Doomstead

QuoteWhy fourteen-day US-Iran ceasefire won't fix global energy crisis

What ceasefire?

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 08, 2026, 05:59 PM

QuoteWhy fourteen-day US-Iran ceasefire won't fix global energy crisis

What ceasefire?

RE

You blinked and missed it.  Israel never agreed despite what press releases said.  Israel wants us to become involved so deep that we have boots on the ground.  At this point, Trump has committed treason for going along with Israel.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 08, 2026, 09:38 PM

Quote from: RE on Apr 08, 2026, 05:59 PM

QuoteWhy fourteen-day US-Iran ceasefire won't fix global energy crisis

What ceasefire?

RE

You blinked and missed it.  Israel never agreed despite what press releases said.  Israel wants us to become involved so deep that we have boots on the ground.  At this point, Trump has committed treason for going along with Israel.

There never was a ceasefire, because  Trumpolini simply ignored the provisions of the 10 points he can't accept and claim victory.  He just needed an excuse to TACO from committing Genocide and gain 2 weeks to try and work up a plan that can get the Jarheads through the straight.  That is the tactical problem stopping the invasion idea.  Their first try on this they got hit and were forced to retreat back out into the Indian Ocean.

Any Boots on the Ground attempt will generate horrific losses. so he's currently stymied.  The only plausible military maneuver would be to use tactical nukes to clear the coastline, but that has obvious political problems.

Look for the market to reprice tomorrow.

RE

Iran and the U.S. have very different conceptions of whether Lebanon counts as part of the nascent cease-fire. After Donald Trump confirmed that in his view Israel and Lebanon are in a "separate skirmish," which conflicts with the view of Pakistan, the country that mediated the dispute, Iran showed its displeasure by closing the strait to oil tankers, and now the Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened military action against "aggressors in the region" (Israel) if the Lebanon attacks continue.

Diner Headline: Trumpolini's Operation Epic Fail  Negotiates Ceaseless Fire Agreement.

RE

Yolanda is a country.  Jules is a country.  And Ringo represents the Fascist States of America.
The first step in this cognitive test, is to correctly identify the countries that Yolanda and Jules represent.  Vincent is Saudi Arabia.  The fat man is the rest of the world.

The question is can Ringo keep Yolanda cool.  He did in the movie.  But that is where the analogy breaks down.  As in the movie, Ringo does not get the briefcase.  Ringo has to settle for the Saudi Sovereign Fund wallets from the other diners in the room.

This is a pretty solid rhyme if you correctly identify the country Jules is playing.

It breaks down only because Ringo can't keep his bitch cool.






Unlike in the movie, Yolanda calls the shots.  That is bad news.

Honey Bunny is a problem.




Regardless the glowing nuclear material in the briefcase does not change hands.

Ringo's mother does not like Yolanda.

And it's a rhyming day.


What fire begets this fire, like torches thrown into the straw?
If no one asks, then no one answers, that's how every empire falls

Low-key means continue and carry-on Donald.  You just told the world how evil you are again.

"Vice President J.D. Vance stated that Iran had a "legitimate misunderstanding" about Lebanon's inclusion in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, saying, "I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't."

Never have I read a more mealy-mouth admission of 'We Lied To Them,' it was all part of the performance.  If you meet a Buddha on the road who suggests Vance should be president, you know what to do.  We do not need this shape-shifting smokey-eyed actor who only plays the part of being a man.

Going through the motions, because hey whacha-gonna-do.  But as these men walk the red carpet they already know that Israel is not going to let Trump make peace.  These men are doing what they have to do, but they went to bed and woke up knowing that Trump wears a dog collar.

With the price dropping to $80 on the Ceaseless Fire, I think you can officially say Demand Destruction has already begun.  A lot of the world simply can't afford to buy oil at $100+/bbl.  Not getting enough bids.

RE

Still, the direction further out remains murky.  But the answer may be right in front of us: long-term structural volatility. The world has woken up to a new baseline of instability in the Middle East that won't go away so long as the current regime in Iran remains and the country can control or simply block the Strait of Hormuz. And that instability is bound to create price volatility.

Forget the volatility in oil prices.  Wait until the shortfalls in FOOD PRODUCTION start showing up next year.  The volatility won't just be in the markets.  It will be in the streets.

RE

That volume accounts for one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne traded oil.  Yet the destinations of those flows expose the asymmetry that ultimately doomed the strategy.

Here's a wild new projection for the result of the closure of the Hormuz straight!  This guy figures it's a doomed strategy since alternate routes will be built to move the oil and the FSoA will up its exports to cover the global shortfall inside a year or so.  By 5 years everything is back to normal and Iran is marginalized.  In a decade the regime collapses.

Most entertaining is that he thinks Trumpolini is a forward thinking strategic GENIUS!!! 🤪

"The Hormuz closure wasn't a surprise to any serious person, one might argue Trump turned what the enemy believed to be a leverage to a ticking time bomb trap the IRGC just walked into.

IRGC was never the end goal, China is."


Opinions welcome.

RE

In a decade the regime collapses.






By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.
By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.

New pipelines might relieve the oil transport some, won't do much for fertilizer though.  How many people will be left after 5 years of fertilizer shortages?

RE

For years, fossil fuel advocates spruiked oil, gas and coal as "reliable" energy. That narrative has been reversed. Fossil fuels have become expensive and unreliable, while renewables are cheap, reliable and secure.  For the first time ever, more than 50 nations will gather next week in Colombia to hash out how to wind down and end their dependence on coal, oil and gas. The history-making conference was planned before the Iran war. But this year's energy crisis has greatly raised the stakes.

Problem solved!  I was getting worried. 🙄

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 22, 2026, 05:31 PMProblem solved!  I was getting worried. 🙄

RE

And fertilizer is a by-product.👍

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.

A good one! They said the world would collapse in a decade back in 1970, but I think that was more global cooling, starvation and whatnot. But can't we think bigger than just a regime? I mean, how are you going to attract clicks from anyone other than a couple of us and the MIB unless you got all in with COOLER stuff?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 24, 2026, 02:33 PMA good one! They said the world would collapse in a decade back in 1970, but I think that was more global cooling, starvation and whatnot. But can't we think bigger than just a regime?

Doubtful this guy bought into Peak Oil.  He's almost certainly a Collapse Denier, an obvious idiot.  His whole theory is based on the premise that Trumpolini is a strategic genius and inside a decade all the the oil will be smoothly flowing again via new routes.  Anybody who buys this idea is a few BTUs short of melting an ice cube.  I'd hazard the guess his IQ is measured in the negative imaginary irrational numbers.  He's probably a geologist or oil trader.  lol.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 24, 2026, 06:21 PMDoubtful this guy bought into Peak Oil.

I've never claimed that everyone was equally ignorant on the topic. Just those that were willing to demonstrably prove it.

Quote from: REHe's almost certainly a Collapse Denier, an obvious idiot.  His whole theory is based on the premise that Trumpolini is a strategic genius and inside a decade all the the oil will be smoothly flowing again via new routes.

Strikes me as perfectly idiotic theory.

Quote from: REAnybody who buys this idea is a few BTUs short of melting an ice cube.

Or alternatively, he would fit right in with peak oilers circa 2000-2005 or so.

Quote from: REI'd hazard the guess his IQ is measured in the negative imaginary irrational numbers.

I would not. Low IQs are not required to be suckered into a theory, be it him, or PhD's who have their own collapse theories that come and go. Guy McPherson being just one example.

People of all IQ's make a decision to BELIEVE. If they have low IQs, they stop there. If they have PhD's, they weave a tale, mixing in facts, history, supposition and "what-ifs", with a hint of "and I've got a PhD" and presto!   Dr Colin Campbell...global peak oil...1990. ASPO in Europe with Colin and Ugo. And others. IQ had nothing to do with how they talked themselves into drawing a conclusion so easily known to be a crock.

Quote from: REHe's probably a geologist or oil trader.  lol.

RE

Certainly Colin was a geologist, and Ugo something like physical chemistry? McPherson wasn't a geologist either.

Oh yes...and I should mention...neither am I. But some people....they are so smart....they believe anything they think. Or find on LinkedIn. 😀😀 So in this regard, you are in some educated company even without a PhD, and also BELEIVING in your conclusions because, hey, you is smartz too!

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 25, 2026, 10:50 AM

Oh yes...and I should mention...neither am I. But some people....they are so smart....they believe anything they think. Or find on LinkedIn. 😀😀 So in this regard, you are in some educated company even without a PhD, and also BELEIVING in your conclusions because, hey, you is smartz too!

I too am an excellent driver.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 25, 2026, 10:50 AMPeople of all IQ's make a decision to BELIEVE. If they have low IQs, they stop there. If they have PhD's, they weave a tale, mixing in facts, history, supposition and "what-ifs", with a hint of "and I've got a PhD" and presto!  Dr Colin Campbell...global peak oil...1990. ASPO in Europe with Colin and Ugo. And others. IQ had nothing to do with how they talked themselves into drawing a conclusion so easily known to be a crock.

We are in agreement on this point certainly.  Also true is that having a Ph.D. doesn't necessarily mean you're very smart.  On just about any subject, if you have at least average intelligence and spend 4-6 years plodding through the subject and then slavishly follow your advisor's directions in the lab and get his order for coffee correct every morning, pay your bills on time at the bursar's office, they'll hand you your sheepskin at the end of it.  The really smart people never bother with this and understand that the real value of a college education are the parties, the girls, the drugs and the endlessly flowing booze. 😁  Another truth is that really smart people, like everyone else all have a price.  Offer them enough money and they'll make a very convincing case for just about any insane notion you care to promote, like for instance that smoking promotes longer lasting, harder erections and stronger orgasms.  Or that trannie women should be allowed to compete with cis women in a boxing ring. Or that burning fossil fuels has nothing to do with climate change.  Or that the war with Iran was a good idea because they are all Muslim towel head terrorists stuck in the middle ages.

All of which explains why I don't put any more value on what World Class Experts in any field have to say than anyone else.  Appeal to Authority is a logical fallacy that does nothing to demonstrate the truth of an argument.  Far as the various people who had a variety of Peak Oil theories are concerned, some were better than others, some were astoundingly bad, some were quite good.  Guy McStinksion was a clown of course, he had us all dead by 2016.  I've never been a fan of Ugo's belief that Solar can replace fossil fuels in time and maintain the current FSoA standard of living or population size.  Richard Heinberg's work was pretty good, and i've found good information from both Resilience.org & the Post Carbon Institute.  There's good and bad information out there, as in all things.  You have to separate the wheat from the chaff.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 25, 2026, 11:47 AMI too am an excellent driver.

Really? Do you mean that like a good or safe street driver? Or someone with extensive track time?

Quote from: RE on Apr 25, 2026, 12:09 PMThe really smart people never bother with this and understand that the real value of a college education are the parties, the girls, the drugs and the endlessly flowing booze. 😁 

Now THAT is pretty funny, and probably true based on my experience with frat boys and whatnot. I was married, never did drugs and whatnot, and don't drink. I guess I just learned stuff that later came in handy when showing up the PhD and true believer types who jsut went to school for booze and the girls. 

Quote from: REAnother truth is that really smart people, like everyone else all have a price.  Offer them enough money and they'll make a very convincing case for just about any insane notion you care to promote, like for instance that smoking promotes longer lasting, harder erections and stronger orgasms.

Really? So you don't believe in folks being ethical, the certainly of proven science without regard to someone paying you to play make believe?

Quote from: REOr that trannie women should be allowed to compete with cis women in a boxing ring.

Not sure what that has to do with anything. Had problems with trannys in the past or something?

Quote from: REOr that burning fossil fuels has nothing to do with climate change.  Or that the war with Iran was a good idea because they are all Muslim towel head terrorists stuck in the middle ages.

Oh now I get it. You are just doing the reheased littany of anti "party you don't like" stuff. Good thing I'm  not a Republican either. Not a dumbass Democrat either. I have reserved the right to be independent since 1992. 

Quote from: REAll of which explains why I don't put any more value on what World Class Experts in any field have to say than anyone else.

Understandable. After all, if you can't be one, then bash them. Quite a common reaction.

Quote from: REAppeal to Authority is a logical fallacy that does nothing to demonstrate the truth of an argument.

Quite true. But those who demonstrated the validity of their understanding by nothing more than the passage of some time, well, now we aren't talking about logical fallacies at all. Just prescience. Like....say...the opposite of what Ehrlich did. Or Campbell, McPherson, Hirsch, etc etc. Bu what did they know, getting those rubber stamped PhD's. 

Quote from: RERichard Heinberg's work was pretty good, and i've found good information from both Resilience.org & the Post Carbon Institute.
RE

Richard Heinberg? The amateur violin player who claimed that peak oil happened around 2008, and advocated that the government should immediately send/move suburbanites to the fields to grow food, as otherwise everyone was going to starve? He speaks well. As far as technical understanding...well....they say he is a good amateur violin player.

So you like college dropouts (he claimed he dropped out because he liked to smoke weed more, and played in a rock band (according to his interview on TOD) who more closely resembles the ideas of Pol Pot and Mao? Post Carbon in general (excluding Hughes of course....tell me....did North America run out of natural gas reserves by 2016 as he claimed?) isn't bad...as long as the topic has nothing to do with oil, and sticks with just making the world and environment better. Without blaming it on oil disappearing anyway. A decent environmental angle.

When you claimed you never had a major interest in peak oil, but more the overall doomer perspective across many topics, it makes sense you wouldn't know a decent geoscience based peak oil opinion from Joe Bob the nose picker at the local bar.

Some of my best friends were trannies.  They just shouldn't compete with cissies because they have different physiology.  Not a level playing field.

Far as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones.  Collective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea.  Purging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea.  Abolishment of capitalism also good.  Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.

Suburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper.  Starting now would be a good idea also, since such a massive transition of lifestyle and relocation of people isn't going to happen overnight.

Never claimed to not have an interest in Peak Oil, just that it's not what led me to become interested in collapse.  Economics did that.  I've never been married to any particular time line on it, just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by.  It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.

Anyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world.  Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are planting their crops, and we'll see what the yields are like at the end of summer.  Where it goes from here is anybody's guess, mine would be that next year will be worse than this year, which was already pretty bad.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 25, 2026, 06:10 PMFar as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones.

Indeed. And it only cost tens of millions of people's their lives. Around here the MIB occasionally deciding to erase posts that are meaningless in the greater context is taken quite seriously, but idiots running countries starving their citizens by the tens of millions? They had some good ideas to make up for that. Which of their good ideas balanced this scale when it comes to their people?

Quote from: RECollective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea.

Stalin thought the same, and handed Ukraine the Holodomor. When will these "good ideas" that in the past just murdered tens of millions finally work do you think?

Quote from: REPurging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea.  Abolishment of capitalism also good.  Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.

Yeah, not worried about purging universities, but more starving everyone in sight with how well these ideas worked out in the past. But hey, at least the rich and privileged got spanked as well!

Quote from: RESuburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper.

So you are with Heinberg, Pol Pot, Mao and Stalin when it comes to this "back to farming" idea? What happens to folks unable to participate like you, just bullets to the head or a gas chamber?

Quote from: RE....just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by.  It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.

Dependence on finite resources is WHAT HUMANS HAVE DONE to date. It isn't as though humans all got together at a big confernece during the hunting and gathering stage and decided to stay that way, knowing in advance what dependency on non-renewables would entail. Although any economist could also argue )and do) that this dependency is required to leverage to a future we can see right now (even if it is the early stages) of renewable energy, fusion waiting inthe wings, an electrified world, the ability to increase recovery factors and efficiencies in accessing those non-renewable resources, and so on and so forth. Economics isn't a physical or natural science for a reason, but it does allow for GREAT storytelling.

Quote from: REAnyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world.

Pick a year anywhere between Jan 1 1900 and today and I'll come up with a deep doo-doo story. Dooming is what doomers do, if not the Mayan Calendar, then peak oil. If not that, then Yellowstone. Continue ad infinitum. "Being in deep do do" is a throwaway perpetual motion machine among the doomer legions. You've still got a working brain, you can at least pretend you aren't the only one in the room with one.

10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short.  Prior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

AI Overview

Based on estimates by agricultural scientists such as Vaclav Smil, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process (early 20th century) was approximately 1.6 to 2 billion people, or roughly a quarter the population that can be supported today with synthetic fertilizers.

The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.  Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 11:24 AM10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short. 

Sure. And when global cooling kicks in a big chunk of the Earth's population will die-off, as claimed in 1970 by folks with degrees in the field and whatnot. Doomers of the day as well I imagine. Folks all agreed.

And your angle, based within the overall concept of Apocalyticism, has been around for millennium. So now you want to argue fertilizer? The only good news being, if you are right THIS time (as compared to all the others) then at LEAST we'll get enough of a population reduction to actually be able to claim some form of collapse is happening. FINALLY the doomers might have got one right.

Then again....the usual might happen. Folks adapt, adjust, find workarounds, and compensate. The things that Doomers apparently never factor into their proclamations. Have you?

Quote from: REPrior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

COOL! And before people discovered black rocks that could burn, the carrying capacity was even less! And then what happened? EXACTLY what I previously suggested, listed nicely on Page 18 of my copy of Catton's Overshoot. He might have been a xenophobe at heart, but at the very least you should know that your argument has been blown out of the water by every thing listed on that page. And your only argument around it is claiming it can't happen again? You aren't that stupid, so either you are assuming I am (which is a terrible habit of yours) or you already know you can't and just want to pretend everyone else really is stupid.

Quote from: REThe goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.

Yes, I'm sure the 10's if not 100 million folks murdered during the last totalitarian experiments in this process just didn't try hard enough, only their LIVES depending on it and everything. Not enough motivation you figure, what is your plan for motivating people to grow food that is better than telling them their lives depended on it?

Quote from: REHad it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

It was followed through. All those folks died, and the fearless leaders who liked your idea, changed their minds when it turned out that just everyone died. 

Quote from: REThe Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

Well then there we go! More Castro's and Cubans, and murderous Jews, and we're in business!

Here is my bet. Catton's opinion, resembling yours, is that a process that has happened throughout millenia has suddenly stopped. Because HE, and YOU, can't see NOW the next evolution. That is mostly a lack of imagination, a sense of absolutism in terms of what is today in terms of technology, will not change. Both you, and he, apparently lack the vision to cast progress into the future. In your case it is probably just because it fits a personal belief, because you aren't stupid. Which means you, perhaps like Catton, suffer from the same psychological hiccup. Catton, after detailing all the prior multiple phase changes...decided that well...NOW....it must stop. You are are both smart, he even published the prior phase changes, but both of you, because you can't see it in the moment, pretend it can't happen again.

Amusingly, odds are, it is already happening. It is why peak oil predictions were wrong. Both of you lack whatever that perspective is that allows an analytic projection into the future that isn't just doom. You are just repeating what the experts claimed in 1970...and for the same reason. The inability to see the next phase change.

Hubbert screwed the pooch because he, and others, couldn't see beyond the data, geology and history. They skipped the economic component. Like Ehrlich, he missed some pretty basic economic concepts.

Let me give you just one pie in the sky example. Recovery factors in oil and gas fields were once upon a time X%. With time and technology, they increased to Y%. A change in economics and technology. This opened up potentially hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil, if not trillions ultimately. EVs arriving on the world stage and in mass production, and their ever decreasing costs. Batteries that rely less on critical minerals. Solar panels on roof tops all across America. A paradigm shift in where enegy is produced, and from what. Fusion is a good example. Not here yet, but the instant it is? Another shift.

 

 
Trump's WWIII
 
Trump's clusterfuck of faults, and his bad decisions has started a tsunami that will smash onto America's shores in the months to come.  For now the waters are calm, but this state of affairs will not remain.

True it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PMTrue it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE

The Soviet Union after 1923 was a degenerated workers' state.  Property was formally nationalized, but political power had been usurped by a privileged bureaucracy that pushed aside soviet democracy and the working class.  Trotsky rejected the sloppy equation of 'Stalinism = socialism.'  as Stalinism was a counterrevolutionary distortion arising from the objective contradictions produced by the material conditions of the time.

Now what will the objective contradictions generated by the material conditions Trump gives to us do.  The contradictions will resolve.  Such are the physics of real life.  How the contradictions resolve will not be pleasant.

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PMTrue it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.

Worked fine? Really? The USSR had like a average lifespan of its citizens of like 57 years old under Communism, and the last time K-Dog was talking about the wonders of such a system I posted a picture of a Soviet era kitchen and asked him if he thought the wife would think that was juset jim dandy fine. As expected when uncomfortable truths are so easily revealed, I believe the post generated no answer, such are the consequences of well thought out examples.

You'd be dead already in Stalin's system, you might think that is fine, but it wasn't American's fleeing the US to live in such a fine and upstanding system back in the day.

Quote from: REAlso worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

If you minimize "early problems" as the greatest manmade dieoff in the history, sure, look how great Tibet, Hong Kong, the Uyghurs love the system, and Taiwan isn't arming itself to try and keep subjugation away from them, but to steal American military tech first because they LOVE the idea of being Chinese and are just faking enjoying a free market economy.

Quote from: REYou conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.

Only because communists appear to love being totalitarian states. Why aren't you regaling me with stories of how well the North Koreans have it compared to their poor, downtrodden southern neighbors? Are all South Koreans yearning to move North to be free of their capitalist overlords?

Quote from: REThey are not one in the same thing.

I agree. Too bad they just LOOK that way sometimes. Like, in between killing off millions because, you know, totalitarians LOVE Communism because it is GREAT for totaltarian rulers to make everyone do what they want.

Quote from: RECapitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Capitalism has some MASSIVE faults, no one is claiming it doesn't. But some might be arguing it is the least shittiest, plus as the Presidency goes, so can go the US. So when the Orange One's time is done, maybe we'll see a bit more normality return. Maybe.

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 07:40 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

Yeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Doomers don't ever like the status quo, I get that, it oozes from their pores and into their words and ideas.But surely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it? Have ANY of your establishment complaints changed since since King George II of the early 21st century arrived other than the names involved?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMsurely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

I didn't have any establishment complaints when King George II of the early 21st century arrived, I wasn't born yet.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 27, 2026, 05:42 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMsurely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

A possibility. Another one is that humour is something easier to interpret in person, involving expressions, tone of voice, more subtle physical clues, etc etc.

You just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMYeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Dismissing "communism" as a failed utopian dream misses the essential point.

Marxism isn't an abstract wish list.  It is a materialist analysis of how society actually works. Your terrible outcomes weren't inherent to socialism itself, but were the consequences of specific historical circumstances and political errors.  Bureaucracy degenerated workers' power, and sabotaged the international workers revolution.  But that was then, and this is now.

The core socialist aims collective control over production to end class exploitation remain fundamentally sound, and are analytically necessary.

The question isn't whether socialist goals are desirable (they are), but how can these goals be consciously achieved by the working class.  Using democratic means.  Avoiding the pitfalls and errors that lead to authoritarianism.

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 07:03 PMYou just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

You need clues to figure out if something is funny?  It's not detective work, you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes.

RE

 

I wouldn't count on this lowering the price of oil anytime soon.  Down the line some though, Demand Destruction could do that.  It will however make the whole energy market more volatile and less predictable.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 27, 2026, 07:09 PMDismissing "communism" as a failed utopian dream misses the essential point.

I didn't dismiss it that way. I just compared RE's perspective on it to the reality of it. Theory and practice are two different things.

Quote from: K-DogMarxism isn't an abstract wish list.  It is a materialist analysis of how society actually works. Your terrible outcomes weren't inherent to socialism itself, but were the consequences of specific historical circumstances and political errors.  Bureaucracy degenerated workers' power, and sabotaged the international workers revolution.  But that was then, and this is now.

Sure. And now the Communists have forced labor camps for the Uyghurs, are making sure that Hong Kong folks aren't so thrilled with their switch from capitalism to being ChiComs again, want to make sure that the capitalists in Taiwan, doing quite well for themselves, are brought to heel and properly....educated...and Tibet certainly understands that difference betweem being free or being...under someone elses bootheel.

China is certainly a long way from Mao killing off 10's of millions in food experiments, so in your mind are they "proper" socialists nowadays? The kind you would happily give up your 4 wheeled status symbols for?

Quote from: K-DogThe core socialist aims collective control over production to end class exploitation remain fundamentally sound, and are analytically necessary.

In theory. And if we are talking socialism like Scandanavian countries as compared to China and North Korea, I'd pick Scandanavia for sure.

Quote from: K-DogThe question isn't whether socialist goals are desirable (they are), but how can these goals be consciously achieved by the working class.  Using democratic means.  Avoiding the pitfalls and errors that lead to authoritarianism.

Having not asked a question, but just responded to RE and his enthusiasm for a particular socio-economic system, the results of which are already in the history books.

And I think we are currently in some form of mismanaged oligarchy more than anything else. And the oligarchs are going to do their best to keep it that way.

Quote from: RE on Apr 27, 2026, 10:11 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 07:03 PMYou just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

You need clues to figure out if something is funny?

I met you before, you pretending to not remember being irrelevant. You had a habit, of saying something, then having this dry little laugh as though what you said was amusing enough to warrant it. I didn't laugh at all, as it was just conversation, and you weren't being funny. It was just some mannerism. You do it in your videos as well.

I don't need clues to figure out what is funny. It is an easy thing, you know it when you see it. In person, or in your videos, you see it everywhere. I do not.

Quote from: REIt's not detective work, you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes.

RE

Nothing to do with Sherlock Holmes. I didn't laugh when you were yucking it up over....whatever...in Inman either.

Granted, my sense of humor is somewhat idiosyncratic and not appreciated by everyone.  The reason I don't remember you is probably because you didn't laugh at my jokes and said nothing worth remembering.  I do remember vaguely meeting a somber little man in disheveled clothing I though might be a homeless schizophrenic off his meds and discussing electric scooters.  He didn't identify himself though, I figured he couldn't remember his name.

RE

QuoteAnd now the Communists have forced labor camps for the Uyghurs

Following ethnic rioting, and a series of deadly terror attacks within and outside Xinjiang which Beijing blamed on Uyghurs, President Xi Jinping launched a "Strike Hard Campaign against Violent Extremism" in 2014 that framed Uyghur identity as a security threat.

Seems that their supreme leader is responsible for their camps.  Communism would not have a supreme leader.  Communism has soviets.  Or are you just going to say you never asked a question about Uyghurs now.  As you seem to not know the difference between authoritarianism and communism that would be your next move.

Quote from: RE on Apr 28, 2026, 06:19 PMGranted, my sense of humor is somewhat idiosyncratic and not appreciated by everyone.  The reason I don't remember you is probably because you didn't laugh at my jokes and said nothing worth remembering.

Both of those conditions are likely to be true, you didn't tell any jokes, just threw out those little laughs on occasion as though you had, and I didn't say anything worth remembering.

I was there to see if the money you were investing in that little SUN exercise had any chance of being something. You did put significant resources into it if memory serves. After it was all over, the videos of your drunken scooter/ebike excapades, the commentary on the size of the liquor bill for the sales pitch on local political "intelligentsia" (otherwise known as "southern crackers" perhaps?) all seemed a bit...pricey for the final result.

Wendy gave me the impression that the entire exercise was designed to find support for a theme park showing people how great it would be to live Amish or something similar. As though taking a trip to Amish country wouldn't suffice?

Quote from: REI do remember vaguely meeting a somber little man in disheveled clothing I though might be a homeless schizophrenic off his meds and discussing electric scooters.  He didn't identify himself though, I figured he couldn't remember his name.

I've got a solid 6-8 inches on you, and probably 100# at that point in time. And you never asked me to identify myself, I certainly wasn't about to hand you a business card knowing your propensity for cyber stalking. Although Haniel was gone by then I believe and you hadn't found a tech replacement to do your MIB routine on Diner members.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 29, 2026, 06:45 AMOr are you just going to say you never asked a question about Uyghurs now.  As you seem to not know the difference between authoritarianism and communism that would be your next move.

Can't say I've asked many questions about Uyghurs, no. As far as not knowing the difference between communism and authoritarianism, well, we all have our specialties. Political distinctions are interesting to some I suppose, not sure why, but to each their own. My specialty pays quite well. Do you get paid well for knowing nuances of various political definitions/organizations, or is it just a hobby to one-up other politically involved hobbyists?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2026, 04:29 PMI've got a solid 6-8 inches on you, and probably 100# at that point in time.

Must have been someone else then.    I don't remember talking to any 6'2" Fat Guys, so if I talked to you, it wasn't very memorable.  Can't say for sure whether I told a joke or not, but it's irrelevant.  You don't recognize my jokes without clues, and I don't hand out clues, especially to fat trolls stalking southern redneck town fairs incognito.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2026, 04:46 PMMy specialty pays quite well.

Bragging about how much you get paid is a violation of the CoC.  3 Days in the Cooler.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 29, 2026, 06:51 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2026, 04:29 PMI've got a solid 6-8 inches on you, and probably 100# at that point in time.

Must have been someone else then. I don't remember talking to any 6'2" Fat Guys, so if I talked to you, it wasn't very memorable.

More like 5'10". You are quite short. And I told you, there wasn't supposed to be anything memorable. I'm really good at what I do, if only demonstrated by the quality of my diet not changing at all in these hard times. Why did Wendy think you were setting up an amusement park to demonstrate how cool it was to be Amish? And you are pimping the idea in FARM country...to the LOCALS?

You just seemed to be there to entertain folks with that electric scooter thing.

Quote from: RECan't say for sure whether I told a joke or not, but it's irrelevant. 

I don't think you told any jokes. You just said stuff, and then gave that random laugh as though you did. Again, as I said before but perhaps you missed, it shows up all over the place in your videos as well. And when you talk. No jokes needed.

Quote from: REYou don't recognize my jokes without clues, and I don't hand out clues, especially to fat trolls stalking southern redneck town fairs incognito.
RE

I don't recognize random laughter for whatever it is a symptom of either. And I was fat then. Lost 50# in the past 2 years though.

How long before you vast experience with suits and 3D printers is going to deliver the real world result of better tasting protein and more quantities of it?

Quote from: TDoS on May 02, 2026, 07:49 PMYou are quite short.

Either you can't add or you're a poor judge  of height.   I'm not Joe Pesci.  I'm the same height as Tom Cruise. 😀

RE

Quote from: RE on May 03, 2026, 01:24 AM

Quote from: TDoS on May 02, 2026, 07:49 PMYou are quite short.

Either you can't add or you're a poor judge  of height.   I'm not Joe Pesci.  I'm the same height as Tom Cruise. 😀

RE

Whatever you say. I am making my estimate based on how short you were compared to me. The 12 year old who came up and asked about your little electric skateboard thing was about your height, so my estimate seems pretty reasonable. 

Quote from: TDoS on May 03, 2026, 06:54 AMWhatever you say. I am making my estimate based on how short you were compared to me. The 12 year old who came up and asked about your little electric skateboard thing was about your height, so my estimate seems pretty reasonable. 

I was sitting on the scooter, dimwit.

RE

Quote from: RE on May 03, 2026, 09:55 AMI was sitting on the scooter, dimwit.
RE

No. You weren't. You had to get on the thing to show the kid who wandered by that you could do feats of daring do with it. All dressed in black, sort of like a small Johnny Cash. And how would you know anyway? You are the one claiming you don't even remember me being there and soaking more than half an hour of your time? And then I talked to Wendy, noticed Dave and Monsta sitting near her tent, and John explaining something undoubtedly bamboo-ish to others. Collected some literature. And then I left.

It was quite illustrative, in terms of getting a bead on who I had been dealing with.

He said, she said. 🙄

At the time, I COULDN'T stand up without having something to  brace myself against, and even then only briefly.  Certainly did not stand talking to a boring fat man.

RE

Quote from: RE on May 03, 2026, 01:04 PMHe said, she said. 🙄

Not at all. One of us has already described the events because we remember them. And the other has claimed no memory of said meeting. Your statement is contradicted by your previous claim of not remembering me at all. Tsk tsk.

Quote from: REAt the time, I COULDN'T stand up without having something to  brace myself against, and even then only briefly.

Well, the "briefly" could certainly be less than 30 minutes or so, as for a minute or two you were wobbling around demonstrating the toy like nature of that little electric scooter thing was when you weren't standing.

Perhaps you were still loaded from all the partying that weekend, and you can explain being able to stand as you were half in the bag?

Quote from: RECertainly did not stand talking to a boring fat man.
RE

Like I said, you can't claim to remember something when you've already claimed not to. I can only relate the facts of the matter. Facts are handy when working as a scientist. And they are easier to have when not half baked from a party masquerading as a sales pitch for a Amish park of some sort.

How well did your memory hold up after those cocaine partys you've described back in your Wall Street days? Any better than just boozing it up all weekend with friends?   

Quote from: TDoS on May 03, 2026, 07:17 PMHow well did your memory hold up after those cocaine partys you've described back in your Wall Street days? Any better than just boozing it up all weekend with friends?   

It works just fine.  It is selective though.  With people, I remember all the really hot women I ever met and anyone who had interesting ideas to chat about.  Anybody else is mostly a crap shoot, except for rude, fat, boring, stupid, anonymous and ugly people who I nearly always forget.  More than 1 of those attributes increases the chance you will be forgotten.  If the person also has interesting ideas besides being ugly for instance, it increase the chance I remember them.  So it's no surprise you didn't get a storage bin in the archives.
(https://media.tenor.com/YMLrbdFSIqAAAAAM/papershredder-seth-meyers.gif)

RE

 

Meanwhile, the price of Oil is currently at $75/bbl.  This of course because now that Chump & the I-a-toldya have electronically signed an MoU that nobody has seen and millions of barrels are now streaming out of Hormuz on their way to Happy Motorists aaround the world, right?  I seriously doubt this.

What is much more likely is that Demand Destruction is beginning to set in, growth has slowed to a snail's pace and a recession is now being priced in to the futures trade.  Oil is selling at $74 because they're not finding enough buyers even for the restricted amounts now currently available at prices of $80 and up, so they have to lower the price.  This also why they are slow to invest in drilling new wells and ramping up production.  The price won't crank back up until real physical shortages start appearing in markets that can afford to pay the high prices, like the FSoA.  Supply & Demand.  This is still a ways off.  How long?  Maybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.  Ideally, skyrocketing prices and physical shortages will show up in October, a month before the elections.  That would seal Chump's fate, if the elections aren't rigged or cancelled.

RE

QuoteWhat is much more likely is that Demand Destruction is beginning to set in.

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fproxy.markets.businessinsider.com%2Fcst%2FMarketsInsiderV2%2FShare%2Fchart.aspx%3Finstruments%3D300002%2C5%2C0%2C333%26style%3Dinstrument_double_precision%26period%3DOneYear%26timezone%3DEastern%2520Standard%2520Time&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=4c4b7cc78b0f6cc80146420db8cadeb542fdf7e3ef74a9292c2e8f700915cb76)

Suppliers need a bargain since current energy prices can't be supported.  You are not going to pay a lot for something you can't sell at a high enough price to cover your costs.  The question is, is this a lagging indicator of economic conditions or is it a leading indicator of market expectations.  Or both.  It looks to be both.

Sort of like telling the waitress you will wait for the fresh pot of coffee.

Looking at the graph it looks like the demand destruction was manifesting as a straight line down.

Quote from: RE on Jun 17, 2026, 12:38 AM
What is much more likely is that Demand Destruction is beginning to set in, growth has slowed to a snail's pace and a recession is now being priced in to the futures trade.  Oil is selling at $74 because they're not finding enough buyers even for the restricted amounts now currently available at prices of $80 and up, so they have to lower the price.  This also why they are slow to invest in drilling new wells and ramping up production.  The price won't crank back up until real physical shortages start appearing in markets that can afford to pay the high prices, like the FSoA.  Supply & Demand.  This is still a ways off.  How long?  Maybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.  Ideally, skyrocketing prices and physical shortages will show up in October, a month before the elections.  That would seal Chump's fate, if the elections aren't rigged or cancelled.

RE

You heard it here first, as usual! 😀

 

"Demand" Stats are a lot like measurements of Unemployment.  The people who want to buy it are no longer in the workforce being measured.  If you stop buying it because you can't afford it, you no longer are considered part of the demand for oil.  Makes sense, right? lol.

RE

QuoteMaybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.

He has talked about his ability to do a world class analysis  many times.  But from his perspective, to get oi from the ground all you do is put a straw in the ground and suck.  And remember he only talks about his abilities, and he never has demonstrated jack shit.  If you can show me any of his posts that hint at any world class knowledge, I'd like to see them.

And what exactly is 'jack shit (https://greensdictofslang.com/entry/i7ddwgq)'?  Inquiring minds want to know.

 

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 10, 2026, 11:52 PM

QuoteMaybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.

He has talked about his ability to do a world class analysis  many times.  But from his perspective, to get oi from the ground all you do is put a straw in the ground and suck.  And remember he only talks about his abilities, and he never has demonstrated jack shit.  If you can show me any of his posts that hint at any world class knowledge, I'd like to see them.

Not being an expert, the fact I identified Demand Destruction as the reason for the price of oil not reflecting the supply disruption a full month before the IEA published their expectations could be attributed to being a lucky guess.  Since I'm feeling lucky, I'll make a few more guesses.

Both the attacks on Russian and Iranian Oil supply are being directed at the behest of the Oil majors.  They are only tangentially because of Ukraine's persecution of ethnic Russians in Donbass and Crimea or Iran's Nuke development program.  They needed to get this supply off line in order to raise the price enough to bring the unconventional Oil in the FSoA, Canada and Brasil up to a profitable margin.  In the high $70s, they just about do that.  Where it was at in the low $60s they were bleeding money and capital for more drilling was drying up.

They have successfully killed Demand all across the poor countries in SE Asia and Africa.  This  will correlate directly to killing people, and the Demand won't be coming back to those places anytime soon.  They can't keep the price much above this without killing demand (and more people) in the slightly wealthier middle countries like Southern Europe and in South America and have the same effect.  Kill TOO MUCH Demand and there will be an oversupply of refining infrastructure that would have to be shut in.

China, which gets most of it's Oil from Russia and Iran has been insulated from the problems their neighbors have been facing because they maintained a large strategic reserve will at some point in the not too distant future need to start refilling those storage tanks to keep their industrial machine running.  This will likely occur before the Ruskies can fix all their broken hardware or the Iranians can star shipping Oil out in the quantities necessary.  That will put price pressure back on the market, and there will be another round of DD in wealthier countries.  Actual supply shortages will  result i more political upheavals.

War currently limited to Russian and Iranian infrastructure will expand to other countries.  Look for refineries and shipping ports being attacked in SA and Europe by Russians and Chinese proxies.  Possibly in the FSoA as well.  Neither country can allow the FSoA to remain operational selling oil while they are being bombed out of the market.

RE

QuoteBoth the attacks on Russian and Iranian Oil supply are being directed at the behest of the Oil majors.  They are only tangentially because of Ukraine's persecution of ethnic Russians in Donbass and Crimea or Iran's Nuke development program.  They needed to get this supply off line in order to raise the price enough to bring the unconventional Oil in the FSoA, Canada and Brasil up to a profitable margin.

Depending on how you define behest I'll agree.  Passive-agressive behest can be as simple as doing nothing.

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%2Fid%2FOIP.YSkQCD8hlwVcoP_lUtM_QAHaHa%3Fr%3D0%26pid%3DApi&f=1&ipt=c4e6e42a9228990d3d9a327579d7fb13f40032764277ff22a80c040c62f1fb1f&ipo=images)

In fact considering that much of America is populated by moral zero know-nothings, many would agree that the oil companies doing this would be a good thing.  I do not.

Quote from: RE on Jun 17, 2026, 12:38 AMSupply & Demand.  This is still a ways off.  How long?  Maybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis. 
RE

Of course I can. But you can't afford my hourly rate to get it.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 11, 2026, 07:09 AMIn fact considering that much of America is populated by moral zero know-nothings, many would agree that the oil companies doing this would be a good thing.  I do not.[/color]

I agree with American know-nothings. After all, 50% of Americans are below average in intelligence. And 99% of peak oilers don't know anything about oil or the geosciences. Interesting skewed distribution there....with a 50/50 intelligence split, how do 99% of peak oilers arrive on the wrong side of that 50/50 split?

Quote from: TDoS on Jul 12, 2026, 07:56 AM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 11, 2026, 07:09 AMIn fact considering that much of America is populated by moral zero know-nothings, many would agree that the oil companies doing this would be a good thing.  I do not.[/color]

I agree with American know-nothings. After all, 50% of Americans are below average in intelligence. And 99% of peak oilers don't know anything about oil or the geosciences. Interesting skewed distribution there....with a 50/50 intelligence split, how do 99% of peak oilers arrive on the wrong side of that 50/50 split?

How do 99% of peak oilers arrive on the wrong side of that 50/50 split?

Insulting other diners violates the code of conduct.  More time off for you, five days.

Enjoy.

Also: If we can't afford your hourly rate, we don't want it.

Quote from: TDoS on Jul 12, 2026, 07:52 AMOf course I can. But you can't afford my hourly rate to get it.

Doing just fine without it. 😀  Wouldn't even waste Other People's Money for your opinion. 😝

RE

 

The orange baboon rages out of control.

 

Cue Demand Destruction in Southern Europe and Fuel Shortages in South America.  $80+ Oil is a price only a few countries can support, and not for very long.  Add in the Credit Crisis shaping up in CRE and the imminent Popping of the AI Bubble and it adds up to the Perfect Storm and a Financial Tsunami that will make 2008 look like the good old days.  Now all we need is a good trigger event.  Maybe Elon's new Rocket will pull a Challenger.  😀

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Shuttle_Challenger_explosion.gif/330px-Shuttle_Challenger_explosion.gif)

RE

Escalation in West Asia: Iran Strikes US Facilities in Oman and Yemen Targets Saudi Arabia

A Report by Demetri Lceris for Reason to Resist
July 14, 2026 – Montreal, Canada


Introduction

Good day. This is Demetri Lceris coming to you from Montreal, Canada for Reason to Resist on July 14th, 2026.

Within the past 24 to 48 hours, the hot war on Iran has not only resumed but has escalated in at least two important respects. First, Iran attacked US military facilities in Oman—a country with which it has been trying to reach an agreement on future management of the Strait of Hormuz. Second, after Saudi forces bombed the airport in Sana, Yemen in the past 48 hours, Yemeni forces struck back inside Saudi Arabia.

Before we get into it, please remember to like and share this video if you find it to be informative. If you're not already a subscriber to Reason to Resist, please do become one and help us to expand the reach of our unapologetic on-the-ground resistance journalism.

I should also mention that I am wearing for the first time today during a recording some of our newly offered merchandise. If you are in a position to support the expansion of our on-the-ground journalism—something we think is extremely important for the alternative media space—you can help us by purchasing some merchandise. You can figure out how to do that by looking at the description to this video.
Context: Recent Reporting from Iran

I'm back in Montreal now after having spent the better part of 10 days in Iran, primarily to cover the funeral of the martyred Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but also—and I think most importantly—to talk about the attitude amongst Iranians toward the now-failed negotiations with the United States and the resumption of war.

If you haven't seen our reporting from Iran over the past 10 days or so, please do check it out, because it will reveal to you vitally important facts that you are not going to be getting from any corporate media outlet in the West. I can assure you of that.

It's good to be back in Montreal. I have family and friends here, and I haven't been here in some time. But at the same moment, I must confess that I'm sad to have left behind the many wonderful friends I have made in Iran and also comrades in Greece where I have spent much of the last few months.
The Attack on Sana International Airport

Yesterday, an Iranian civilian aircraft attempted to transport to Yemen officials of the Ansarallah government in Sana who had attended the funeral of the martyred supreme leader of Iran. As the aircraft—piloted by an Iranian crew—approached the airport in Sana, Saudi warplanes attacked that airport.

The Ansarallah political bureau issued a statement about that attack, which reads:

    "In a dangerous escalatory step, the criminal Saudi regime bombed Sana International Airport in an attempt to prevent our delegation from returning to their homeland, but it failed. The crime of targeting Sana International Airport constitutes a blatant act of aggression against our people, a flagrant violation of sovereignty, and a clear breach of international laws and conventions."

I can assure you that those are all correct statements of law. The statement continues:

    "The targeting of Sana International Airport reflects the level of hatred and criminality harbored by the Saudi regime backed by the United States toward our people. The attack comes within the framework of implementing the American desire to maintain the unjust blockade imposed on our people for more than 10 years."

By the way, that blockade has caused immense suffering, brought the population to the brink of famine several years ago, and in my view constitutes evidence of genocidal intent by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates against the people of Yemen.

The statement goes on and says the policy of force, arrogance, and supremacy pursued by the Saudi regime backed by the United States will achieve no results and its fate will be failure.

If anybody was harboring any illusions that the Saudi autocracy is trying to play a passive role in this criminal war of aggression—not just against Iran, but the whole of the Axis of Resistance—I hope that this development will bring those illusions to an end. The Saudis are fully complicit and actively supporting the criminal and genocidal efforts of the United States and Israel to destroy legitimate resistance to their brutal domination of the region. I think that is now clear beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Despite their efforts—and as the Ansarallah statement indicated—the Saudi efforts to stop the civilian aircraft failed. It did land in Yemen, albeit not in Sana because of the damage inflicted on the airport. It landed instead in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
Ansarallah's Response and Retaliatory Strikes

The response of Ansarallah was swift and decisive. It began with Ansarallah publishing a video of airports in Saudi Arabia which it considered to be legitimate targets as a result of this aggression. The video also identified Saudi oil infrastructure on the coast—I believe that's the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, but it also might be infrastructure on the Persian Gulf Coast—as legitimate targets.

No one should doubt the ability of Ansarallah to strike any and all of those targets, because they have done that successfully in the past, targeting within Saudi Arabia.

Very shortly after this statement was issued threatening retaliation, Ansarallah forces published a video of missile launches towards the Saudi autocracy. Then video emerged of an explosion at or near the Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia.

There were reports of damage at Saudi airports. Yemeni and regional media reported that Ansarallah launched missile and drone strikes targeting the Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia's Asir region, with reports claiming flights at the airport have been suspended. Regional outlets including Iraq's Al-Ahad TV reported explosions in Asir and said a missile struck the airport. They also cited a Saudi-led coalition spokesperson claiming the incoming missiles were intercepted by air defenses.

According to the same report, Saudi authorities have restricted the publication of photos and videos from Abha Airport following the incident. Riyadh has not issued an official statement on the reported attack or any damage to the airport—at least that was the case as of a few hours ago.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait and Global Economic Implications

The US-Arab dictatorships escalating aggressions against the Axis of Resistance in my view make the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait—which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—a virtual inevitability at this stage. I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.

When I say closure, I want to be clear that typically Ansarallah has not restricted all traffic through the Bab al-Mandab. What it does is restrict what it regards as complicit maritime traffic—vessels of the United States, Israel, or affiliated with the United States or Israel, traveling to or from ports in the genocidal Israeli entity, principally the Eilat port but also any Mediterranean ports. Vessels of other Western nations affiliated with other Western nations would also be subjected to a partial closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait because of the complicity of Western nations in the genocidal crimes of Israel and the United States.

If that hasn't happened already, I think it is very likely to happen in the near immediate future, which is going to greatly exacerbate the already highly elevated risk of a global economic crisis because of the importance of the goods—both commodities and finished goods—that are transported through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, either coming from the Suez Canal or heading towards the Suez Canal and ultimately into the Mediterranean.

If the world has to deal with the closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab simultaneously, we are going to be in a world of pain, especially if those closures persist for a significant period of time.
Iran Strikes US Military Facilities in Oman

On Monday of this week, local media reported that Iranian projectiles fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran had struck a US Navy logistical hub in Oman that handles fuel resupply operations. My understanding is that those US facilities in Oman had not been targeted up until now.

The fact that Iran is willing to now target those facilities in Oman should be taken as an expression of Iranian government discontent with the Omani regime's more recent forms of cooperation with the United States. By that I'm referring specifically to the opening up of an alternative route for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that hugs the Omani coastline. That alternative route was established with the consent and cooperation of the Omani regime and was intended to subvert Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Make no mistake: Iran's ongoing control of the Strait of Hormuz is of existential importance to Iran. If it loses control of the Strait of Hormuz—and I'm quite sure that it won't, despite all of the violence—its negotiating position would be greatly weakened and it would become much more vulnerable to the genocidal warfare of Israel and the United States. The control of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian military is the best protection by far that Iran has from its own destruction at the hands of the US and Israeli regimes.

The Omani regime now has a new reality to deal with because of its own complicity in these crimes and its refusal to do, frankly, what would be in the interest of its own people—namely to set up a management regime within the Strait of Hormuz that results in vessels going through the strait having to pay a reasonable fee to Oman and Iran. Its refusal to cooperate in that regard is making it a legitimate target because, after all, the US military is using Omani facilities to carry out its crimes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

I do understand and agree that the Omani regime is stuck between Iraq and a hard place. After all, when it indicated—albeit in diplomatic language—that it was going to cooperate with Iran, the psychopath in the White House openly threatened to blow up Oman. But there's a simple solution here—maybe it's not so simple, but it is a solution for the Omani regime: to bring to an end the US military presence in Oman, which is its sovereign right. If it's unwilling to do that and it's going to try to weaken the greatest form of leverage that Iran has to protect itself, it should not be surprised if it becomes a party to this war, at least in the sense that US facilities on its territory are going to be attacked.

I think we're probably going to see a lot more of this in the future, to the detriment of the interests of the Omani people.
IRGC Statement and Military Operations

The Iranian military has continued to strike US bases in many other parts of the region as retaliation for the ongoing US strikes on southern Iran.

An IRGC statement detailed the destruction of American military facilities and infrastructure in Bahrain and long-range radar systems in the Sultanate of Oman. According to the statement, the decisive and powerful operations carried out by the Iranian armed forces have left the American military in a state of helplessness.

In its latest attacks, the American military targeted an agricultural water pumping station in the city of Mashar—a move that demonstrates its hostility toward the people of Iran. In addition to targeting American military facilities and infrastructure in the Juffair area of Bahrain—where fires are still burning—the IRGC Navy carried out the fifth phase of reciprocal operations, launching missile and drone strikes against the FPS long-range early warning radar and a maritime surveillance radar in the Sultanate of Oman, destroying both systems.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic remains contingent upon the cessation of what was described as American military interference in the strait and respect for the sovereignty of states over their territorial waters. The continuation of such interference will lead to greater repercussions for the global oil and gas sectors—and indeed they have already led to greater repercussions.

Various videos have emerged of the aftermath of these Iranian strikes on the Arab Gulf dictatorships:

    Smoke rising from the US naval facility in Bahrain

    Video showing that all or at least a large part of Bahrain became engulfed in smoke as a result of these attacks

The Iranians have also published video of their missile and drone launches towards certain of these targets.
Strikes on US Facilities in Kuwait

It's by no means only Bahrain and Oman that have been struck. There was quite an interesting and important strike by the Iranian military on a US military base in Kuwait. That base and that country have been used by the Americans repeatedly during this criminal war of aggression to launch land-based missiles into Iran, oftentimes striking civilian infrastructure and/or killing civilians.

Finally, the Iranians decided they were going to target these missile systems—in particular the HIMARS missile system, which is the most important ground-based missile system that has been used against Iran in bases situated in the Gulf autotocracies.

Video of the aftermath reportedly shows that the strike not only destroyed the system but also HIMARS ammunition.
Strikes on US Facilities in Jordan

The Iranian military has also struck US military facilities within Jordan. An IRGC statement addressed to the honorable and Muslim people of Jordan is quite interesting for its commentary:

    "At dawn today during the third phase of the second wave of Operation Victory 2 under the slogan 'Vengeance for Hussein, peace be upon him,' the fighters of Islam targeted key facilities and an American military position at an air base occupied by the child-killing American military on your soil, which had been used to launch attacks against us using ballistic missiles. They inflicted upon the American criminals the punishment for their crimes. On the first day of the war, the arrogant American administration used these same bases to massacre 168 innocent school children and their teachers in Manab."

Then comes the most interesting part of the statement:

    "You know well that we are not hostile toward your country. On the contrary, we hold your noble people in the highest regard. More than any other nation, you understand the suffering and oppression of the Palestinian people, and you are fully aware of the crimes committed by the Zionist regime in killing 70,000 Palestinians, including 20,000 children in Gaza, with the direct involvement of the United States. Your determined demand for the removal of the occupying American bases from the region is a significant contribution to saving the Palestinian people and restoring security to the region."

The reference here is that a very substantial portion of the Jordanian population is in fact Palestinian. I've been to Jordan during the genocide, and I can tell you that there is tremendous sympathy amongst ordinary citizens there—not just the Palestinian population but amongst the whole of the population—for the Palestinian struggle. But this so-called "king" of Jordan brutally suppresses any meaningful support for the Palestinian resistance movement. As a result, the only thing standing in the way of the intervention of the people of Jordan in this criminal war of aggression—the kind of intervention that we have seen from South Lebanon, for example—is the brutal, corrupt puppet of Washington.

What I find most interesting about this statement and similar statements that the Iranian military and government have made in the past is the revolutionary tenor of these statements. They clearly are looking for regime change inside the Gulf Arab dictatorships and are doing what they can to promote it. They would like to see revolutionary forces unleashed—as would, frankly, much of humanity—in the broader region of West Asia, so that this cancer, this Washington cancer, can finally be excised from the region once and for all.

If that were to happen—if the US military forces would be successfully removed from the region—it would all be over for the genocidal pipsqueak Israel, which is nothing more than an extension of the US military, a giant US military base masquerading as a country and Washington's rabid attack dog in the region.

We shall see whether the kinds of unrest we have seen inside Bahrain—a majority of whose population is Shia—will begin to emerge in countries such as Jordan. That would be a wonderful development for the region if it resulted in the removal of US military forces and the founding of truly democratic governments across the broader region of West Asia.
Attacks on Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

There have been more attempts by complicit shipping to transit through the Strait of Hormuz without the cooperation of the Iranian military. As one would expect, that complicit shipping is paying a heavy price.

The UK Maritime Transportation Authority reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile 40 nautical miles northeast of Kalhat, Oman, with the projectile striking the vessel's starboard side engine room. The UAE Ministry of Defense said that two UAE tankers—Mombasa and Bakya—were targeted by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz in Omani territorial waters.

If these reports are accurate, it's very clear that Iran is going to assert control over the entirety of the strait with or without the cooperation of the Omani regime. The UAE Ministry of Defense said that fires broke out on both tankers and were later brought under control. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others were injured, including four seriously.

Iran is showing it can hit back where it hurts—maritime traffic, tankers, the Gulf's fragile sense of security.
The Strategic Logic of Iran's Position

When we ask the question "who controls the Strait of Hormuz and who will be able to control it in future," it's not necessary that Iran have an iron grip of control over the entirety of the strait in order to achieve its larger purposes of deterring attacks on the country. All it has to do is to generate—through missile and drone attacks, attacks by fast naval vessels, and perhaps through the laying of mines—enough risk to maritime transportation through the strait that shipping companies are deterred from sending their vessels through.

If they can create enough risk to deter maritime transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, then whether or not they have complete control over the strait, they will effectively achieve their objective of inflicting enough damage on the global economy to force the Americans to stop attacking their country. That is a relatively low bar for the Iranian military to have to meet given its military capabilities.

No matter what the US does, it will continue to create so much risk within the Strait of Hormuz that there will be—if not a complete cessation of maritime transportation through the strait—certainly a dramatic reduction. As long as there is a dramatic reduction, even if it isn't a total cessation of movement through the strait, then the situation in global oil markets will continue to worsen—and not just in global oil markets, but in the market for fertilizer, helium, sulfur, sulfuric acid, and other commodities extremely important to the global economy.

This is not a battle that the United States can win, no matter what Donald Trump says. And this is something which I think the global oil market is coming to understand, albeit belatedly.
Oil Price Surge

Over the last couple of days, there has been a dramatic increase in the price of oil. As of a couple of hours ago, the price of Brent crude had shot up another 4% today, trading at nearly $87. I saw a quick report just before I began this report indicating it had gone above $87.

It had gone down to the low 60s and has now shot up to the high 80s. Where it's going to go from here is anybody's guess, but given the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of these wars and the possible—imminent—closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, probably the price of oil is going to go a hell of a lot higher in the days and weeks ahead.
Trump's Statement on the Strait of Hormuz

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has proclaimed that the Gulf autocraties that use the Strait of Hormuz will have to pay huge protection money to his Washington-based mafia. On Truth Social, Trump wrote:

    "The Hormuz Strait is open"—this is nonsense; there's virtually no traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz—"and will remain open with or without Iran. We are reinstating the Iranian blockade."

There you have it. The one and only benefit that Iran had acquired from signing the JCPOA—which is to say a lifting of the blockade and a reestablishment of its ability to sell its oil—has been snatched away from it. There is now no benefit whatsoever to Iran complying with any aspect of the memorandum of understanding.

Trump went on:

    "The Iranian blockade is so named because it is only stopping Iran ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. Delusional—let me say that's outright delusional. The USA will be from this point forward known as the Guardian of the Hormuz Strait. But as such and as a matter of fairness will be reimbursed at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped for any all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter."

It is most ironic that as Marco Rubio, Trump's Secretary of State, is whining about the supposed illegality of the fees that Iran wants to charge to vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz, his own boss is proclaiming that the United States is going to charge an extortionate fee for providing protection for vessels transiting through the Strait.

As we've seen from these attacks that just occurred within the past 24 hours, the ally of the United States—the UAE—has said its vessels were attacked. So what protection is Donald Trump talking about? He is utterly incapable of providing any protection. But even if he were, 20% is an absolutely extortionate fee and one which, according to his own Secretary of State, would violate international law.
Trump's Media Comments

Trump offered additional commentary to the media to explain his position:

    "I want to be reimbursed because we're protecting a very rich portion of the world, we're spending money. So what we've done is we are going to be reimbursed for protection. We're protecting the countries that we're helping. For instance, you look at the five countries—you have Saudi Arabia, you have UAE, you have Qatar, you have Bahrain, and by the way you have others—you have Kuwait and you have others. And they will do very well. But we think it's appropriate that we don't need... You know, we have more oil than any other country in the world. When you add Venezuela, which has been amazing, which has tremendous amounts of oil that we control, when you add Venezuela and everything else, we have more than 50% of the world supply. We don't need it."

Again, this man is delusional. First of all, even assuming that the US has effective control over Venezuela's oil—and if it does, that really is a raging indictment of the current government of Venezuela, I must say—even if it has complete control over the oil of Venezuela, it does not have control over more than 50% of the world's oil supply. Unless you include all of the oil of West Asia, and if he thinks that they control all of that oil, maybe you can get to over 50%. But I think there may be a number of governments in the region who would dispute that the United States effectively controls its oil.

In any case, the control of that oil is not going to prevent a dramatic increase in the price of oil. If the global supply of oil is dramatically reduced, then there is going to be inevitably sharp increases in the price of oil, and that is going to have highly negative impacts not just on countries outside of the West but on the United States itself. We've already seen that in the form of inflation and increased prices at the gas pumps.
The Irony of Trump's Position

Before this criminal war of aggression began—before it was launched by the United States and Israel—no one, including Iran, was talking about charging any fees to any vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran decided to charge fees as a result of the war of aggression on its country, which virtually the entire West and the Gulf Arab dictatorships have supported.

It takes a special kind of chutzpah to provoke a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump did, and then demand payment from your so-called allies for resolving that crisis by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. What's even more absurd about this situation is, as I argued, that the US will not ultimately be able to take control of the strait. So Trump's bluster about a 20% fee will go nowhere.

However, what Trump's declaration has done is completely discredit the position taken by his Secretary of State that the imposition of a toll would be illegal, and it has also made the Iranian government look extremely reasonable by comparison.
Iran's Response

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi posted on X after Trump's statement:

    "The President of the United States is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for the service. Iran has always been the guardian of the strait and will remain so forever. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair."

The fee that the Iranian government has been talking about—which is in the range of $1 million per vessel—would amount to about 1 to 2% of the value of the cargo of these large tankers, as opposed to 20%. By comparison, the demand of Trump is truly extortionate. This new proclamation from the White House has simply discredited the United States government even further.
A Reminder About the Memorandum of Understanding

I must conclude this report with a reminder. Five days before the memorandum of understanding was signed a couple of weeks ago, I put out this statement on X:

    "There's no peace deal. There won't be a peace deal. Even if they sign something, it won't be worth toilet paper because Trump and Netanyahu will both sabotage it. We should stop fixating on this absurd circus and focus on what the child-murdering Israelis are doing to Palestine and Lebanon."

I'm not showing you this to toot my own horn. I don't regard it as having been prophetic or particularly insightful on my part—I think it was absolutely obvious that this was going to happen. A child familiar with the record of treachery and lying of the Trump and Netanyahu regimes could have foreseen that this MOU was going to be treated by the Trump regime like toilet paper.

And yet, a lot of wishful thinkers out there jumped on the "peace is at hand" bandwagon and proclaimed that the war was effectively over. No, it is not over. Not by a long shot, as we have all seen.

I would argue that it will not be over at least until Iran and its allies have inflicted so much pain on the United States and the West—particularly pain of an economic nature—that they will be finally deterred and permanently deterred from attacking the Iranian state and also the allies of Iran in the region. We're not anywhere close to that point yet. The United States economy has suffered some damage, but we are very far from the level of damage that would be necessary to incentivize a large proportion of the American population to demand relentlessly, vigorously, and in every way imaginable that the war be brought to an end.

I think we're months away from that point, unfortunately. I hope that I'm proven wrong about that. But I think we are going to see a lot more war in the days and weeks ahead and a hell of a lot more damage to the global economy.
Israeli Casualties in Lebanon

One other piece of news I want to share is a statement just put out by the genocidal Israeli military acknowledging that the number of wounded in its ranks since the start of its genocidal offensive in South Lebanon has risen to 1,461, including 89 in critical condition and 165 in moderate condition.

You should assume that these numbers represent only a portion of Israel's real losses. They continue to mount, which may explain why Israel has not at least publicly taken part in the most recent round of attacks on Iran. It is at least for the time being sitting out this round of hostilities and leaving it entirely to the US military to bear the burden of this war of aggression.
Conclusion

That'll do it for today. We will be back to you tomorrow morning—perhaps later today—with a report and interview of our good friend, the Palestinian legendary woman of resistance, Dr. Hanan Al-Zayyad, who is currently visiting Canada and has a harrowing story to recount of the suffering of a family whose members have been imprisoned by the genocidal Israeli military.

For the time being, please stay safe.

This report was originally presented as a video transcript for Reason to Resist and has been formatted for publication at the Doomstead Diner. All views expressed are those of the presenter.

 

 NOT a mystery.CNN Energy & Economics reporters are not the brightest bulbs in the box.

Note the difference in price between Gas and Diesel.  Gas demand is more elastic.  A lot of Happy Motoring is by choice.  Diesel, not so much.  Trucks gotta roll.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jul 21, 2026, 03:24 PMNote the difference in price between Gas and Diesel.  Gas demand is more elastic.  A lot of Happy Motoring is by choice.  Diesel, not so much.  Trucks gotta roll.[/color]

RE

From the Oval Office to his golden bed,
Donald Trump sits, tweeting and ranting, possessed,
His phone illuminates a demon's orange head.
America's greatness, a fading mess in distress.

Runnin' on empty, that's Trump's game,
Playing the fool and laughing while the world goes insane.
America's oil, it's running out fast,
America's legacy crumbles, it's built on dead past.

He started this war with no plan at all,
Now gas prices skyrocket, it's making us crawl and fall.
Our strategic reserve runs out Lickety-split,
Trump leaving our nation rickety quick, and stuck in a ditch.

"Make America Great Again," he once cried,
But now that phrase is crucified.
The world sees America as bullies and thieves,
Former allies ignore his lily silver tongued lies,
They carry the bluster of dropping leaves.

He promised to drain the swamp, but instead,
Made a new blue bottomed slimy green swamp in the reflecting pool.

Corruption and chaos are all that we see,
As Trump runs our nation into the sea.
Making us all want to flee.

Runnin' on empty, that's his style,
Leaving behind his trail of denial.
He'll never admit he was wrong,
Not even to 15 year-olds wearing a thong,
Not even when it's crystal clear he can't go on.

But don't worry, folks, Trump will be fine,
Jetting off to Mar-a-Lago tweeting his phone,
Leaving America to mend alone.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 12, 2026, 08:08 AMAlso: If we can't afford your hourly rate, we don't want it.[/color]

Somewhat of a tautology isn't it? It isn't "don't want it", if you can't afford my hourly rate by definition you can't have it.

Quote from: TDoS on Jul 22, 2026, 06:37 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 12, 2026, 08:08 AMAlso: If we can't afford your hourly rate, we don't want it.[/color]

Somewhat of a tautology isn't it? It isn't "don't want it", if you can't afford my hourly rate by definition you can't have it.

If you charge yourself some money, maybe you will come up with an answer.  But it does not matter anyway.  Since you won't identify who you are, we could never send you any money for your sage advice.  There's your tautology.

Quote from: K-DogSince you won't identify who you are, we could never send you any money for your sage advice.  There's your tautology.

I recently responded to a post about the infamous Dan Jarvie, in which you certainly seemed to believe such a person was lurking right here on this website!

Are you saying you didn't mean to imply this person was here?

As far as me not identifying myself, that is just common sense! This is the internet after all, and Haniel did personally warn me about RE during the great "revealing" exercise. When I met RE, I didn't find him all that objectionable in person....more just....quirky. Nothing wrong with quirky.

 

"Investors" live in the La-La land of the Ultra Rich.  Remember, the investors who drive market prices aren't J6P with his IRA.  They are the TBTF Banks, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds and Institutional Investors that control 90% of FSoA "wealth".  These folks are still living inside thhe AI Bubble, convinced like Dot Com & Tulip buyers of yore that this amazing toy will perform the age old miracle of Making Something from Nothing.  Ignore the P/E ratios, Ignore the Deficit, Ignore the people no longer listed as in the workforce, ignore the $25/lb Ribeye at the supermarket and follow Elon down the Yellow Brick Road and everybody will be rich beyond their wildest dreams!

TIME TO WAKE UP & SMELL THE COFFEE!
"In the short term, the elevated spike is more meaningful to the headlines than client portfolios," Tanney said. "If we have a sustained price above $120, that's the breaking point where you'll see serious trickle down effects."

No Michael, it doesn't take $120 Oil to have "trickle down" effects, we have been trickling here for months already, buffered somewhat by irrational exuberance and stockpiles of Oil just about emptied out.  What you will get at sustained $120 Oil is GUSHER DOWN EFFECTS and many, many unhappy Konsumers in Amerika and Starving Children across all of Africa and South America.

If we're extremely lucky, nobody will blow off a "Nuclear Device" before the ball drops in 2027.  Past that we're living on borrowed time.

RE

QuoteHaniel did personally warn me about RE during the great "revealing" exercise. When I met RE, I didn't find him all that objectionable in person....more just....quirky. Nothing wrong with quirky.

Seems TDos does not think 'Haniel did personally warn me about RE' is not insulting another Diner which this troll knows is against the code of conduct.

Five days on top of the five days I just gave him in another thread.

*  If you refer to the other thread and wonder if my insults directed to TDos are a violation of the code of conduct you can stop wondering.  They are not.  When TDos is banned he is not a Diner.

Lately I haven't even found TDoS posts even worth a comment or deletion.  Just being snide.  He doesn't comment at all on the Iran war which is my major focus of Global Collapse dynamics these days.  He just recycles Peak Oil pet peeves, which are old newz.  Nothing there.

RE

The interconnection between all the Oil Resource Wars has really become apparent with the latest expansion to include the Red Sea, Black Sea and Caspian Sea.  Iran is the only OPEC country with substantial reserves aligned with Russia.  The global war being fought here is designed to take as much of this oil production as possible off line, thus raising the price and allow oil flowing out of the FSoA and other West aligned nations reap Windfall profits as long as they can still refine it and bring it to market.

The main questions revolve around how long Russia can go with their revenue stream so reduced and how long the Chinese can last on their reserves and using alternative energy resources.  At some point both countries will need to more directly interfere with the oil production out of other nations to retaliate.  I can see oil pproduction facilities in Africa and South America becoming targets fairly soon.

Further into the future, the question is how long before Hot War crosses the pond to the New World?  Production facilities in the GoM would be most likely, Oil Platforms out there are Sitting Ducks.  Most of the Drones don't have the range for attacks from Iran or Russia, but it shouldn't be long before long range drones capable of making the crossing become available.  Also possible that Brasil or Colombia could get drawn into the wars as staging ground.

Finally, when, where and who will it be that becomes desperate enough to use a Fusion Nuke to really do some damage to production?  One massive H-Bomb air burst blast over the GoM could take out a dozen oil rigs without killing too many people or leaving to much area uninhabitable. Not out of the question strategically speaking.



RE

 

Crude stockpiles also running low.  Should get interesting when they bottom out.  Timing could put it right in front of the election.  Cross your fingers.

RE

 

All Iran has to do is let time do it's work.  Trump does not care about Americans, and Iran knows that fact all by itself will destroy the U.S. over time.  America rots from within, wait long enough, endure the stench, and America will be gone.  The fool will destroy it.  And America is too weak to stop him.

As evidenced by :



Did they run out of Friday night Prime Rib?  Will this story reach Fox News?

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 12, 2026, 09:46 PMDid they run out of Friday night Prime Rib?  Will this story reach Fox News?

Sure to be denied as Fake Newz.

RE

 

Still nothing from MSM sources, but obviously not Fake Newz.

With 7 Grunts Dead, this will be a major story.  Doubtful it can be contained long.

RE

 

Well, it's made it to the MSM branded as a "mental health crisis".  Nothing about Mutiny, Riot or Dead Grunts so far.

RE

 
Caligula / Mar-a-Lago
 

Rhyming Times these are.  Not talking about making war on the sea, which taking possession of the straight of Hormuz is.  The mad king parallel rhymes like a wine glass shattered by a singers voice.

The actual beach where Caligula commanded his legions to attack the surf was the coast of northern France facing Britain.  When reality resists a mad emperor's grand plans, even the sea will become the stage for rage.  He howls at the tide, but his screams are drowned by the noise of thundering surf.

QuoteThe Senate whispered in hushed tones, while the people spoke openly of their emperor's divine victory.