The ongoing tragedy of the wildfires consuming the Mansions in the Hollywood Hills cannot be overstated. Some of our biggest stars homes have been reduced to ashes in Laurel Canyon and along Mulholland Drive. A-List homeowners in Malibu were seen running panic stricken along the beach heading for the safety of the ocean, only to be swept away by the rip tide and undertow. Jamie Lee Curtis is now among the many homeless living in tents on Hollywood Boulevard.
There is some reason for hope. Prior to leaving office, POTUS Joe has declared it a Federal Disaster and promised to bail out all the insurance companies so the stars can rebuild as quickly as possible. The Red Cross has established a fund all Americans are encouraged to donate money to protect or national security by rebuilding the mansions as quickly as possible. No important actor should be placed in danger of getting pneumonia when her house burns down. You can donate your used clothing as well, since many gowns and tuxedos were burned in the fires.
Title: Hollywood Burning Livestream
Post by: RE on Jan 09, 2025, 07:07 AM
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 09, 2025, 01:54 PM
The video coming out of LA is truly Apocalyptic. The "Big One" of a 9.0 Earthquake wasn't even necessary to destroy Sodom & Gomorrah, the firestorm alone was enough to reduce everything from Palm Springs to Malibu to ashes.
The Insurance adjusting in the aftermath is going to be interesting. These are neighborhoods where every house on the block has a pricetag 7 or 8 digits long, many of them packed with artwork worth more than the house. Wardrobes full of Gucci bags, not to mention jewelry and baseball card and comic book collections.
Then there are all the biznesses like gyms and hair salons that cater to the rich and chharge huge membership fees and private trainers and coaches wh will lose their clients at least for weeks and permanently in many cases. Tax revenue will drop like a stone.
Also worth noting will be the difference between how this gets fixed up versus say the devastated neighborhoods around NOLA after Katrina. One suspects these people will not be housed in FEMA trailers. lol.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: Surly1 on Jan 09, 2025, 03:06 PM
It is already all but impossible for younger generations to purchase a home. The vast majority of working class nooks simply will not be able to purchase a home in climate crisis America. Insurance companies are deserting climate change-stricken areas, and if you cannot get your home insured, you cannot get a mortgage. If people can't buy houses that insurers say could easily be destroyed due to risk. then the value of those houses go down. as does the tax base. If the value of the houses go down, so do the property taxes the state collects from those communities at climate risk. If the state collects less property taxes, they provide less services to the area, creating a death spiral where the only logical conclusion is that no one lives in these communities vulnerable to climate impacts. Coming to a theater or drive-in near you...
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 09, 2025, 04:26 PM
California's insurance is in crisis. The solution will cost homeowners a ton. (https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/business/california-wildfires-homeowners-insurance/index.html)
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: Surly1 on Jan 10, 2025, 07:50 AM
As the refrain from an old Steely Dan song goes, "Here come those Santa Ana winds again..."
These seasonal Santa Ana winds and drought have combined to turn the LA fires into monstrous blowtorches swallowing houses and commercial buildings in minutes. Normally peaking at 50-60 mph, the winds are now gusting over 100 miles per hour, accelerating the fires to points not seen before. 10,000 structures burned, at least 10 dead, and 200,000+ people displaced.
From the photographs, Malibu looks like Hiroshima or Dresden. Nobody of good faith can argue that this is not a climate change inflected disaster of the first order. Unfortunately, the woods are full of people not of good faith.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 10, 2025, 12:43 PM
You can't even make the "there have always been [fill in disaster]" argument you get with hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes & floods. 9 or the 10 largest firestorms in SoCal history have all occured in the last decade. It's worse, happening more often and getting worser.
Far as insurance goes, it's the same problem you have with dental insurance and why it doesn't work. Nearly everyone gets tooth decay and needs dental work regularly, so you can't spread out the risk over a population. Today, if you live in LA fora decade, it's almost certain a firestorm will hit your neighborhood at some point. Most mortgages are 30 years, so chances are the house burns before it's even paid off. Your premium has to be close to the cost of the mortgage itself.
There are only 2 ways to live there now, which is either you are rich enough to be able to afford rebuilding yourself, or use the old Japanese solution which was to build cheap structures out f paper and wood that could burn and be rebuilt in a matter of days. Of course, modern building codes don't allow for that.
Given how widespread the devastation is, it's hard to imagine how they are going to rebuild n any reasonable timeframe. There aren't enough contractors and construction workers to build that many houses all at the same time, even if they try importing them in from all over the country. Particularly not fancy individual mansions that are custom architectural plans. Maybe if they do modular construction and factory built housing, but what celebrity would want one of those?
Hollywood was already having trouble keeping production in that neighborhood due to the tax structure and cost of living for the support personnel. This may very well be the end of Hollywood as the global movie capitol of the world. Which would also mean an enormous hit to CA tax revenue since it's a major industry there.
The effects of this conflagration are going to be felt for a long time. I don't think they'll ever recover. LA is going to be like Detroit after the auto industry left.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 10, 2025, 04:10 PM
Can you quantify "all but"? My daughter did it in the most expensive non-coastal city in the US by the age of 25. The boy could as well, but is choosing not to. I work with quite a few reasonably young people, say 24-29, generally well educated, and more than a few of them own homes. I oresume others will get them after they settle in at work.
By no means do these folks represent "younger generations" at large as they went to college, didn't get degrees in basket weaving, and then went job hunting. But if "all but impossible" just means "those who can't be bothered to want to do anything with themselves other than McDonalds" that is different. Are there stats on what constitutes "all but impossible" to you?
I am just watching out for a standard representation that occurs often online, which is representing the exception as the norm, when in fact it might just be...."more often than it used to be".
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 10, 2025, 04:25 PM
I am just watching out for a standard representation that occurs often online, which is representing the exception as the norm, when in fact it might just be...."more often than it used to be".
QuoteThe boy could as well, but is choosing not to.
And I could bone Taylor Swift, but I choose not to.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 10, 2025, 05:51 PM
That is Tdos SAD (statistically anomalous daughter), the motorcycle racing, 6 figure salary ultra motivated super model MMA champion who he whips out every time he wants to show that all the statistics about Gen Z are wrong and they're actually doing just great like his Super Daughter.
Of course, he also knows I made his incessant bragging about his super successful kids against the rules, so he's going back in the cooler...again.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: monsta666 on Jan 10, 2025, 11:47 PM
In my time working at retail banking as a personal banker in London it was my experience that most people getting mortgages were NOT 25 or under. It was mostly people in the 30 plus range. In this group I include people buying their first starter homes.
Of the people who did get mortgages early (people in their 20s) they often go a lot of support from their parents on the deposit. In fact it is often said that when it comes to mortgages one of the biggest providers in the UK is the bank of "mum and dad". In other words the reason get ahead isn't so much about being entrepreneurial spirit but just picking the right parents at birth. Any person who had no support and still managed to make a purchase in their 20s usually had a good story on how they got their wealth so quickly. But those were the exceptional people and were not the norm.
Whilst my experiences are from London I don't think there is a reason to believe these experiences are atypical and I bet a similar dynamic would be found in California.
We hear about the stories of the young kids getting mortgages because the stories are exceptional and news worthy. But they are the exceptions and not the norm. The reality is less people are able to afford buying a house with or without a mortgage and this is an indicator that there is a decline in the middle class. Buying a house is a middle class activity, you don't see the working class do it as often.
EDIT
Just found this timely article on The Guardian which describes the hotel of "mum and dad" (new term to me) being busier than ever before. The hotel of mum and dad is alluding to the fact that a fifth 24-34 year olds in Britain are living with their parents so you see mum and dad are increasingly taking on the roles of banking and hotels for these children and society in general:
It is a sign of our times this is happening and to simply blame it on the youth today being lazy is ironically a lazy response that fails to consider the prevailing economic conditions we live in.
Title: LA Wildfires Push California Insurance Market to Its Limit
Post by: RE on Jan 11, 2025, 10:15 AM
Reading between the lines here, I can predict with 90% certainty that the state backed insurer of last resort FAIR plan does not have enough money to cover their share of the losses and will require a bailout. I will make a slightly less confident bet that the private insurers of State Farm and Allstate will also need a bailout.
Further, even for those who get an insurance payout, who is going to insure them to rebuild on the same piece of property? They could get started framing the house, and next week the winds could kick up again and the frame of the new house could burn all over again.
Then there are the large number of people NOT insured who still also owe money on their mortgage. They can't afford to rebuild and they have nowhere to live and since they have to pay the old mortgage do not have money to also pay even a 1 bedroom apt rental price in that area, if they could find one because that type of housing mostly doesn't exist in that area.
Then also for many the only reason they could afford to live in those neighborhoods was because they had some kind of high paying job in the area. Does this job still exist? If not, will they be able to find a job at anywhere near their old salary if say they are a 50 year old mid level producer on some TV show? You are going to have some real sob stories of people who on paper were 1%-ers with a $3M house and $300K job whose insurance was cancelled last year and now are homeless and bankrupt with no job and still have $2M left on their old mortgage to pay off. There's no housing in the area near their old job even if it still exists. The only thing they have left is the Mercedes they drove away in, their other cars all burned up with the house. They still owe money on the Mercedes too.
Corollary to all of this is the RE market there is going to be totally in the toilet. Anybody with half a brain who does get a insurance payout won't rebuild, they'll take a chunk of the money to clear the debris and then put the bare land on the market at (literally) firesale prices. Maybe Hedge Funds will snap up properties on the cheap this way, but I'm not sure even Hedge Fund mgrs would want to risk buying bare land there. Anyhow, otherwise after cleaning up and putting the property up for sale, the smart former Hollywood resident will take the rest of the insurance payout and GTFO of Dodge and buy a nice house in Missouri for !/10th the price of their old Hollywood house and just as big.
On top of all of this, the event really isn't even over. High winds are expected again next week, the current fires are 50% contained or less and new fires can start anywhere that hasn't burned yet. Los Angeles could burn for the rest of February. Probably not and it's already a wipeout, but it could.
Finally, at some point this going to bleed over into the rest of the economy and CA will be in a mega recession/depression. This in turn will affect the national economy. LA was of course already just packed with homeless people, now you have instantly made another say 50K homeless and simultaneously removed housing stock AND made it more difficult to do any rebuilding.
Basically, for Los Angeles, IT'S OVAH! The Fat Lady has sung. It has COLLAPSED and it won't recover. It's going to be the West Coast Detroit in no time.
LA Wildfires Push California Insurance Market to Its Limit
RE
Title: Area 51 Wildfire Conspiracy Rumours
Post by: RE on Jan 11, 2025, 02:38 PM
Fire still raging, now burning Brentwood.
Apparently also there has been some weird activity for the last 2 days over Area 51 with streaks of something being dropped in the air then picked up on radar blowing over the areas that are on fire. Conspiracy channels are buzzing about this.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 12, 2025, 09:33 AM
And I found a source that says the LA fires are being started by homeless people.
And that article is not being repeated here.
I attempted to trace the ownership of the news outlet and it appears to have been generated by AIPAC.
Now why would AIPAC want to blame LA fires on homeless people? Can anyone figure it out?
Why would there be disgusting manipulation to make us think about 'us' and 'them'.
Why would 'they' want to harden hearts that way.
Any ideas?
Why make us comfortable fearing 'others'.
The truly sad thing is that such disgusting manipulation is effective.
They've arrested a couple of people on arson charges.
Why would they do it? First off, "misery loves company". 2nd, if you are a homeless person and want to get people who are comfortably housed in beautiful homes to understand what it's like to be homeless, what better way to do it than to make them homeless also? When you think about it this way, it's really almost inevitable with 1000s of homeless people on the street, 1 of them is going to be ticked off enough that they'll start a fire.
In NY, Homeless are caught making illegal fires all the time in buildings they squat in with no heat or in the parks where they set up camps. Usually they don't end up burning down buildings though. The problem for LA is that with the Santa Ana winds and all the dry vegetation around, a small fire can turn into a raging inferno in minutes. So even if the homeless person isn't purposefully trying to burn down houses, that can be the result.
Either way, purposeful or accidental there is a reasonable chance 1 of these fires was started by a homeless person. You can mark it as a consequence of having such a large population of homeless. The solution of course is to house them. Then they will be less likely to start fires.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 12, 2025, 09:00 PM
You missed the point. Of course a homeless person could start a fire. Homeless people start fires all the time. But why would someone publish an article about 'homeless people' starting the LA fires without ANY facts.
The arrested people did not start any of the wildfires.
Who started the fires? The arrested people did not start the LA fires, so what is the point of talking about two economically challenged people who have no more connection to the LA wildfires than the suspects named in the muzic. But that they both smell bad.
Perhaps we need to burn some witches to properly explain things.
Homeless witches.
Quote"Justice will be swift. It will be firm, and the maximum punishment will be sought," Los Angeles District Attorney Nathan Hochman told NewNation's Ashleigh Banfield, adding that any suspected arsonist could be charged with homicide and sentenced to life in prison.
All the DA needs are suspects. I suggest not being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It would not be good.
Somebody get the DA a dog to take care of. Please.
QuoteThere was a desert wind blowing that night. It was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that come down through the mountain passes and curl your hair and make your nerves jump and your skin itch. On nights like that, every booze party ends in a fight. Meek little wives feel the edge of the carving knife and study their husband's necks. Anything can happen.
Santa Ana winds have a long history.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 13, 2025, 02:57 AM
It shouldn't be any more of a surprise homeless people will be blamed for the fires than it might be true. Somebody has to be blamed, and homeless people are an EZ target. Finding which homeless person it was that started a particular fire is unlikely though. It will however give them an excuse to make outdoor fires a crime without a special permit and another thing the cops can charge them with to arrest them.
RE
Title: LA fires forecast to be costliest blaze in US history with estimate of over $200bn i
Post by: RE on Jan 13, 2025, 10:19 PM
Cost estimates are continuing to rise, AccuWeather now puts it at $250B-275B. That is almost triple Katrina and in the neighborhood of the bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis. There's no way the insurance companies can cover that kind of loss. Money printing is going to be necessary.
Despite this, all the officials repeat the usual post-disaster platitudes about it being only property that can be rebuilt and replaced and there will be disaster relief loans etc etc etc. Meanwhile, FEMA is already denying applications but don't worry it's just because everything isn't filled out correctly on the paperwork so call them up and resubmit and eventually maybe you'll get some help when they figure out where the money will come from because they don't have it now which is why they are rejecting any paperwork that is getting filed now. Not sure how much money FEMA has in their bank account to dish out, but I guarantee it's not $250B.
Of course the fires are still ongoing and everyone is still in the emergency shelter phase so the complaining hasn't really started yeet. Wait until a month or so after the fires are out and they still don't have housing or rebuilding money and/or can't find a contractor to even clean up the rubble. It's going to be just like the aftermath of Katrina, except now it's not poor black folks in NOLA slums it's upper middle class entertainment industry people. They will not be happy.
As far as I can tell, this fire is NOT related to the LA wildfires, it's well north of LA in Monterrey and is an isolated injdustrial plant fire. It is an interesting coinkidink though that it occurred while those fires are still burning and occupying the time of every fire department in CA and the rest of the western states adjacent to it.
Also of interest is the fact it is spewing toxic smoke into the atmosphere and they aren't even trying to put it out, just waiting for it to finish burning. This because Li battery fires aren't easy to extinguish by normal firefighting techniques like spraying tons of water on them.
Apparently this is the BIGGEST such plant in the world, which is saying a lot when you consider the Chinese probably make more Li batteries than we do here.
I do wonder about how the toxicity of this smoke compares to the toxicity of smoke from a fire in a Nuke Puke plant. The Li isn't radioactive of course, but Li as a chemical is highly reactive and even just tiny quantities of it when inhaled could be extremely damaging to the lungs. The articles so far aren't talking about this very much, which smells like a coverup to me.
That's where the poor/middle class blacks lived. They won't be able to afford to rebuild, so the property will be snapped up by developers and it will be gentrified and replaced with luxury housing for the rich. Happens after all the fires.
Wealth will dictate LA fire recovery unless California learns from mistakes of past disasters
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 18, 2025, 03:52 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 12, 2025, 09:00 PMYou missed the point. Of course a homeless person could start a fire. Homeless people start fires all the time. But why would someone publish an article about 'homeless people' starting the LA fires without ANY facts.
The same reason people would take the published work of M. K. Hubbert and say he was absolutely right when those charts of his certainly don't look anything like the actual results?
When faced with irrefutable data (or even just inconvenient truths)...folks just do the "but...but...but" routine. With arguments of "who are you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes" or hopes and dreams or excuses...homeless people being easy targets.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 18, 2025, 04:29 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 12, 2025, 09:00 PMYou missed the point. Of course a homeless person could start a fire. Homeless people start fires all the time. But why would someone publish an article about 'homeless people' starting the LA fires without ANY facts.
The same reason people would take the published work of M. K. Hubbert and say he was absolutely right when those charts of his certainly don't look anything like the actual results?
When faced with irrefutable data (or even just inconvenient truths)...folks just do the "but...but...but" routine. With arguments of "who are you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes" or hopes and dreams or excuses...homeless people being easy targets.
I fail to see how Hubbert's data and charts and the reasons articles are published blaming homeless people for fires are the same. Even as an analogy this doesn't work.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 18, 2025, 09:43 PM
The western world has a blind eye to the realities of all things Russian. Unexplored and untapped fields in Russian territory never entered the equation. Of course that's also sheepishly glossing over the whole fracking bonanza.
I spent a good decade (having fun with chickens goats and pigs and all things doom) sitting on the Watchtower of Doom until my asscheeks fell asleep and my kid needed better schools than podunk missouri had to offer. It's nice to know if our society degenerates into an agrarian backwater I'll always have skilz.
Y'know, people believe all kinds of shit based on their exposure to data - be it intentionally sought out or just appearing in whatever feeds they get. Never forget "content generators" have an agenda, and some of the most case hardened opinions driving that content.
Here's an idea... Round up crazy homeless and put them in simple barracks housing in agricultural work camps. Three nutritious meals a day, clean water mandatory daily showers/shaves and palliative health care. Med levels can be determined at induction detox period. In and out 15 - 30 day treatment programs have failed miserably so like parole hearings, once a year you get to pitch your bid for transition back into the real world / productive economy.
Non crazy people who find themselves jobless, penniless and homeless can also get a break from a hopeless situation and voluntarily sign up for a six month stint of farm labor with job placement assistance at end of term. Good option for women with kids needing some safety and a fresh start.
Just spitballing. The homeless are getting more numerous and crazy - what we've been doing seems to be a complete fail
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 18, 2025, 10:27 PM
Quote from: REI fail to see how Hubbert's data and charts and the reasons articles are published blaming homeless people for fires are the same. Even as an analogy this doesn't work. RE
Simple logic. Some people can't STAND the idea of the real answer....it contradicts some closely held belief. Therefore they create their own. As it can't be the fault of the fine rich folk involved, or the lousy efforts of local politicians in trying to mitgate in advance a massive and not unexpected conflagration, they want and need a story that sounds better.
Exactly the same as peak oilers who went hook, line and sinker for the accuracy of Hubbert's work. They can't talk about his work holding up anymore as his prognostication went one way, and both US and world oil went another. Something else needs to be thrown into the mix. I referred to it previously as the "but but but" routine...as excuses are the order of the day in such situations. Marion COULDN'T HAVE been wrong...therefore we fill in all the blanks for him. Like rich folk overbuilding in a known fire disaster zone are just victims of....can't be bad decisions and lousy politicians cutting fire fighting budgets...it must be the homeless! But but but! Belief in a thing can be powerful, to the exclusion of the reality itself. Them homeless people's be da villians!
All quite logical. I seriously doubt that you missed the implied link...after all...Toyota didn't go bankrupt back in 2008...but with age and malaise and fewer limbs....memory is allowed to be more....selective. ;)
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 18, 2025, 10:33 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 18, 2025, 09:43 PMThe western world has a blind eye to the realities of all things Russian. Unexplored and untapped fields in Russian territory never entered the equation. Of course that's also sheepishly glossing over the whole fracking bonanza.
The unexplored and untapped in Russia has been assesed the same as the old and tired fields. And that is the real issue with Russia's production, new projects are just trying to keep those old tired fields alive because finding much new stuff has pesky without the help from the people who actually now how. And they want a CUT for helping! How dare the people that know more about producing oil than Russia ever has want a cut!
Chavez wasn't thrilled with the idea either. Look what good it did him.
Quote from: comrad simbaI spent a good decade (having fun with chickens goats and pigs and all things doom) sitting on the Watchtower of Doom until my asscheeks fell asleep and my kid needed better schools than podunk missouri had to offer. It's nice to know if our society degenerates into an agrarian backwater I'll always have skilz.
Your story is not dissimilar to that of others. Pops was a moderator on peakoil.com for quite some time. Bumped into him on reddit the other day...he gave up when it turned out that personal doom was approaching faster than anything or everything he had been harping on for the past quarter century.
Quote from: comrade simbaThe homeless are getting more numerous and crazy - what we've been doing seems to be a complete fail
Truth.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 18, 2025, 11:33 PM
Did you actually find someplace that had public schools that actually educate?
QuoteNon crazy people who find themselves jobless, penniless and homeless can also get a break from a hopeless situation and voluntarily sign up for a six month stint of farm labor with job placement assistance at end of term. Good option for women with kids needing some safety and a fresh start.
This actually already sorta exists in a NGO sorta way. WWOOFers (https://wwoofusa.org/en/) sign up to work on Organic Farms world-wide in return for room & board and a small monthly stipend. The WWOOF website and organization matches up people looking to leave the rat race to work on a farm. Not sure how many homeless organizations are aware of this and use it to place people. Seems like it would be a good way to address at least part of the problem.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 19, 2025, 12:40 PM
tdos - I wasn't aware of the full extent of russian oil fields being factored into peak oil figures. I chuckle at how I steeped into amerocentricism I was prior to the back half of the 20-teens. I never counted on the yield of the frakfields keeping gas prices down either. What new offwhite swan wonders are in store that that remain hidden from lack of knowledge and/or confirmation bias? I also figure the Russians are fully capable of extracting their reserves without the help of the west. Russian shovels in the hands of North Koreans outta be able to dig plenty of oil wells, bwahahaha! (Raff's marrying his high school sweetheart in Kansas City this November)
RE - Neosho, a small city of 12,000 in SW Missouri had a high school that had a bunch of old school teachers and a champion level debate team. Wife taught english/lit at the community college in that city. Our homestead was about thirty miles from there... sold the farm and moved to town since the local high school was football, pickup trucks, pregnant girls and meth.
Had to spend 6 years in industrial america - forklift, machine operator, line prole etc. Got the boy through Missouri U without student debt. I'm one of the few living the american dream... your kids do better than you. Granted, acid soaked hippie is a low bar :-D
Wwoofing is a cool deal for those who (operative word) want to work on organic farms, though those are in this day and age rather scarce. Coupling the pyrocene topic with more labor intensive agricultural practices I have been thinking about an observation - the price of no hormone grass-fed hamburger is within 10 or 15 percent of crunched up big ag dairy cow burger. Stringing electric fence daily for mob grazing pasture rotation would be an ideal solution for a half dozen guys on a large ranch. More acreage will be suited to well managed grasslands as climate shifts northward over the coming decades. The authentic "Cowboy" may once again be in demand.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 19, 2025, 01:48 PM
I'm familiar with Neosho, I lived for a few years in the major metro of SW MO, Springfield. I'm a tad surprised that you found the HS there to be good, since I found the ones in Springfield to be pretty awful. Then again, I do know that a HS in the Ozarks is a mighty low bar and anything would be up from that. My advice to everyone nowadays is to homeschool, especially if you're Doomsteading. The internet provides all the resources you need, even if you don't have an extensive post HS education yourself.
I don't think we'll see a return of cowboys recruited from the ranks of the homeless, not so much due to the hard work involved as the fact cattle ranching whether organic or industrial farm style is outrageously water and energy intensive. However, if they were trained in raising mealworms and grasshoppers or fishfarming Tilapia, there probably will be demand for people to do that labor.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 19, 2025, 04:49 PM
Neosho at that time (2020ish) was an outlier for the area. We got lucky squeaking in through the last generation of well educated classes. It has gone to shit since that time.
There will be a certain percentage of homeless that aren't permanently crippled by drug use and truly horrid upbringing - the second generation homeless people I have come across might be okay for picking fruit. Not too far a cry from collecting cans. (groan) I built a campervan out of a Promaster for my retirement gift to myself and the wife and I travel all over the country in between visiting the furniture in Klamath-Falls Oregon. I see mile after mile of grievously mismanaged pasture everywhere we go. Have you read any of Joel Salatin's cattle raising books/literature? I'm betting at least half the acreage irrigated for hay destined for feedlots would be more profitable for grass fed beef, and use a 1/4 of the water, zero fertilizer/herbicide, and a comparatively minuscule amount of fuel. And nothing begs goats like the strip between roadway and fence row on any highway in america. Fuck john deer tractor sales. "Me and Julio runnin goats down the median"
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 19, 2025, 07:51 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 19, 2025, 04:49 PMThere will be a certain percentage of homeless that aren't permanently crippled by drug use and truly horrid upbringing - the second generation homeless people I have come across might be okay for picking fruit. Not too far a cry from collecting cans. (groan)
QuoteYou make a very important point about the creation of a new level of underclass, 2nd Generation homeless, the children of formerly working or middle class who are growing up bouncing through failing schools as their parents are bounced from one temporary housing situation to the next. Similar of course to kids in the foster care system who also get bounced from one foster family to the next who have the additional issues with substandard foster parents who often do that just for the money they get from the state to care for kids. They are not much different from people who run the many small Assisted Care Living homes for old folks. In fact the people who ran the Gulag that I was stuck in for 7 months started before that raising foster kids and did well financially at both endeavors, with a nice retirement home in Mexico they spend a few months a year at while they leave an older woman manager running the ACL they pay $25/hr running the place with her sociopathic husband.
However, you really have to broaden it, because schools are failing so broadly across the country that even if parents haven't actually gone homeless, we have a generation growing up now where more than 50% of the kids are getting virtually no education who also have virtually no hope of getting a decent job when they hit 18 and get kicked out of the education system with a piece of paper that says nothing more than they successfully survived being warehoused in a public school for 13 years.
QuoteI built a campervan out of a Promaster for my retirement gift to myself and the wife and I travel all over the country in between visiting the furniture in Klamath-Falls Oregon. I see mile after mile of grievously mismanaged pasture everywhere we go. Have you read any of Joel Salatin's cattle raising books/literature? I'm betting at least half the acreage irrigated for hay destined for feedlots would be more profitable for grass fed beef, and use a 1/4 of the water, zero fertilizer/herbicide, and a comparatively minuscule amount of fuel. And nothing begs goats like the strip between roadway and fence row on any highway in america. Fuck john deer tractor sales. "Me and Julio runnin goats down the median"
I'm not knowledgeable in the area of permaculture and sustainable agriculture methods and haven't read the canon of books by guys like Salatin that Doomsteaders use as a Bible settng up their Doomsteads. I did interview quite a few of them though over the years, so I picked up a little knowledge from my discussions with them.
There's no doubt that land use has been thoroughly mismanaged for the whole trip down the collapse highway of the automobile culture. You can go back to the famous line from Joni Mitchell's "Big Yellow Taxi", Pave Paradise & put up a Parking Lot. Fabulous Ag land all over the country has fallen to strip malls, subdivisions and urban sprawl over the last 50 years, and reclaiming it will be an essential aspect of survival for any people who survive the Zero Point of collapse. However, all that asphalt has poisoned a lot of the land, and even just ripping it up is going to take generations. I don't think it will be quite as simple as herding goats down the median of the Interstate Highways.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 19, 2025, 09:17 PM
QuoteWhat new offwhite swan wonders are in store that that remain hidden from lack of knowledge and/or confirmation bias?
Not many if any. Offwhite is the reason.
Each swan is a player in the substitution game. Conventional oil that in the early days was even artesian was replaced by a new swan that required fracking rock first and using drill rigs an order of magnitude more complex. This new fracking swan is a dirtier shade of white. Not quite as good or pure.
So then imagine the next white swan. If it is oil based it will be a darker yet shade of gray. No longer a white swan. Declining EROEI makes it a dirty grey swan.
Knowledge and confirmation bias. The world is described by mathematical relationships, and within these relationships, there is only so much possibility. A possibility that in reality is far short of what a Marvel Comic superhero can accomplish. Conservation of mass/energy and thermodynamics puts limits on what is possible.
That is not a confirmation bias, that is a fact.
* And Trump is not yet sworn in. Facts still mean something.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 19, 2025, 09:52 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Jan 18, 2025, 03:52 PMThe same reason people would take the published work of M. K. Hubbert and say he was absolutely right when those charts of his certainly don't look anything like the actual results?
That would be nobody here. You trapped yourself.
Hubbert predates your 'peak oilers' by about fifty years. Everybody knows Hubbersts data is dated. To not see that as fact would be simply stupid. Therefore MKH has only ever been acknowledgedin a qualitative way, and not in the quantitative way you claim. What you claim is logically impossible.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 19, 2025, 10:12 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 19, 2025, 04:49 PMNeosho at that time (2020ish) was an outlier for the area. We got lucky squeaking in through the last generation of well educated classes. It has gone to shit since that time.
I found this: Central Campus (https://www.neoshosd.org/9626_3)
A white buffalo of a school district. Something perhaps that survived from the days when public schools were good. Once they were if you lived in the right place. Thankfully I did.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 19, 2025, 10:43 PM
Most arguments stem from different ideas of the amount of mass available for limits to be applied to. When I drop a box of tacks I pick them up until I have them all back in the box. Then I keep looking for the one I missed. I always find another.
I didn't climb down from the Watchtower of Doom to stretch my legs, take a piss and get a bite to eat just to climb back up and do it again. I found out I was *gasp* wrong, and haven't deemed reality quite so concrete since then. The entertainment in Maya's Funhouse / Hall of Mirrors is watching what we clever little monkeys will come up with next!
Hahahaha - The Neosho Central Campus is the cooler for problem students. It does however get the trash out of the regular classrooms so that actual learning can take place. That's the idea anyway.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 19, 2025, 11:06 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 19, 2025, 10:43 PMHahahaha - The Neosho Central Campus is the cooler for problem students. It does however get the trash out of the regular classrooms so that actual learning can take place. That's the idea anyway.
That's a slightly different description than how they self-describe in Education Speak on their website:
The Neosho Central Campus, formerly known as Jefferson Street Campus, is dedicated to providing a safe place for students to thrive in an academic setting that is rigorous, interactive and meaningful. It has successfully served at-risk students since the 1996-1997 school year. Students who are at-risk of graduating are identified and referred through teachers, counselors, and administration of Neosho's main campus. Central Campus is home to five certified teachers who, with great heart and dedication, meet the educational needs of 50 students at any given time. Vacated seats on the Central Campus are filled immediately, as there is a waiting list. The enrollment process requires guardian and student participation with the understanding that students will experience stricter discipline policies along with higher attendance and grade expectations.
I'd be fascinated to know what they call academically rigorous? I wonder also what they pay the 5 lucky teachers who deal with the trash? With only 50 kids in the program also, that's a 10:1 ratio. That's amazing use of resources even by Special Ed standards. How many kids total in the regular HS program? What do they do with the kids on the waiting list?
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 20, 2025, 08:15 AM
QuoteThe entertainment in Maya's Funhouse / Hall of Mirrors is watching what we clever little monkeys will come up with next!
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 20, 2025, 08:18 AM
QuoteI'd be fascinated to know what they call academically rigorous? I wonder also what they pay the 5 lucky teachers who deal with the trash? With only 50 kids in the program also, that's a 10:1 ratio. That's amazing use of resources even by Special Ed standards. How many kids total in the regular HS program? What do they do with the kids on the waiting list?
RE
Yes, interesting. One page from the school district's website. Flim flam, or the tip of a great iceberg. Inquiring minds want to know.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 20, 2025, 08:42 AM
Quote from: TDoS on Jan 18, 2025, 03:52 PMThe same reason people would take the published work of M. K. Hubbert and say he was absolutely right when those charts of his certainly don't look anything like the actual results?
That would be nobody here. You trapped yourself.
Really? Well, I have been known to be wrong before, and probably have trapped myself before, but how about a demonstration as to why it hasn't happened on THIS topic?
Quote from: K-DogTherefore MKH has only ever been acknowledgedin a qualitative way, and not in the quantitative way you claim. What you claim is logically impossible.
I present....Hubbert happily doing the logically impossible quantatative representation of US oil production. Reference:Hubberts 1956 Paper - Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels (https://cmapspublic.ihmc.us/rid=1176076210219_852008754_13952/Hubbert1956.pdf) Figure 21. (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tyler-Priest/publication/279227641/figure/fig2/AS:618566080540680@1524489054475/Hubberts-1956-peak-oil-graph-Source-M-King-Hubbert-Nuclear-Energy-and-Fossil.png)
For an encore...Hubbert doing the impossible....a second time! For the world!
Yes K-Dog, Hubbert did quantatatively list his thoughts on VOLUMES of oil for the US and world. And they are both really, really, wrong.
Bigly.
Anything else we want to learn today?
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: K-Dog on Jan 20, 2025, 08:55 AM
QuoteYes K-Dog, Hubbert did quantatatively list his thoughts on VOLUMES of oil for the US and world. And they are both really, really, wrong.
Bigly.
Anything else we want to learn today?
You are in the cooler for 24 hours for being an idiot. You posted something that was drawn 75 years ago and you presented it as absolute fact. Deliberate obfuscation violates Diner rules.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 20, 2025, 11:45 AM
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 20, 2025, 04:35 PM
I don't do much arguing... I'll just ask K-Dog if he thinks population will continue to rise. I figure it has topped out at 8 billion, with no way of knowing how long it will plateau there. Knowing where someone stands on an issue is numero uno for dialogue.
I know when I'm wrong... I can't know for sure when someone else is. If I'm wrong that doesn't make the opposite correct... both may be wrong. Fuckin' swans :-D
Hubbert's graph peaks at 12.5 billion barrels a year. He just stopped the upward slope of the bell curve too soon. The real thing to be argued is when the top of the curve is / will be reached. I personally figure the west's reserves will decline (frak magic no more) at the same rate arctic/Russian oil will come on line. Decay in the west, progress in the ROW for a generation (13 - 20 years)
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 20, 2025, 05:09 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 20, 2025, 04:35 PMI don't do much arguing... I'll just ask K-Dog if he thinks population will continue to rise. I figure it has topped out at 8 billion, with no way of knowing how long it will plateau there. Knowing where someone stands on an issue is numero uno for dialogue.
Argument is a regular feature of the Diner. Generally we have strong opinions and we tend to defend them vigorously when a contrary opinion is expressed.
I'm not answering for Kdog, but I'm pretty sure we have a similar opinion. Globally, we are probably still increasing population, but barely. Fertility rates are dropping everywhere, so growth will probably turn negative within the decade. Population will then begin dropping slowly until we hit a systemic bump that interferes with food production or distribution, or a global pandemic, or global warfare either between countries or multiple civil wars and revolutions. Then there will be a rapid population drop 20% or more over a couple of years. 10-20 years at the outside IMHO.
Quote]I know when I'm wrong... I can't know for sure when someone else is. If I'm wrong that doesn't make the opposite correct... both may be wrong. Fuckin' swans :-D
If you know when you are right and the other person holds the opposite view, then you know he is wrong. Do you know when you're right?
QuoteHubbert's graph peaks at 12.5 billion barrels a year. He just stopped the upward slope of the bell curve too soon. The real thing to be argued is when the top of the curve is / will be reached. I personally figure the west's reserves will decline (frak magic no more) at the same rate arctic/Russian oil will come on line. Decay in the west, progress in the ROW for a generation (13 - 20 years)
Tdos is obsessed with demonstrating Hubbert and everyone else who predicted Peak Oil and collapse was wrong. So he quibbles over timeline issues that have been predicted. As things turned out, extend and pretend has kept BAU sputtering along the last 15 years, causing many people to believe we'll figure a way out of a crash. My opinion is it has just been delayed, and right now we see things starting to spin out of control again and an acceleration of the political, economic, climate and energy problems that will at some point reach critical mass. Exactly when is hard to pinpoint, so putting a timeline on it is tough. The main question these days since most of us here are geriatrics is whether rapid unravelling will happen before we ourselves are pushing up daisies. Not real important though, since whether it happens in 10 years or 50, it's coming.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 20, 2025, 09:02 PM
This is crucial - no, I don't KNOW when I'm right. As long as my viewpoint holds water I operate as if that's reality. Just like playing Cops and Robbers if you get a hole in you and fail to admit it no one will want to play with you after a while. On the webz and in meatspace I try to keep three maxims in mind: I don't know. I don't care. It doesn't matter.
Few things cannot honestly be put in at least one of those categories. It helps me stay polite ;-)
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 20, 2025, 11:12 PM
Interesting set of maxims to live by. I'm not in this club, as anyone who has read my material for a while knows. Let me address them each in turn.
#1- I don't know.
What is knowable and what is not? Can you know that 1+1=2? If a tree falls in the forest and you weren't there, can you know if it made a sound? If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, do you know it's a duck? You could make philosophical arguments that show you can't know these things for sure, but my POV is they all reach my test of being beyond reasnable doubt. So my POV is I know them as true, and you would need to present some really good arguments to convince me otherwise.
Of course, most things aren't quite so clear cut, but for every question out there, at a certain point I have enough evidence to make my own determination of the truth, and that's what I know. To change my mind, you have to present arguments that show me why I am wrong. I'm always interested to hear such arguments and examine them. At least as long as the arguments are presented respectfully without insults, obfuscation, ad hom attacks, strawmen, appeals to authority and bad faith. There are other things people will do in an argument to get it off track too, but those are the main ones I don't tolerate.
The Diner is supposed to be a place where people with a genuine interest in topics related to the collapse of industrial civilization can present their viewpoints and discuss them, in the effort to ferret out The Truth from the vast quantity of misinformation ejaculated on the net. So I welcome members who enjoy telling me what they know also. Then we can compare the differences to get a better understanding and hopefully get closer to the truth. At the end of the process, hopefully everyone knows a little more than when we began.
#2 I Don't Care
I have spent the last 15 years digging into this subject and written reams of material to examine what is going on. You don't spend that much time on something you don't care about. Kdog also has spent a long time immersed in the topic, he cares about it also. It's probably the most important question of our time, so it's hard for m to understand how so many people don't care about it.
#3 It doesn't matter
If the future of the planet and of the civilization of homo saps doesn't matter, what does? We may just be a fly speck in the universe and when we're gone nobody will be around to care, but WE ARE THE FLIES. So what happens does matter to us. Does what we say here matter? Well, since so few people read it, it doesn't matter to the vast majority of the global population, but it DOES matter to those of us who are members of this flyspeck on the internet on the flyspeck of the planet. If the Diner doesn't matter to you, why bother spending time chatting here?
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 21, 2025, 10:42 AM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jan 20, 2025, 08:55 AMYou are in the cooler for 24 hours for being an idiot. You posted something that was drawn 75 years ago and you presented it as absolute fact. Deliberate obfuscation violates Diner rules.
Jesus K-Dog you've got to be kidding.
While I understand that in this place I am stuck with the audience I got, I've taken EE classes and I know damn well people who can do that can at least THINK.
You asked for something and I damn well provided it. Hubbert's graphs of US and World oil ARE quantatative, and they are absolute fact, published in science journals, and his estimates are his estimates and if you don't like them that's fine. But you ASKED for his quantative and I provided it.
You don't like him having drawn them up in 1956? Not my problem. You don't like that those quantatative numbers don't match reality? Not my problem. He drew his line in the sand, and it worked in the US, through 1970. And then one day it didn't. This isn't political theory and relative concepts....he posts volumes and years. Compare those for the US or World to reality and there is only one conclusion that can be drawn. Once you get there, you can then "but but but" all you'd like, any way you'd like.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 21, 2025, 11:07 AM
He did. But he did it because, using the method he used and outlined in that paper, he HAD to. The volume output was the result of his independent variable, which was the presumed oil reserves and resources available. Without it being larger than it was, he couldn't get the peak higher.
It is one of the HUGE disadvantages of this method. Another is that a US free market development scheme is active, which is NOT the case for most countries.
Quote from: comrad simbaThe real thing to be argued is when the top of the curve is / will be reached.
It already has been, for the world anyway. Peak oil, the most current one, and #6 claimed or occurred this century, was 2018. We've been living in a post peak world for 7 years now. <yawn>
The record for the world living in the post peak era is closer to 15 years, as global peak oil in 1979 wasn't surpassed until somewhere in the 1993-1994 timeframe, if memory serves.
Quote from: comrade simbaI personally figure the west's reserves will decline (frak magic no more) at the same rate arctic/Russian oil will come on line. Decay in the west, progress in the ROW for a generation (13 - 20 years)
Hubbert's method wasn't about reserves, those numbers are way too small to generate any of the peaks he claimed. He needed to start with resources, and then work backward into reserves+resource numbers. As peakers all know, part and parcel of this is the reserve growth problem. That was figured out by the USGS more than a decade ago now, so one of the new things needed to do when trying to figure out global oil production is the resource to reserve conversion ratio. That work was completed by the EIA in the late 201X's, and the USGS was already using it in a less granular leve in 2012 for their World Assessment update of that year.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 21, 2025, 12:50 PM
RE - heh heh... I gotta make sure I don't get all heated up and start to ARGUE! For my maxims, not everything fits into all three categories - I specifically said "Few things cannot honestly be put in at least one of those categories." Opinion and belief are not verified facts so the bulk of stuff never makes it past I don't know. That's just me, anyway.
IMO, for the record. #1 applies to AGW. Global warming trend is upward - no argument there. #2 applies here as in hey man, if I gotta move north so be it. #3, It doesn't matter, is also sort operative here in that it is subjective ie, I don't own coastal real estate. Rather than OMG hair on fire megaphoning from a soapbox I entertain myself looking at maps and speculating on what goes under, how it may affect populations of animals (including humans) etc. Being interested is different from "caring". After all, I'm just killing time 'till time kills me.
TDos - I can't find a simple chart showing production of crude and nat gas from say the 80's to current. You got something handy? "It's not real 'till you can graph it!"
Off to the Trumpi threads. Gonna be a fun week, heh heh.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: TDoS on Jan 21, 2025, 03:14 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 21, 2025, 12:50 PMTDos - I can't find a simple chart showing production of crude and nat gas from say the 80's to current. You got something handy? "It's not real 'till you can graph it!"
Here is a link to the EIA international energy statistics.
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world
Click on "Data" tab. CLick on "Petroleum and other liquids" title. CLick on "Annual Oil Production and Other Liquids"
Go down a few lines and select "Crude Oil and Lease Condensate"
That strips out all the HGLs and liquids that aren't oil at the well volumes.
Little slider bar at the bottom scrolls back and forth, back to 1973 anywhere. Units are million barrels per day. 2023 was about 1 million barrels a day light of the peak annual volume in 2018.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 21, 2025, 06:45 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 21, 2025, 12:50 PM#2 applies here as in hey man, if I gotta move north so be it. #3, It doesn't matter, is also sort operative here in that it is subjective ie, I don't own coastal real estate. Rather than OMG hair on fire megaphoning from a soapbox I entertain myself looking at maps and speculating on what goes under, how it may affect populations of animals (including humans) etc. Being interested is different from "caring". After all, I'm just killing time 'till time kills me.
So basically what you are saying is that since these effects don't appear to directly affect you and your life, they don't matter to you and you don't care about it very much because of that.
There are however secondary effects and repurcussions that will affect you, and much more affect your son who you cared enough about to pick up and move to find a decent school where he might learn something.
You may not own real estate on the coast, but millions of people do and as various disasters hit their stretch of coastline or their valley which flash floods from an atmospheric river or wildfire, they'll become more homeless refugees some of who will end up pitching tents around your neighborhood where the parks will then become either unsafe or at least unpleasant to picnic at with all the refuse and piles of human feces and the smell of stale urine under the shade of the tree you liked to set up by.
Even if you don't get this particular blowback in your neighborhood because it's one of the ones with all the big houses with an HOA that employs private security to patrol and the cops sweep away the homeless, you don't care because you don't empathize with their plight?
If I have a maxim I live by, it was expressed best by John Donne:
PERCHANCE he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for him; and perchance I may think myself so much better than I am, as that they who are about me, and see my state, may have caused it to toll for me, and I know not that. The church is Catholic, universal, so are all her actions; all that she does belongs to all. When she baptizes a child, that action concerns me; for that child is thereby connected to that body which is my head too, and ingrafted into that body whereof I am a member. And when she buries a man, that action concerns me: all mankind is of one author, and is one volume; when one man dies, one chapter is not torn out of the book, but translated into a better language; and every chapter must be so translated; God employs several translators; some pieces are translated by age, some by sickness, some by war, some by justice; but God's hand is in every translation, and his hand shall bind up all our scattered leaves again for that library where every book shall lie open to one another. As therefore the bell that rings to a sermon calls not upon the preacher only, but upon the congregation to come, so this bell calls us all; but how much more me, who am brought so near the door by this sickness. There was a contention as far as a suit (in which both piety and dignity, religion and estimation, were mingled), which of the religious orders should ring to prayers first in the morning; and it was determined, that they should ring first that rose earliest. If we understand aright the dignity of this bell that tolls for our evening prayer, we would be glad to make it ours by rising early, in that application, that it might be ours as well as his, whose indeed it is. The bell doth toll for him that thinks it doth; and though it intermit again, yet from that minute that that occasion wrought upon him, he is united to God. Who casts not up his eye to the sun when it rises? but who takes off his eye from a comet when that breaks out? Who bends not his ear to any bell which upon any occasion rings? but who can remove it from that bell which is passing a piece of himself out of this world?
No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee. Neither can we call this a begging of misery, or a borrowing of misery, as though we were not miserable enough of ourselves, but must fetch in more from the next house, in taking upon us the misery of our neighbours. Truly it were an excusable covetousness if we did, for affliction is a treasure, and scarce any man hath enough of it. No man hath affliction enough that is not matured and ripened by and made fit for God by that affliction. If a man carry treasure in bullion, or in a wedge of gold, and have none coined into current money, his treasure will not defray him as he travels. Tribulation is treasure in the nature of it, but it is not current money in the use of it, except we get nearer and nearer our home, heaven, by it. Another man may be sick too, and sick to death, and this affliction may lie in his bowels, as gold in a mine, and be of no use to him; but this bell, that tells me of his affliction, digs out and applies that gold to me: if by this consideration of another's danger I take mine own into contemplation, and so secure myself, by making my recourse to my God, who is our only security.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 22, 2025, 03:40 PM
Son is going to buy a hacienda in Mexico or Ecuador in the next couple of years with a nice little Abuela Cassita in back so I can raise goats and turnips again. No, I don't give a flying fuck about 'merica as it is today, and if shtf before we escape, East Flannel Oregon is as good a place for a heavily armed white motherfucker like me to stand ground on as anyplace I can think of.
I'm an Epictetus fan, myself.
QuoteThe Enchiridion
By Epictetus
Written 135 A.C.E.
Translated by Elizabeth Carter
1. Some things are in our control and others not. Things in our control are opinion, pursuit, desire, aversion, and, in a word, whatever are our own actions. Things not in our control are body, property, reputation, command, and, in one word, whatever are not our own actions.
The things in our control are by nature free, unrestrained, unhindered; but those not in our control are weak, slavish, restrained, belonging to others. Remember, then, that if you suppose that things which are slavish by nature are also free, and that what belongs to others is your own, then you will be hindered. You will lament, you will be disturbed, and you will find fault both with gods and men. But if you suppose that only to be your own which is your own, and what belongs to others such as it really is, then no one will ever compel you or restrain you. Further, you will find fault with no one or accuse no one. You will do nothing against your will. No one will hurt you, you will have no enemies, and you not be harmed.
Aiming therefore at such great things, remember that you must not allow yourself to be carried, even with a slight tendency, towards the attainment of lesser things. Instead, you must entirely quit some things and for the present postpone the rest. But if you would both have these great things, along with power and riches, then you will not gain even the latter, because you aim at the former too: but you will absolutely fail of the former, by which alone happiness and freedom are achieved.
Work, therefore to be able to say to every harsh appearance, "You are but an appearance, and not absolutely the thing you appear to be." And then examine it by those rules which you have, and first, and chiefly, by this: whether it concerns the things which are in our own control, or those which are not; and, if it concerns anything not in our control, be prepared to say that it is nothing to you...
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 22, 2025, 05:22 PM
Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 22, 2025, 03:40 PMSon is going to buy a hacienda in Mexico or Ecuador in the next couple of years with a nice little Abuela Cassita in back so I can raise goats and turnips again. No, I don't give a flying fuck about 'merica as it is today, and if shtf before we escape, East Flannel Oregon is as good a place for a heavily armed white motherfucker like me to stand ground on as anyplace I can think of.
I'm an Epictetus fan, myself.
Given the fairly rapid progress of global cooking and the fact running A/C in countries with energy deficit will be problematic, I'm not sure it's the best location for a retirement casita.
Far as Epictetus is concerned, I'm not sure the things he classifies as in our control really are, and the ones he labels not can always be ignored. So it's not a real clear cut division. What are the "lesser" things not to be carried away with? At what point is something important enough to care about, even if it's not in your control? Property may not be in your control nor is taxation, but if your taxes are raised, the tendency is to care about that. Few people are at peace with having their taxes hiked up. Particularly when the taxes are used to fund something also not in their control that they don't agree with.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 22, 2025, 06:11 PM
QuoteAt what point is something important enough to care about, even if it's not in your control?
For that you wanna go pure Advaita Vedanta. Once you get to the point of seeing the illusory nature of personal volition and responsibility you set the paddle down and relax, adrift on a shoreless sea.
QuoteFew people are at peace with having their taxes hiked up. Particularly when the taxes are used to fund something also not in their control that they don't agree with.
Sharecropping, the landowner takes a cut. Ruled, the Monarch will have his share. Governed, the taxman will cometh. SHTF, the warlord will take what he needs. In simple terms, that's the nature of the social contract. Didn't you say something upthread about life not being fair? I am at peace.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 22, 2025, 10:07 PM
Nonsense. You're only at peace because currently the taxman's cut doesn't constitute an existential threat. Once it does, the only way you'll be at peace is dead. You either have to rebel and not pay up or you'll die.
A similar strategy is that of the ascetic or monk who takes a vow of poverty. If you're OK with having nothing but subsistence level shelter and food, you're free of the taxman because of math. Even a 100% tax can't touch you, because 100% of 0 is still 0. Knarf here chose the monastic life, although it's not necessary to be at zero income here in the FSoA, simply low enough to be below the poverty line. I have also done this for the last 25 years, keeping my income threshhold just below where once I took the standard deduction, I either owed $0 or I got an annual tax return, usually in the neighborhood of about $500. My income from SS and my pension comes to just $80 less than the maximum allowed by Medicaid to be eligible for that. For the 10 years prior to that I only worked part time, about 25 hours a week to keep myself at the poverty line.
However, you can't go lower than this and still not care and be at peace. If you're homeless, even if you're OK with living in a tent, the Gestapo won't let you do that, they'll show up one day and toss it in the dumpster. I've never had to face homelessness, the closest I came was after my divorce. I had my mom to fall back on though and ended up moving back home with her, after 6 months living in my van while I worked 2 jobs and worked on my Master's. I slept in the van and showered at the university gym.
Doomsteading is another method, but as you noted the schools out in the boonies ain't so great, so if you CARE about your kid's education, you gotta quit on it and move somewhere. This was in the sphere of something you could control, but you weren't at peace because your kid wasn't learning anything.
Stripping yourself down to be able to be at peace and be happy with just what you NEED rather than all the things you WANT is fairly difficult to do. You wanted a good education for your kid, but it wasn't an existential threat. You could have stayed on the Doomstead and homeschooled.
Anyhow, no biggy, we all compromise sometimes on our philosophy. Despite my Jonne Donne philosophy,there's a certain point at which I stop caring about a homeless person. After enough years on the street, drug addicted and alcoholic, he's beyond salvation. Kids in my 9th grade Physical Science class who couldn't do basic math and busied themselves disrupting the class fit into people I stopped caring about also. Nobody's Perfect, even Jesus. He got ticked off enough to throw over the tables of the banksters. He didn't have infinite patience. lol.
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: comrade simba on Jan 23, 2025, 05:01 PM
QuoteQuote from: comrade simba on Jan 22, 2025, 06:11 PM I am at peace.
Quote from: RE on Jan 22, 2025, 10:07 PMNonsense. You're only at peace because currently the taxman's cut doesn't constitute an existential threat. Once it does, the only way you'll be at peace is dead. You either have to rebel and not pay up or you'll die.
Anyone who thinks taxes are an existential threat needs to harden the fuck up.
I said I was, and gave you specific reasons why taxation never bugged me. And then you dismiss it as "nonsense". I'm putting you on "ignore" for the rest of the month. I don't have a cooler button.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 23, 2025, 05:23 PM
Currently here in America, they're not. However, in many societies over the millenia, the land owner would set the tax rate so high that when the harvest came in, after you paid the Crown its tax and the Tithe charged by the Church, there wasn't enough grain left over for the family to eat. You'd end up eating the seed corn and not have enough to plant the next season. Particularly if the King was at war and the treasury was bankrupt this would happen.
I said I was, and gave you specific reasons why taxation never bugged me. And then you dismiss it as "nonsense". I'm putting you on "ignore" for the rest of the month. I don't have a cooler button.
Well, now you know why we have the cooler. :) Sometimes you just don't want to deal with somebody who won't buy what you are selling. I can't just ignore people because the Diner is my responsibility. So when I need a break from what that person is trying to sell, I turn them off for a few days. But you are free to ignore me, I have no problem with that. :)
RE
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: Surly1 on Jan 26, 2025, 10:18 AM
QuoteQuote from: comrade simba on Jan 22, 2025, 06:11 PM I am at peace.
Quote from: RE on Jan 22, 2025, 10:07 PMNonsense. You're only at peace because currently the taxman's cut doesn't constitute an existential threat. Once it does, the only way you'll be at peace is dead. You either have to rebel and not pay up or you'll die.
Anyone who thinks taxes are an existential threat needs to harden the fuck up.
I said I was, and gave you specific reasons why taxation never bugged me. And then you dismiss it as "nonsense". I'm putting you on "ignore" for the rest of the month. I don't have a cooler button.
.
Boy, this thread is vintage RE. I told you what I was, I told you why, and then you turned around and called it nonsense. From the Greatest Hits collection.
Title: - We Are Living in the Pyrocene—At Our Peril
Post by: RE on Jan 26, 2025, 11:30 AM
Quote from: Surly1 on Jan 26, 2025, 10:29 AMBoy, this thread is vintage RE. I told you what I was, I told you why, and then you turned around and called it nonsense. From the Greatest Hits collection.