Quote from: TDoS on Apr 20, 2026, 03:04 PMWhat is "the Fed monetizing the debt" signify? I'm  not sure I know what that means, "monetizing debt".

Basically, it means issuing a debt instrument without having collateral to borrow against.  Money is a debt instrument, it's a note of infinite duration.  To do it, Da Fed issues USTs and buys them with money it prints rather than selling them to other banks and investors.  They have to do that because they don't have enough buyers for the debt on the open market.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 20, 2026, 02:59 AMI mentioned a week or so ago that the Chinese were likely to exercise the "nuclear option" and start dumping USTs, and lo & behold, that's exactly what's happening.  This could rapidly become a serious problem if da fed has to monetize the debt, which seems pretty unavoidable.  Hyperinflation in that scenario.

Another RE prediction comes to pass. 😀[/color]

RE

What is "the Fed monetizing the debt" signify? I'm  not sure I know what that means, "monetizing debt".

When the Japanese invaded Manchuria, people talked about the 'war in China.' When Germany invaded Poland in September 1939, well, that was 'the Polish War.' Then, the Winter War at the end of the same year was 'the war in Finland' as Finland was invaded by the Soviet Union," the source commented.

Much more to come.

RE

China is selling Treasurys at rates unseen since 2008, while Japan's yields hit multi-decade highs, signaling a structural shift in global capital flows. The resulting pressure threatens the dollar's purchasing power, fuels inflation risks, and may force the Federal Reserve into controversial debt monetization.

File this under "you heard it here first".

I mentioned a week or so ago that the Chinese were likely to exercise the "nuclear option" and start dumping USTs, and lo & behold, that's exactly what's happening.  This could rapidly become a serious problem if da fed has to monetize the debt, which seems pretty unavoidable.  Hyperinflation in that scenario.

Another RE prediction comes to pass. 😀

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 19, 2026, 02:13 PMIn a decade the regime collapses.
By that time Earth will be like cockroaches on Mars.

New pipelines might relieve the oil transport some, won't do much for fertilizer though.  How many people will be left after 5 years of fertilizer shortages?

RE

That volume accounts for one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne traded oil.  Yet the destinations of those flows expose the asymmetry that ultimately doomed the strategy.

Here's a wild new projection for the result of the closure of the Hormuz straight!  This guy figures it's a doomed strategy since alternate routes will be built to move the oil and the FSoA will up its exports to cover the global shortfall inside a year or so.  By 5 years everything is back to normal and Iran is marginalized.  In a decade the regime collapses.

Most entertaining is that he thinks Trumpolini is a forward thinking strategic GENIUS!!! 🤪

"The Hormuz closure wasn't a surprise to any serious person, one might argue Trump turned what the enemy believed to be a leverage to a ticking time bomb trap the IRGC just walked into.

IRGC was never the end goal, China is."


Opinions welcome.

RE

Backlash.

That is something everyone can understand.You move a leaver or turn a wheel and nothing happens if things are loose, if parts don't fit right. 

So it is with oil tankers which only move as fast as a bicycle moves.  The straight of Hormuz was closed over a month ago, but the tankers that were in motion continued to move.  Only now are they not arriving in Europe.

The mathematical models describing this can result in bifurcations and chaotic behavior.