Doomstead

Thermogeddon.

Or why the global south will be moving north.

Just take up smoking.  Then when you breathe the air by itself, it seems clean.  :)

RE

How many times will we break the Global Heat Record this summer?

Hottest Day Ever Recorded

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqmv-gXS808

I"ll bet Lucky 13.  ;D   Closest guess wins a bag of ice and a bottle of Tequila.

RE

Looks like Eddie's burner is on high.

https://247wallst.com/economy/2023/07/22/flee-texas-as-soon-as-possible/

Flee Texas As Soon As Possible

RE

Quote from: RE on Jul 23, 2023, 09:32 AMLooks like Eddie's burner is on high.

https://247wallst.com/economy/2023/07/22/flee-texas-as-soon-as-possible/

Flee Texas As Soon As Possible

RE

hopefully he will time his exit right. He was in the Austin area was he not? He kept wanting to sell off at some point. Hopefully he will turn towards his stead.

Still in Austin last time we spoke,maybe a year ago or so I think.  Still pulling teeth and raking in the rents as a slumlord. lol.  Seriously, his rental houses are what used to be lower middle class type, today however in that market I'm sure the rents are a small fortune.  Every time I talk  to him I ask him when he will sell out, but he always has some investment scheme brewing to make him richer than he already is, and he doesn't want to quit drilling molars and capping bicuspids.  He still has the doomstead, but he's much less of a doomer than he was.  I think he's pretty convinced the status quo will last his lifetime these days.  Bottom line, at this point I don't see him leaving TX at all, and not sure how the water situation will hold up on his doomstead.  It was doing well last year for the first time in several years, but this year doesn't sound too good.  Anyhow, we found less and less to talk about each time we spoke, so I pretty much gave up on reaching out to him.

RE

I have been watching the curve for several years.  Because of the seasonal variation it only makes sense to compare dates from the same time of year.  For this reason I publish a comparison to what the CO2 level is for the current month (actually last month) against the matching month one year ago at:

KDog's excellent adventure (https://chasingthesquirrel.com/).

Today I published July:

Atmospheric CO2

July 2023      422.14 ppm
July 2022      418.85 ppm
Annual change:      +0.79%

Last updated: Aug 5, 2023
Source:
Global Monitoring Laboratory

The important thing is what the automatic percentage calculation yields.  Last month showed an annual increase that is huge.

Annual change:      +0.79%

Kinda close to a one percent increase in only 1 year.  Doom is served.  Green plants are not sucking CO2 as hard as they were last year.  Could it be because it is getting too warm for verdant growth?  I hope not!

The problem is CO2 concentration limits plant growth.  More CO2 means more plant growth, because there is ample sunlight to support faster growth.  CO2 is the normal limit.  Water is also needed for verdant plant growth.  Higher temps could dry plants out.

Higher summer temps could also raise plant metabolism causing plants to respire and release CO2 trapped earlier in the day.

The highest year to year variation I have seen is from last months' data.  This is not good.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 09, 2023, 11:27 PMThe problem is CO2 concentration limits plant growth.  More CO2 means more plant growth, because there is ample sunlight to support faster growth.  CO2 is the normal limit.  Water is also needed for verdant plant growth.  Higher temps could dry plants out.

Higher summer temps could also raise plant metabolism causing plants to respire and release CO2 trapped earlier in the day.

I think an even larger factor is the increasing Ocean Surface Temperature.  Ocean covers 75% of the earth surface, and phytoplankton contribute more oxygen to the atmosphere than land plants do.  I do not know however how warmer temps affect the oxygen production of phytoplankton.  On the one hand, it might increase their metabolic rate producing more; on the other if the temp is too hot it might be killing them off, thus reducing production.

(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/19418.jpeg)

RE

I did some Googling and found that the oceans produce about half of the Oxygen the Earth produces, and that ocean critters use it up.  So under normal conditions the Ocean O2 contribution cancels out.  But if things get unbalanced the Keeling curve might go bonkers.

The global ocean hit a new record temperature of 21.1 ºC in early April, 0.1 ºC higher than the last record in March 2016.

Light from the sun is essentially constant.  Warm plants consume more oxygen than cooler plants do.  Less surplus oxygen is released in warm conditions because of increased metabolism.  Oxygen production is temperature independent.  Photon capture happens at a fixed rate.

"The worst fire season in Canada – in 2021 – is estimated to have caused direct emissions of 290 million tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent. This is about 43% of the emissions from all other sectors in Canada – only – in 2021."

This year is three times as bad.  The fires could be slamming the annual Keeling variation enough for me to have noticed.  Mystery solved.  News articles are big on pointing out that the contribution of wildfires is far less than CO2 generated by humans.  That amounts to a distortion of facts.  Humans bad, nature good.  That story. 

The wildfire CO2 is not coming out of the atmosphere any faster than the CO2 that people put there.  Bad news.

The fires are another brick in the wall.

I expect the step to almost 0.8% annual variation to persist until a year has passed.  Then it will fall back to the human generated rate of 0.6% or so.

Cross Hawaii off your list of Bugout Locations.

https://apnews.com/article/maui-hawaii-fires-lahaina-destruction-evacuation-38ec0d6a5c610035a0a72b804fcdffe0

Death toll from Maui wildfire reaches 89, making it the deadliest in the US in more than 100 years

RE

Started this thread with the hottest day ever recorded, now we have the hottest year.  A full 12 months surpassing the 1.5C degree mark.  How long until we make it to 2C?

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/148A/production/_132585250_era5_ma365days-nc.png.webp)

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310

World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 08, 2024, 01:08 PMStarted this thread with the hottest day ever recorded, now we have the hottest year.  A full 12 months surpassing the 1.5C degree mark.  How long until we make it to 2C?

According to NASA (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/) figures the world first exceeded 1C of the pre-industrial mean in 2016. If the current rate of increase were to occur then we can expect 2032 to be the year we go over the 2C threshold. What would Greta Thunberg think of this?

This is not a hard question.  The Berkeley Earth project, which conducts independent analyses of global temperature data, estimates that global warming surpassed 1 degree Celsius ain 2017.

This is 2024 and the current level was not supposed to happen until 2030 according to the IPCC.  That was then, this is now and 2030 no longer has meaning so:

(2024 - 2017) * 0.85 = 6 years !

The 0.85 fudge factor I get to use because I have been watching the CO2 levels accelerate.  The blip down from COVID is 'ovah'. Further I took a look at the CH4 concentration yesterday.

The Permian Basin Play is putting out methane like there is no tomorrow!

There you go RE,  I say 2030 and Monsta says 2032.

At that time it is reasonable to expect the Climate Fuckification Index to be twice what it is now.  With all the bugs gone it will be pegged in the red.

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ourpcb.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2021%2F12%2F1-37.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=06f6842ef75023e65003934162dcae5c2154a2cfd00c1077acb305a332ecbbad&ipo=images)

Smack on 2.  And too far in the red, Zed is Dead.

What's cooking?  People!  It's what's for Dinner! lol.  Slow cooked while sitting in traffic on the way back from work after spending all day at the office when the HVAC went out.  Tender and juicy Rack of Homo Sap and Long Pig Ribs.  Fortunately here on the Last Great Frontier, we're still in the 70s the last cupla days of cloudless sunshine.

Acclimatized as I am to cold though, even 75 feels uncomfortable, but at least when I run my fan it's enough to stay cool.  Down in the lower 48, turn the fan on with a 100+F day, and basically you turn your living room into a convection oven or air fryer.

You can add to pandemics and famine Heat Stroke as one of the Death Vectors that will help cull the population as we run short on Juice to keep the AC compressors going full tilt.  This will hit Old folks and kids the hardest because your sweat glands don't fully develop until puberty and they are among the first endocrine glands to start failing as you age.  Also poor people obviously since they are least likely to have AC.

On the positive side, we can save gas and electricity by switching to solar ovens.  :)  :)

https://www.thenation.com/article/environment/air-conditioning-climate-change-emissions/

RE

Atmospheric CO2

January 2025      426.56 ppm
January 2024      422.80 ppm

Annual change:      +0.89%    <---------------

Last updated: Feb 07, 2025
Source: Global Monitoring Laboratory

* Closing in on 1% a year.  There has been significant acceleration since I began annual tracking of the increase.

The Threat of Humid Heat Waves in a Warming Climate

Heat waves are among the deadliest natural disasters.  Historically, the most lethal have been dry heat events.

However, as global temperatures rise due to climate change, a potentially even more dangerous form of heat is becoming increasingly prevalent.  Extreme humid heat.

Unlike dry heat, which can be mitigated by shade, breezes, and hydration, humid heat poses a far greater risk to human survival.

When high temperatures combine with oppressive humidity, the humidity hinders the body's ability to cool itself by evaporating sweat.

As climate change progresses, lethal wet-bulb events are expected to become frequent.  Particularly in densely populated regions.

Dry Heat vs. Humid Heat

Dry heat waves are driven by large high-pressure systems which trap hot air near the Earth's surface.

When these high-pressure systems remain stationary, heat accumulates over days or weeks without relief from cloud or wind. The 2003 European heat wave, and the 2021 Pacific Northwest "heat dome," both of which resulted in numerous deaths are examples.

Humid heat waves happen when the atmosphere holds more moisture. Regions with accessible moisture such as coastal areas are at risk

A devastating example if this kind of heat event happened in 2015 in Karachi, Pakistan  Temperatures reached 45°C (113°F) humidity was extreme.  Power outages and water shortages amplified the human misery. Over 1,200 people died in just ten days, from heatstroke and dehydration.

The Danger of Wet-Bulb Temperatures  (WBT)

Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) measures heat stress by combining temperature and humidity into a single value.

The concept derives from a simple experiment.  A thermometer wrapped in a wet cloth cools through evaporation. The more humid the air, the slower the evaporation, as cooling efficiency decreases.  This reduction is recorded on a thermometer which indicates when conditions become dangerous or deadly by showing the temperature measured at maximum evaporation.

Human Physiological Limits

The human body regulates core temperature through evaporating sweat. But, when WBT exceeds a critical threshold, sweat can't evaporate.  Dangerous increases in core body temperature result.

Heat stress occurs when the human body can no longer effectively cool itself through sweating and evaporation. The condition can become life-threatening, even for healthy individuals.

The compensable level refers to the maximum wet-bulb temperature (WBT) at which the human body can still regulate its core temperature through sweat evaporation. Once this threshold is crossed, the body enters uncompensable heat stress, leading to dangerous and potentially fatal overheating.

Wet bulb temperature

Wet bulb temperature (WBT) is a critical measure which combines air temperature and humidity into a single reading that reflects the body's ability to cool itself. It's not the same as regular air temperature.  Instead, it represents the lowest temperature to which skin can be cooled by evaporating sweat under current conditions.

A WBT reading of 19°C may sound mild, but temperature producing it can vary drastically depending on humidity.

    At low humidity, a WBT of 19°C could correspond to an air temperature of 46°C (115°F).
    At high humidity,a WBT of 19°C could correspond to an air temperature of 32°C (90°F).

At a WBT of 32°C, even fit, healthy people in the shade with water and rest can die within a few hours.  A WBT of 32°C are lethal conditions.

Current climate projections demonstrate that the Earth may reach 2°C above pre-industrial temperature levels within 20years.  At this temperature 35% of Earth's land area will experience dangerous WBTs. 
Highly populated regions, most of India, eastern China, and also the eastern U.S., will face frequent and lethal heat waves.

At 4°C of Warming

    Over 60% of Earth's landmass could experience deadly WBTs.
    Events like Karachi's 2015 heat wave will become 90% longer in duration.

The Limits of Air Conditioning as a Solution

While air conditioning (AC) is the primary defense against extreme heat, it presents several challenges:

Heat waves strain power grids, increasing blackout risks.  A hurricane or cyclone knocking out power during a heat wave could be catastrophic.

Urban Heat Islands

AC units expel heat outdoors, increasing city temperatures.

Carbon Emissions

AC accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions now and the contribution will rise.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

A PBS video without hopium is impossible.  Hopium follows.

To address these challenges, a multi-pronged approach is necessary:

Transition to Renewable Energy

Powering AC with clean energy reduces emissions.  <-- what does this video know of Jevons Paradox, not so much.

Urban Design Improvements

White/green roofs, tree planting, and reflective pavements reduce heat absorption.
Cooling centers can provide refuge during outages.

Grid Resilience

Modernizing infrastructure prevents overloads.

Protecting Vulnerable Populations

Elderly, low-income, and outdoor workers require targeted interventions.

Conclusion

As climate change progresses, extreme humid heat will pose an unprecedented threat to human survival. Air conditioning offers temporary relief, reliance on it is unsustainable. A rapid transition to renewable energy, coupled with smarter urban planning and grid resilience, is essential to mitigate the worst impacts. The coming decades will test humanity's ability to adapt.  But proactive measures today can still determine how severe the consequences will be. The time to act is now.

The Eurotrash are cooking!  And it's not even the hottest part of Summer yet!  Maybe they can relocate Europe to Greenland.

RE

No problemo.  We have HVAC and Ice Makers.  Oh wait... they work on electricity. 😬


RE

No worries, AI will solve all the Climate Change problems.

RE

New Motto: Land of the Burning Sun. 😎

I actually like this term.  Much more pithy than "Hotter than Hell" or "It's like an Oven out there".

Wondering how the various Kokushobis are playing out with the Rice crop this year, combined with the fertilizer shortages?  What will the harvest be like this year?

Tik Tok, tik toc...

RE

This is new.  I've never heard of wildfires forcing evacuations of this magnitude in Europe before.  The climate change is really taking off.  Canada, Alaska, California old newzz, but Spain & Italy?

RE

Lovely weather here in Alaska though. 😎

RE

So much for Nukes being the solution for replacing Fossil Fuels.  Can't run the reactors if you don't have the water to cool them and to spin the turbines.  Still more blackouts coming in still more countries.  We've officially arrived at the point on Richard Duncan's Olduvai Graph he theorized we would hit in ~2006.

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQWtVH6Rq6nr_o4Fr2JJUaSHX6N-b8vhhGSGwsCVUBLyZG80F97X7mf6QbK&s=10)

His timeline appears to be about 20 years early.  Of course, in 1989 he didn't know about unconventional Oil so it's an understandable error.  If you figure his slope is approximately correct, we would bottom out on electric power around 2050.  That doesn't mean Zero electricity everywhere, and chances are the FSoA is one of the last places to go dark, but Global Warfare will tend to level things out.  Doubtful FSoA manufacturers can produce enough Patriots to shoot down all the missiles and drones flying around.

On the positive side, I may live long enough to see more of my predictions come true.😀

RE

Quotehe didn't know about unconventional Oil

Which masked the reality that peak oil is correct.  The observation (it was never a theory) that it is nonsense only became nonsense after the goal-posts were moved.

Quote from: K-DogWhich masked the reality that peak oil is correct. 

So, one of the best geoscientists of the 20th century, who when he predicted US peak oil in 1950...got it wrong, and came back with another call in 1970...and got that one wrong because he didn't know about "unconventional oil"? Those rocks that in 1821 were producing natural gas from shale, and by 1880 those rocks were producing oil all around the Mid-Ohio valley? 76 years later this best geologist.....hadn't read up on the history of shale oil production? This same geologist, who in 1956, wrote ANOTHER seminal paper on...wait for it.....the first 100,000 frack jobs done in the US by that year since 1949 when it became commericial? That work on the rock mechanics of the process is still a taught paper in the schools that matter. Hard to claim a man didn't know something when he was happily publishing on it during the entire timespan.

I've previously explained why all this OLD and KNOWN oil came to be called "unconventional". And it has nothing to do with what Hubbert did or didn't miss, only that folks never read the late 1980's papers by the USGS focused on the geology of basin centered gas accumulations and what that meant. So 10+ years after he was out of the USGS his coworkers (I've talked to his last boss he worked for at the USGS) dee-mystified all of this geology, and 20 years later when the peakers were declaring doom none of them apparently had ever bothered to put these easy to find pieces together and know what was coming. Them, not knowing any geology, just made up the mysterious "unconventional" as an excuse for not having the ability to read the published science.

Some of us weren't fooled of course. Made a mint off of being right, and amusingly enough, all it took was knowing some history of oil and gas development.

Quote from: K-DogThe observation (it was never a theory) that it is nonsense only became nonsense after the goal-posts were moved.[/color]

The goal posts never existed, Hubbert just guessed at a 1950 US peak first, then another in 1970. His 1956 WAG for 1970 was much better documented than his 1938 wag of US peak in 1950.

We've been over this about "conventional" and "unconventional" being invented and whatnot. But a geoscientist that good doesn't need amateurs trying to cover up for him by pretending he was right to somehow save his reputation. Obviously he already had been wrong with his 1950 US peak oil claim, he was just more thoroughly documented on his 1970 call because it happened....until it didn't.

The precise date on which the availability of economically profitable oil extraction and consumption makes further growth impossible isn't important in the long term.  What is important is that when it does arrive, the effects lead to all the outcomes predicted, and which are currently well underway.  Wars to control the remaining resource, political instability and polarization and irredeemable debt overhang are enveloping all the developed countries in Europe and the resource and labor countries in S America, Africa, MENA and SE Asia.  The big engine of China-FSoA Production & Consumption is running on fumes.  Climate related disasters pop up on a weekly basis.

Later than expected, but here nonetheless.


RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 05, 2026, 03:19 PMThe precise date on which the availability of economically profitable oil extraction and consumption makes further growth impossible isn't important in the long term.

Says you. Every website I've been on, some of which you were on, most certainly disagreed with your current opinion. If in fact it was only a current one.

Quote from: REWhat is important is that when it does arrive, the effects lead to all the outcomes predicted, and which are currently well underway.

So, when global peak oil happened in 1979, and lasted 15 years or so, why didn't those outcomes manifest themselves then? Or after any of the other peaks oils, such as the 2018 one? That lasted 7 years, and was only dispatched in 2025. And no...there are no MZBs, building homemade claymores isn't a thing, and as anyone who buys a tanker of liquid fuels at a time can tell you....they certainly STILL buy such a load.

Maybe your interpretation of what was supposed to have happened is what you are referring to? Because the vast majority of folks claiming peak oil effects DIDN'T proclaim random, run of the mill idiot political repercussions is just that.

You yourself over on peakoil.com were describing your after peak oil lifestyle, and the friends you would hsve defending the last frontier as La Longue Carabine in the lead. Well...did you live that lifestyle between 2018 and 2024, all of those post peak years?

Quote from: REWars to control the remaining resource, political instability and polarization and irredeemable debt overhang are enveloping all the developed countries in Europe and the resource and labor countries in S America, Africa, MENA and SE Asia.  The big engine of China-FSoA Production & Consumption is running on fumes.  Climate related disasters pop up on a weekly basis.

This list was ALSO claimed as happening way back when, DURING all the claimed peak oils. Don't you think rather than just repeating something that has, apparently, been happening for at least 25 years according to internet pundits, you could pick a few more specifics that aren't the usual claimed events? Wars to control remaining resource? You seen anyone attacking the US as the world's largest producer of oil and gas? Attacking Canada for their timber? Irredeemable debt has been around since Matt Savinar pitched the idea of the AMERO.

Quote from: RELater than expected, but here nonetheless.
RE

Later than expected meaning..."gee we sure screwed the pooch all those other times, lets hope this time is the one!". Well...Ruppert pitched the same thing in the last century, and when he died all that had collapsed over those decades was him.

You sure you aren't in the same boat? You've been seeing doom since early this century....and there it is...always over the horizon. The world is so horrible....yet it still can take care of those who lack the ability to care for themselves. No one is appropriating K-Dogs nice house for sleeping quarters for the new Gestapo, or kicking you into the street. Your internet still working? Of course. Food deliveries on time? Most likely. Do you lack fresh water? Doubt it.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 05, 2026, 06:01 PMYou sure you aren't in the same boat? You've been seeing doom since early this century....and there it is...always over the horizon.

Not over the horizon.  It's plenty Doomy enough right now.

RE

Another day, another drought.

RE

Add the drought to the shortage of fertilizer.

RE

Forget "Global Warming".  Rebrand it "Global Cooking".

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 05, 2026, 06:31 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 05, 2026, 06:01 PMYou sure you aren't in the same boat? You've been seeing doom since early this century....and there it is...always over the horizon.

Not over the horizon.  It's plenty Doomy enough right now.

RE

Well...sure....as long as you keep to...normal stuff. Economic malaise...doom in jimmy carter.....the great recession....doom under trump....the 2008 market crash....doom under Bush AND peak oil that year...and so on and so forth. Plenty Doomy. But just economic ups and downs.

I know you get this, but it is terribly interesting that you even want to defend the idea with current events. It doesn't even come near any reasonable definition of what a REAL collapse that has been claimed on the internet, let alone my list, during which you and many others were certainly winding up to the BIG FINALE OF DOOM when all that happened was a yawner.

So why the willingness to proclaim anything related to the normal ups and downcurrent events as doom? It cheapens the entire seriousness of the topic among the still serious and preparing. Just an urge to finally see ANYTHING resembling your written  history on the subject before moving off this mortal coil?

After reviewing the 4 other posts all detailing current events, regarldess of quality of doomyness....I only have one question as it relates to REAL DOOM.

What is the expected population decrease this year from all the dooms you can round up in the news so far this year? A 1% drop? 5%? Come on....doom as malaise and recessions is all fine and dandy for pretenders, but the two of you KNOW better than to think anyone who is a quant and has already listed definitions including a population drop involved necessary to even get the ball rolling...as opposed to just posting bad news (has there ever been a year that DIDN'T have bad news?).

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 06, 2026, 04:02 PMAfter reviewing the 4 other posts all detailing current events, regarldess of quality of doomyness....I only have one question as it relates to REAL DOOM.

What is the expected population decrease this year from all the dooms you can round up in the news so far this year? A 1% drop? 5%? Come on....doom as malaise and recessions is all fine and dandy for pretenders, but the two of you KNOW better than to think anyone who is a quant and has already listed definitions including a population drop involved necessary to even get the ball rolling...as opposed to just posting bad news (has there ever been a year that DIDN'T have bad news?).

1 to 5 % is reasonable.  I'll have a firm opinion after the harvest comes in.  But no matter about that because you are like Elon, you will ignore anything that does not fit your narrative.  Just like this disgusting example of a current event.





Some poor guy maybe would like to retire but as Republicans have trashed the economy he  can't.  He is stuck doing the Wall-Mart greeter thing.  Then he drops dead.  You would say it is all his fault because his 75 year old dumb ass did not have enough money to take care of himself.  But he would have.......

He never gets counted.  Regardless of the actual chain of events he measures only as a statistic.  Setting a one to 1% to 5% population decrease figure as a quantitative threshold to separate systemic collapse from garden-variety bad news is totally unreasonable.  And heartless as fuck.  The human cost happens entirely off the books, long before any 1% to 5% threshold is reached.

It is pointless to argue with your sociopathic ass.  RE and I have better things to do. Now I am going to go do one of them.

Quote from: K-Dog

Quote from: TDoSWhat is the expected population decrease this year from all the dooms you can round up in the news so far this year? A 1% drop? 5%? Come on....doom as malaise and recessions is all fine and dandy for pretenders, but the two of you KNOW better than to think anyone who is a quant and has already listed definitions including a population drop involved necessary to even get the ball rolling...as opposed to just posting bad news (has there ever been a year that DIDN'T have bad news?).

1 to 5 % is reasonable.  I'll have a firm opinion after the harvest comes in.  But no matter about that because you are like Elon, you will ignore anything that does not fit your narrative.

Yes, that is what scientists always do, we make up an answer we like, publish that, and everyone accepts our professional opinion because hey! We're scientists!

Give me a break. I don't do random faith based random "narratives". We've already established all those peak oil nutters did that, but not us serious educated "dealt with a billionaire" folks.

What kind of exposure do you think the ideas either of you espouse here face? Each other, and me. I make a statement by publishing? I've got 1000 academics with PhD's smarter than either of you looking to rip it apart because, you know, they don't like folks being smarty pants with attitudes anymore than internet denizens like someone who knew peak oil was crock who keep showing up to rub it in after the fact.

Quote from: K-DogHe never gets counted.  Regardless of the actual chain of events he measures only as a statistic.  Setting a one to 1% to 5% population decrease figure as a quantitative threshold to separate systemic collapse from garden-variety bad news is totally unreasonable.  And heartless as fuck.

I don't do quantification of sympathy....I do more hard science, and that involves numbers as opposed to feelings. Look where feelings got the peak oilers. Oh right...WHAT peak oilers.

Quote from: K-DogThe human cost happens entirely off the books, long before any 1% to 5% threshold is reached.

I agree. Shitty lives are shitty lives. Politicians creating these lives are themselves shitty. But they aren't collapse. They are shitty lives. Is that a cost of the idiots in charge running amuck making sure the oligarches can mmonetize everything in sight? Yes. But it isn't collapse either. Its straight up scumbaggery.

Quote from: K-DogIt is pointless to argue with your sociopathic ass.  RE and I have better things to do. Now I am going to go do one of them.

It is good to have hobbys. I put another motorcycle up for sale, boy is thinking about the Coast Guard and I'm training in the ways of a wanna be athlete, daughter is selling her house, and I'm on one of those normal "ain't been done before" modeling projects going on, etc etc.

To Frogs in a pot of water, the temperature is always normal unless one keeps track.  Otherwise they're cooked.

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSGbAF2fhIud6h0Z17icj2EWUszE_vA7BpsSJqM-eFKkA&s=10)

RE

That is good.  And with more frogs in the pot, the story has even more critics, deniers, and twisted logic.

Voting along party lines congress might even hold the calculating frog in contempt.  Calling him Grauci (grouchi, grouchy) or something like Fauci.





Not just one singe death Elon, millions will die.

Great!  They'll get an extra 5 days of juice out of the plant by sinking the barges.  Not exactly a long term fix.

So far the FSoA is skating through the global drought's power generation crisis,  but may not make it thru the summer.  Lake Mead has reached 3521 ft and is close to deadpool level.  Same issue all along the Colorado River.  Another month, LA & Vegas may join the cities on the Danube in Europe without water enough to generate electricity.  It's not just an Oil problem.

RE

Quote Same issue all along the Colorado River.  Another month, LA & Vegas may join the cities on the Danube in Europe without water enough to generate electricity.  It's not just an Oil problem.

Prices, for homes in Henderson NV are down 2.6% over the past year.  But since that won't kill anybody directly, and the domestic violence increase shall be buried in noise, TDOS won't be able to call it a collapse.

80% reduction in power @ 1035 ft, complete shutdown at 950 ft, Deadpool @ 895 ft.  Besides the power problems, CA agriculture is gonna get hit hard.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 01:34 AMTo Frogs in a pot of water, the temperature is always normal unless one keeps track.  Otherwise they're cooked.
RE

An interesting analogy used often with peak oil. You know, all the ones since 1990 that allegedly boiled those frogs.

Oops.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 07, 2026, 02:56 PMPrices, for homes in Henderson NV are down 2.6% over the past year.  But since that won't kill anybody directly, and the domestic violence increase shall be buried in noise, TDOS won't be able to call it a collapse.

Analytics are analytics. Prices of homes around the country in 2008 went down? Double digits? 20%? Wasn't buried in the noise, WAS the story and....yup...population didn't decrease either, so it wasn't collapse.

TOD called peak oil in 2008 to coincide with it. A double collapse! Peak oil and cratering home prices!

But the world population powered right through it.

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 02:58 PM

WATERDESK.ORG • 2026-08-07

Hoover Dam approaches a hydropower cliff

“We’re going to go to 1,035,” Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, said at a meeting in mid-May. “There’s no question that’s going to happen.”

RE

THIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!  And I don't mean like they noticed peak oil, some mainstream commentary here and there, but REAL issues related to REAL problems. THIS is a great consequence of human action, overconsumption, climate change, idiots in charge, waiting to the last minute when it is too late, will have direct and unavoidable consequences that wind bag dementia addled geriatric Presidents can't lie their way out of.

I await dead pool with the kind of excitement doomers awaited peak oil doom. The difference being I'm betting on a far more sure thing.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 07, 2026, 04:53 PMTHIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!

You think people in Bucharest don't notice their Nuke plant go offline?  Like unless it's in Amerika, it's not a problem?  Collapse is a global phenomenon, and Vienna, Madrid, San Juan etc all count too.  The fact Amerikans don't "sit up & take notice" doesn't make it any less real.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 05:08 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 07, 2026, 04:53 PMTHIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!

You think people in Bucharest don't notice their Nuke plant go offline?  Like unless it's in Amerika, it's not a problem?  Collapse is a global phenomenon, and Vienna, Madrid, San Juan etc all count too.  The fact Amerikans don't "sit up & take notice" doesn't make it any less real.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 05:08 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 07, 2026, 04:53 PMTHIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!

You think people in Bucharest don't notice their Nuke plant go offline?

Of course they'll notice it. I think AZ,CA,NV will notice lack of water AND power more.

Quote from: RELike unless it's in Amerika, it's not a problem?

Nonsense. We are talking about DOOM stuff, not "problems". Doomers aren't named "ProblemPimpers", but "Doomers". Hence the interesting definitions of Doom including population decline. You were on ROE as I was, are you seriously telling me you don't have a history there expanding "problems" into Doom because there was no real Doom around involving the population decrease? Certainly it was being claimed, prior to the entire gang getting discredited between then and now.

Quote from: RECollapse is a global phenomenon, and Vienna, Madrid, San Juan etc all count too.

Indeed. ALL countries count. And remind me, how much have these "problems" reduced world population?

Quote from: REThe fact Amerikans don't "sit up & take notice" doesn't make it any less real.
RE

Well, we can talk about collapse when those population figures show it then. Otherwise, faux collapse aka "problems" are more described as some form of local inconvenience. Might people die because of it? Yes. Just like they do when a volcano goes off nearby. A flood, a damn breaks, an airplane crashes, all problems.

None of them are collapse until it meets an actual definition, which we have previously discussed. I am sorry you can't see a collapse of civilization right now, something you've been claiming for a long time, but don't blame me. Find an objective observer to claim that market declines, power plant outages (MAYBE), malaise in the markets, years of lower oil production between various peak oils along the way, you find THAT person to change the official definition of collapse to "oh yes and humans can collapse while happpily continuing to breed ever higher numbers" and we'll discuss the quality of their idea.

We've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline already. Besides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 03:11 PMWe've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline the already.

Collapse CAN be a local event. Like Katrina. But that isn't the one Doomers get all worked up over. When you were in full doomer mode with websites and followers and fundage down in South Carolina, is what you were selling was some folks in Eastern Europe having to put up solar panels or NG fired generation to replace electricity from a nuke plant? Because water for coolant was low? No....that wasn't what you were interested in.

The reason you reach for small potatoes is because there aren't any big potato items going on. Or none on a current fuse anyway. Climate change is to slow on your timeframe to be of interest. Peak oils have come and gone a few times without anyone noticing. The US, for all its idiot political crap is still feeding people, oligarches, illegals, retiree's, and those completely dependent on the state. Now THAT one is a criteria I think might be, or should be, most of personal concern. I have the same concern but in a different way. If care of the elderly goes south and contributes to a falling population, I've got to figure out how to care for my mother. Fortunately that is possible for me, but probably not for everyone.

Quote from: REBesides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.
RE

Now, lagging indicator is a good angle. Population decrease is always happening, as is population replacement. But for the balance of births to deaths to go net negative would be visible as it happens. So....do we have any indication of people dying at unprecedented, but not yet numerically significant enough to count, events?

Nuke plants MAYBE shutting down certainly ain't it. Russia's war might be s start? Russia seems to be losing quite a few folks. The usual poor countries in Africa perhaps? Anything new there on  a scale that outweighs new births do you think?

I previously responded listing all the countries with declining populations.  You can search for it.

RE

Poor Brown Amerikans.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 07:58 PMI previously responded listing all the countries with declining populations.  You can search for it.
RE

Sure I can search for it. But I'm not a piecemeal collapse-o-not, I am a BIG TIME COLLAPSER!!!!! You know, like peak oilers were, like you used to be before you voiced this recent "little countries decreasing in population is collapse" angle. The oilers went to full on DOOM, which was picked up by those with similar ideas but using a different mechanism (global cooling in 1970 for example).

A country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere. EASY. Which is why country level can't be the metric.

This is Japan's population. Feel free to point out how TERRIBLE this measure of collapse has bothered them otherwise. Bodies piling up in the street? How many are starving each year? Etc etc. Apparently collapse started for them around 2010.....any evidence of anything other than a decreasing population? Bodies piling up in the streets from starvation, ALMOST lack of electricity like your nuke example?

(https://www.nippon.com/en/ncommon/contents/japan-data/2395401/2395401.png)

Quote from: REPoor Brown Amerikans.
RE

If, and looking like "when" Boulder dam has both a power and water issue, is it your opinion that it will effect only the non brown Americans? In Puerto Rico, surrounded by an ocean, water isn't the actual issue at all. The money for desalinization plants might be, but that is a money problem, not a water problem. Boulder Dam however, that could be directly a water problem and can discriminate on wealth rather than skin color.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 09, 2026, 02:39 PMA country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere.

The empty homes are not an illusion.




RE

EXCELLENT article on the slow motion disaster of "gee what climate change?" below Boulder Dam.

https://www.worldatlas.com/lakes/what-happens-if-lake-powell-and-lake-mead-both-fail.html

Quote from: RE on Aug 09, 2026, 09:43 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 09, 2026, 02:39 PMA country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere.

The empty homes are not an illusion.

Never said they were. Said that COUNTRY LEVEL depopulation has been happening for more than a decade in a fully industrialized country and it sure ain't anything like what has been claimed of "collapse".

Why cheapen the very idea of collapse? I get it you've been waiting like at least 2 decades for something to happen, and there are some good indications of potential floating around, but latching onto a loser like this one?

Just....waiting so long to scratch that itch that you take any bait offered?

As I have said many times, Collapse is a process, not an event.  Population is just one of the indicators.  Like a ball rolling over a hill, it slows as it reaches the top and then begins to pick up speed as it begins its downward journey.   Globally, we are just about at the top of the hill and just beginning the trip down.  The speed of depopulation will pick up as we move along the path.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 11, 2026, 05:14 AMAs I have said many times, Collapse is a process, not an event.

Yes, you have said that. And others have DEFINED what collapse is.....a quantifiable part of that process being species population decline. So....we are still waiting around for the process to be officially kicked off. "Species" <> "Country".

Quote from: REPopulation is just one of the indicators.

But one that, as a signal of collapse, is defined, and would be undeniable. As compared to the relative, insignificant and imagined ones invented on the internet. I don't know WHY those who, for some reason, REALLY REALLY want to say it is happening. Jim Jones and Ugo snd Gail and Catton demonstrate this regularly. Not so much anymore, and with a far smaller audience is my bet.

Didn't you once mention on your WordPress blog you were looking for the big bucks out of Doom and a following to provide it? Based on? Pitching collapse concepts, solutions, parts near Inman showing how the Amish live because the world was going to be there soon? SUN was founded with that idea. Concepts are nice. Collapse reality is something else. If it HAD been happening, when you were attempting to monetize it, by the definition of what collapse is as I've discussed, they would be too busy trying to stay alive than hand you any spare change along the way. CFS.

Quote from: RELike a ball rolling over a hill, it slows as it reaches the top and then begins to pick up speed as it begins its downward journey. 

I'll take than analogy. The ball certainly decelerates as it reaches the top of a hill, baring any outside influence. That happened on 1970 on Earth Day, when obviously the world was informed of the oncoming collapse. Global freezing, lack of food, hundreds of millions starving. Jimmy Carter validated oil collapse by announcing the world would run out by the end of the 80's. So...the question isn't whether or not the ball is decelerating, the question is how many more half centuries of happily rolling along can the ball do, as obviously far more influential and credentialed folks already demonstrated they didn't know dick about it. Effectively, all the internet did was allow every Tom, Dick and Harry to inexpertly chime in. Like....Jim Jones, Heaven's Gaters, and Koresch. Doomers all, with slightly different angles.

Bad things happening, which have been happening since the dawn of time, might reach collapse. Given enough time, of COURSE collapse will happen. After all, the Sun is getting 40 million tons a second lighter! We are CERTAINLY doomed. But that is hard to monetize, even being a scientific fact.

Quote from: REGlobally, we are just about at the top of the hill and just beginning the trip down.  The speed of depopulation will pick up as we move along the path.

RE

You only mentioned speed of the ball. How about its velocity? The ball isn't going up the hill linearly, it is spiraling around the hill, on a generally upward trajectory. Every time you look to the top of the hill, you can see it, right there! But then the ball travels laterally along a cone shaped hill, moving dozens of feet for every inch higher in elevation.

Which is why everyone and their grandmother who claims the end if nigh if looking 88 degrees off the plane of balls forward motion, to a place where they will never see because the ball has to circle to hill another 1000 times before it gets there.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 11, 2026, 10:26 AMYou only mentioned speed of the ball. How about its velocity? The ball isn't going up the hill linearly, it is spiraling around the hill, on a generally upward trajectory. Every time you look to the top of the hill, you can see it, right there! But then the ball travels laterally along a cone shaped hill, moving dozens of feet for every inch higher in elevation.

First of all, Speed and Velocity are synonymous, although V is a vector quantity with a direction.  2nd, absent any outside force besides Gravity, the ball travels straight up or down the hill, it doesn't spiral.  Third. the velocity increases due to the force of gravity accelerating it down the hill.

Your understanding of Newtonian Mechanics is pathetic.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 11, 2026, 12:05 PMFirst of all, Speed and Velocity are synonymous, although V is a vector quantity with a direction. teach th

Maybe they don't teach the basics of speed and velocity to idiots in modern high schools, but they aren't synonymous to non-idiots any more than someone like K-Dog would confuse amps and watts. 

Ergo....I knew EXACTLY what I said, and obviously revealed it by providing a directional component to that ball climbing a hill....

Quote from: RE2nd, absent any outside force besides Gravity, the ball travels straight up or down the hill, it doesn't spiral.

Good thing I provided a mental image of how it COULD work to negate your particular example, regardless of the how. And it is even a BETTER example than yours....because as an analogy it fits the history of doom proclamations that don't happen, yet everyone seems to think they are X time away...and then a decade after X time has passed, folks claim it all over again!

Thanks for not mentioning anything about how obvious this rinse, recycle and repeat cycle is. It means you know you don't have a way around the obvious history of doom. Be it from Catton, Ehrlich, or everyone in the modern internet age.

Quote from: REThird. the velocity increases due to the force of gravity accelerating it down the hill.

I wasn't discussing going down the hill. That is your interest, and the thing that hasn't happened (but HOPE abounds!). And all of those who came before you....the ball has reached the top of the hill....DOOM!!!  And then a decade later presto...rinse, recycle, repeat...how in the heck did Newtonian Mechanics get me back up the hill! Again!

Quote from: REYour understanding of Newtonian Mechanics is pathetic.
RE

And your ability to counter the underlying thought of rinse, recycle and repeat is worse.

I've mentioned it before, your perspective has been around for a millennium. What is it they say about history? Learn some or be doomed to repeat it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypticism

Newtonian Mechanics to combat a thought experiment....while avoiding the actual point. Which is factual, and therefore impossible to refute.

QuoteBut one that, as a signal of collapse, is defined, and would be undeniable. As compared to the relative, insignificant and imagined ones invented on the internet. I don't know WHY those who, for some reason, REALLY REALLY want to say it is happening. Jim Jones and Ugo snd Gail and Catton demonstrate this regularly. Not so much anymore, and with a far smaller audience is my bet.

No, consider the black death in Europe's middle ages.  A lot of people died but the continuity of civilization continued so you can't call it collapse.

The problem is that your thinking is logically flawed.  Collapse is when something existing (civilization) ceases to exist.  Collapse is the absence of what was.  Attempting to define something that does not exist is a logical can of worms.  Collapse does not exist.  Collapse is when something existing ceases to exist, and defining what that something is means different things to different people.  There is a threshold problem.  Different strokes for different folks.  Our criteria varies.

Defining a state of non-existence using the vocabulary of existence is not so easy to do.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 11, 2026, 04:22 PMNo, consider the black death in Europe's middle ages.  A lot of people died but the continuity of civilization continued so you can't call it collapse.

Again, definitions. We have been discussing the idea that a collapse can be claimed to be in progress as population decreases. Not some single country, but the species at large. Collapse has NOT been defined as ALL people dying, that is called "extinction".

During the Black death human population is estimated to have decreased from 450-500 million people to 350-375 million. I accept this as within the definition of a species population reduction of significant size to be a collapse. But obviously not an extinction.

Quote from: K-DogThe problem is that your thinking is logically flawed.

Always possible. But of the three of us, only one is making a living doing it.

Quote from: K-DogCollapse is when something existing (civilization) ceases to exist.  Collapse is the absence of what was.

Fine. If you want to define collapse as extinction, you can. I stipulate that a really, really, really bad collapse can be extinction. And when all of a species is gone, meeting this condition, it also fits within the definitions AI provides. 

AI Say:
Key Differences:

Species Collapse:Population numbers drop very fast.The group is in extreme danger.Animals or plants still live on Earth.Recovery is still possible with help.

Extinction:Zero living members remain anywhere. The loss is permanent. No breeding can happen.Recovery is impossible.

Population numbers drop in collapse, no population remaining = extinction. So AI says.

Quote from: K-DogAttempting to define something that does not exist is a logical can of worms.  Collapse does not exist.

See above. AI seems to have no problem understanding the difference.

Quote from: K-DogCollapse is when something existing ceases to exist, and defining what that something is means different things to different people.  There is a threshold problem.  Different strokes for different folks.  Our criteria varies.

Hence the use of a disinterested 3rd party.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 11, 2026, 03:50 PMI've mentioned it before, your perspective has been around for a millennium.

My perspective has been around for millenia, the conditions of population size, resource depletion, climate change and environmental degradation are relatively recent.  I was fortunate enough to be born at the right time for my perspective to play out. 😀

RE