Considering rising crude oil prices, inflation risks, excessive stock valuations, and expectations for future interest-rate policy. The most likely outcome for next week is a modest market pullback.  Decline or pause after recent gains in the last couple of months.  A rally is less probable and would depend on new optimistic Trump manure appearing in the mainstream press.


Not to be doom an gloom, the odds of a lackluster rally is not one in seven thousand.  It is only one in five. 

 

Being that the probability of Trump bullshit is so high, the rally still has a 20% probability.




The Oracle of Delphi has issued her forecast for next week.

Quote from: RE on Jun 04, 2026, 05:09 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 04, 2026, 03:35 PMI can believe that. Doesn't mean I understand their use however.

Well, at least part of the reason you can't understand it is because you never tried them.

I got some good stuff for the dentistry thing. They helped with pain certainty. But my experience with users is hardly convincing of how great a deal it is. Starting with pops and booze.

Quote from: REHow would you know if you liked Kidneys if you never tried them?  Even better, how would you know if you liked sex if you never tried it?

Good thing I tried a little narcotics. Did good for pain. Made me woozy.

Quote from: REGenerally speaking, if you like Sex & Rock music, you'll like drugs.  Perhaps you don't like sex and/or rock, so drugs have no appeal for you.

Painting with a broad brush, while amusing, doesn't work on me. I am quite thrilled with sex and rock music, although nowadays I mix in everything from classical to country, the newer stuff doesn't do much for me though.

Quote from: REAnyhow, whatever the reason is, your inability to understand it probably goes back to childhood and you were grossed out by seeing people doing drugs or getting drunk and you couldn't understand it.

Methinks you project too much from the perspective of a city kid. Never saw anyone doing drugs, just pops and booze. Occasional moonshine in the holler. 

Quote from: REYou never got over that initial impression, never tried it and so it hardened into your current opinion, which is rather childish.

RE

Oh...I've seen your speculating on all sorts of topics, and how amusingly your use of IQ for actual experience works out sometimes. I loved your La Longue Carabine tales on peakoil.com, from experience gained while at summer camp.

I'll stick with a scientists perspective, thanks.  

Blackstone's private credit fund is capping investor withdrawals at half the demand

This is essentially the same as Banks closing their doors and not allowing withdrawals at the beginning of the Great Depression.  They are experiencing a Bank Run and are trying to slow it down.  Probleem is, that action actually created more panic.



Hedge Funds like Blackstone are the Banks of the rich class today, and they are beginning to PANIC.  Blackstone is one of the biggest, which will influence the investors in smaller funds.  If a full blown run on the private credit market gets underway, it inevitably will cause a financial crisis, particularly since the Bond Market is so unstable right now.  There's no safe haven for people trying to liquidate their investments.

Remember, as I said in a prior post, the only thing backing the Dollar is the "Full Faith & Credit of the FSoA".  A run on HFs is a critical sign that the rich have lost faith in the credit worthiness of the FSoA.  It's remarkable to me that it has taken this long, mainly because the monopoly on money creation is so comprehensive there's no alternative in the trade clearing biz besides the relatively new BRICS system.  Utilizing it would require exchanging Dollars for a BRICS currency, mainly Renminby.  That happening at any scale would be WWIII.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 04, 2026, 03:35 PMI can believe that. Doesn't mean I understand their use however.

Well, at least part of the reason you can't understand it is because you never tried them.  How would you know if you liked Kidneys if you never tried them?  Even better, how would you know if you liked sex if you never tried it?

As a child, most kids when they see a couple of adults French Kissing are grossed out. "Eeeewwww!"  it seems alien and disgusting.  Later when they mature and get some sexual feelings and try masturbating, they start to understand and it's not so gross anymore.  Drugs are very much the same in terms of the feelings they engender, which is where the phrase "Sex, Drugs & Rock & Roll" comes from.  Generally speaking, if you like Sex & Rock music, you'll like drugs.  Perhaps you don't like sex and/or rock, so drugs have no appeal for you.

Anyhow, whatever the reason is, your inability to understand it probably goes back to childhood and you were grossed out by seeing people doing drugs or getting drunk and you couldn't understand it.  You never got over that initial impression, never tried it and so it hardened into your current opinion, which is rather childish.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 04, 2026, 03:11 PMAs things progress, honesty about America's financial condition will be hard to find.[/color]

Well, for as many decades, centuries and millennium Apocalyptians have been around, I can only venture....what took so long to get to the point of....MAYBE this time?
,
Psst....are there that many of us left to even notice? 🧐

Quote from: RE on Jun 04, 2026, 12:59 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 03, 2026, 02:37 PMFloor hands and booze I get, smoking, sure, but the big type drugs among those generally considered intelligent?

This sentence implies you think people who do "big time" drugs are generally stupid.

"Stupid" isn't the right pejorative. Part of my off-kilter perspective with folks doing drugs is I don't understand it. The need for whatever it is to NOT be coherent strikes me as...alien.

Quote from: REI presume BT Drugs besides Coke include Opiates and Amphetamines, not sure if you include Hallucinogenics and Barbituates, Valium, Qualudes etc.

If they are needed for getting over surgeries and stuff I understand them. I had a root canal once that required some strong sold on the street for big bucks type drug. Can't say how I felt on it was anything special.

Quote from: REHowever, regardless of which classes of drugs you perceive to be BT, whether you do them or not has little to do with how smart or stupid you are.

Good thing I never said anything like that then.

Quote from: REAll drugs you take recreationaly carry the risk of at least a psychological dependency developing, even if they are not physically addicting, but in general the number of people who become dependent on any recreational drug is much smaller than the number who use them  without it significantly affecting their lives.

I can believe that. Doesn't mean I understand their use however.

Quote from: REAlcohol for instance, far more people drink socially than there are alcoholics.  Most of the traders at Drexel who sniffed coke were within reasonable bounds, though a few  lost control and ended up in rehab.  Much fewer than the number doing coke though, maybe 1 in 20 as a WAG.

Yeah, I don't drink either. I leave that to the folks or like it or need it or whatever.

Quote from: REAnyhow, smart people like drugs pretty much the same way and for the same reasons stupid people do.\
RE

Seems reasonable....not knowing what those reasons are or caring at all. But interestingly, during my time on this globe, I've never had serious problems with sober folks other than maybe a car accident or something. Boozed up or drunk ones? All sorts of trouble, trips to court, firearms being discharged, lawsuits, and so on and forth.

Another one of those weird correlations perhaps, like you never having insurance and getting away with it, and me always having it and occasionally needing it...in some cases because of those stoned, whacked or drunk smart non-smart people.

A crash will happen.  Is this tremor a prelude to an earthquake?





Are billionaires approaching peak prosperity?

As things progress, honesty about America's financial condition will be hard to find.

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 03, 2026, 02:37 PMFloor hands and booze I get, smoking, sure, but the big type drugs among those generally considered intelligent?

This sentence implies you think people who do "big time" drugs are generally stupid.  I presume BT Drugs besides Coke include Opiates and Amphetamines, not sure if you include Hallucinogenics and Barbituates, Valium, Qualudes etc.

However, regardless of which classes of drugs you perceive to be BT, whether you do them or not has little to do with how smart or stupid you are.  All drugs taken recreationally (as in not taken to remdy an illness) have in common that they are mood altering.  Whether you enjoy altering your moods utilizing pharmaceuticals and how a particular type of drug alters them isn't a function of your intelligence, it's a function of your personality type.  Perhaps you're generally inhibited or "uptight" and the drug loosens you up.  Perhaps your lethargic and it makes you more active.  Perhaps you are a conventional thinker and you get different insights.  whatever the drug does, if you enjoy the experience, you'll continue using the drug.

All drugs you take recreationaly carry the risk of at least a psychological dependency developing, even if they are not physically addicting, but in general the number of people who become dependent on any recreational drug is much smaller than the number who use them  without it significantly affecting their lives.  Alcohol for instance, far more people drink socially than there are alcoholics.  Most of the traders at Drexel who sniffed coke were within reasonable bounds, though a few  lost control and ended up in rehab.  Much fewer than the number doing coke though, maybe 1 in 20 as a WAG.

Anyhow, smart people like drugs pretty much the same way and for the same reasons stupid people do.  The biggest difference is smart people who are also rich can afford to do a lot more of them, so that probably puts them at greater risk of developing a dependency.  Most though are smart enough not to go down that road.

RE

Oops, sorry, I accidentally overwrote your post instead of replying to it.  Feel free to rewrite it, I won't delete it.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 03, 2026, 02:37 PM

Quote from: RE on Jun 02, 2026, 09:47 PMHowever, yes most certainly on any given day in the bathroom at Drexel for every trader that went in there to take a piss, half a dozen went in to stuff their noses with enough blow to build an igloo.  lol.
RE

Having never worked with scientists, engineers, economists, industry or government types who did this, I am unfamiliar with the ....why? Floor hands and booze I get, smoking, sure, but the big type drugs among those generally considered intelligent? An alien environment to me.

It's the nature of the personality type driven to do this type of work.  It's fast pace, high stress, high risk, high excitement and very ego driven.  The type of personality that likes to do stuff like rock climbing and base jumping in a wingsuit.  Adrenaline & Endorphin Junkies.


It's also about the social scene around clubs and sex, which requires gobs of money to participate in for most males who are not GQ models. The money buys the coke which you stuff up the girls nose before stuffing the other orifices of their bodies with parts of your anatomy or a variety of vibrating devices available on Amazon.  The only people inhabiting this scene are pro athletes, musicians, actors, IT entrepreneurs, venture capitalist and traders.  Occasionally Pro Poker players.  The last 3 types all are at least 2 sigma smart the athletes 2 sigma physical ability, actors 2 sigma pretty.

RE