hopefully he will time his exit right. He was in the Austin area was he not? He kept wanting to sell off at some point. Hopefully he will turn towards his stead.
Title: What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: RE on Jul 25, 2023, 06:37 AM
Still in Austin last time we spoke,maybe a year ago or so I think. Still pulling teeth and raking in the rents as a slumlord. lol. Seriously, his rental houses are what used to be lower middle class type, today however in that market I'm sure the rents are a small fortune. Every time I talk to him I ask him when he will sell out, but he always has some investment scheme brewing to make him richer than he already is, and he doesn't want to quit drilling molars and capping bicuspids. He still has the doomstead, but he's much less of a doomer than he was. I think he's pretty convinced the status quo will last his lifetime these days. Bottom line, at this point I don't see him leaving TX at all, and not sure how the water situation will hold up on his doomstead. It was doing well last year for the first time in several years, but this year doesn't sound too good. Anyhow, we found less and less to talk about each time we spoke, so I pretty much gave up on reaching out to him.
RE
Title: What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: K-Dog on Jul 26, 2023, 01:02 PM
It is clear that future extremes will again break records and cause even greater damage. In particular, this is because the damage in many cases is nonlinear. It rises more and more quickly for each increment of climate change. This should cause concern. It rationally should cause us to step back and assess what is in our economic, social and environmental interests.
Title: What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: K-Dog on Aug 09, 2023, 11:27 PM
I have been watching the curve for several years. Because of the seasonal variation it only makes sense to compare dates from the same time of year. For this reason I publish a comparison to what the CO2 level is for the current month (actually last month) against the matching month one year ago at:
July 2023 422.14 ppm July 2022 418.85 ppm Annual change: +0.79%
Last updated: Aug 5, 2023 Source: Global Monitoring Laboratory
The important thing is what the automatic percentage calculation yields. Last month showed an annual increase that is huge.
Annual change: +0.79%
Kinda close to a one percent increase in only 1 year. Doom is served. Green plants are not sucking CO2 as hard as they were last year. Could it be because it is getting too warm for verdant growth? I hope not!
The problem is CO2 concentration limits plant growth. More CO2 means more plant growth, because there is ample sunlight to support faster growth. CO2 is the normal limit. Water is also needed for verdant plant growth. Higher temps could dry plants out.
Higher summer temps could also raise plant metabolism causing plants to respire and release CO2 trapped earlier in the day.
The highest year to year variation I have seen is from last months' data. This is not good.
Title: What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: RE on Aug 10, 2023, 07:40 AM
Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 09, 2023, 11:27 PMThe problem is CO2 concentration limits plant growth. More CO2 means more plant growth, because there is ample sunlight to support faster growth. CO2 is the normal limit. Water is also needed for verdant plant growth. Higher temps could dry plants out.
Higher summer temps could also raise plant metabolism causing plants to respire and release CO2 trapped earlier in the day.
I think an even larger factor is the increasing Ocean Surface Temperature. Ocean covers 75% of the earth surface, and phytoplankton contribute more oxygen to the atmosphere than land plants do. I do not know however how warmer temps affect the oxygen production of phytoplankton. On the one hand, it might increase their metabolic rate producing more; on the other if the temp is too hot it might be killing them off, thus reducing production.
Title: What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: K-Dog on Aug 10, 2023, 11:10 AM
I did some Googling and found that the oceans produce about half of the Oxygen the Earth produces, and that ocean critters use it up. So under normal conditions the Ocean O2 contribution cancels out. But if things get unbalanced the Keeling curve might go bonkers.
The global ocean hit a new record temperature of 21.1 ºC in early April, 0.1 ºC higher than the last record in March 2016.
Light from the sun is essentially constant. Warm plants consume more oxygen than cooler plants do. Less surplus oxygen is released in warm conditions because of increased metabolism. Oxygen production is temperature independent. Photon capture happens at a fixed rate.
Title: What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: K-Dog on Aug 10, 2023, 12:38 PM
"The worst fire season in Canada – in 2021 – is estimated to have caused direct emissions of 290 million tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent. This is about 43% of the emissions from all other sectors in Canada – only – in 2021."
This year is three times as bad. The fires could be slamming the annual Keeling variation enough for me to have noticed. Mystery solved. News articles are big on pointing out that the contribution of wildfires is far less than CO2 generated by humans. That amounts to a distortion of facts. Humans bad, nature good. That story.
The wildfire CO2 is not coming out of the atmosphere any faster than the CO2 that people put there. Bad news.
The fires are another brick in the wall.
I expect the step to almost 0.8% annual variation to persist until a year has passed. Then it will fall back to the human generated rate of 0.6% or so.
Title: Death toll from Maui wildfire reaches 89, making it the deadliest in the US in m
Post by: RE on Aug 12, 2023, 10:02 PM
Death toll from Maui wildfire reaches 89, making it the deadliest in the US in more than 100 years
RE
Title: World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit
Post by: RE on Feb 08, 2024, 01:08 PM
Started this thread with the hottest day ever recorded, now we have the hottest year. A full 12 months surpassing the 1.5C degree mark. How long until we make it to 2C?
World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit
RE
Title: - What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: monsta666 on Feb 08, 2024, 01:33 PM
Quote from: RE on Feb 08, 2024, 01:08 PMStarted this thread with the hottest day ever recorded, now we have the hottest year. A full 12 months surpassing the 1.5C degree mark. How long until we make it to 2C?
According to NASA (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/) figures the world first exceeded 1C of the pre-industrial mean in 2016. If the current rate of increase were to occur then we can expect 2032 to be the year we go over the 2C threshold. What would Greta Thunberg think of this?
Title: - What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: K-Dog on Feb 08, 2024, 01:36 PM
This is not a hard question. The Berkeley Earth project, which conducts independent analyses of global temperature data, estimates that global warming surpassed 1 degree Celsius ain 2017.
This is 2024 and the current level was not supposed to happen until 2030 according to the IPCC. That was then, this is now and 2030 no longer has meaning so:
(2024 - 2017) * 0.85 = 6 years !
The 0.85 fudge factor I get to use because I have been watching the CO2 levels accelerate. The blip down from COVID is 'ovah'. Further I took a look at the CH4 concentration yesterday.
The Permian Basin Play is putting out methane like there is no tomorrow!
Title: - What's Cooking? Hottest Day Ever Recorded
Post by: K-Dog on Feb 08, 2024, 01:37 PM
There you go RE, I say 2030 and Monsta says 2032.
At that time it is reasonable to expect the Climate Fuckification Index to be twice what it is now. With all the bugs gone it will be pegged in the red.
What's cooking? People! It's what's for Dinner! lol. Slow cooked while sitting in traffic on the way back from work after spending all day at the office when the HVAC went out. Tender and juicy Rack of Homo Sap and Long Pig Ribs. Fortunately here on the Last Great Frontier, we're still in the 70s the last cupla days of cloudless sunshine.
Acclimatized as I am to cold though, even 75 feels uncomfortable, but at least when I run my fan it's enough to stay cool. Down in the lower 48, turn the fan on with a 100+F day, and basically you turn your living room into a convection oven or air fryer.
You can add to pandemics and famine Heat Stroke as one of the Death Vectors that will help cull the population as we run short on Juice to keep the AC compressors going full tilt. This will hit Old folks and kids the hardest because your sweat glands don't fully develop until puberty and they are among the first endocrine glands to start failing as you age. Also poor people obviously since they are least likely to have AC.
On the positive side, we can save gas and electricity by switching to solar ovens. :) :)
Title: Closing in on 1% a year. There has been significant acceleration.
Post by: K-Dog on Feb 10, 2025, 01:59 PM
Atmospheric CO2
January 2025 426.56 ppm January 2024 422.80 ppm
Annual change: +0.89% <---------------
Last updated: Feb 07, 2025 Source: Global Monitoring Laboratory
* Closing in on 1% a year. There has been significant acceleration since I began annual tracking of the increase.
Title: Thermogeddon
Post by: K-Dog on Jun 18, 2025, 03:28 PM
The Threat of Humid Heat Waves in a Warming Climate
Heat waves are among the deadliest natural disasters. Historically, the most lethal have been dry heat events.
However, as global temperatures rise due to climate change, a potentially even more dangerous form of heat is becoming increasingly prevalent. Extreme humid heat.
Unlike dry heat, which can be mitigated by shade, breezes, and hydration, humid heat poses a far greater risk to human survival.
When high temperatures combine with oppressive humidity, the humidity hinders the body's ability to cool itself by evaporating sweat.
As climate change progresses, lethal wet-bulb events are expected to become frequent. Particularly in densely populated regions.
Dry Heat vs. Humid Heat
Dry heat waves are driven by large high-pressure systems which trap hot air near the Earth's surface.
When these high-pressure systems remain stationary, heat accumulates over days or weeks without relief from cloud or wind. The 2003 European heat wave, and the 2021 Pacific Northwest "heat dome," both of which resulted in numerous deaths are examples.
Humid heat waves happen when the atmosphere holds more moisture. Regions with accessible moisture such as coastal areas are at risk
A devastating example if this kind of heat event happened in 2015 in Karachi, Pakistan Temperatures reached 45°C (113°F) humidity was extreme. Power outages and water shortages amplified the human misery. Over 1,200 people died in just ten days, from heatstroke and dehydration.
The Danger of Wet-Bulb Temperatures (WBT)
Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) measures heat stress by combining temperature and humidity into a single value.
The concept derives from a simple experiment. A thermometer wrapped in a wet cloth cools through evaporation. The more humid the air, the slower the evaporation, as cooling efficiency decreases. This reduction is recorded on a thermometer which indicates when conditions become dangerous or deadly by showing the temperature measured at maximum evaporation.
Human Physiological Limits
The human body regulates core temperature through evaporating sweat. But, when WBT exceeds a critical threshold, sweat can't evaporate. Dangerous increases in core body temperature result.
Heat stress occurs when the human body can no longer effectively cool itself through sweating and evaporation. The condition can become life-threatening, even for healthy individuals.
The compensable level refers to the maximum wet-bulb temperature (WBT) at which the human body can still regulate its core temperature through sweat evaporation. Once this threshold is crossed, the body enters uncompensable heat stress, leading to dangerous and potentially fatal overheating.
Wet bulb temperature
Wet bulb temperature (WBT) is a critical measure which combines air temperature and humidity into a single reading that reflects the body's ability to cool itself. It's not the same as regular air temperature. Instead, it represents the lowest temperature to which skin can be cooled by evaporating sweat under current conditions.
A WBT reading of 19°C may sound mild, but temperature producing it can vary drastically depending on humidity.
At low humidity, a WBT of 19°C could correspond to an air temperature of 46°C (115°F). At high humidity,a WBT of 19°C could correspond to an air temperature of 32°C (90°F).
At a WBT of 32°C, even fit, healthy people in the shade with water and rest can die within a few hours. A WBT of 32°C are lethal conditions.
Current climate projections demonstrate that the Earth may reach 2°C above pre-industrial temperature levels within 20years. At this temperature 35% of Earth's land area will experience dangerous WBTs. Highly populated regions, most of India, eastern China, and also the eastern U.S., will face frequent and lethal heat waves.
At 4°C of Warming
Over 60% of Earth's landmass could experience deadly WBTs. Events like Karachi's 2015 heat wave will become 90% longer in duration.
The Limits of Air Conditioning as a Solution
While air conditioning (AC) is the primary defense against extreme heat, it presents several challenges:
Heat waves strain power grids, increasing blackout risks. A hurricane or cyclone knocking out power during a heat wave could be catastrophic.
Urban Heat Islands
AC units expel heat outdoors, increasing city temperatures.
Carbon Emissions
AC accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions now and the contribution will rise.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
A PBS video without hopium is impossible. Hopium follows.
To address these challenges, a multi-pronged approach is necessary:
Transition to Renewable Energy
Powering AC with clean energy reduces emissions. <-- what does this video know of Jevons Paradox, not so much.
Urban Design Improvements
White/green roofs, tree planting, and reflective pavements reduce heat absorption. Cooling centers can provide refuge during outages.
Grid Resilience
Modernizing infrastructure prevents overloads.
Protecting Vulnerable Populations
Elderly, low-income, and outdoor workers require targeted interventions.
Conclusion
As climate change progresses, extreme humid heat will pose an unprecedented threat to human survival. Air conditioning offers temporary relief, reliance on it is unsustainable. A rapid transition to renewable energy, coupled with smarter urban planning and grid resilience, is essential to mitigate the worst impacts. The coming decades will test humanity's ability to adapt. But proactive measures today can still determine how severe the consequences will be. The time to act is now.