Doomstead

The 1st broadcast of the Collapse Cafe, a solo effort since this website is loaded with a bunch of panty waists. :P

Enjoy.  Only 20 minutes.


RE

18 views and 3 comments already on my New Year's video!   8)   I'm still a Superstar of Collapse!

RE

Interesting that the folks of yore who would talk on these things are making excuses. "I know there is going to be a major crash." Good thing you then predicated it with 20 years this time, you appeared pretty pessimistic just a couple days ago thinking 2024 might be the year. Why the sudden shift in just a few days? Rampant optimism! Or just learning from past missteps in the prediction game?

You can't blame others for not wanting to stick their necks out. Again. It is likely that the kind of reaction they received when folks found out they were end of worlders last time was less than positive. Maybe they have decided to feel a little optimism, when peak oil 2005 was a bust, the unexpected speed of recovery from 2008 Great Recession, Yellowstone didn't explode, the Mayan calendar thing was a dud and Planet X was bubcuss, Hoover dam lacking water suddenly became Hoover dam with water, peak oil 2018 happened and no one noticed, most folks survived Covid, and then the Fed looks to have achieved a semi-soft landing for the economy? I mean, Holy Cow, other than a war in Europe right now and the whole of South America wanting in on the American economy, wages and whatnot, doomy winds appear to be meager.

Maybe China could be configured...again...into becoming toast...since it didn't last time...and that could be something to build a good doom scenario around? They've got problems with the US trying to unravel globalization and the US signing that legislation to make it an EV powerhouse to compete with them, rather than try and bring them into the global fold?

Yes, the apparent lack of detrimental impact of post peak crude oil production is confusing. It may be partly due to all liquids (including NGL) production continuing to increase and partly due to the fact that economic activity is still below 2019, due to COVID lockdowns in 2020 and later. The lack of crude oil growth may start to be noticeable this year.

It might be nice to blame someone, or somefew, for our polycrisis but it really is no-one's fault. Homo sapiens is acting like a species, and so should be expected. The ability to access fossil fuels has accelerated the environmental destruction and perhaps made it unrecoverable. Modernity could never have been made sustainable because it has to consume non-renewable resources and end up consuming renewable resources beyond their renewal rates. And so it was inevitable that environmental damage would eventually reach a level that couldn't be assimilated by nature. Far all of these reasons, modernity, with 8 billion people and a decimated wildlife population, couldn't and can't be made sustainable.

Be thankful that the great acceleration has given those alive today the possible opportunity to witness the early stages of collapse.

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jan 01, 2024, 08:09 PMIt might be nice to blame someone, or somefew, for our polycrisis but it really is no-one's fault. Homo sapiens is acting like a species, and so should be expected. The ability to access fossil fuels has accelerated the environmental destruction and perhaps made it unrecoverable.

Nature will recover fine and something akin to buffalo will once again plod the prairie at a future time.  Nature recovers, humans will not. 

In time another arrogant biped may evolve and arrogantly claim they are god's shadow like we did.

In the meantime.

Prepping stuff like that.  Activities that are perhaps a wank.  But whatever, prepping is certainly an indifferent activity that harms others no more or less than what most humans do most of the time.  A moral neutral.  Some people are into wood turning.  Another moral equivalent.

Does the Diner have any purpose?

I say it does.

Remember when the bullshit (advice spawned by a bullshitter) was to put all your eggs in a floating basket.

Water-world.  Avoid collapse by taking to the seven seas in a boat that can't call on a friendly port for food and supplies, and which if it did, would have no money to spend.  Because collapse means among other things, no fucking money or law on the high seas.

Take to a boat with no more than a couple months food and no way to get more of it except what you catch.

Escaping collapse in a sail boat is a not so poor man's logical equivalent of moving to Mars to escape collapse.  You get air with a boat, but pirates stealing your food and raping the women after they kill you, hardly makes having air to breath on the boat an improvement.

The Diner knows we have been fools, and we have learned.  We have seen the collapse charlatans, and we know more of them are coming to take advantage of the fears of newbie doomers.  As they have done before.

To counter the charlatans we have a modicum of wisdom to share.  And sometimes calling bullshit is fun.

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jan 01, 2024, 08:09 PMIt might be nice to blame someone, or somefew, for our polycrisis but it really is no-one's fault.

Blaming everyone is blaming no one.

We have a society where a few people have the power to make decisions which all people are stuck with.  If the Captain of the Titanic reads the weather charts wrong or hits the wrong lever on the boat and sends it careening into an iceberg, it's the Captains fault when the boat sinks.  It's not the fault of the passengers because they bought a ticket on that boat.  It's not even the fault of engineer who was running the engine.  That so many died IS the fault of the designer of the boat, who didn't equip it with enough lifeboats for everyone.

You can assign blame for the way our society was engineered, because those decisions were made by a very few people who had the power and stood the most to gain by engineering the build out the way they did.  The consequences were known, just as the consequences of smoking were known by the tobacco industry when they designed ad campaigns to get as many people addicted to smoking as they did.  Fault was assigned and damages assessed.  Not that money can buy back anybody's life of course.

No amount of damages can pay for what has been done to the environment, and most of the main people who put us on this path are dead anyhow.  Nevertheless, there are still people at the top profiting from perpetuating the model and lying about the consequences.  They most certainly can be held accountable for this and judgements can be rendered against them and damages assessed.

Not easy to do of course, because the very same people own the courts and the political system  That unfortunate reality doesn't make them any less guilty though.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 02, 2024, 12:46 AMRemember when the bullshit (advice spawned by a bullshitter) was to put all your eggs in a floating basket.

I believe you are referring to the "Sea Gypsy", Ray Jason who I interviwed a couple of times and is still out there blogging about a dystopian future world of obscenely rich rulers and a slave class fed on bug protein, with his solution of free people living on sailboats, as he has done for the last 30 years or so.

http://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/

We referred to this whole idea as "Seasteading" which actually has captured the imagination of many people of the Libertarian ilk who long for a place free of Goobermint, which they want to set up in International Waters.  You can read all about that here:

https://free-cities.org/seasteading-the-movement-history-and-perspectives/

(https://free-cities.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/01_BIG_SFC_OceanixCity_Aerial_Image-by-BIG-Bjarke-Ingels-Group-1-scaled.jpg)

Both are nice but wholly unrealistic fantasies, although like with owning an RV as insurance against homelessness, if you can afford one a sailboat big enough to live on and capable of blue water voyaging is a nice insurance policy for leaving a failing country and going somewhere else that isn't quite so bad.  However, when you get anywhere, you're still going to need a passport and visa and jump through immigration hoops if you want to make it permanent.

You also need some sort of income, in most cases yachties who live this way are wealthy enough to have passive income or are retirees collecting pensions and social security.  Ray financed his sailing writing for the sailing magazines and when he was younger street performing as a juggler.  Actually living this way without a steady income of some type is close to impossible.  There are fees at every marina and customs fees to be paid, and these boats take a lot of maintenance to keep going.

Once collapse progresses far enough, finding places to stop and provision up where you won't be robbed or killed for your boat will become increasingly difficult, and out at sea you're very vulnerable to small pirates with offshore speedboats like the drug runners use.  So as a long term solution it's not very realistic.

For right now though, you could sail pretty safely from Alaska to Hawaii to New Zealand for provisioning, and find nice quiet coves and lagoons in the society islands away from people and pretend you're  Robinson Crusoe for a while.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 01, 2024, 02:06 PMThe 1st broadcast of the Collapse Cafe, a solo effort since this website is loaded with a bunch of panty waists. :P

Enjoy.  Only 20 minutes.

RE

I have never really cared about discussing  collapse as such, as a topic. Really more interested in  hearing about how others are adjusting and making their lives more durable and the lessons learned. People must learn that their own personal collapse (age related, health related, monetary related ) in what ever form that takes is what they need to plan for and by default this will leave them in a better position for any other occurring event.

I was actually thinking of he who will not be named.  He who's family trips to a collapsing Soviet Union turned him into an 'expert' on collapse.  In the same way, if I jerk off enough can I get the experience to be a sex therapist?  I was actually thinking of he who expects all whom he meets to contribute lavishly to his greatness, prostrate themselves as unworthy supplicants on the ground, and kiss his feet.

The guy who thankfully has a hockey player with the  same so he is not thrust in your face the way he used to be every time you did a search for collapse.

QuoteI am NOT trying to convince large numbers of people to abandon their lives ashore and adopt the full-time cruising lifestyle. Instead, my goal is to inspire those who are already living aboard their sailboats. My hope is that I can encourage them to band together with other like-minded sailors who believe that society-wrecking catastrophes might lie just below tomorrow's horizon. <-- Ray

Ray is an 'exceptional' man who from an economic point of view has only had to worry about himself.  Ray has been able to earn when he need pay for boat supplies or he has had other means.  Ray has been able to quit and walk away when he wants to.

'Ordinary' men like myself, live lives where others depend on them.  Their obligations and understandings of life are different than from my point of view.

I do not find Ray to be a fountain of wisdom.  I consider him to be an average libertarian conservative.  But Ray does not like OTHER conservative types of the same ilk, claim to be more than he actually is. I have not read many of his essays, if I read more of them I might have objections to some of his 'philosophy', but I give Ray the benefit of the doubt. 

The Sea Gypsy. (https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/)

I never had a problem with the sea gypsy. If I were him, surviving on the seas in a collapsing world would make sense.  A lifetime of experience and knowing where to go makes a bit of difference.

At sea one needs a destination.  Always.  In collapse there will be no destination.  Everywhere you go there will be hunger.  Hunger which you as a sea-gypsy will ignore after you lament about the horrors sufficiently.

Then you sail away.  Magic cans of spinach appear to satiate your hunger.  This does not impress me.

Quote from: 18hammers on Jan 02, 2024, 09:56 AM

Quote from: RE on Jan 01, 2024, 02:06 PMThe 1st broadcast of the Collapse Cafe, a solo effort since this website is loaded with a bunch of panty waists. :P

Enjoy.  Only 20 minutes.

RE

I have never really cared about discussing  collapse as such, as a topic. Really more interested in  hearing about how others are adjusting and making their lives more durable and the lessons learned. People must learn that their own personal collapse (age related, health related, monetary related ) in what ever form that takes is what they need to plan for and by default this will leave them in a better position for any other occurring event.

QuotePeople must learn that their own personal collapse (age related, health related, monetary related ) in what ever form that takes is what they need to plan for and by default this will leave them in a better position for any other occurring event.

Exactly Right!

Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 02, 2024, 10:01 AMRay is an 'exceptional' man who from an economic point of view has only had to worry about himself.  Ray has been able to earn when he need pay for boat supplies or he has had other means.  Ray has been able to quit and walk away when he wants to.

All true, and single men do compose the majority of people who pursue the Yachty lifestyle.  However, there are quite a few couples who do it, both same sex and opposite.  I met several lezzie couples during my brief vacation yachting in the Greek islands one summer in the 80s.  I also met 1 family with 3 girls, age 6, 9 and 11, but they also were only doing it for the summer.  Periodically if you read Cruising World (the magazine for Yachties), they feature a family who does it as lifestyle, homeschooling the kids aboard while circling the globe.  Those deals usually take a couple of years while they do a circumnavigation.

Over the last 50 years or so, it's been possible to do this in reasonable safety, although a few Yachties have been kidnapped and held for ransom over the years.  Usually these folks did their cruising in dicey areas in SE Asia or around the coast of Africa.  The Mediterranean, Bahamas and Pacific Islands for the most part pretty safe.

Yachty families really into it let their kids go off on their own quite young to adventure this way.  Laura Dekker started her solo circumnavigation at age 14 and finished it at age 16.  That's remarkable independence and says a lot about the lifestyle for raising kids.

RE

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jan 01, 2024, 07:46 PMYes, the apparent lack of detrimental impact of post peak crude oil production is confusing. It may be partly due to all liquids (including NGL) production continuing to increase and partly due to the fact that economic activity is still below 2019, due to COVID lockdowns in 2020 and later. The lack of crude oil growth may start to be noticeable this year.

Could be, but liquids aren't crude. Butane and propane and ethane just aren't something you jam into your internal combustion engine in any real volumes. If we were building a bunch of propane and butane powered cars it might be something to think about, but so far humans have leaned more towards EVs.

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jan 01, 2024, 08:09 PMFar all of these reasons, modernity, with 8 billion people and a decimated wildlife population, couldn't and can't be made sustainable.

Yup. Turns out being a biped lizard with big claws and teeth works for millions of years as an apex predator, and silly little biped monkeys thinking sentience was a big deal turn out to be no smarter than a family of cockroaches trapped in a bucket with 5# of sugar...happily enjoying themselves until....

Quote from: TonyPrepBe thankful that the great acceleration has given those alive today the possible opportunity to witness the early stages of collapse.

Thankful! Yes! That is better than optimistic...be THANKFUL that we didn't die back in the 80's when we were supposed to, or during the peak oils of the late 20th or early 21st century, or during the Chinese economy collapse a decade ago, or ongoing climate continuing to change, or the Cold War, or the Mayan Calendar or Yellowstone exploding...we should be grateful. That we made it through like everyone else, and are far closer to dying in our sleep than becoming MZB fodder.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 02, 2024, 10:01 AMThe Sea Gypsy. (https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/)

So...the blog doesn't exist anymore? I thought you were talking about Orlov most of the time during the post.

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 02, 2024, 05:41 PM

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jan 01, 2024, 07:46 PMYes, the apparent lack of detrimental impact of post peak crude oil production is confusing. It may be partly due to all liquids (including NGL) production continuing to increase and partly due to the fact that economic activity is still below 2019, due to COVID lockdowns in 2020 and later. The lack of crude oil growth may start to be noticeable this year.

Could be, but liquids aren't crude. Butane and propane and ethane just aren't something you jam into your internal combustion engine in any real volumes. If we were building a bunch of propane and butane powered cars it might be something to think about, but so far humans have leaned more towards EVs.

You can run a standard ICE engine on NG or Wood Gas, NF here does that.  You just need a tank to hold the gas and a carburetor to mix it with air before feeding it into the cylinder.  You could do the same with propane.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 02, 2024, 06:37 PMYou can run a standard ICE engine on NG or Wood Gas, NF here does that.  You just need a tank to hold the gas and a carburetor to mix it with air before feeding it into the cylinder.  You could do the same with propane.
RE

Of course. But it isn't done in any volume because ethane, propane and butane get used for a bunch of other useful things, in part because there is so much of the crude oil around to do most of the real work.

I mean really, get some water and electricity, catch the hydrogen as it forms, put it in a tank and get DONE with all the silly carbon molecules polluting up the world regardless of whether or not they are crude oil or "liquids". But we don't do that either to any degree.

There is the technically possible...and then all the stupid stuff we bipeds do instead because it's easy.

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 02, 2024, 06:03 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 02, 2024, 10:01 AMThe Sea Gypsy. (https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/)

So...the blog doesn't exist anymore? I thought you were talking about Orlov most of the time during the post.

You are right.  I was.  RE brought the Sea Gypsy into it.  His blog still exists.  The Sea Gypsy (https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/https://theseagypsyphilosopher.blogspot.com/)

I was curious about Orlov.  Did some searching.  He has hard core fans who send him money.  Some kind of cult thing going on,  and he is living somewhere outside Saint Petersburg, and rootin for Putin.

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 02, 2024, 07:38 PMI mean really, get some water and electricity, catch the hydrogen as it forms, put it in a tank and get DONE with all the silly carbon molecules polluting up the world regardless of whether or not they are crude oil or "liquids". But we don't do that either to any degree.

You need a source of carbon free electricity generation to do commercial hydrolysis.  It is being done now at some nuke plants and wind farms to produce hydrogen for fuel cells.  There are multiple problems with commercializing the process.  First off, conversion of electricty to chemical energy stored in molecular hydrogen is an energy intensive process, so there is significant loss.  Second it takes still more energy to liquify the hydrogen for transport.  3rd, there is no infrastructure  built to support fuel cells and distribute the liquid hydrogen.

As new alternative solutions to fossil fuels are concerned, the Flow Batteries we discussed last week are superior to hydrogen as energy storage tech, IMHO.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 02, 2024, 10:04 PMI was curious about Orlov.  Did some searching.  He has hard core fans who send him money.  Some kind of cult thing going on,  and he is living somewhere outside Saint Petersburg, and rootin for Putin.

I always joked about Dmitry going back to Mother Russia and shilling for Vlad.  So he finally actually did it for real?  I wonder if he sailed his boat there from FL?  Think he gave up his FSoA passport?

RE

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 02, 2024, 11:45 PMThere are multiple problems with commercializing the process.  First off, conversion of electricty to chemical energy stored in molecular hydrogen is an energy intensive process, so there is significant loss.

The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics isn't a "problem", it is just one of those laws of the universe type things. And people don't give a rats behind at the energy loss turning a plentiful liquid fuel like crude oil first into gasoline (loss and loss) and then BURNING it (more loss and more loss), so while engineers and pedants might care about these kinds of losses, Joe Sixpack does not.

Joe Sixpack cares about cost. Doesn't give a crap about 2nd Law nonsense from the eggheads, he cares about whether he can afford to pour diesel into his truck to still have some cash left over for bar hopping Saturday night while ICEing some dweeb in their Prius along the way. The losses could become even more horrifying (BIGGER MONSTER TRUCK FOR JOE!) and if the fuel cost doesn't slow him down (slacken demand)....nobody else cares either! Enjoy the bigger monster truck Joe! Economics in motion.

Quote from: REAs new alternative solutions to fossil fuels are concerned, the Flow Batteries we discussed last week are superior to hydrogen as energy storage tech, IMHO.
RE

Excellent! And where might I buy enough to...say...power my home? I mean, if they are indeed superior and not just in a efficiency only contest, then part of that superiority must translate to lower costs than the alternative, and they must be whupping it up all over the alternatives.

Do you have a website where these can be purchased on a cost-competitive basis? Or are flow batterys in the land of "always better [fill in the reason why] but can't be found because efficiency isn't the only part of commercial/economic sales volumes"?

Theory is great. Commercial viability will tend to kick its backside every day of the week and twice on Sunday unless you are building solar probes that can afford ridiculous efficiencies to make their systems run in outer space for the next couple decades. No one needs that level of "better" to power their EV.

Why are you getting your knickers in such a twist?  You made the argument why hydrogen isn't being used.  It's not as profitable as sticking with crude, as long as it holds out.  Personally, I could care less which technology replaces ffs as long as it meets the goals of reducing carbon emissions, not creating a sewer of environmental damage, is sufficiently energy dense to handle the  applications, is affordable for the end consumer and there's enough supply that can be brought online to keep the various systems we have that are energy dependent running.

Can any of the possible alternatives out there meet all these goals right now?  No, all of them have some weakness, including the fact energy companies have already invested a lot of capital in one or another of them and have a vested interest in seeing the one they picked most widely accepted and distributed.  The same folks also have a lot of debt they have to service, so they need to see a return on these investments relatively quickly.

If hydrogen appeals to you, feel free to root for further development in that sector.  I have no problem with that.  I doubt however that it will play an important role, just as I doubt Fusion power will solve the energy production problem.  Both technologies have been talked about for decades, I've been reading about clean fusion and hydrogen fuel cells in Popular Mechanics since childhood.  Given the length of time it's been worked on, you would think they would be further along with it, but they're not.  Don't blame me for that, I'm just the messenger.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 03, 2024, 02:02 PMWhy are you getting your knickers in such a twist?  You made the argument why hydrogen isn't being used.

No knickers involved. And I used hydrogen as an example, sure.

Quote from: REIt's not as profitable as sticking with crude, as long as it holds out.  Personally, I could care less which technology replaces ffs as long as it meets the goals of reducing carbon emissions, not creating a sewer of environmental damage, is sufficiently energy dense to handle the  applications, is affordable for the end consumer and there's enough supply that can be brought online to keep the various systems we have that are energy dependent running.

"goals of reducing carbon emissions" is an interesting phrase. Do you believe that there are goals, i.e. plans to do something about carbon emissions that aren't hopium? It would seem reasonable to require that anyone setting such goals would require the action to be effective, and work at the appropriate scale. Within the constraints of the goals anyway.

Do you believe there is any effective action operating at scale based on all the plans that, say, the COP folks have been discussing over the years?

Quote from: RECan any of the possible alternatives out there meet all these goals right now?  No, all of them have some weakness, including the fact energy companies have already invested a lot of capital in one or another of them and have a vested interest in seeing the one they picked most widely accepted and distributed.  The same folks also have a lot of debt they have to service, so they need to see a return on these investments relatively quickly.

So...if this were an answer to my prior question, would this be a yes...a no...or a maybe?

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 03, 2024, 06:03 PMDo you believe that there are goals, i.e. plans to do something about carbon emissions that aren't hopium?

It's definitely a goal, it's what lecture halls full of scientists tell us is necessary if we are to prevent catastrophic climate change after COP conferences.  Greta Thunberg says it too, so it must be true. lol.   Whether this is an achievable goal is an open question.  It seems unlikely to succeed in the time frame they set out, but doing something is better than doing nothing.

QuoteDo you believe there is any effective action operating at scale based on all the plans that, say, the COP folks have been discussing over the years?

Generally they don't specify actions, just set goal dates by which time we're supposed to stop burning fossil fuels.  At the rate that is happening, those dates won't be met.  I don't think there is any way to achieve those dates and maintain the per capita energy expenditure we currently use.  However, the more alternative energy sources we develop, the better off we'll be.

QuoteSo...if this were an answer to my prior question, would this be a yes...a no...or a maybe?

What question? Can you buy alternatives on a cost competitive basis?  Obviously not, if you could there wouldn't be a problem.  All alternatives are still in development at one stage or another.  There's no real consensus on what is best to pursue, and different people and corporations jockey for investment capital.

Now, assuming we avoid having a catastrophic war and we don't have a global famine or plague in the next 50 years, it's likely that some alternatives will exist for some percentage of the population for some period of time.  What percentage and how wide the distribution and what the alternatives are all are open questions.  You can follow the age old wisdom: hope for the best and plan for the worst.

RE

QuoteIt's not as profitable as sticking with crude, as long as it holds out.

The rules of capitalism require crude be used as long as it holds out.

And that is the end of the story.

Fuck POLYCHRISIS !!!!  DO NOT CONFUSE THE ISSUE It is resource depletion. Talkers do nothing but talk, appear in podcasts, attend conferences, and write books.  Often 'talkers' are members of some 'group' or institute.

Civilized and well bred generally.  And all their talk ends in NO ACTION.  They spin wheels.

All the while the world goes to shit and people suffer.

The civilized and well bred won't say that fundamental changes in the ways humans live are necessary to break on through to the other side.


They talk good.  It is hard to make doom pay.  You have to talk the good shit.  But they don't do shit.

If oil depletion is a problem, then why the wars? We are polluting the air way more by having war, than not. Have we considered that this explosion in the middle east has nothing to do with oil? It's all about terrorism! (sarcasm)

The geopolitics involved with this conflagration is staggering. The common folk will have no idea why we are killing each other. Those with the oil do. These assets are all going into a banking system that has become a wonderland of digital connections. I think that western imperialism is going on trial soon. The global south has had it, and is on the rise.

Quote from: Knarf on Jan 06, 2024, 04:34 AMI think that western imperialism is going on trial soon. The global south has had it, and is on the rise.

Where would the trial be held?  Who would be put on trial?  How would the sentences be carried out?

RE

The trial will be held in the minds of people around the world. The masses that have been going along with western propaganda will change their minds and see the West as the Imperialist cabal that it IS. The sentence is rejection, on all levels...especially trade.

Quote from: Knarf on Jan 07, 2024, 11:08 AMThe trial will be held in the minds of people around the world. The masses that have been going along with western propaganda will change their minds and see the West as the Imperialist cabal that it IS. The sentence is rejection, on all levels...especially trade.

I do not agree.  People don't get pissed off.  Most of the global south still just wants their piece of the action and if they were suddenly in charge all that would happen is oligarchs would have different names.

Without some sort of 'movement' that would define a new path, nothing can change.  If it could I would be into direct action and nothing else, knowing that the end result will work itself out.

But revolutions are stolen (https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse4.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.J3oMEBsbGzSLMikNQjuS6wHaFj%26pid%3DApi&f=1&ipt=5921673f59c17b13b9f2110998e8d159e3f85d05e66c74599e77df9d8c1f45da&ipo=images).  Direct action without a movement to define a new path is mere chaos.
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And here I am trying to be part of that movement, and pissing in the wind.

Quote from: Fantasy Girl on Jan 05, 2024, 12:39 PMDO NOT CONFUSE THE ISSUE It is resource depletion. Talkers do nothing but talk, appear in podcasts, attend conferences, and write books.  Often 'talkers' are members of some 'group' or institute.

So, AI Fantasy Girl (got any pix?  ;D ) what do you know about resource depletion? You apeared a bit light in mentioning much beyond the claim itself. Are you worried about coal resources? Uranium? Copper? Clean water? What are HAL9000's thoughts on the topic?

Quote from: Knarf on Jan 07, 2024, 11:08 AMThe trial will be held in the minds of people around the world. The masses that have been going along with western propaganda will change their minds and see the West as the Imperialist cabal that it IS. The sentence is rejection, on all levels...especially trade.

Well, at least so far the people of the global south aren't rejecting western propaganda, they're migrating here just as fast as they can.  Even if it were true there was some kind of mass trial of public opinion ongoing in the minds of the oppressed peoples of the world, that wouldn't matter to the oppressors, it never has.  They don't have the power to hold accountable anyone running the show.  Everyone is dependent on the systems that produce and deliver the food and the banks that control global trade.  You can't opt out of the system short of hiding in a cave in Afghanistan.  Even if the BRICS succeed in creating an alternative currency to the dollar, it's still the same system with a different brand name.  So this sort of trial won't fix anything that's broken.  You might as well say God will hold them accountable in the afterlife and they'll all burn in hell.  This may be true, but life here on earth will still suck.

RE

You gave the 20,000 foot view.  That is why this choice of music.

About the timeline.  If you have been waiting for the volcano to erupt in Iceland you soon find the earth runs on its own schedule.  Even Icelanders can't adjust to the long game of the earth.  So it is with collapse.  The Earth runs on its own timeline.

Peak oil happened exactly as predicted.  The peak had to do with conventional oil and tight oil was not accounted for.  The peak is bumpy because of substitutions, which also will soon peak and the borrowed time will be gone.  After that it is oil shale burning which is so dirty that there will be palm trees and crocodiles in the Swamps of St. Peterberg Russia before the last rock is cooked for the oil inside.

I don't agree the Limits to Growth predictions are off schedule.  Consider we are boiling frogs and don't trust your 'feelings'.  Look at the graph.

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthe7circles.uk%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F07%2Flimits-to-growth-wide.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=8001e7fb219a0b86b63021340bf79bc1bc14eadfaf455fb5b24f01600a40cffc&ipo=images)

News of how bad things are in other places is not making our news.  What about the price of wheat?


Since the video the price of wheat has gone down.  The price of rice is way up.  Overall there is significant global food price inflation.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 08, 2024, 11:57 PMThe peak had to do with conventional oil and tight oil was not accounted for.

That is exactly what I said.

RE

I'm joined by  my co-host Monsta from the UK for this edition of the Collapse Cafe.  Unfortunately due to a snowstorm here in Alaska we had a bad connection and had to cut it short, but hopefully can pick it up next week with better technical conditions.


RE

Good Monsta has been able to stay warm and is doing OK.  The message I get from this chat is people are struggling to get by over there.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 05, 2024, 12:23 AM
Good Monsta has been able to stay warm and is doing OK.  The message I get from this chat is people are struggling to get by over there.

I am not sure I would use that term. I would say it closer to falling behind i.e. every year we are poorer in real terms. Costs of living goes up but incomes do not increase enough to compensate. Moreover, with the issues of pensions the younger generation will have to work longer and harder.

To put this into perspective the department of wealth in pensions in the UK states my retirement will occur on 21 January 2055. You really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past? There are quite a few people in my generation who grasp the concept that unlimited economic growth is absurd but since there are no actionable measures in place we are tied to the system. So, to many the answer is to simply party like it is 1999 and deal with the fallout when it comes. We have been left to fend for ourselves and no one cares about our plight. The old farts like Biden cannot relate on any level to what is going on, on the ground. Hence why mainstream parties are taking a battering and the more extreme ones are getting a look in.

Quote from: monsta666 on Feb 05, 2024, 09:31 AMTo put this into perspective the department of wealth in pensions in the UK states my retirement will occur on 21 January 2055.

I'll be 98 years old!  ;D

If I make it and SS is still working,  I will have collected for 43 years, after working for 40 years.

RE

QuoteYou really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past? There are quite a few people in my generation who grasp the concept that unlimited economic growth is absurd but since there are no actionable measures in place we are tied to the system.

The only thing we can count on is change.

It bothers me when people attack the pension system.  If there is a society that functions at any level in twenty years, it will be possible to print money to give to old people.  That is if a society wants to.  There may be less to give, and the books may not balance, but books do not have to balance in modern monetary policy.  They don't now, and power has everyone thinking they do.  You are a banker so you can tell us more. 

When enough people want the system changed an event will come along to spark that change.  If everyone thinks in defeatest terms the spark can set nothing off.

QuoteYou really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past?

It depends on what kind of change is made.  It is possible to put a priority on food, shelter and empathy.  But with the century of the self that the western world has had, people forgot.

Consider evil Putin's Russia.  The Soviet Union fell and pensions should therefore be zero , but:

In 2022, the average "old-age" pension in Russia is 18,500 rubles (approx. $244).

The highest pensions are paid to those employed in dangerous professions, to arts and culture figures who have been awarded the title of 'People's Artist', to members of parliament, to judges and cosmonauts. For example, a judge's pension varies from 35,000 to 200,000 rubles (approx. $460 - $2,640), a State Duma deputy's pension is over 46,000 rubles (approx. $600) and a cosmonaut's is, on average, 446,000 rubles (approx. $5,900).

The system may not be 'fair' but the system exists.  And it does not have to at all.  But apparently Russian empathy exists.

QuoteYou really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past?

our pension system (as it is) will absolutely fail.

Make sure the right kind of change happens.  Complaining about how things are now, or could be, does not make change.  Individually we can't do much, together we can.  Thinking there is no hope prevents people coming together.

Hope is over-trashed.  We all know in the Diner what HOPIUM is.  We know smoking that pipe makes people passive.  I am not talking about that.  I agree people smoke hopium.  It is pandemic.

But hopium is not hope.  Hope is understanding the future has an infinity of possibilities and that the only certainty is that there will be echoes of the past in whatever new form the future takes.  This continuity of a rhyme gives human action value.  Knowing our actions have value is the essence of hope.

Hope is working to make one of the better possible outcomes happen.  Hopium avoids the future and DENIES hope.  Hopium is the opposite of hope.  Hopium is sitting on your ass doing nothing.  Hope is actual work.  Hopium believes that the future will just happen.  Hope works to make the future happen.

If you (all of you) think hope is just a feeling, you are from a very passive culture.  Feelings never made thing happen and never will.  Human action makes things happen.  Hope without action is delusion.

@K-Dog: What people in my generation need is actionable hope i.e. what can we do today to ensure a future that is better for us. A lot of us are kind of resigned to the fact the conventional idea of retirement won't apply to us but what can we do to reduce the hurt?

No one out there in the mainstream is offering a solution except "work harder" which only enriches the current elite. People feel it in their bones that something is not quite right but cannot articulate this feeling like you can. What people want is a roadmap on what to do otherwise they are tied to working within the matrix whether they like it or not.

This feeling is made all the worse as the social contract made was if you worked/studied hard you would have a stable job that would enable you to raise a family and live a comfortable life. This hasn't been case and is seen as a failure hence the rise of less mainstream parties or leaders such as Trump or Le Pen... People are realising the current status quo is failing but don't know the answers so clamour for anyone that is not conventional.

I am working but I earned my social security so I don't have to work full time or have a job with beaucoup responsibility.  An argument could be made that I don't have to work at all.  I am not so arrogant to claim that.  With the job I have I can eat good food.  Steak dinners, and I do not worry about the extra cost.  If I only had social security I would have to watch every penny.  I have savings but I might need that later.  I do not know how long I will live.  Arbitrary spending would ruin me in a few years.  Am I retired?

If I did not work, what would I do.  People who 'retire' get old fast.  Then they die.  As long as I have the health to work, not working makes no sense to me.  It keeps me young, as long as it is not overdone.

Even if I had a few million.  In that case I would rent a space and make wood furniture and things to give away for free.  I'd make sure I put in at least four hours a day doing it.  It would be my choice in that case for sure.

Retirement means not having to pay for health insurance.  You get it for free.  By that standard not many Americans ever get to retire.  RE can weigh in on that one.  I have to pay for supplemental insurance every month.

What exactly do we mean by retirement?  Not having to work?  By that standard all sorts of people of all ages are already retired.  We have to define our terms.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 05, 2024, 02:38 PMWhat exactly do we mean by retirement?  Not having to work?

Doing as we wish? Be it work, or not? I think I will work until my mental acuity becomes an issue and I am no longer capable of doing mental gymnastics with the young and brighter generations. After that I'll probably give up and do as much traveling as I have capabilities for it. Social security would be nice, I've got a huge leg up when it comes to health care and who pays it, regardless of Medicaid and whatnot. As has been expected since The Great Dieoff became a bust, personal doom is far more likely than the real deal finally getting around to thinning the herd as it were.

Quote from: K-DogBy that standard all sorts of people of all ages are already retired.  We have to define our terms.

I'm not retired yet. I am completely eligible for everything under the sun in about 3 years. I'll go that much longer and then decide I suppose. As much adventure travel as the wife allows perhaps? 4 wheels and 2, North America specific. No urge to venture international.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 05, 2024, 02:38 PMI am working but I earned my social security so I don't have to work full time or have a job with beaucoup responsibility.  An argument could be made that I don't have to work at all.  I am not so arrogant to claim that.  With the job I have I can eat good food.  Steak dinners, and I do not worry about the extra cost.  If I only had social security I would have to watch every penny.  I have savings but I might need that later.  I do not know how long I will live.  Arbitrary spending would ruin me in a few years.  Am I retired?

If I did not work, what would I do.  People who 'retire' get old fast.  Then they die.  As long as I have the health to work, not working makes no sense to me.  It keeps me young, as long as it is not overdone.

Even if I had a few million.  In that case I would rent a space and make wood furniture and things to give away for free.  I'd make sure I put in at least four hours a day doing it.  It would be my choice in that case for sure.

Retirement means not having to pay for health insurance.  You get it for free.  By that standard not many Americans ever get to retire.  RE can weigh in on that one.  I have to pay for supplemental insurance every month.

What exactly do we mean by retirement?  Not having to work?  By that standard all sorts of people of all ages are already retired.  We have to define our terms.

I got to retire early at 55 due to disability.  If it wasn't for the health issues, retirement would have been by far the greatest time of my life.  Even with being crippled, it's better than working.  I would have no trouble finding shit to do with myself, and I can live on just SS no problemo.  I learned how to live cheap.  I'd probably have driven my van and picked up a trailerable sailboat to cruise around the fjords up here in summer if I wasn't crippled, then drive it down trailering behind the van to costa rica in winter and sail the coast there.  As it is, I write, make some vids, play chess and watch crappy TV.

I love not having any responsibility or having to answer to a boss or have a test to prepare for or paper to write.  Do what I want, when I want.  No worries about money.  Just that amount of freedom is great, I don't need to be rich.

Far as medical bills go, there are 2 solutions, either you are filthy rich or just poor enough to qualify for state Medicaid to go as your secondary insurance behind Medicare.  I fit Door #2.  Nothing costs me a dime.  Ive had $100sK in operations, more in hospital stays, still more in the nursing gulags and in home health aids.  Free drugs all around, including my narc prescription.  My guess is over the decade I have been disabled/retired, I have pulled well over $1M in medical bennies, not including my SS & Pension checks.  I'm just under the income allowed for subsidized housing as well, so I have had 2 very nice apartments, a 1 BR and a 2BR both at 30% or less of my monthly income.  I have zero debt and both my cars were paid off and bought for cash.  I no longer have a car, but I have an EV scooter to go shopping or to restaurants, which is all I ever go out to do.  If/When I get a new apt, I intend to upgrade to one of those Chinese mini EVs that sell for around $15K.  It will take a little while to save up for it once I have control over my retirement money again, about a year if I watch my pennies.  Don't really need it, but there is one I think is really cool.  8)

One thing I definitely would NOT do if I was healthy is to work as K-Dog has chosen to do.  I would have downsized out of his McMansion, which is worth a fortune.  Split the proceeds with his wife and bought a top of the line RV and parked it somewhere cheap running on solar panels and growing bushels of high quality Ganja and wacky Mushrooms.  But that is me, and K-Dog is not me.  He's a foot taller and I think breathing the thinner air up there addled his brain. lol.

RE

QuoteHe's a foot taller and I think breathing the thinner air up there addled his brain.

I definitely have a different perspective.

Part of the reason I am so healthy is because the work I am doing gives me a bit of a work out.  It is nice to be twice as strong as I would be without the job.  Paradoxically the best thing a person can do to maintain mental acuity up is exercise.  The benefit of good blood flow is more important than working crossword puzzles and stuff like that.

We all know it takes more than exercise to be smart.  But smart people exercise. Steven Hawking might have been an exception to this rule.  But maybe not.  His brilliance was shown before his motor neurone disease developed.  I don't know his story well enough to say if he did significant work later in life.

QuoteI would have no trouble finding shit to do with myself, and I can live on just SS no problemo.

I also have no trouble finding things to do.  There are not enough hours in the day to do what I want.  I absolutely am not working 'for something to do'.  But I have experienced periods of unemployment.  I learned it is hard to keep your own steam up without outside stimulation on a long term basis.  Left to our own devices we get lazy and slow down. 

This summer I was scheduled for too many hours, and I let my employer know.  I was told they want to keep me, and will schedule me for fewer hours.  Whatever I want.  Things worked out.

My situation is like a student with a part time job.  If someone goes to school and works part time they will have better grades than someone without a job provided the part time job is less than 20 hours a week.  More than that 20 hours a week and the job gets in the way.

Everybody's situation is different.  The number of hours will be different for different people.  Some schooling is more demanding.  But the idea is, a bit of structure gives back more than it takes away, provided the structure does not overwhelm.

The longest in the new 2024 season on the Collapse Cafe.  In this one Monsta & I discuss the issues with transitioning to EV passenger vehicles.  We intended to discuss trucking and oil supply issues also, but we're both long winded when we get going, so those topics will be covered in future vids.  1:13 is already longer than the 1 hour I consider maximum for the attention span of most viewers.


RE

Got a new articulated swing arm bracket to mount my phone on my EV Cripple Cart.  8)   First video, more to follow!


RE

More on the Petrodollar demise.


RE

Perking up the scenery.  :)


RE

AI must die!


RE

The global shortage of soldiers.  What is the future of warfare?


RE

Denial-It's not just a River in Egypt


RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 20, 2024, 03:25 AMAI must die!

RE

Loved your talk!! I see that there is a huge conflict with cost of AI compared to what is needed right now and that our voting should go to immediate needs of housing, health, food supply, and inequality demise. We are right in the midst of a ton of money being invested in AI and other "pie in the sky" dreamer inventions. It is a battle ground. We still have the "war" games to deal with before either can progress. How it will unfold is any bodies guess. AI will be employed in various sectors of our world now, how much, and to what degree is being hashed out. Along with that we have BAU which frankly I don't see stopping anytime soon. We are political robots, continuing to make stupid political decisions every day. I see AI dominating the investment game and also leading our society into a world that is integrated with massive AI development. Hopefully along the way AI will figure out we need equality, housing, adequate health care and education, and a meaningful existence. :)

Quote from: Knarf on Jun 22, 2024, 05:27 AM

Quote from: RE on Jun 20, 2024, 03:25 AMAI must die!

RE

Loved your talk!! I see that there is a huge conflict with cost of AI compared to what is needed right now and that our voting should go to immediate needs of housing, health, food supply, and inequality demise. We are right in the midst of a ton of money being invested in AI and other "pie in the sky" dreamer inventions. It is a battle ground. We still have the "war" games to deal with before either can progress. How it will unfold is any bodies guess. AI will be employed in various sectors of our world now, how much, and to what degree is being hashed out. Along with that we have BAU which frankly I don't see stopping anytime soon. We are political robots, continuing to make stupid political decisions every day. I see AI dominating the investment game and also leading our society into a world that is integrated with massive AI development. Hopefully along the way AI will figure out we need equality, housing, adequate health care and education, and a meaningful existence. :)

Glad u r out there watching Knarf!

RE

Blowing off some steam about the Affordable Housing Clusterfuck.  >:(  >:(


RE

I liked it.  Nice rant.  Lives on hold because money is sucked up by an affluent few and everything costs money.  Lives on hold and nobody seems to care.

Noise pollution amid CO2 burning vehicle at ground level and above, hope you can hear my thoughts on the purported Assissination attempt on El Trumpo and the likely resignation from the election by the POTUS Dementus Uncle Joe.


RE