Counting on a fool(s) to make America great again was not smart.




Pepe Escobar on US-Iran Ceasefire, Yemen, and Geopolitics (April 20, 2026)

The Ceasefire is "Hanging by a Thread"

Following a US naval attack on an Iranian cargo ship in international waters, the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is hanging by a thread. Pepe Escobar, the renowned Brazilian geopolitical analyst, assesses that the Trump regime has no strategy whatsoever. He characterizes the US leadership as being directed by "a psychopathic sociopath with acute dementia, and a drunken former platoon commander in Iraq."

An Act of War with No Justification

Escobar argues that the attack on the Iranian cargo ship is unequivocally an act of war and a clear violation of the ceasefire. Crucially, he notes there is no justification for this attack, because even if the ship had been carrying arms or jet fuel, it would not violate international law. As the victim of aggression, Iran retains the full legal right to seek help from friendly states for its defense.

The Red Sea & Yemen's Role

In response to rising tensions, Iran's government has threatened to call on its Yemeni ally, Ansarallah (the Houthis), to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait—a crucial chokepoint for global maritime commerce. Escobar, who visited Yemen in 2022, was deeply impressed by the Ansarallah leadership, noting their strong moral, ethical, and spiritual commitment to defending Gaza. While Ansarallah forces have been relatively quiet for the past six weeks, they remain a potent potential factor in the conflict.

China's Calculated Stance

China has officially expressed concern over the renewed instability around the Bab el-Mandeb, advocating for an immediate ceasefire and insisting the waterway remain open for normal passage. However, Escobar notes that China is a "master of understatement." While they maintain good relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia (their primary oil supplier), China is not dependent on the Bab el-Mandeb or Strait of Hormuz, thanks to alternative pipelines from Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Myanmar, plus extensive domestic production.

China's Primary Interest: Keeping the Strait Open

Despite projecting an image of impartiality in public, China's primary, concrete concern is ensuring the Bab el-Mandeb strait remains open for international maritime commerce. Any disruption to shipping through that strategic waterway would negatively impact China's economic interests, even if their energy supplies are diversified.

With Americans focused on Donald Trump's deeply unpopular war against Iran, far too few Americans are focusing on another disastrous Trump idea: increasing the Pentagon's budget to a colossal $1.5tn. Just as Trump's Iran war has hurt millions of Americans by sending gas prices skyward, Trump's supersized Pentagon budget will hurt millions of Americans because Trump, to help finance that budget, is pushing for painful cuts in health, education, and housing programs.

Regardless of how many social programs are cut, the only way this could ever be financed is by debt monetization.  The Chinese won't dribble out their mountain of USTs, they'll spray them on the market wholesale with a firehose.  Given His Trumpness low popularity and political capital, there's little chance of this budget going thru as proposed, but what it will do is lock up the CONgress Critters in fruitless jawboning, nothing will get done and we'll have yet another budget crises, this time maybe ending in a default to really trash the value of the dollar.

Hard to imagine how one man could possibly have done more to destroy what was left of Amerika in such a short period of time than The Donald.  Osama Bin Ladin as POTUS would be less destructive.

RE

 Carlson delivered that comment in a conversation with Buckley Carlson, his brother and a former Trump speechwriter, on The Tucker Carlson Show on Monday that reviewed the sidelining of traditional conservative values in a Republican party now dominated by the president.  "You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time – I will be," Tucker Carlson said. "And I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people. It was not intentional, that's all I'll say."

Too bad he didn't get this epiphany a couple of years ago. 😒 Ranks pretty high on ways Trumpolini could have been stopped.

RE

This reflects Kyiv's determination to deny Putin a windfall as global oil prices surge amid the US-Israeli war against Iran. Prior to the outbreak hostilities in the Middle East, the Russian economy was widely thought to be under severe strain. During the first two months of 2026, oil and gas revenues plummeted by 47 percent, while mounting sanctions pressures and runaway defense spending were taking a heavy toll.

It's definitely looking more & more like WWIII and less & less like regional conflicts.  Really, about all it would take now to make it official is for the Chinese to move on Taiwan, although you could say they already have with their blockade in the south China Sea.

Unfortunately, if the agricultural yields this year come in as low as likely from lack of fertilizer, I wouldn't be surprised if somebody doesn't blow off a nuke sometime next year.

The rubber meets the road on the Collapse Highway.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 20, 2026, 05:46 PMIsn't this what the government has been doing already, for the $30+ trillions we've already borrowed? We print money, hand it out, and put it on the countries tab?

No, not really.

When the FSoA wants to borrow money, it goes to Da Fed (a theoretically separate corporation, not a department of Da Goobermint) and asks for it, like you would ask for a loan at the bank.  To get that loan, you have to offer up collateral, which are the USTs.  What are they worth?  To find out, you sell them on the open market.  You've heard of treasury auctions, right?  What they sell for determines the interest rate, the price runs inversely to the yield.  The lower the price, the higher the interest.

When a big holder of USTs (like the Chinese) starts selling their supply, the interest rate goes up.  If they flood the market, the sky's the limit there.  The risk in holding them to maturity has gone up so there are not enough buyers.

At this point, the only option is for Da Fed itself to buy the USTs,  without any collateral.  Now nobody knows what the USTs are really worth, or by extension what the dollars they back are worth.  The more you print this way, the less they trade for, until they're worthless.  AKA, Hyperinflation.

RE   

Isn't this what the government has been doing already, for the $30+ trillions we've already borrowed? We print money, hand it out, and put it on the countries tab?

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 20, 2026, 03:04 PMWhat is "the Fed monetizing the debt" signify? I'm  not sure I know what that means, "monetizing debt".

Basically, it means issuing a debt instrument without having collateral to borrow against.  Money is a debt instrument, it's a note of infinite duration.  To do it, Da Fed issues USTs and buys them with money it prints rather than selling them to other banks and investors.  They have to do that because they don't have enough buyers for the debt on the open market.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 20, 2026, 02:59 AMI mentioned a week or so ago that the Chinese were likely to exercise the "nuclear option" and start dumping USTs, and lo & behold, that's exactly what's happening.  This could rapidly become a serious problem if da fed has to monetize the debt, which seems pretty unavoidable.  Hyperinflation in that scenario.

Another RE prediction comes to pass. 😀[/color]

RE

What is "the Fed monetizing the debt" signify? I'm  not sure I know what that means, "monetizing debt".

When the Japanese invaded Manchuria, people talked about the 'war in China.' When Germany invaded Poland in September 1939, well, that was 'the Polish War.' Then, the Winter War at the end of the same year was 'the war in Finland' as Finland was invaded by the Soviet Union," the source commented.

Much more to come.

RE