursar's office, they'll hand you your sheepskin at the end of it.  The really smart people never bother with this and understand that the real value of a college education are the parties, the girls, the drugs and the endlessly flowing booze. 😁  Another truth is that really smart people, like everyone else all have a price.  Offer them enough money and they'll make a very convincing case for just about any insane notion you care to promote, like for instance that smoking promotes longer lasting, harder erections and stronger orgasms.  Or that trannie women should be allowed to compete with cis women in a boxing ring. Or that burning fossil fuels has nothing to do with climate change.  Or that the war with Iran was a good idea because they are all Muslim towel head terrorists stuck in the middle ages.

All of which explains why I don't put any more value on what World Class Experts in any field have to say than anyone else.  Appeal to Authority is a logical fallacy that does nothing to demonstrate the truth of an argument.  Far as the various people who had a variety of Peak Oil theories are concerned, some were better than others, some were astoundingly bad, some were quite good.  Guy McStinksion was a clown of course, he had us all dead by 2016.  I've never been a fan of Ugo's belief that Solar can replace fossil fuels in time and maintain the current FSoA standard of living or population size.  Richard Heinberg's work was pretty good, and i've found good information from both Resilience.org & the Post Carbon Institute.  There's good and bad information out there, as in all things.  You have to separate the wheat from the chaff.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 25, 2026, 11:47 AMI too am an excellent driver.

Really? Do you mean that like a good or safe street driver? Or someone with extensive track time?

Quote from: RE on Apr 25, 2026, 12:09 PMThe really smart people never bother with this and understand that the real value of a college education are the parties, the girls, the drugs and the endlessly flowing booze. 😁 

Now THAT is pretty funny, and probably true based on my experience with frat boys and whatnot. I was married, never did drugs and whatnot, and don't drink. I guess I just learned stuff that later came in handy when showing up the PhD and true believer types who jsut went to school for booze and the girls. 

Quote from: REAnother truth is that really smart people, like everyone else all have a price.  Offer them enough money and they'll make a very convincing case for just about any insane notion you care to promote, like for instance that smoking promotes longer lasting, harder erections and stronger orgasms.

Really? So you don't believe in folks being ethical, the certainly of proven science without regard to someone paying you to play make believe?

Quote from: REOr that trannie women should be allowed to compete with cis women in a boxing ring.

Not sure what that has to do with anything. Had problems with trannys in the past or something?

Quote from: REOr that burning fossil fuels has nothing to do with climate change.  Or that the war with Iran was a good idea because they are all Muslim towel head terrorists stuck in the middle ages.

Oh now I get it. You are just doing the reheased littany of anti "party you don't like" stuff. Good thing I'm  not a Republican either. Not a dumbass Democrat either. I have reserved the right to be independent since 1992. 

Quote from: REAll of which explains why I don't put any more value on what World Class Experts in any field have to say than anyone else.

Understandable. After all, if you can't be one, then bash them. Quite a common reaction.

Quote from: REAppeal to Authority is a logical fallacy that does nothing to demonstrate the truth of an argument.

Quite true. But those who demonstrated the validity of their understanding by nothing more than the passage of some time, well, now we aren't talking about logical fallacies at all. Just prescience. Like....say...the opposite of what Ehrlich did. Or Campbell, McPherson, Hirsch, etc etc. Bu what did they know, getting those rubber stamped PhD's. 

Quote from: RERichard Heinberg's work was pretty good, and i've found good information from both Resilience.org & the Post Carbon Institute.
RE

Richard Heinberg? The amateur violin player who claimed that peak oil happened around 2008, and advocated that the government should immediately send/move suburbanites to the fields to grow food, as otherwise everyone was going to starve? He speaks well. As far as technical understanding...well....they say he is a good amateur violin player.

So you like college dropouts (he claimed he dropped out because he liked to smoke weed more, and played in a rock band (according to his interview on TOD) who more closely resembles the ideas of Pol Pot and Mao? Post Carbon in general (excluding Hughes of course....tell me....did North America run out of natural gas reserves by 2016 as he claimed?) isn't bad...as long as the topic has nothing to do with oil, and sticks with just making the world and environment better. Without blaming it on oil disappearing anyway. A decent environmental angle.

When you claimed you never had a major interest in peak oil, but more the overall doomer perspective across many topics, it makes sense you wouldn't know a decent geoscience based peak oil opinion from Joe Bob the nose picker at the local bar.

Some of my best friends were trannies.  They just shouldn't compete with cissies because they have different physiology.  Not a level playing field.

Far as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones.  Collective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea.  Purging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea.  Abolishment of capitalism also good.  Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.

Suburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper.  Starting now would be a good idea also, since such a massive transition of lifestyle and relocation of people isn't going to happen overnight.

Never claimed to not have an interest in Peak Oil, just that it's not what led me to become interested in collapse.  Economics did that.  I've never been married to any particular time line on it, just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by.  It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.

Anyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world.  Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are planting their crops, and we'll see what the yields are like at the end of summer.  Where it goes from here is anybody's guess, mine would be that next year will be worse than this year, which was already pretty bad.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 25, 2026, 06:10 PMFar as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones.

Indeed. And it only cost tens of millions of people's their lives. Around here the MIB occasionally deciding to erase posts that are meaningless in the greater context is taken quite seriously, but idiots running countries starving their citizens by the tens of millions? They had some good ideas to make up for that. Which of their good ideas balanced this scale when it comes to their people?

Quote from: RECollective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea.

Stalin thought the same, and handed Ukraine the Holodomor. When will these "good ideas" that in the past just murdered tens of millions finally work do you think?

Quote from: REPurging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea.  Abolishment of capitalism also good.  Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.

Yeah, not worried about purging universities, but more starving everyone in sight with how well these ideas worked out in the past. But hey, at least the rich and privileged got spanked as well!

Quote from: RESuburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper.

So you are with Heinberg, Pol Pot, Mao and Stalin when it comes to this "back to farming" idea? What happens to folks unable to participate like you, just bullets to the head or a gas chamber?

Quote from: RE....just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by.  It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.

Dependence on finite resources is WHAT HUMANS HAVE DONE to date. It isn't as though humans all got together at a big confernece during the hunting and gathering stage and decided to stay that way, knowing in advance what dependency on non-renewables would entail. Although any economist could also argue )and do) that this dependency is required to leverage to a future we can see right now (even if it is the early stages) of renewable energy, fusion waiting inthe wings, an electrified world, the ability to increase recovery factors and efficiencies in accessing those non-renewable resources, and so on and so forth. Economics isn't a physical or natural science for a reason, but it does allow for GREAT storytelling.

Quote from: REAnyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world.

Pick a year anywhere between Jan 1 1900 and today and I'll come up with a deep doo-doo story. Dooming is what doomers do, if not the Mayan Calendar, then peak oil. If not that, then Yellowstone. Continue ad infinitum. "Being in deep do do" is a throwaway perpetual motion machine among the doomer legions. You've still got a working brain, you can at least pretend you aren't the only one in the room with one.

10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short.  Prior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

AI Overview

Based on estimates by agricultural scientists such as Vaclav Smil, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process (early 20th century) was approximately 1.6 to 2 billion people, or roughly a quarter the population that can be supported today with synthetic fertilizers.

The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.  Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 11:24 AM10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short. 

Sure. And when global cooling kicks in a big chunk of the Earth's population will die-off, as claimed in 1970 by folks with degrees in the field and whatnot. Doomers of the day as well I imagine. Folks all agreed.

And your angle, based within the overall concept of Apocalyticism, has been around for millennium. So now you want to argue fertilizer? The only good news being, if you are right THIS time (as compared to all the others) then at LEAST we'll get enough of a population reduction to actually be able to claim some form of collapse is happening. FINALLY the doomers might have got one right.

Then again....the usual might happen. Folks adapt, adjust, find workarounds, and compensate. The things that Doomers apparently never factor into their proclamations. Have you?

Quote from: REPrior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

COOL! And before people discovered black rocks that could burn, the carrying capacity was even less! And then what happened? EXACTLY what I previously suggested, listed nicely on Page 18 of my copy of Catton's Overshoot. He might have been a xenophobe at heart, but at the very least you should know that your argument has been blown out of the water by every thing listed on that page. And your only argument around it is claiming it can't happen again? You aren't that stupid, so either you are assuming I am (which is a terrible habit of yours) or you already know you can't and just want to pretend everyone else really is stupid.

Quote from: REThe goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.

Yes, I'm sure the 10's if not 100 million folks murdered during the last totalitarian experiments in this process just didn't try hard enough, only their LIVES depending on it and everything. Not enough motivation you figure, what is your plan for motivating people to grow food that is better than telling them their lives depended on it?

Quote from: REHad it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

It was followed through. All those folks died, and the fearless leaders who liked your idea, changed their minds when it turned out that just everyone died. 

Quote from: REThe Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

Well then there we go! More Castro's and Cubans, and murderous Jews, and we're in business!

Here is my bet. Catton's opinion, resembling yours, is that a process that has happened throughout millenia has suddenly stopped. Because HE, and YOU, can't see NOW the next evolution. That is mostly a lack of imagination, a sense of absolutism in terms of what is today in terms of technology, will not change. Both you, and he, apparently lack the vision to cast progress into the future. In your case it is probably just because it fits a personal belief, because you aren't stupid. Which means you, perhaps like Catton, suffer from the same psychological hiccup. Catton, after detailing all the prior multiple phase changes...decided that well...NOW....it must stop. You are are both smart, he even published the prior phase changes, but both of you, because you can't see it in the moment, pretend it can't happen again.

Amusingly, odds are, it is already happening. It is why peak oil predictions were wrong. Both of you lack whatever that perspective is that allows an analytic projection into the future that isn't just doom. You are just repeating what the experts claimed in 1970...and for the same reason. The inability to see the next phase change.

Hubbert screwed the pooch because he, and others, couldn't see beyond the data, geology and history. They skipped the economic component. Like Ehrlich, he missed some pretty basic economic concepts.

Let me give you just one pie in the sky example. Recovery factors in oil and gas fields were once upon a time X%. With time and technology, they increased to Y%. A change in economics and technology. This opened up potentially hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil, if not trillions ultimately. EVs arriving on the world stage and in mass production, and their ever decreasing costs. Batteries that rely less on critical minerals. Solar panels on roof tops all across America. A paradigm shift in where enegy is produced, and from what. Fusion is a good example. Not here yet, but the instant it is? Another shift.

 

Trump's WWIII


Trump's clusterfuck of faults, and his bad decisions has started a tsunami that will smash onto America's shores in the months to come.  For now the waters are calm, but this state of affairs will not remain.

True it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PMTrue it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE

The Soviet Union after 1923 was a degenerated workers' state.  Property was formally nationalized, but political power had been usurped by a privileged bureaucracy that pushed aside soviet democracy and the working class.  Trotsky rejected the sloppy equation of 'Stalinism = socialism.'  as Stalinism was a counterrevolutionary distortion arising from the objective contradictions produced by the material conditions of the time.

Now what will the objective contradictions generated by the material conditions Trump gives to us do.  The contradictions will resolve.  Such are the physics of real life.  How the contradictions resolve will not be pleasant.

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PMTrue it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.

Worked fine? Really? The USSR had like a average lifespan of its citizens of like 57 years old under Communism, and the last time K-Dog was talking about the wonders of such a system I posted a picture of a Soviet era kitchen and asked him if he thought the wife would think that was juset jim dandy fine. As expected when uncomfortable truths are so easily revealed, I believe the post generated no answer, such are the consequences of well thought out examples.

You'd be dead already in Stalin's system, you might think that is fine, but it wasn't American's fleeing the US to live in such a fine and upstanding system back in the day.

Quote from: REAlso worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

If you minimize "early problems" as the greatest manmade dieoff in the history, sure, look how great Tibet, Hong Kong, the Uyghurs love the system, and Taiwan isn't arming itself to try and keep subjugation away from them, but to steal American military tech first because they LOVE the idea of being Chinese and are just faking enjoying a free market economy.

Quote from: REYou conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.

Only because communists appear to love being totalitarian states. Why aren't you regaling me with stories of how well the North Koreans have it compared to their poor, downtrodden southern neighbors? Are all South Koreans yearning to move North to be free of their capitalist overlords?

Quote from: REThey are not one in the same thing.

I agree. Too bad they just LOOK that way sometimes. Like, in between killing off millions because, you know, totalitarians LOVE Communism because it is GREAT for totaltarian rulers to make everyone do what they want.

Quote from: RECapitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Capitalism has some MASSIVE faults, no one is claiming it doesn't. But some might be arguing it is the least shittiest, plus as the Presidency goes, so can go the US. So when the Orange One's time is done, maybe we'll see a bit more normality return. Maybe.

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 07:40 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

Yeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Doomers don't ever like the status quo, I get that, it oozes from their pores and into their words and ideas.But surely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it? Have ANY of your establishment complaints changed since since King George II of the early 21st century arrived other than the names involved?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMsurely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

I didn't have any establishment complaints when King George II of the early 21st century arrived, I wasn't born yet.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 27, 2026, 05:42 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMsurely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

A possibility. Another one is that humour is something easier to interpret in person, involving expressions, tone of voice, more subtle physical clues, etc etc.

You just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMYeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Dismissing "communism" as a failed utopian dream misses the essential point.

Marxism isn't an abstract wish list.  It is a materialist analysis of how society actually works. Your terrible outcomes weren't inherent to socialism itself, but were the consequences of specific historical circumstances and political errors.  Bureaucracy degenerated workers' power, and sabotaged the international workers revolution.  But that was then, and this is now.

The core socialist aims collective control over production to end class exploitation remain fundamentally sound, and are analytically necessary.

The question isn't whether socialist goals are desirable (they are), but how can these goals be consciously achieved by the working class.  Using democratic means.  Avoiding the pitfalls and errors that lead to authoritarianism.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 07:03 PMYou just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

You need clues to figure out if something is funny?  It's not detective work, you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes.

RE

I wouldn't count on this lowering the price of oil anytime soon.  Down the line some though, Demand Destruction could do that.  It will however make the whole energy market more volatile and less predictable.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 27, 2026, 07:09 PMDismissing "communism" as a failed utopian dream misses the essential point.

I didn't dismiss it that way. I just compared RE's perspective on it to the reality of it. Theory and practice are two different things.

Quote from: K-DogMarxism isn't an abstract wish list.  It is a materialist analysis of how society actually works. Your terrible outcomes weren't inherent to socialism itself, but were the consequences of specific historical circumstances and political errors.  Bureaucracy degenerated workers' power, and sabotaged the international workers revolution.  But that was then, and this is now.

Sure. And now the Communists have forced labor camps for the Uyghurs, are making sure that Hong Kong folks aren't so thrilled with their switch from capitalism to being ChiComs again, want to make sure that the capitalists in Taiwan, doing quite well for themselves, are brought to heel and properly....educated...and Tibet certainly understands that difference betweem being free or being...under someone elses bootheel.

China is certainly a long way from Mao killing off 10's of millions in food experiments, so in your mind are they "proper" socialists nowadays? The kind you would happily give up your 4 wheeled status symbols for?

Quote from: K-DogThe core socialist aims collective control over production to end class exploitation remain fundamentally sound, and are analytically necessary.

In theory. And if we are talking socialism like Scandanavian countries as compared to China and North Korea, I'd pick Scandanavia for sure.

Quote from: K-DogThe question isn't whether socialist goals are desirable (they are), but how can these goals be consciously achieved by the working class.  Using democratic means.  Avoiding the pitfalls and errors that lead to authoritarianism.

Having not asked a question, but just responded to RE and his enthusiasm for a particular socio-economic system, the results of which are already in the history books.

And I think we are currently in some form of mismanaged oligarchy more than anything else. And the oligarchs are going to do their best to keep it that way.

Quote from: RE on Apr 27, 2026, 10:11 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 07:03 PMYou just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

You need clues to figure out if something is funny?

I met you before, you pretending to not remember being irrelevant. You had a habit, of saying something, then having this dry little laugh as though what you said was amusing enough to warrant it. I didn't laugh at all, as it was just conversation, and you weren't being funny. It was just some mannerism. You do it in your videos as well.

I don't need clues to figure out what is funny. It is an easy thing, you know it when you see it. In person, or in your videos, you see it everywhere. I do not.

Quote from: REIt's not detective work, you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes.

RE

Nothing to do with Sherlock Holmes. I didn't laugh when you were yucking it up over....whatever...in Inman either.

Granted, my sense of humor is somewhat idiosyncratic and not appreciated by everyone.  The reason I don't remember you is probably because you didn't laugh at my jokes and said nothing worth remembering.  I do remember vaguely meeting a somber little man in disheveled clothing I though might be a homeless schizophrenic off his meds and discussing electric scooters.  He didn't identify himself though, I figured he couldn't remember his name.

RE

QuoteAnd now the Communists have forced labor camps for the Uyghurs

Following ethnic rioting, and a series of deadly terror attacks within and outside Xinjiang which Beijing blamed on Uyghurs, President Xi Jinping launched a "Strike Hard Campaign against Violent Extremism" in 2014 that framed Uyghur identity as a security threat.

Seems that their supreme leader is responsible for their camps.  Communism would not have a supreme leader.  Communism has soviets.  Or are you just going to say you never asked a question about Uyghurs now.  As you seem to not know the difference between authoritarianism and communism that would be your next move.

Quote from: RE on Apr 28, 2026, 06:19 PMGranted, my sense of humor is somewhat idiosyncratic and not appreciated by everyone.  The reason I don't remember you is probably because you didn't laugh at my jokes and said nothing worth remembering.

Both of those conditions are likely to be true, you didn't tell any jokes, just threw out those little laughs on occasion as though you had, and I didn't say anything worth remembering.

I was there to see if the money you were investing in that little SUN exercise had any chance of being something. You did put significant resources into it if memory serves. After it was all over, the videos of your drunken scooter/ebike excapades, the commentary on the size of the liquor bill for the sales pitch on local political "intelligentsia" (otherwise known as "southern crackers" perhaps?) all seemed a bit...pricey for the final result.

Wendy gave me the impression that the entire exercise was designed to find support for a theme park showing people how great it would be to live Amish or something similar. As though taking a trip to Amish country wouldn't suffice?

Quote from: REI do remember vaguely meeting a somber little man in disheveled clothing I though might be a homeless schizophrenic off his meds and discussing electric scooters.  He didn't identify himself though, I figured he couldn't remember his name.

I've got a solid 6-8 inches on you, and probably 100# at that point in time. And you never asked me to identify myself, I certainly wasn't about to hand you a business card knowing your propensity for cyber stalking. Although Haniel was gone by then I believe and you hadn't found a tech replacement to do your MIB routine on Diner members.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 29, 2026, 06:45 AMOr are you just going to say you never asked a question about Uyghurs now.  As you seem to not know the difference between authoritarianism and communism that would be your next move.

Can't say I've asked many questions about Uyghurs, no. As far as not knowing the difference between communism and authoritarianism, well, we all have our specialties. Political distinctions are interesting to some I suppose, not sure why, but to each their own. My specialty pays quite well. Do you get paid well for knowing nuances of various political definitions/organizations, or is it just a hobby to one-up other politically involved hobbyists?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2026, 04:29 PMI've got a solid 6-8 inches on you, and probably 100# at that point in time.

Must have been someone else then.    I don't remember talking to any 6'2" Fat Guys, so if I talked to you, it wasn't very memorable.  Can't say for sure whether I told a joke or not, but it's irrelevant.  You don't recognize my jokes without clues, and I don't hand out clues, especially to fat trolls stalking southern redneck town fairs incognito.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2026, 04:46 PMMy specialty pays quite well.

Bragging about how much you get paid is a violation of the CoC.  3 Days in the Cooler.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 29, 2026, 06:51 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2026, 04:29 PMI've got a solid 6-8 inches on you, and probably 100# at that point in time.

Must have been someone else then. I don't remember talking to any 6'2" Fat Guys, so if I talked to you, it wasn't very memorable.

More like 5'10". You are quite short. And I told you, there wasn't supposed to be anything memorable. I'm really good at what I do, if only demonstrated by the quality of my diet not changing at all in these hard times. Why did Wendy think you were setting up an amusement park to demonstrate how cool it was to be Amish? And you are pimping the idea in FARM country...to the LOCALS?

You just seemed to be there to entertain folks with that electric scooter thing.

Quote from: RECan't say for sure whether I told a joke or not, but it's irrelevant. 

I don't think you told any jokes. You just said stuff, and then gave that random laugh as though you did. Again, as I said before but perhaps you missed, it shows up all over the place in your videos as well. And when you talk. No jokes needed.

Quote from: REYou don't recognize my jokes without clues, and I don't hand out clues, especially to fat trolls stalking southern redneck town fairs incognito.
RE

I don't recognize random laughter for whatever it is a symptom of either. And I was fat then. Lost 50# in the past 2 years though.

How long before you vast experience with suits and 3D printers is going to deliver the real world result of better tasting protein and more quantities of it?

Quote from: TDoS on May 02, 2026, 07:49 PMYou are quite short.

Either you can't add or you're a poor judge  of height.   I'm not Joe Pesci.  I'm the same height as Tom Cruise. 😀

RE

Quote from: RE on May 03, 2026, 01:24 AM

Quote from: TDoS on May 02, 2026, 07:49 PMYou are quite short.

Either you can't add or you're a poor judge  of height.   I'm not Joe Pesci.  I'm the same height as Tom Cruise. 😀

RE

Whatever you say. I am making my estimate based on how short you were compared to me. The 12 year old who came up and asked about your little electric skateboard thing was about your height, so my estimate seems pretty reasonable. 

Quote from: TDoS on May 03, 2026, 06:54 AMWhatever you say. I am making my estimate based on how short you were compared to me. The 12 year old who came up and asked about your little electric skateboard thing was about your height, so my estimate seems pretty reasonable. 

I was sitting on the scooter, dimwit.

RE

Quote from: RE on May 03, 2026, 09:55 AMI was sitting on the scooter, dimwit.
RE

No. You weren't. You had to get on the thing to show the kid who wandered by that you could do feats of daring do with it. All dressed in black, sort of like a small Johnny Cash. And how would you know anyway? You are the one claiming you don't even remember me being there and soaking more than half an hour of your time? And then I talked to Wendy, noticed Dave and Monsta sitting near her tent, and John explaining something undoubtedly bamboo-ish to others. Collected some literature. And then I left.

It was quite illustrative, in terms of getting a bead on who I had been dealing with.

He said, she said. 🙄

At the time, I COULDN'T stand up without having something to  brace myself against, and even then only briefly.  Certainly did not stand talking to a boring fat man.

RE

Quote from: RE on May 03, 2026, 01:04 PMHe said, she said. 🙄

Not at all. One of us has already described the events because we remember them. And the other has claimed no memory of said meeting. Your statement is contradicted by your previous claim of not remembering me at all. Tsk tsk.

Quote from: REAt the time, I COULDN'T stand up without having something to  brace myself against, and even then only briefly.

Well, the "briefly" could certainly be less than 30 minutes or so, as for a minute or two you were wobbling around demonstrating the toy like nature of that little electric scooter thing was when you weren't standing.

Perhaps you were still loaded from all the partying that weekend, and you can explain being able to stand as you were half in the bag?

Quote from: RECertainly did not stand talking to a boring fat man.
RE

Like I said, you can't claim to remember something when you've already claimed not to. I can only relate the facts of the matter. Facts are handy when working as a scientist. And they are easier to have when not half baked from a party masquerading as a sales pitch for a Amish park of some sort.

How well did your memory hold up after those cocaine partys you've described back in your Wall Street days? Any better than just boozing it up all weekend with friends?   

Quote from: TDoS on May 03, 2026, 07:17 PMHow well did your memory hold up after those cocaine partys you've described back in your Wall Street days? Any better than just boozing it up all weekend with friends?   

It works just fine.  It is selective though.  With people, I remember all the really hot women I ever met and anyone who had interesting ideas to chat about.  Anybody else is mostly a crap shoot, except for rude, fat, boring, stupid, anonymous and ugly people who I nearly always forget.  More than 1 of those attributes increases the chance you will be forgotten.  If the person also has interesting ideas besides being ugly for instance, it increase the chance I remember them.  So it's no surprise you didn't get a storage bin in the archives.
(https://media.tenor.com/YMLrbdFSIqAAAAAM/papershredder-seth-meyers.gif)

RE