Doomstead

Spring fertilizer application in the Northern Hemisphere runs through June. Parts of Africa are entering the primary planting season now — a critical window for the continent's most food-insecure populations. A missed window doesn't delay a harvest — it eliminates it. The shortfall will be invisible until it materializes in spiking prices and empty shelves next fall.  This is the story the Hormuz blockade coverage is missing. The crisis isn't just raising energy prices — it is breaking food supply chains. The world is facing a slow-motion catastrophe that will not announce itself until it is too late.

The world doesn't need this by June.  It needed it a month ago.  Even if they set up a corridor tomorrow, by the time any significant amount gets shipped, the window for fertilizer application will be closed.  5 out of 6 of India's production facilities are shut due to lack of inputs (LNG).  They have to both start getting the LNG AND get the production ramped back up AND ship the fertilizer to the farmers. Not gonna happen.

So, the skyrocketing prices and "food insecurity" are gonna happen.  FI is a euphemism for STARVATION.  A LOT of people are gonna starve as a result of Trumpolini's War, the only question is how big the number will be.  Will we ever get an accurate estimate of the number that starve to DEATH?  No, of course not, but you can be pretty certain it will be in the MILLIONS.  Trumpolini and Amerika may very well match or exceed Stalin in exterminating useless eaters.

RE

And the average cost of gas in Seattle is $5.795 a gallon now.  With California Washington has the highest in the country.  I need to snap a photo of the closest station to me.  It is a Shell station.  Diesel was over $7 and all the gas was over $6.  Quite the the sight to see with the numbers brightly lit up in the early morning light.  Mesmerizing, as in holy fuck!

Meanwhile Trump and Co. manipulate the stock market.  Considering which oligarchs are now most corrupt; if I could get Russian gas I would.

USA National Gas Station Price Heat Map (https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=40.460131211150724&lng=-96.591588&z=4)

Quote from: K-Dog on May 03, 2026, 03:01 PM

THEMOSCOWTIMES.COM 2026-05-02

Japan Buys Russian Oil for the First Time Since Hormuz Closure

Japan is set to receive its first shipment of Russian crude oil since the conflict in the Middle East disrupted global energy supplies.

And the average cost of gas in Seattle is $5.795 a gallon now.

SHIT! We've only hit about $4.50 lately. Normally wouldn't notice when quietly zooming by gas stations, but the wife required me to take her out for a fountain drink and I noticed the price the suckers....excuse me...the ICE powered people who are forced to suffer from not being worldly wise to the limited nature of crude oil and products produced from them.

GO EV!!!

Avoiding such an outcome will require alternative trade routes, restraint on export restrictions, protection of humanitarian flows, and buffers to absorb higher transport costs, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned.

6 months puts us right around the Nov elections.  Skyrocketing food prices should Doom Trumpolini, even if we manage to avoid food riots here in thee FSoA.  The rest of the 3rd Worlld will probably have a Global "Arab Autumn".

RE

There is little doubt at this point that the various wars and climate related agricultural impacts of the 2026 growing season are going to have a huge impact on the amount of food that makes it to market in 2027.  Nor that the impact will basically be that Food Prices will rise globally, as nearly all growing regions and staples have been adversely affected.

Thhere also is little doubt that the worst effects of this global problem for Homo Saps will be concentrated mainly on the poorest countries of the world, where the populations already have to spend 50-75% of their monthly budget on food.  Inevitably here, a lot more people than usual are going to starve next year.  How many more we don't yet know and  here in the FSoA probably never will, particularly about the repercussions here among Amerikans.

The question is, regardless of what the absolute numbers are, if most of the dead people and food riots are happening elsewhere, does that count as Collapse?  If most Amerikans are still Happy Motoring and the Costco shelves are still stocked (albeit at higher prices), we have nothing to worry about?  After all, people have always been starving in those poor countries, right?

Is it only Collapse when it happens in your neighborhood?  At what point in how many other neighborhoods does it have to affect before it counts?  Does it  only count if White people are starving?

What about Food Aid to starving countries?  If prices are rising here and people start having to choose between buying Food or paying for their Netflix subscription, how will they feel about sending Free Food to starving people in Kenya?  Will there be free food distribution here for people who can't afford to buy food and pay the rent too?  Will the SNAP Card system get more funding?

Before Rome itself fell, they lost Britain and Gaul  in revolts and Barbarian invasions. it took a century for the mayhem to engulf the city itself.  I don't think you need to wait until 476 to say Rome was collapsing though.  It was already falling apart in 386, and then after 476 the Empire in the east still survived run from Constantinople.  Many aspects still survived in the Holy Roman Catholic Church to this day in terms of economic ownership of properties and contracts.  In that sense, it never collapsed.

So, depending on your POV, it's pretty much possible to view a collapse with your own definition.  Personally, I'm satisfied  that we are somewhere between 386 and 476 in the comparative timeline.

RE

Well, we can already cross off Hormuz returning to pre-war levels of shipping in 2026, which drops us in on the left side of the Matrix.

(https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Fast-Foresight-El-Nino-Hormuz-scenarios-2-1-1024x951.png.webp)

Whether the outcome is in the top or bottom left side quadrant will depend on how large an effect the Super El Nino has on global food production, and that still remains to be seen.  However, neither scenario is good, it's just a question of how widespread the effects are.

Chances are the FSoA will be spared the worst of the direct effects, but the knock on effects will cause problems of their own.  There will be increased migration pressure out of countries that suffer food shortages.  If those countries are in Central or South America, migrants will start heading north.  On the humanitarian level, it will be harder to keep the border with Mexico as tightly restricted as it currently is.  Also difficult to send food aid south if the prices here continue to rise.

2027 will only be the beginning, since there will still be some remaining surplus from 2026, but this will be gone by midsummer.  So the real problems won't hit until late 2027 into 2028.  They should be planning logistics now and how the international response should be coordinated, but somehow I doubt this is happening.

Another slow-motion train wreck.

(https://media.tenor.com/OdlafhLW1xcAAAAM/train-bridge.gif)

RE

It makes you wonder.  Will Billy Boomer find a park to park his 401K.  Or will he be forced to make other arrangements?

Who's hiring.  Anybody know?