AI stocks currently taking a beating, inspired in all likelihood by the post-IPO cold feet of the early investors in SpaceX.  Perhaps this will act as a catalyst to pop the AI Bubble, which besides its dubious issues with Surveillance and Spying and Dumbing down of Homo Saps who use it to substitute for rather than augment Human Intelligence, also probably doesn't pay for itself when you factor in the GOBS of Energy & Water it consumes and damage to the environment.  Add to that the fact that 99.9% of the benefits of AI go to the 0.1% of the population that owns the companies doing the buildout.

RE

Lively day in Collapse!  In addition to the above highlights

Hello, this is Gail Krishnan writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to today's edition of CNBC's Daily Open.

On Wall Street, a rotation out of big tech dragged the S&P and Nasdaq lower. That offset more encouraging newsflow on Iran as the U.S. agreed to waive Iranian oil sanctions for 60 days.

Meanwhile, 10 Downing Street will soon get a new occupant, for the seventh time in 10 years.

Japan has long held the dubious honor of a revolving door of prime ministers. But on the 10th anniversary of Brexit, Britain is finding itself in increasingly familiar territory.

Another UK PM bites the dust! Now they can hold a referendum to Un-Brexit!

Iran is now officially ahhead of where they were before the war.  Chump has lifted the sanctions and they can sell their oil.

Elon already took out a $20B UNSECURED bridge loan to keep SpaceX floating.  Can't he just cover that out of his Petty Cash?  Oh, right, OPM.

RE

Trading at over 100 times trailing revenue while reporting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, SpaceX's valuation demands near-flawless execution.  SpaceX's accelerated lockup structure allows insider selling sooner than the traditional 180-day window, adding share-supply pressure to an already-stretched valuation.

A MEDIAN return of -32% for mega IPOs.  lol.  If SpaceX even comes in at -50% this year and investors only lose half their money they will be lucky.  If they have a buy & hold strategy, maybe they'll break even in 10 years.

This IPO had LOSER written all over it from the get go.

At roughly $2.4 trillion, investors are paying more than 100 times trailing revenue. That's a valuation that assumes years of near-flawless execution across rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence.

100X revenue with PERFECT execution over at least a decade?  When has Elon ever had perfect execution and met the targets he set at the beginning?  When and if anything he promises actually comes and works, it's still at least 5 years behind schedule.  Still waiting for those self-driving carz. But of course it never has to turn a profit, just keep splitting the stock and dragging in more investors and building more factories and the stock keeps going up.  Maybe he'll pull it off again with SpaceX, the market can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent.  Such is the game of Casino Capitalism.

RE

This club is not good, and I do not dismiss it.  I only point out that the rich are always getting together in exclusive groups, and have for a few centuries now.  I have a great great grandfather who had his own rail car in the 1880's and he was a 'Mason'.  He made a fortune by today's standards, gambled it away, retired to a retirement home run by the Mason's.  Escaped to make a new fortune and put my grandmother, his granddaughter through college, and he lived to be 107.  In my own life I have worked close enough to the rich to know they live in exclusive bubbles.  But despite all their exclusive clubs the rich can be beat at their own game as they are too lazy to really be smart.  All people have to do is organize.  Which sounds easy, but the rich are quite aware of this threat.

RE, you met my 'cousin' Todd when you were down here.  He has been working for Space-X in Redmond WA for a few years.  I called him the other day and asked if he was a millionaire yet.  Based on his response his 'options' are in that ball park.  That sounds about right.  I advised him to cash them out and explained that while some people have more money than I do, I am better positioned to survive a crash than someone with a million dollar portfolio. I do not do risk, but I still beat inflation.  Trading liquidity for a few percent but not trading significant risk.

I could do a You Tube channel about this and likely pick up a few thousand a year.  Doom investing, but unloading 18 wheeled trucks into a warehouse part time is way more badass.  And it pays enough with my best investment, Social Security, to leave my other investments alone.  The part time job is like having an extra half million invested at a decent interest rate.  Would an extra half million make me a millionaire?  I'm not going to say.

For those still in the game it appears that success in America now depends on how close you are to a billionaire.  Like the old song goes:

QuoteDon't you know about the new fashion, honey?  All ya need are looks and a whole lotta money.

Looks optional.  Forget making things, and providing services that people actually need.  Forget about trading time in honest labor for cash.  No,  America became a casino, and without the cheap drinks, and cheap food a casino should have.  And I am too old to gamble.

In America, if you are not extracting rent from somebody, you are nobody.  France was once this ugly.

I am SHOCKED!  Shocked I tell you.

I look forward to the inexorable slide to the depth of Davey Jones Locker as Investors look at the P/E ratio of Elon's sales job and their 401K retirement lifeboats start taking on water.  That's even not pricing in a market crash, in which case SpaceX will sink faster than the Titanic after plowing into the iceberg.

The savvy investors will of course be able to take solace in the fact that they generously stuffed the Muskrat's bank account with Billions of FRNs to fill the Trust Funds of his spawn, endless parties for the Supermodel moms and meager paychecks for the Phillipina Nannies who raise them.

Even in a best case scenario, it would take a decade for this White Elephant to turn a profit, and Elon already has plans to further line his pockets by issuing Bonds and loading the company up with debt based on the collateral of the spurious valuation of the stock.  After that, he can rehypothecate the debt by  mortgaging whatever satellites he actually gets into orbit, and then scam the taxpayers for a bailout before he has to face a bankruptcy filing.  Because of course SpaceX is ALREADY TBTF.

Only in Amerika.  Land of Opportunity for the morally and ethically bankrupt.


RE

And all the time that you were telling him that if he did not like it here he was welcome to start his own website.  Now he claims he had (years ago) / (or) has one now.  When I go there all I see a well constructed dead end.

Seems a different Wizard of Oz may have been on duty who did not have a complete handle on the historical narrative.  But no proof, I'm just sayin.  No crazy here.

I would add that in addition to all the offenses you listed, he also threw in his usual unrelated Peak Oil analogies and inaccurate characterization of my knowledge and experience.  All of those along with all the ones directed at you are just veiled insults he uses to try to undermine our credibility, since he consistently is unable to do it with an argument based on facts, logic, deduction and Common Fucking Sense.  Far as the "high net worth" shit goes, with you he does it to paint you as a hypocrite, with me it's the reverse to paint me as a failure.  Whether you have money or don't, if you don't hold his world view on the subject of personal wealth, he'll use it in an Ad Hom attack, again to undermine the credibility of the website.  Which in the end really only goes to show how credible our arguments are, because he can't do it following Robert's Rules.

I'll add a few days to this cooler trip for his pot shots at me and general violations of the CoC.

RE

https://www.days.so/

"This link is interesting, but it doesn't settle the matter. The burden of proof is on you, TDoS. You need to show a tangible connection to this.  Verifiable proof of work or a clear trail in the Wayback Machine. Right now, there is nothing.

Given our history, I'm putting the odds of you bullshitting us at 95/5. RE and I are real people.  If pressed, we can prove it. You, on the other hand, have always hidden behind anonymity. You've had every opportunity to send me your LinkedIn or professional credentials in a private message, but you haven't. You claim to have met RE years ago, yet you refuse to disclose who you actually are. Frankly, that's abusive and strange.