Quote from: K-Dog on May 24, 2026, 08:53 PMThe Phoney War was an eight-month period at the start of World War II, from September 1939 to May 1940, during which there were virtually no Allied military land operations on the Western Front.

I find it hard to call the kind of conflict we see lately a "War".  It's more like a Siege utilizing Terror Bombing.  The objective isn't to kill enemy soldiers as much as it is to destroy infrastructure and economically starve the opponent into capitulation.  Generally, the side with the better delivery systems for the bombs who has more of them will win over the long term, but as this conflict is showing now, it may not always remain true.

The best delivery system for bombing since WWII has been Aerial Bombardment using expensive airplanes and missiles.  The advent of Cheap Unmanned Drones has brought a great delivery system for bombing within the financial reach of even relatively poor states and even non-state actors.  As long as your bombs can reach and destroy critical infrastructure delivering energy, communications, food & water to the target population, you can compete in such a conflict as long as you can outlast your opponent's tolerance for economic disruption.

The poorer the state is to begin with, the less they have to destroy and the more capable the people are of living without it once it's bombed.  Cubans can last far longer without the lights on in Havana than any city in the FSoA could last.  If the community of ex-Pat Cubans here started using drones to bomb say transformers in Miami to knock out power, the current blockade would get a lot tougher to sell.  However, unlike Iran, Cuba is small and isolated, so a full scale invasion would be undertaken.  Also, many of the ex-Pat Cubans are rabid anti-Commies who actually root for regime change.

Ukraine's battle against Russia is a better example.  They're not isolated, getting support from nearby NATO countries.  Though smaller than Russia, it's not as big a difference of FSoA vs. Cuba.  Their Cheap Drones are allowing them to do almost as much damage to Russia's Oil exporting capability as Russia's missiles and air force can do to Ukraine.

Iran has the HUGE geographical advantage of it's proximity to the Global Energy Chokepoint of Hormuz to be able to threaten the ENTIRE WORLD with energy & food starvation, and all they need to do it are cheap drones, unmanned robotic mines (Dolphins) & torpedos, speedboats and short range shoulder fired laser guided missiles.  As long as they can deal with the power being out most of the time and have access to food and water coming in over land, they're fine.  The rest of the world has less tolerance for globl recession, unemployment and inflation than they have for living by candlelight.

I don't think most of our military planners and strategists understand this new dynamic very well yet, and the legacy militaries of the FSoA, Russia and China haven't yet adapted to it.  It's going to radically change the balance of power as the use of the cheap drones spreads.  I definitely forsee the use of drones here inside the borders of the FSoA as the global conflicts over energy and food become more intense.  Perhaps as soon as next year.  Time will tell.

RE

The Iranians, of course, immediately disputed this characterization, and by the next day, Trump was backpedaling. "If I make a deal with Iran," he posted this afternoon, "it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon." The agreement that was only a day earlier "largely negotiated" was now only a notional memorandum, and Trump griped that it was unfair to criticize it because "nobody has seen it, or knows what it is," and it "isn't even fully negotiated yet."

As usual, you heard it here 1st!  As I predicted, the so-called "agreement" was merely a memo of shit to discuss in future as yet unscheduled meetings while the "ceasefire" keeps firing and a couple of Chinese boats trickle thru Hormuz each day.  IOW, same shit tomorrow as yesterday.  Not that you need a Ph.D. in Foreign Affairs to work this stuff out.  The journalists must get a good laugh every time he posts up his bullshit on Truth Social.

Upshot is we have a minimum of AT LEAST 60 days before any decent quantity of oil, LNG & fertilizer starts moving, which takes us to August.  That means for all practical purposes, this year's crop in the Northern Hemisphere will be reduced by somewhere between 20-50%.  Remember there's also a Super El Nino and droughts expected.

Now the only question is how long before things get really ugly?


RE

Quote from: TDoS on May 24, 2026, 07:09 AMI get banned for daring to question herdthink among the faithful.

No, you get banned because you are a narcissistic, self important jackass.  Your entire existence on the net is one long, non-stop brag about how much you know about the oil industry.  It's your claim to fame which you only interupt long enough to sneer at other oil experts who are more famous than you and get quoted more often than you do.  Nobody really cares what you think here or how much money you make or how many EVs you have, we only tolerate your presence because you are the perfect example of the kind of scumbag that makes this country such an awful place to be associated with.  The ultimate example of the Ugly Amerikan.



RE

Quote from: RE on May 22, 2026, 08:47 PM

Quote from: TDoS on May 22, 2026, 06:08 PMYou have an objection to someone hiring actual experts?

No., I have an objection over someone reversing his arguments from one post to the next.

Oh please. You might specialize in knowing this topic from personal interest, but I have explained what and why I do what I do, and why the long time doomers are of professional interest.

I educate, I tease, I test. I get banned for daring to question herdthink among the faithful. <shrug>

You wanted to get paid for pitching doom on a website similar to how some others seemed to have accomplished, as you've mentioned on that wordpress site of yours. A tangible result of your interest in doom. I get paid for knowing things in my niche, and when the internet came along that ended up including all the half baked arguments, misrepresentations, presumptions from a position of ignorance, ill-conceived nonsense that touched topics in my area of expertise.

I see no confusion here as to why I hang out on the internet for entertainment, joke material (while attempting to seperate the serious from the un-serious so as to know who to focus on) to weave into a professionals tale of how hydrocarbon resource depletion plays out, when, where and how.

I don't do boring academic presentations. I've got one scheduled in 2 weeks, working on it now. You once wanted a tangible result of your personal interest. I acquired it almost by accident. I credit the difference to mostly perspective. Yours is that of an educated enthusiast, mine is that of a professional scientist. No incongruity between why I do what I do online, and how I use it professionally.

Quote from: REYou can't have it both ways.

Depends on wht you beleive "it" is.

Quote from: REYou argue like Trumpolini....It just demonstrates your hypocrisy.

Quote from: TDoSI told all the peakoil.com folks everything that wasn't propritary for years for free. 

This is completely accurate, regardless of whether or not you like the statement. I lectured for years on why they hadn't thought it through. You object because obviously a "troll" knew more than the combined might of what was once a vibrant website, the combined ability of which was to be stump stupid because they couldn't even be bothered to THINK when I gave them directions on how to become informed.

As I said before, the internet has taught me quite a bit about people in general, and those inclined towards doom specifically.

Quote from: Chump
Donald Trump, the head of the U.S. terrorist state, said the final details of the deal with Iran are being discussed.

The check is in the mail.🙄

RE

A deal could end a conflict that has choked global energy markets and pushed U.S. inflation to its highest level in years. "An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries," Trump said in a social media post. The agreement includes a memorandum of understanding as a first phase, Iran's foreign ministry said, before broader talks within 30 to 60 days.

Yea, right.  What does IRAN say?

Iran's Fars news agency reported the Strait ⁠of Hormuz would remain under Iran's management, according ⁠to ‌the latest ⁠exchanged text between Iran and ‌the U.S. The report dismissed ‌Trump's ⁠announcement of reopening ⁠the ⁠strait as part of a "largely ‌negotiated" deal as "incomplete and inconsistent with reality."

Reading between the lines, the "deal" is just the "memo of understanding" which states that they'll keep talking about it and keep disagreeing on the fundamental points.  Iran at some point MIGHT agree not to work on nuke weapons, but they will not do that unless at least $100B in war reparations are paid and ALL sanctions are lifted AND they can collect tolls on Hormuz.  Those are conditions Trumpolini can't agree to without looking like a total fool.  Which he is of course.   He also is in desperate need of a reality check.

Don't count on ships lighting up their Bunker Fuel burners and steaming out of Hormuz loaded with Oil anytime soon.

RE