Doomstead

A crash will happen.  Is this tremor a prelude to an earthquake?





Are billionaires approaching peak prosperity?

As things progress, honesty about America's financial condition will be hard to find.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 04, 2026, 03:11 PMAs things progress, honesty about America's financial condition will be hard to find.[/color]

Well, for as many decades, centuries and millennium Apocalyptians have been around, I can only venture....what took so long to get to the point of....MAYBE this time?
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Psst....are there that many of us left to even notice? 🧐

Blackstone's private credit fund is capping investor withdrawals at half the demand

This is essentially the same as Banks closing their doors and not allowing withdrawals at the beginning of the Great Depression.  They are experiencing a Bank Run and are trying to slow it down.  Probleem is, that action actually created more panic.

(https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/02/LSE_2022_banking-panic_luck_460.jpg)

Hedge Funds like Blackstone are the Banks of the rich class today, and they are beginning to PANIC.  Blackstone is one of the biggest, which will influence the investors in smaller funds.  If a full blown run on the private credit market gets underway, it inevitably will cause a financial crisis, particularly since the Bond Market is so unstable right now.  There's no safe haven for people trying to liquidate their investments.

Remember, as I said in a prior post, the only thing backing the Dollar is the "Full Faith & Credit of the FSoA".  A run on HFs is a critical sign that the rich have lost faith in the credit worthiness of the FSoA.  It's remarkable to me that it has taken this long, mainly because the monopoly on money creation is so comprehensive there's no alternative in the trade clearing biz besides the relatively new BRICS system.  Utilizing it would require exchanging Dollars for a BRICS currency, mainly Renminby.  That happening at any scale would be WWIII.

RE

Considering rising crude oil prices, inflation risks, excessive stock valuations, and expectations for future interest-rate policy. The most likely outcome for next week is a modest market pullback.  Decline or pause after recent gains in the last couple of months.  A rally is less probable and would depend on new optimistic Trump manure appearing in the mainstream press.


Not to be doom an gloom, the odds of a lackluster rally is not one in seven thousand.  It is only one in five. 

(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6047d405b02148755fb6e601/fb3b8efc-f5db-4276-97ce-316f05f789c3/image_2025-03-17_213358799.png?format=2500w) 

Being that the probability of Trump bullshit is so high, the rally still has a 20% probability.




The Oracle of Delphi has issued her forecast for next week.

Fools and their money will soon be parted.

Building your pre-crash emergency fund is getting harder by the day.

His rocket company is targeting a valuation of $1.77 trillion, which would make it one of the 10 biggest companies in the world—bigger than Meta, Walmart, and, for that matter, Tesla.

As if there aren't enough things out there insuring the coming implosion of global finance will be earth  shattering, Elon Musk is contributing his gigantic SpaceX turd into the mix, and Chump intends to use taxpayer money to buy an equity stake in this shitpile.  The kiss of death.

RE

A company that is losing money is not worth $1.77 trillion.  Correct me if I am wrong.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 07, 2026, 09:22 PMA company that is losing money is not worth $1.77 trillion.  Correct me if I am wrong.

If you BELIEVE Elon, you're wrong.  He writes a Biz Plan that PROJECTS future revenues that will pay investors a fat dividend every year if they give him their money to make the capital expenditure necessary to put his data centers up in space where they will get free solar energy to run.  This is the magic of using Other People's Money to get filthy rich.  Elon is a Master Salesman, and is able to convince the Smartest People in the Room he can do this.

Most biznesses have to produce something tangible and need lots of people to run.  The AI biz needs neither.  Once he has the hardware up in space, it needs no people to run.  Nothing tangible has to be shipped, it just processes data.  He can run the biz out of one office building anywhere in the world.  Virtually all of the money paid each day to process data on his machines in orbit is pure profit.

In REALITY, will people pay enough money every year to make those profits?  I highly doubr it.  He doesn't need to convince me though, he just needs to convince the bank that underwrites the IPO.  Then the brokers convince their clients to buy the stock.  POOF, Elon is a trillionaire!  No hard work necessary, no unique brilliant invention, just salesmanship.  It's his gift.

The truth is this is likely the final blowoff phase before the big bust.  At least it guaratees the crash will be spectacular.

RE

Where is the cooling water in space?  How will the chips be cooled in space.

I realize this is a stupid question as Spaxe-X will reduce the cost of sending hardware into space to zero.