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#31
The American economy / Treasury yields surge as globa...
Last post by RE - Apr 20, 2026, 02:59 AM
Treasury yields surge as global buyers retreat from U.S. debt
U.S. Treasury yields are climbing sharply as geopolitical tensions, a $1.9 trillion deficit, and waning foreign demand undermine their safe-haven status.
File this under "you heard it here first".
I mentioned a week or so ago that the Chinese were likely to exercise the "nuclear option" and start dumping USTs, and lo & behold, that's exactly what's happening. This could rapidly become a serious problem if da fed has to monetize the debt, which seems pretty unavoidable. Hyperinflation in that scenario.
Another RE prediction comes to pass. 😀
RE
#32
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 19, 2026, 03:18 PMQuote from: K-Dog on Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.
By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.
New pipelines might relieve the oil transport some, won't do much for fertilizer though. How many people will be left after 5 years of fertilizer shortages?
RE
#33
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.
By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.
By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.
#34
Peak oil / The Hormuz get out of jail car...
Last post by RE - Apr 19, 2026, 12:00 PM
The Hormuz get out of jail card turned to a grave
For decades the IRGC relied on its ability to threaten closure of the Strait of Hormuz as its premier economic shield and golden get out of jail card. Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products normally transit the strait.
That volume accounts for one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne traded oil. Yet the destinations of those flows expose the asymmetry that ultimately doomed the strategy.
Here's a wild new projection for the result of the closure of the Hormuz straight! This guy figures it's a doomed strategy since alternate routes will be built to move the oil and the FSoA will up its exports to cover the global shortfall inside a year or so. By 5 years everything is back to normal and Iran is marginalized. In a decade the regime collapses.
Most entertaining is that he thinks Trumpolini is a forward thinking strategic GENIUS!!! 🤪
"The Hormuz closure wasn't a surprise to any serious person, one might argue Trump turned what the enemy believed to be a leverage to a ticking time bomb trap the IRGC just walked into.
IRGC was never the end goal, China is."
Opinions welcome.
RE
#35
Trump Fascism / Raw aggresion, Trump war crime...
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 19, 2026, 10:25 AM
US warships fled Hormuz after IRGC's warning? Iran releases footage of standoff
The episode, captured in footage aired by Iran's state broadcaster IRIB, claimed to show a radio exchange between Iranian naval forces and a US Navy destroyer.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz over US blockade and fires on ships
The strait is closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy said Saturday night.
Backlash.
That is something everyone can understand.You move a leaver or turn a wheel and nothing happens if things are loose, if parts don't fit right.
So it is with oil tankers which only move as fast as a bicycle moves. The straight of Hormuz was closed over a month ago, but the tankers that were in motion continued to move. Only now are they not arriving in Europe.
The mathematical models describing this can result in bifurcations and chaotic behavior.
#36
Crazy times / And the moon be in the 7th hou...
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 19, 2026, 09:07 AMNo hippie chick here.
TASNIMNEWS.IR • 2026-04-19
Iran's war was due to Epstein's case, Netanyahu became the cause of war
The former vice president said Netanyahu had led Trump to war with Iran, a war that the American people hate.
She is a little late to the game with that conclusion. But better late than never. And from the same website the nuclear fatwa is explained.
TASNIMNEWS.IR • 2026-04-14
Rereading the nuclear fatwa of Imam Shahid
The right to life, human dignity, justice and the right to peace are among the theoretical foundations of the nuclear fatwa of the martyr Ayatollah Khamenei.
Yeah, blowing random people away you have never met, and who have done you any harm is a No-No in most religions. The big guy upstairs does not like that sort of thing..
As Christian Nationalists actually have no religion, and are instead a cult with all the mindless obedience from broken people that entails, they are only driven by base knee-jerk tribal instincts, and are limited by that fact. They have nothing to do with anything spiritual and the 'bigger picture.'
Some of them want to use you
Some of them want to get used by you
Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused
Iran's war was due to Epstein's case, Netanyahu became the cause of war
The former vice president said Netanyahu had led Trump to war with Iran, a war that the American people hate.
She is a little late to the game with that conclusion. But better late than never. And from the same website the nuclear fatwa is explained.
Rereading the nuclear fatwa of Imam Shahid
The right to life, human dignity, justice and the right to peace are among the theoretical foundations of the nuclear fatwa of the martyr Ayatollah Khamenei.
Yeah, blowing random people away you have never met, and who have done you any harm is a No-No in most religions. The big guy upstairs does not like that sort of thing..
As Christian Nationalists actually have no religion, and are instead a cult with all the mindless obedience from broken people that entails, they are only driven by base knee-jerk tribal instincts, and are limited by that fact. They have nothing to do with anything spiritual and the 'bigger picture.'
Some of them want to use you
Some of them want to get used by you
Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused
#37
Peak oil / Bye Bye to La La Land
Last post by RE - Apr 19, 2026, 06:56 AM
The Bigger Energy Lesson Behind Iran’s Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
Oil takes big swings up and down on the basis of President Trump’s latest Truth Social post. Today’s announcement from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic boosted the stock market and sent oil prices tumbling.
Still, the direction further out remains murky. But the answer may be right in front of us: long-term structural volatility. The world has woken up to a new baseline of instability in the Middle East that won't go away so long as the current regime in Iran remains and the country can control or simply block the Strait of Hormuz. And that instability is bound to create price volatility.
Forget the volatility in oil prices. Wait until the shortfalls in FOOD PRODUCTION start showing up next year. The volatility won't just be in the markets. It will be in the streets.
RE
#38
Crazy times / He belongs in a tavern and now...
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 19, 2026, 01:29 AM
Did Pete Hegseth just quote Pulp Fiction during a Pentagon worship service?
It seems the secretary of war's Bible verse is from the book of... Tarantino?
Ezekiel 25:17 states that God will execute great vengeance upon those who have wronged His people, and they will know that He is the Lord when He lays His vengeance upon them.
Now what Pete does not understand is that 'His people' are not aggressors. The aggressors are not the weak or the blessed or the peacemakers, and certainly not the sons of god.
Now it could mean this and it could meant that, but needless to say. Pete is the weak.
#39
Trump Fascism / Raw aggresion, Trump war crime...
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 19, 2026, 01:08 AM
Iranian Official Warns Talks May Collapse over Trump’s Bluffs
A senior Iranian official told CNN that some of Trump’s assertions are “alternative facts.”
"While Iran is committed to a result-oriented diplomatic process," the US could be "using diplomacy to exhaust diplomacy and planning a new aggression, which Iran is ready to forcefully respond."
#40
Peak oil / Oil Slides but the Real Test C...
Last post by RE - Apr 18, 2026, 06:00 PM
Oil Slides but the Real Test Comes This Weekend
Oil markets are fixated on this weekend’s second round of US-Iran talks, with hopes rising for a negotiated end to the Strait of Hormuz’s 45-day blockade. Iran’s announcements that navigation through Hormuz is open come after Trump managed to seal a shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, sending ICE Brent below $90 per barrel again. The negotiations in Islamabad will be oil’s ‘make it or break it’ moment, as any failure would amplify the IEA’s warnings of impending fuel shortages and demand collapse.
With the price dropping to $80 on the Ceaseless Fire, I think you can officially say Demand Destruction has already begun. A lot of the world simply can't afford to buy oil at $100+/bbl. Not getting enough bids.
RE