Doomstead

I thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Quote from: ed_from on Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PMI thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Considering that I once bought gas for 17 cents a gallon in a gas war and getting to and from work now sucks up about an hour of the work shift, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

Youth has nothing to compare the present to.  The frog not noticing they are being boiled to death is an accurate portrayal of society.  Scenic vistas once destroyed are forgotten.

Old farts sayin -- Son I remember when.....

Don't get remembered.

The better question is how long ago did the bad stuff start?

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Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 01, 2023, 12:37 AMThe better question is how long ago did the bad stuff start?

It was well underway by the time they paved paradise to put up a parking lot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2595abcvh2M

RE

You could trace it back a little further though.  Breathing in Victorian era London was pretty unpleasant.

(https://images.theconversation.com/files/194345/original/file-20171113-27579-jiytkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1200&h=675.0&fit=crop)

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RE

If we try and go back too far we defeat our purpose.

Doom is a fact of life.  No matter how far back we go we find doom.  So why have the Doomstead if doom is just a fact of life!?

Because the kind of doom we concern ourselves with here has human roots.  Climate change, resource depletion. These are problems that humans caused themselves.  Doom as the result of human action or INACTION is our primary concern, though decent material concerning doom in general is welcome.

Breathing in Victorian era London was pretty unpleasant. certainly qualifies as human caused.

QuoteAs soon as I escaped from the oppressive atmosphere of the city, and from that awful odour of reeking kitchens which, when in use, pour forth a ruinous mess of steam and soot, I perceived at once that my health was mending... So I am my old self again, feeling now no wavering languor in my system, and no sluggishness in my brain.

Seneca AD 64-65

The point being to save as many as you can.

Quote from: Tonyprep on Aug 01, 2023, 03:30 PMAll species degrade the environment

That is a very specious argument.  All living things use energy to grow and they create waste in the process, but the waste product of one life form provides the energy and or building blocks for another.  Worms digest human waste, worm shit feeds plants, the waste product of photosynthesis is free oxygen which serves as the electron reciver for the krebs cycle which produces ATP which provides chemical energy for animals...round and round she goes.  It's a constant dissipative cycle that runs as long as the sun keeps providing the right amount of energy for the system to run, not too much or too little.

Homo Sap fit right in to this whole system quite well until we learned to control fire and began consuming copious amounts of energy faster than the sun regenerated it.  First we burned whole forests, then we moved on to the fossil fuels.  That was when the degradation began.

RE

QuoteAll species degrade the environment

I don't mean to pick on you Tony P.  But I have to say that I learned that is not true last week.  I have been into You-Tubes about the ancient past. 

I learned some things about insect evolution.

Before insects decay could not keep up with plant growth, and the world swung between snowball earths when ice miles thick covered all land and when land was all backing desert.  No decay meant CO2 was depleted and global temperature went below freezing.  New volcanic activity then would bring new CO2,and the earth became baking desert until plants cooled things down to make a brief paradise.  But the plants could not decay. The cycle repeated.  This happened several times.

Insects burrow into plants transferring fungus and bacteria to internal plant parts by their action, greatly increasing decay.  Fungi evolved to digest lignin and insects distribute the fungi.  Enough so that the planetary system is stabilized.

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QuoteSpecific lineages within the basidiomycete fungi, white rot species, have evolved the ability to break up a major structural component of woody plants, lignin.

Keeping the correct amount of CO2 in the air turns out to be a big deal.

Who coulda knowd?

Peak oil not talked about right now because everyone is distracted with other issues.

Fracking, deep water drilling and bio-fuels all are reactions to peak oil... Easy stuff is gone. No more spindle top gushers...
Now where is that cartoon I posted 3 forums and about 10 years ago?

Here it is. My favourite peak oil video still on youtube!


Fuel here is hovering around $2.10 a litre. When I started drivig it was $0.20 a litre. 10 fold in 35 years.

Peak oil is adding to inflation, and all we know how to do is print more money, adding to inflation.
The correct response is use less... But... No government will ever get elected telling people your chldren will have a lower standard of living than you, hence the cycle goes on until we fall off a clif, One of many, we are rushing towards:

Ecconomic collapse
Food shortage
Environmental collapse
Social collapse
Wars
Population collapse
IQ collapse?...


Hmm, seeing all of these right now already. Maybe we are already in free fall?

Western ecconomic society needs to grow to survive. its basd on increasing money supply. It needs cheap energy to do this. We have run out of chep energy. De-growth is the only path forward. Some call this collapse. Most think we can avoid it. We can only delay.


JOW

Arthur Berman says 2-3 years and the world is going to know that dino juice production will not keep up with demand.


And all the strings that bind together modern life begin to fray.

After the short video a much longer one with Arthur played. 

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Winds of a perfect storm gather.  An energy depletion storm with monumental waves of disruption will soon break upon the world.

According to Arthur our use of fossil fuel has not decreased.  There is no green transition.  Green energy is only 5% of an increasing total.  In a few years there is going to be some serious grim-reaping going on.  The commission of excess emission continues to climb.

Jevon's paradox is understood by less than 5% of humanity.  Global heating is a narrow view of the problem.  The size of the human enterprise is simply too big, and the number of people capable of change too small.

We be doomed.  The beginning of the end.  Peak oil needs to be redefined.  The peak occurs when insufficient supplies can no longer fund the American experiment.  Then it all comes down.


It is not that Americans are special, but America is at the nexus of the house of cards.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 01:20 PMArthur Berman says 2-3 years and the world is going to know that dino juice production will not keep up with demand.

Art Berman said on video in 2011, introduced by the head of ASPO on the footsteps of the DOE Forrestal building in Washington, that there was no significant oil is US shales.

Currently the 3 shale plays in the Permian are making maybe, 5 mmbbl/d, the Eagle Ford is making 1 mmbbl/d, the Bakken is making something like 1.1-1.2 mmbbl/d, and a couple others make about 8 mmbbl/d total

Graphic with all US shale oil production here (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/images/u.s.tight_oil_production.jpg)

US shales are making more oil, right now, than everyone in OPEC except Saudi Arabia. If the US could ONLY be a shale oil producer (arguably they are, call it mini-me US), it would be the 2nd largest producer in OPEC, and the 3rd largest producer on the planet. Beating out all of China, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Canada, UAE, etc etc.

What might it take in your eyes K-Dog, to disqualify the value of a petroleum geologist's opinion? Would not knowing there is...you know...OIL....in shale oil formations qualify?

And if, in fact, a petroleum geologist not knowing about oil in shale rocks isn't disqualifying at the most OMG HOW DID THAT EVER HAPPEN!!!! level, what might be?

Tell us how long the oil Bonanza will last TDOS.

Berman says new wells now only produce 2/3 of what new wells produced a few years ago.  Do you think he is lying about that?

Tell us what we are going to eat when the bonanza is over.  Arthur Berman's character which you seem to have a personal problem with, has nothing to do with the truth of what he says.  The truth of what he says is right or wrong based on objective facts.

How long will it be before a diesel truck can't deliver you Cheetos any more   (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/CheetosCrop.jpg/440px-CheetosCrop.jpg)  ?

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 04:07 PMTell us how long the oil Bonanza will last TDOS.

I only know of one internet poster, one specialist, and a few hints they have dropped on the internet a year or three back now, spotted in a few very particular places over the years, who has ever claimed such a thing...and what was amusing about that person's answer was that it was framed in exactly the context almost never brought up within the peak oil sphere.

And the answer itself was completely worthless. But what it revealed was....revolutionary.

Quote from: K-DogBerman says new wells now only produce 2/3 of what new wells produced a few years ago.  Do you think he is lying about that?

Did he say this was absolute volumes or normalized to lateral length? Which particular formations? Did he correct for changes in drilling locations as newer wells, or perhaps older ones, turned out to have been in the Tier 1 acreage, versus the other lesser acreage as the Tier 1 became depleted? Or more Tier 1 was discovered?

In terms of folks giving HINTS at having tackled the US shales in the right way, I have only proof of one gang releasing information showing they know far more than they usually let on, and you've never seen from Art in his professional career. The answer has nothing to do with if Art is correct or not, because absolute volumes aren't the metric...economic viability is.

I've used this article before (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2022/220803/includes/analysis_print.php) as a reference for a reason. Because no one else cuts these loose. Don't know if it is because folks like Art can't, or won't, or the others that make them charge for the info because that's how valuable it is.

If these folks have done this work for all shales in the US, they have the answer to the question you just asked. But someone who doesn't know oil in US shale formations even exists? What level of getting it wrong discredits Art's opinion K-Dog? How many 2+2=5 exercises before a source discredits every word coming out of their mouths....even if you WANT to believe it?

TDOS,  when people pin you down you don't answer.  You are a cornicopian.  I asked you,  tell us how long the oil bonanza will last?

Tell us in you own words.  I will make it easier on you this time and only answer one of the questions.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 04:58 PMTDOS,  when people pin you down you don't answer.

Et Tu, Brute? I have asked more than a few of my own....and they have been avoided with alacrity. One of them this very evening on your most current reference...and I provided the information to allow you to answer as easy as I could. Of what quality is the reference you provided, in light of their track record?

Quote from: K-DogYou are a cornicopian.  I asked you,  tell us how long the oil bonanza will last?

Define "bonanza". Volume or price. And the scale of the question. Domestic or global?

And I am a doomer. Just not like one of those you defined earlier i.e. the faith based who ignore conflicting evidence, facts and even reality in order to proclaim a result they like. You explained them quite well. Being a doomer is childs play based on nothing more than perspective. All it requires is an understanding that the Sun is getting lighter every day, and the astrophysical doom that guarentees.

Quote from: K-DogTell us in you own words.  I will make it easier on you this time and only answer one of the questions.

Cool. I put it in bold last time so you wouldn't miss it. Here it is again.
What might it take in your eyes K-Dog, to disqualify the value of a petroleum geologist's opinion?

Your question was "tell us how long the oil bonanza will last?"

Give me the framework of interest and I'll give you my answer. Price or volume. And scale.

QuoteWhat might it take in your eyes K-Dog, to disqualify the value of a petroleum geologist's opinion?

If they have an advanced degree from an accredited university, quite a fucking lot.  They would have to spew nonsense that can be refuted.  Now answer my question.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 06:05 PM

QuoteWhat might it take in your eyes K-Dog, to disqualify the value of a petroleum geologist's opinion?

If they have an advanced degree from an accredited university, quite a fucking lot.

Art has a history degree from somewhere, and a geology masters from Colorado School of Mines. It is a good school. So when as a petroleum geologist, with at least some minor experience with a major, states that when shale source rock can't have any left in it of significant volume in 2011, and folks from lesser schools turn that oil from shale rock into the world's 3rd largest producing source....well...it just seems that 8 mmbbl/d is quite a fucking lot.

Quote from: K-DogThey would have to spew nonsense that can be refuted.  Now answer my question.

Good. Perfect description of Art and the example I mentioned. We can put aside his nonsense about well productivity change until he gets an engineering degree and hope he can use it better than his geology one, like geolgists that can't find 8 mmbbl/d as it is being developed under their feet can be counted on to be able to add or subtract correctly, let alone get the training to be taken seriously by those who do well prpoductivity for a living.


Happy to answer your question. You didn't provide the reference of the answer so I'll fill it in for you. Domestic. And I'll do both price and volumes.

The US is burning through that 8 mmbbl/d = 2.9 billion/yr. Currently US total production has been relatively flat this year, so I will assume first that flat will continue. Oil prices running $80/bbl or so, companies focusing on return to investors rather than growth, rig counts began dropping last spring, been stable for awhile. Flat currently is a good start.

To figure reserves you multiple 2.9 billion X (6-8) to get the approximate amount of produced oil if you stopped drilling new wells tomorrow. So call that 20 billion barrels produced over through mid-century. Figure out remaining area in each of the big oil plays and you're looking at maybe 14 million acres. Take the wells drilled, in the big oil plays anyway, call that 49,000 at 150 acres each and you discount 7.4 million of those acres. So you figure that development of slightly over half the area netted you maybe 7 billion cum, +20 of existing production from them in the future. Lets call the remaining less than that, so another 25 billion. Assuming stable production in the $55-$100/bbl range, and the same type of rampup of new wells to get to the point of replacing the 2.9 that is declining away over the next quarter century, you might be able to sustain the current rate for 10 years of buildup of new, same as the old. Seems reasonable. Presume existing prices though, and then variation becomes a acreage tier issue. You know...stuff geologists know....except for discredited ones. Higher prices have the chance to offset declines and even provide gains in exchange for lower rates later, even at the higher prices. Low prices slow the entire process down, including current rates, but extend a given rate longer. Low prices and slowdowns also have the potential to create another peak at a later point in time. I know....again...?

So the oil that Art claimed couldn't be significant and turned into the 3rd largest oil producing rock in the world (and rocketed the US to being the world's largest oil producer....again) can be sized at about 50 billion barrels, call it twice the size of Prudhoe Bay in place volumes. Just a back of envelope WAG of course.

So the US will be a substantial producer for quite some period of time, with holding oil prices, and no one changing the rules for the producers along the way, always a popular idea among the save the world types.

The bad news is this...US oil prices aren't based on US costs. They are based on international prices, storage and strategic volumes, OPEC proclamations and curtailments, and those are all about geopolitics. So those who don't know dick about oil particulars, like maybe Art, might be better off inventing cool global scenarios, the knock on effects of which can cascade all over US oil prices and the economy at large.

Quotesustain the current rate for 10 years of buildup of new, same as the old. Seems reasonable.

Ten years, then as production can not be maintained, what happens?  Ten years how much time is that.

This was the number one song of 2014.  Ten years ago.


Ten years is the blink of an eye.  After which no preparations have been made.  Peak thinking did pollute brains because the end will not resemble a gradual fading away.  Things will go to shit fast.

In ten more years the biosphere collapse will show that the human race is in overshoot beyond any doubt.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 08:40 PM

Quotesustain the current rate for 10 years of buildup of new, same as the old. Seems reasonable.

Ten years, then as production can not be maintained, what happens?  Ten years how much time is that.

Ten years was how long it took the US to begin ramping up oil from shale and become the world's largest oil producer, and repeak the country some half a century after the last time.

What happens next is called the Texas ROZ. You can't ask Art about it, he'll say the same thing he said last time. And the folks who knew he was full of shit then are busy doing the same thing all over again. The cost will require a higher base price, but the last time I noticed a volume attached to it, that number was twice as large as the one I just gave you for light tight oil from shale formations. Another 100 billion.

Let me guess, Art didn't mention that one in his video? That research stuff does come in handy on occasion. Someone should tell Art, so he can deny it doen't exist like the last time. That would be a riot in another decade.

Quote from: K-DogTen years is the blink of an eye. 

True. The US went from leftover has-been to world leading oil and gas producer and LNG exporter in about that long.

Quote from: K-DogAfter which no preparations have been made.

Says who? Maybe there are folks out there doing that thing again...research? Maybe they were talking about it 15 years ago, and Art didn't notice that either? Maybe they began experimenting with the processes for at least 8 years now? Maybe their current beef is they can't get the oil price they want? 

Quote from: K-DogPeak thinking did pollute brains because the end will not resemble a gradual fading away.  Things will go to shit fast.

Well, we know it'll take longer than 6 years, right? And can go to 15, because we've already been post peak oil that long as well. So what are you thinking? 20 maybe? Gives us another 14 then maybe?

Quote from: K-DogIn ten more years the biosphere collapse will show that the human race is in overshoot beyond any doubt.

Could be, but that doesn't require yet another peak oil involved. Humans have plenty of stuff to keep polluting the biosphere with besides just burning stuff. Plus we've got the feedback loops going now, rising oceans and whatnot.

I think sticking with biosphere pollution and climate change is a great end times angle than peak oil stuff.

Sorry to hear about all the lost forum data and whatnot. That always sucks.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 01, 2023, 12:37 AM

Quote from: ed_from on Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PMI thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Considering that I once bought gas for 17 cents a gallon in a gas war and getting to and from work now sucks up about an hour of the work shift, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

I once bought cheap gas in the US as well...us all being geezers and all. I also once lived in a state that had rationing when the 1979 global peak oil hit. The US hasn't seen state wide rationing since the late 70's has it?

And traveling to work is all about cost, you picked gas cost. Bummer. We are victims of our choices sometimes, certainly an hour of my work shift is 2250 miles of EV driving a stupid cage, at night time electricity charging rates. My current gas powered commuting 2 wheeler is worth about 1950 miles.  More efficient commuting for everyone, and geriatrics can help save the world!

Pretty stiff premium to be able to broadcast social status while just going to and from work seems like, or fuel is crazy expensive in the PAC NW?

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 20, 2025, 05:52 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 01, 2023, 12:37 AM

Quote from: ed_from on Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PMI thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Considering that I once bought gas for 17 cents a gallon in a gas war and getting to and from work now sucks up about an hour of the work shift, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

I once bought cheap gas in the US as well...us all being geezers and all. I also once lived in a state that had rationing when the 1979 global peak oil hit. The US hasn't seen state wide rationing since the late 70's has it?

And traveling to work is all about cost, you picked gas cost. Bummer. We are victims of our choices sometimes, certainly an hour of my work shift is 2250 miles of EV driving a stupid cage, at night time electricity charging rates. My current gas powered commuting 2 wheeler is worth about 1950 miles.  More efficient commuting for everyone, and geriatrics can help save the world!

Pretty stiff premium to be able to broadcast social status while just going to and from work seems like, or fuel is crazy expensive in the PAC NW?

Working always costs money, There are obvious costs.  A minimum $6 a shift for fossil fuel, the elective chocolate croissant and coffee for about $5.20.  I need it for strength.  Toss that box.  Tote that bale.  On a Seattle McJob wage that is about half an hour in mandatory expenses.
     There are also hidden costs that are hard to articulate, but you know they are they.  Simply being a wage slave makes you a consumer and when you have sold your time you must spend more on your off time to make up for the labor you stole from yourself to sell to someone else.
     This makes me very irritated when I am stuck with four hour shifts.  I figure an hour of my 'working day' is simple overhead from having to work.  That makes a hidden tax on the job of 25% doubling the visible cost to account for hidden costs.  (not likely accurate, but you have to start somewhere, and the actual hidden costs are larger IMHO).  Once I have four hours that are all mine, I am OK with the arrangement.
     Hidden costs also scale with income.  I get my work shirts at my McJob for free.  If I had not worked in the more casual professional era when I slummed as an engineer I would have had to have a suit.  The peoples car of the low tier American working class it the Toyota.  The higher tier class traitors of the American working class drive more expensive cars.  Assholes drive Teslas.

Bottom line, I am not a happy camper when I work four hour shifts.  I feel like I am getting screwed.  And I do not think I am wrong.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 20, 2025, 07:04 PMThis makes me very irritated when I am stuck with four hour shifts.  I figure an hour of my 'working day' is simple overhead from having to work.  That makes a hidden tax on the job of 25% doubling the visible cost to account for hidden costs.  (not likely accurate, but you have to start somewhere, and the actual hidden costs are larger IMHO).  Once I have four hours that are all mine, I am OK with the arrangement.

Well...then a 5 hour shift gives you four hours that are yours. But you are still stuck with an hours worth of "tax" to make it happen.

ALways thought of these types of things as "fixed costs". Regardless of job, you drive there. Whether you eat along the way or buy some groceries and make your own sandwich, a fixed cost regardless. Lump these types of things into just "life". I really like doing X! Pay to play. Or work.

Quote from: K-DogHidden costs also scale with income.  I get my work shirts at my McJob for free.  If I had not worked in the more casual professional era when I slummed as an engineer I would have had to have a suit.  The peoples car of the low tier American working class it the Toyota.  The higher tier class traitors of the American working class drive more expensive cars.  Assholes drive Teslas.

Well, never placed much value in how people decide to advertise their social class with clothes or jewerly or cars. You can find assholes behind the wheel of any automobile...same as you can an incompetent driver.

My wife falls for the status broadcasting with cars and clothes and whatnot. Maybe most do...otherwise advertising wouldn't work. I find it hysterical and take advantage of it everytime sometime broadcasts that they've fallen for it...or not, and work it in both directions just to watch the shocked look when someone expects one version of what they think you are, and you show up as the other. It works in both directions. I get giggles out of it every time.

Quote from: K-DogBottom line, I am not a happy camper when I work four hour shifts.  I feel like I am getting screwed.  And I do not think I am wrong.

Everyone gets screwed, one way or another when it comes to costs related to work. I consider buying suits to have to do dog and pony shows irritating. Just a cost of doing business/work.

The idea that less will be used in the future is a fantasy.  'Prices' will go up when production does not meet demand, and demand will be reduced until a hard limit is reached as supply is reduced to the point where society can't function.  By then everything will have gone to shit.

By 2030 prices will have to rise to reduce use by 50%.  One way or another consumption must fall.

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025

Looks like US peak oil (again) in 2028 or so?

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=1-AEO2025&region=0-0&cases=ref2025&start=2023&end=2050&f=A&sourcekey=0

EIA models assume some continued growth before decline sets in.  The EIA assumes continued investment, no geopolitical disruption, and no massive demand collapse.

It that graph is right, then it will be bizness as usual for two to three years.  After that American frogs begin to warm up.



Just enough time for the upper class to lower our living standards.  To get us ready for their future.


Closet self-serving doomers with an Armageddon complex are running the country.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 04, 2025, 04:31 PMEIA models assume some continued growth before decline sets in.

Looks that way. It has happened before. Decline setting in.

2015.2020. Most recent STEO says Q4 2025 and decline after.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=30&f=Q&s=&start=200001&end=202604&id=&maptype=0&ctype=linechart&linechart=~COPRPUS&map=

Quote from: K-DogThe EIA assumes continued investment, no geopolitical disruption, and no massive demand collapse.

Pretty much BAU. They sometimes do scenarios of high/low resource and various other types of things, prices and whatnot. They tend to focus on econometric models, and don't get involved much, by design and definition, with more than "legs and regs" as they put it. Legislation and Regulation.

Additionally, one of the only global peak oil estimates of the early 21st century that hasn't been discredited yet is the one the EIA did, based on USGS resource assessments.

They don't do stochastic much though. The lead modeler they had from around 2012 through 2018 or so was pure genius. He was responsible in part for getting their global oil and gas model built, which ended up answering the global peak oil issue some years ago, I think after he left.

Quote from: K-DogCloset self-serving doomers with an Armageddon complex are running the country.

I was under the impression that an orange dementia addled geriatric was running the country. Doomers anything have been in hiding for awhile now. Hell, resilience.org can't even get a good doom topic going as of late, they've about abandoned the peak oil angle altogether.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 14, 2025, 12:43 PMTDoS, this is your link where you posted this graph. (https://chasingthesquirrel.com/doomstead/index.php?msg=4902)

(https://chasingthesquirrel.com/public/pics/chartofdecline.png)

And it is why you are a troll.  You wrote this and I am responding to it.

I'm a troll.....because you THOUGHT I didn't know about AEO results? I do know about AEO results. Quite some time ago. What is the point? I'm a troll...because you read provided information? This is great!!

Quote from: K-Dog

QuoteAmerican LNG exports coming online means there is some coin to be made producing NG in the US....us now being the world's largest producer of both oil and gas. And word's largest exporter of LNG. Profits to feed the capitalism beast!

Your own graph which you used to counter my assertion that:

➡️ By 2030, approximately 50% of current oil supply will be lost to natural decline.

➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.

You posted a graph of energy of crude oil anad lease condensate. In quads. That decline is maybe 1 quad out of 29 between a maximum and 2030. So where did you get gasoline supply failure imminent? Did the EIA say that, or did you not read the graph correctly and karnacked a 3.4% drop in energy into gasoline supply failure? Jesus man, you've got more brains than that, are you posting high again or something?

As far as "demand holding steady", maybe it will, maybe it won't. But you didn't show an EIA graph of demand assumptions, they certainly exist. Did you not reference that one because it doesn't say what you did? Did they SAY "gasoline supply failure imminent!" somewhere. Because if they did, I missed that.

Quote from: K-DogJust came back to haunt you.  You published clear evidence for decline, yet you pivot into a make America great posture.  Just let let the horses run free.  Prosperity is here for those who ride.

Once again...good thing I didn't say those things. Instead I just posted that the US might be peaking. Again. And the world already has, and we all know the HORRORS that has caused. You not able to fuel up the Benz, petro chemical production cratering, gas rationing just like global peak oil in 1979....all these horrors! Obviously the MIB have been erasing all internet news of these events.

Now that you have written new code to keep the MIB out, you can post some real news showing all the rationing and people with cars that won't move because they can't get fuel and whatever? It would be a big scoop for the website!

Quote from: K-DogAfter that the discount at the gas pump you get for buying groceries is going away.

Please. Keep up. I bought a BRAND NEW EV for an easy 405 LESS than your environmentally friendly do-gooder heat pump....why in the world would I give a shit about gas pumps and discounts for buying groceries? Again...I wrote an entire post about that cheap EV ON YOUR BLOG HERE. You missed it? Or just decided to assign this strawman to me forgetting that not everyone is an ICE powered polluter of the world (you know, folks who DO use gas..or DIESEL...pumps).


Peak has always been, and always will be a given. Hubbert's math in his seminal paper in 1956 was correct. Good thing  that Hubbert also wrote (when he declared US peak oil by 1950 back in the late 30's) that there might be multiple peaks along the way!

The man was a genius. Boy was he right! 2025....yet another US peak! Now the question will be can there be more? The answer is obviously dependent on other factors, but I am currently pessimistic. But the means to make it happen might require the same sea change in the economics of resource development that has OBVIOUSLY happened multile times before. You won't find any of thsi knowledge among the peakers, and they tend to be really embarassed nowadays after their hollering and screaming and getting it all wrong the last couple of times.

Official Moderation Notice

Regarding TDoS's violations of the Doomstead Diner Code of Conduct

Catalogued Violations

    Strawmanning (Severity: High):
    Deliberately conflated supply, my claim with production, the graph, despite knowing the distinction.

    Sarcasm/Personal Attacks (3 counts, 3-day ban each):

        "Posting high again?" → Mocking
        "Can't fuel up the Benz" → Ridicule
        "MIB erasing news" → Suggesting I am paranoid

Action

    9-day ban to commence tomorrow at a time of my choosing. 

For Virgin Eyes, what this is about.

My actual claims (vs. TDoS's distortions):

➡️ By 2030, approximately 50% of current oil supply will be lost to natural decline.

➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.

Production is related to supply, but they are not the same thing.  TDoS fully understands the difference but cares to muddy the waters.  TDoS is a Troll who countered my claims with a graph concerning Production not Supply.  Which was the actual content of my claim.

Even on the graph TDoS posted, by 2030 we are in steep decline.  By then we will be in a different economy.

Quotethe means to make it happen might require the same sea change in the economics of resource development that has OBVIOUSLY happened multiple times before.

Multiple times, and so on.  Rinse and repeat. Technology will save us, so claims TDoS.  For now and forever.  I say otherwise.

QuoteSo where did you get gasoline supply failure imminent?

I get that wherever I want to get it because I make my own interpretations.  My analysis considers exports are going to take the place of what Americans will not be able to buy when the economy fails.  I see shortages ahead when supply chains fail.

Ten years goes by in the blink of an eye.  After which no preparations are made.  The end will not resemble a gradual fading away.  Things will go to shit fast.  The Seneca cliff.

As shale output declines and imports face global competition, shortages and supply instability happens. This could happen sooner if black swan events occur, and once there are supply chain problems, they will not be easily resolved. The complexity of the oil industry means that when something goes wrong, it can be difficult to fix, and it's not as simple as just sticking a pipe in the ground as it once was.

The U.S. shale boom was a one-time geological lottery win, not a sustainable energy revolution. The idea that we can just "do it all over again" with the Texas ROZ (Residual Oil Zones) or some other unproven play is dangerous fantasy.

The last decade's surge was built on cheap money, prime acreage, and OPEC's price umbrella.  None of which exist today.  Permian producers now need $65-$96/barrel for breakeven, but prices are projected to fall to $59 by 2026.

Investors are done bankrolling growth.  After $300 billion in losses, Wall Street wants dividends, and reckless drilling is a gamble they do not want to take.

Declining rig counts, and a looming supply cliff is in the future and the Texas ROZ will not ride in as the oil cavalry at the last minute.

The Texas ROZ supposedly holds another 100 billion barrels. But let's get real. Residual oil zones (ROZ) form due to various geologic conditions and are located below the oil/water contact of main pay zones.  A ROZ is not shale. It is a depleted conventional reservoir, requiring far more expensive extraction techniques.  CO2 flooding must be used.

The Texas ROZ oil needs $80-$100+/barrel to be viable.  Prices that high are not good times.  Even if the Texas ROZ holds vast reserves, ramp-up will take decades in an environment where the economy can't do better than limp along.

Ten years ago we had fresh shale plays, eager investors, and $100+ oil.  Now we have depleted sweet spots, no easy capital, and volatile prices.  The next 10 years are not going to be years of growth.  They'll be a desperate scramble to run in place.  Then geology is going to win. Shale wells decline 70-90% in three years, and the Permian's best rock is already squeezed out.

Saudi Arabia's spare capacity can crash prices anytime, strangling shale.

The energy transition is a feel good fantasy, and all you have to do is look under the spinning globe on the main page to see the proof that it is a fantasy.  More fossil fuel was burned in 2023 than ever before.  EVs, efficiency, and climate policies are propaganda plays without teeth.  I track CO2 and it rising faster than it ever has.

Cheap oil built modern civilization. When it's gone, everything gets impossibly expensive.  Financial collapse will come before total biosphere or supply collapse. The shale sector is a debt house of cards, and it only needs one idiot to make it fall.  And when it falls it'll take pensions, banks, and jobs, everything, down with it.  And America has plenty of idiots to make it happen.

The U.S. shale miracle was a flash in the pan, not an energy revolution. The next 10 years won't be a repeat of that miracle.  It will be a reckoning with stupidity.  Renewables don't replace fossils.  Renewables actually increase total energy use.

We have no energy transition. We only have energy addition. Our system is increasing fossil fuel use while layering renewables on top.  We have Jevons Paradox in action.  Jevons Paradox can be dealt with.  But it will take a dictatorship of the proletariat to make that happen.  American capitalism has no ability to deal with Jevons Paradox.  None at all.  A system without any ability to regulate itself, and a system in which exploitation is a cornerstone ushers in doom.

Year to year change in CO2 concentration in the air is now at 0.85% per year.  See the green table in the upper right corner on the main page which you can also get to by clicking the globe.

https://chasingthesquirrel.com/ (https://chasingthesquirrel.com/)

That is half again what it was when I started tracking the annual increase.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 01, 2023, 12:37 AM

Quote from: ed_from on Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PMI thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Considering that I once bought gas for 17 cents a gallon in a gas war and getting to and from work now sucks up about an hour of the work shift, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

Indeed. When global peak oil clobbered the world in 2018 it first caused Covid, and then destroyed the ability of average cage owners to drive cheaply to work. Miles driven increased all across America as people sacrificed other things, like a danish on their way to work, went to the movies one less time each month....it was horrible. 

Having paid $0.25/gallon for gasoline in olden times, and then suffered when the 1979 global peak oil hit and the rationing in the US kicked in, in certain states, it is reasonable to ask why the 2018 global peak didn't seem to have near the same effect. I mean...peakers just seem to have vanished from the internet by the time it happened, rather than standing around preening over how accurate their claims had been. Not all the wrong ones of course going back to 1990, but the ones they made for 2018....oh...except I don't think they made any of those. More than anything peak oil seems to coincide with the disappearance of peak peakers more than anyone even noticing increased fuel costs.

Hard to say. Of course, folks who wanted that danish back, or that movie they miss, can just get an EV and pay 1/10th the fuel cost and get back those danish and movie costs, even 7 years after peak oil now.

It seems to me you feel like an ant walking across a pick-nick tablecloth.  You are in the middle of the table, and as far as your two ant-eyes can see the tablecloth goes on forever.  No cliff at the edge to fall from.

America depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.  If America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.

The edge of the table is the Seneca cliff, where everything goes to shit.  By some cherry-picked measures food cost is up over 200% (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97ISWFkPzAg) in three years.  The cliff approaches.

If all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.  Reality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.  And regardless how convoluted the peak is, there is a peak followed by a decline in production.  Where life as we know it falls apart.

By concentrating on the shape of the peak you deny the table has an edge.

* Drill baby drill is showing reduced 'oil' cost on the graph.  Enjoy that while it lasts.  Like a person with a credit card out of control, our nation will reckon with consequences from this short term fix.

Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 17, 2025, 11:54 AMAmerica depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.

My brand new 2025 EV cost 58% of your heat pump. Neither was cheap....but when new vehicles cost less than HEAT PUMPS by that much? Folks don't get to pretend they are unaffordable. Of course, high net worth individuals such as you and I have different perspectives of what is "not cheap" ...or not....compared to those lacking our financial advantage.

Quote from: K-DogIf America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.

Just throw all of this, and oversumption of everything else by gluttonous Americans into one big pile and I agree with you.

Good thing Americans haven't forgotten to build nukes I guess, and SOMEONE sooner or later is going to get the fusion thing going.

Do you know that Catton listed things humans were able to do, to change their fortunes in the past in his book "Overshoot"? In that book, relatively early he has a chart, listing the things humans have done along the way to be more than clever monkeys.

I've got a digital copy, I recommend folks who don't have one get one, and check it out. And then we can discuss what will stop humans from adding another evolution of technological change to that list. Or maybe even two?

Quote from: K-DogIf all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.

I am a technical expert first, so of course being able to solve peak oil was step one. If only to insert that modeling effort into those of others. So that together we both will then understand the situation, it is called collaboration among scientists with common interests and different specialties. We are better together than alone.

So of course I pay attention to the situation, not just my part of it, but theirs as well.

Do you have any idea how much money the Sloan Foundation dishes out to these kinds of multi-disiplianry efforts to answer qustions? A bunch. Ever seen resilience.org talk about the size of their project with them? And if not, why do you think not?

Quote from: K-DogReality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.

Yes. Indeed. So does everyone else who can check the EIA International Energy statistics for global oil production and discover....lookee there! 2018 global peak oil.

Any thoughts on why it has gone so unnoticed for so long? If indeed it is more important than some of the others in the past?

'You won't have to go to Bangladesh to see who suffers."

This Trump will not get out of.  Teflon Trump has done himself in.  Trump in a single heartbeat has enraged the rest of the world.  The cost of being an American is about to double and it was not all that cheap to begin with.  Both domestically and internationally Trump has cooked his own goose.


Trump has always admired Mussolini.  Benito Mussolini and his mistress, Claretta Petacci, were executed by Italian partisans on April 28 in the village of Giulino di Mezzegra.  Their bodies were loaded into a van and driven to Milan, arriving in the early hours of the next morning.  The bodies were dumped in the square where the Nazis had executed 15 partisans a year prior. A massive, angry crowd gathered.  The bodies were kicked, beaten, spat upon, and shot multiple times.  To stop the crowd from completely obliterating the remains and to ensure everyone could see that the Dictator was truly dead, the bodies were hoisted upside down from the girder of a Standard Oil gas station. 

History will repeat. 

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 17, 2026, 11:33 AMYanis Varoufakis says that even if the war in Iran ends soon, which it likely will not , the economic consequences will be devastating and prolonged.

Yanis is BACK! lol.  I wonder if we'll hear from Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini also?

The possibility of Israel going NUKE is definitely  scary.  Actually, I could see Trumpolini himself ordering a Nuke strike.

Far as the economic consequences go, I think it will take until May for that to really kick in here.  It's not gonna get better quick though even if the bombing stops 2moro.

RE

Yanis has never been gone.  On youtube he is a feature.  If Trumpolini orders a nuke strike I hope one of the Marines standing next to him wearing the white gloves grows a brain.

QuoteWhat happens to capitalism when it can't deal with it with a crisis of its own making when the capitalist class lose control.  They pull levers and they don't work anymore, like hapless pilots in  the cockpit.  Suddenly the levers don't respond to their pulling and pushing.  Fascism is the go-to ideology and the go-to, practices which allow them to remain in power. The fascists have always been particularly useful to the ruling class. Every time the ruling class made a mess of it, and could not contain the crisis of its own making.

What you saw in Minneapolis, the murder of uh American citizens, what you saw with ICE, uh turning into the stormtroopers of Donald Trump from the day he moved into the White House for the second time.

That was happening while he was winning.  So imagine what was going to happen when he was losing.

Looks like the real Peak Oil fun is getting underway for all the oil importing countries.  Oil exporters have a bit of an advantage here, but of course everything is so interconnected the problems won't be limited to the importers.  We're on the way back to the Stone Age!

RE

1915 Dardanelles Campaign

In the Dardanelles, the British and French believed they could force the strait with naval power alone. They were stymied by a "layered defense": mines blocked the water, and mobile howitzers on cliffs prevented minesweepers from eliminating mines.

After failing to force the passage, the Allies were forced into an "ignominious" withdrawal in 1916 after suffering 250,000 casualties.








This is Iranian state news.




It is hard for me to find information about what is going on in Iranian Society.  I suspect they are galvanized like Americans were after Pearl Harbor.

Again an empire attacked.  And America has a Hirohito.

From Gibbon :

Quote"The irresolute emperor, instead of breaking through the toils of the enemy, expected his fate with patient resignation; and accepted the humiliating conditions of peace, which it was no longer in his power to refuse.

The five provinces beyond the Tigris... were restored to the Persian monarchy. He acquired, by a single article, the impregnable city of Nisibis; which had sustained, in three successive sieges, the effort of his arms...

The spirit of the Romans was subdued by the edge of famine rather than by the sword of the Barbarians."

QuoteIranian forces strike US military bases across the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain in coordinated missile and drone operations.

And not a SINGLE Amerikan grunt was killed!  They missed everybody!  Amazing!

RE

Chucklehead Trump escalates.  Trump did what BIbi told him to do, and Trump let Bibi bomb gas facilities in Iran.

So Iran responds tit for tat.  No surprise, and Iran's leaders would be fools not to respond in kind.  Trump means them no love and Trump is demented.  If you give Trump anything he only takes more.  Taking more than he should is how this emotional vampire gets his self-esteem.  Trump is toxic and is killing people the way a small child might kill a bug.  To make himself feel big.  Because inside he is a very tiny man.

QuoteIran's Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning to neighboring Gulf nations. Their oil and gas industries would be "completely destroyed" if Israel or the United States conduct any further attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure.

The Sampson Option is why no fool self-serving American president ever was this stupid before.




Trump murders and sacrifices the prosperity and blood of America and you let him.

That is what the Germans did in WWII.

On the positive side, we have moved forward the date where industrial civilization will be no more.

RE

Just remember the Western media is downplaying the success of Iran's attacks on middle-east infrastructure as it goes against the narrative that Iran has been crippled by the barrage of American/Israel airstrikes.

What I also gather is the UAE government is actively suppressing any information on the damage taking place in their country. It is not a stretch to assume other rich Arab states are following the same protocol as they wish to protect their image of being a safe haven country. All this means is it is quite likely the reality on the ground is worse than what the media is portraying as the Western and Arab media have a vested interest in suppressing coverage of Iran's military successes.

The big question is how long this conflict will last and what impact this will have on Trump's presidency.

QuoteIt goes against the narrative that Iran has been crippled by the barrage of American/Israel airstrikes.

Anything that goes against their narrative of total annihilation is an admission of defeat because the 'regime' is still in power and the straight is closed.  Defeat will not be admitted.  Trump always blames someone else.  But since there is nobody else to blame, Trump has to frame what has happened so far as a smoking awesome victory or man up.  Trump manning up to anything is like asking for rain on a sunny day.  And that also goes for anyone bewitched by his greatness.  Doubling down is Trumps only viable survival strategy.  Trump is going to double down our asses into a nuclear winter.

As RE has pointed out.  Multiple airstrikes on bases yesterday, and America loses no soldiers.  It is hard to believe.  Very hard to believe.  Yet there are many true believers.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 19, 2026, 08:19 PMAs RE has pointed out.  Multiple airstrikes on bases yesterday, and America loses no soldiers.  It is hard to believe.  Very hard to believe.  Yet there are many true believers.

It does not surprise me that no casualties besides the dozen or so thhat were reported from the fueling plane crash have been reported by the FSoA military.  What I do find slightly surprising is that nobody in the media has even questioned it.  It's the elephant in the room nobody has noticed.

Also bothering me is the language used when the corpses were returned.  Every time it is mentioned they use the words "dignified transfer".  Have dead grunts ever been returned in an "undignified" manner?  Why is it so important to mention the ceremony was dignified?

The fact NO casualties are being reported lead me to suspect there are quite a few.  Obviously this goes against the narrative we can win these thing with no dead bodies with surgical precision AI directed robots.  You can't keep this covered up forever, and when it does start to leak out the effect will be worse.  If the marines go running up the beach. it will be a fucking disaster.

RE

Not sure this article describes the "Worst Case Scenario", more like just an easily predictable bad one.  Escalation to Global Thermonuclear War is certainly a possibility, and that would definitely be worse.  A 5 year recession would be bad for sure, but a decade long Global Depression would be worse.  Higher food prices would be bad, but a Global Famine with half the worlld population dying of starvation would be just a little worse, don't ya think?

Are any of these LIKELY outcomes right now?  No, but the chances have definittly risen from minute to significant and are worth considering as worst case scenarios.

At this point, I can't see ANY way "normal" pre-war shipping will return inside the next year, and quite possibly never.  That will significantly reduce the flow of oil from the gulf and keep the prices high until the demand crashes, which it must once the consumers are fully tapped out.  Oil production facilities that manage to survive undamaged will have to be shut in.

Somewhere along the timeline there will be a credit crisis as bankruptcies pile up, followed by bank failures.  This kind of thing is bad enough when it is just resultant from malinvestment in one sector like real estate, or a confined area like southern Europe, but when it's global and across all sectors it's a pretty hopeless situation.  Maybe the Smartest Guys in the Room can find a Magic Bazooka, but it will surprise me if they do.

At most, I think we're 6 months away from a financial crisis that will make 2008 pale in comparison.  I could be wrong of course, wouldn't be the first time.  Not looking good though.

RE

Had the plane actually landed the incident would never have made the news.  At all.  The plane crashed, and the Department of War made truth it's first casualty.  As evidenced by unrealistic casualty reports.

Where the 'sunk cost' argument becomes literally true.  5,000 Marines can seize a specific objective, like Kharg Island (approx. 8 sq. miles).  But they will not "hold the door open" across the straight. They will be a landing party that becomes a stationary target once they hit the beach. Marines able to watch retaliatory missiles going into Ras Tanura as they wish upon a star.

On Truth Social today (March 20, 2026), Trump claimed the U.S. is "very close to meeting objectives", and that operation Epstein Fury is nearing completion.  Simultaneously, the Pentagon has accelerated the deployment of the 11th MEU (USS Boxer) to join the 31st MEU (USS Tripoli).  Lies lies and more lies is what Trump delivers.

Quote from: K-DogHad the plane actually landed the incident would never have made the news.  At all.  The plane crashed, and the Department of War made truth it's first casualty.  As evidenced by unrealistic casualty reports.

SO...CNN lies like..say...folks all over the internet? Or we don't believe CNN because the report comes from an official source?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/19/politics/f-35-damage-iran-war

QuoteCapt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command, said the fifth-generation stealth jet was "flying a combat mission over Iran" when it was forced to make an emergency landing. Hawkins said the aircraft landed safely and the incident is under investigation.

"The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition," Hawkins added. "This incident is under investigation."

You figure in a week or two after the initial shock of a single aircraft being hit by Iranian fire....folks won't notice when they reverse themselves?

QuoteOfficial source?

Get real, if the trim on one of those flying bricks isn't perfect they are going down.  But no, there are no 'official sources' that can be respected.  All official sources are now kissing Trump ass.  Or have you not been paying attention.  In today's world mainstream media pays to play, and they all stay in line. 

And seriously, a 12 year old can figure out that you are not going to talk about damage to a plane if you do not have to in a time of war.  In particular nothing is going to be said by this administration which is everything but transparent if they do not have to say anything, and it they do have to talk they will lie.  If the plane landed there was nothing to admit.  No reason to say a damn word.  Probably treasonous to do so if you are wearing a U.S. uniform anyway. 


So back to school with you if you think it landed.  And in a week or two there won't be any reason to 'reverse themselves'.  The lie becomes real. 

Trump is not going to be able to spin this clusterfuck into a triumphant win unless he lies.  Trump's ass depends on convincing your ass that this senseless mayhem is justified.  And because it is not justified by any law of man or god, the only way is to turn his rampant aggression into a glorious unprecedented win.  To make his shit smell like 4th of July bar-b-q to a starving man.






As this war spirals out of control never has Trump had more reason to lie.  And as Trump is incapable of telling the Truth, you do not need a brain or a weatherman to see which way the wind blows.  Unless you have a penchant for tripping over the obvious.


"It became necessary to destroy the town to save it," a United States major said today. (https://aphelis.net/destroy-village-order-save-unknown-1968/)

QuoteThe most acute oxymoron of humanitarian bombardment lies rather in the superimposition that is manifested in it between the declared intention to defend life and to produce actual death.

When this is all over Americans will not get what they deserve.  Iranians are too civilized for that.




Nowruz, what is it?

We should be in the deep doo doo by the elections.  This will not end well.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 21, 2026, 12:02 PM

NEWSTATESMAN.COM • 2026-03-21

The world energy shock is coming

The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe.  The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe

We should be in the deep doo doo by the elections.  This will not end well.

RE

QuoteFossil fuels are by far the most systemically significant inputs in (as yet) predominantly fossil fuel-powered capitalism. Food production depends on fertilisers. Helium and sulphur are necessary for microchips production, in turn needed for everything from lawn mowers to data centres sustaining the AI boom. The passage through the strait of these raw materials – key for making everything else – has been effectively suspended since the beginning of the war.

A very good read 😀

Quote from: RE on Mar 21, 2026, 12:02 PM

NEWSTATESMAN.COM • 2026-03-21

The world energy shock is coming

The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe.  The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe

We should be in the deep doo doo by the elections.  This will not end well.

RE

How many of your "this will not end well" have not even arrived? Do you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 20, 2026, 07:17 PM

QuoteOfficial source?

Get real, if the trim on one of those flying bricks isn't perfect they are going down.  But no, there are no 'official sources' that can be respected.  All official sources are now kissing Trump ass.  Or have you not been paying attention.  In today's world mainstream media pays to play, and they all stay in line.

Oh come on. You tried this same logic when BigBalls got beaten up in Wahsington, and when I calculated out the odds of the cameras catching it, or not, it turned out that spurious wasn't coming from the online sources in this case but from your argument of everything could be seen everywhere in DC.

Quote from: K-DogAnd seriously, a 12 year old can figure out that you are not going to talk about damage to a plane if you do not have to in a time of war.

You mean, except for this plane in question, and the tanker that went down while refueling others? Everyone talking about both of these is the proof that neither happened?

A 12 year old isn't even SMART enough to play this level of make believe, who are you going to trust, me making it up or someone willing to admit it because they know it happened?

Did it get hit?

On top of his personal hard-on, Trump was dog walked into this mess.  The problem for the rest of the world is that this is no pleasant walking of a dog in a park.

No worries, Phillipinos are like Cubans, they're used to living in squalor.  Indians too.  We don't have anything to worry about here in the FSoA of course,we are exceptional!  Those shithole countries are overcrowded anyhow.  Think of the great Investment Opportunities when half the population of Indonesia starves!  You'll be able to buy a Private Island for pennies!

Eat, drink & be merry.  You're safe under the guidance and protection of the Chosen One, Saint Donald. Buy War Bonds!

RE