Will the deal even make it to the end of the week?  It's hard to see how there is any way for Chump to spin this as a win even if it does.  The Nuke issue won't be resolved in 60 days, and I doubt they'll release anywhere near the $300B Iran wants to clean up thee mess, even if it's aactually their own money anyhow.  The Israelis are more entrenched than ever, and Bibi actually looks moderate compared to his critics over there.  The Insu7raance companies aren't gonna be lowering their rates anytime soon, so I doubt we see a flood of ships sail out of Hormuz either.

RE

Though it's unclear exactly what the Friday signing will mean if the deal has already been signed digitally. The vice president did say that the full text of the agreement would be released at some point this week and that negotiations were expected to continue.  The exact contents of the agreement is still unclear, and he remained vague about what specifics were in the the text of the already-signed agreement.

This actually *sounds* like real progress, but it does remain to be seen what the agreement actually says.  Most unclear is what "open" really means as far as shipping is concerned.  Also what the Israeli refusal to back out of Lebanon means.

Let's see how the week plays out.

RE

What a fucking farce! The "deal" which was supposed to be signed yesterday which now won't be signed until Friday which NOBODY HAS ACTUALLY SEEN gets announced on Chump's 80th birthday with lots of fanfare and blood & guts with a UFC Cage Fight on the WH Lawn & the stock market does the requisite pump while oil prices dump.  KA-CHING!  WTF buys this shit?

Unless the deal is PUBLISHED for everyone to read first, either side can say the other side changed the wording when they get to the signing ceremony.  There already are obviously different concepts of what this deal supposedly says.  Beyond that, Bibi already says he's not leaving Lebanon, and I can't believe Iran considers Israel keeping all the land they are occupying as a satisfactory end to the war.  Lebanon doesn't get any war reparations?  Come on!

Then the lie that Hormuz is open with toll free passage?  Iran has already said they will run Hormuz together with the Omanis.  Finally, Bibi already says he doesn't accept the agreement, which he hasn't even seen either since he's not in the loop on the negotiations.

So, more bombs will drop this week until MAYBE Vance Dances over to Switzerland, both sides come to the table waving different pieces of parchment claiming the other side changed the wording, and nothing gets signed.  Great Theater!  lol.  Maybe they'll have a fist fight on stage.

Anyhow, 5 days is a long time and other scenarios are quite possible as well.  Chump might still just be using this for cover of a sneak attack on Kharg Island or he might go ahead and Nuke Tehran.  The chances of any meaningful MoU being signed Friday remain slim and none.


RE

Trump does not have the brains or the balls to deal with Israel.  I do, but I'm nobody.

Among those Red Lines is that there can be no Peace until Israel stops bombing Lebanon, so no matter what else is in the MoU as things to be discussed in the future like their Nuke program, there won't be Peace until Chump gets Bibi to heel.   I think also having the Sanctions lifted is a Red Line, so until Iran can start selling Oil on the open market, again no Peace possible.  The Iranians also need some kind of 3rd party guarantees against Chump going back on his word, like say the Chinese will supply them with means to retaliate to any type of aggression in kind.

Now, if the MoU does get signed, there may be some tentative increase in ships transiting Hormuz, but as long as Israel keeps bombing Lebanon and until there is generalized REAL peace in the neighborhood, the Insurance rates are going to remain high and many shipping companies and sailors will not sign up for those cruises.  Best case scenario right now would be they might get 20% of the old traffic back up over the next couple of months if the deal holds.  By then, just about all the strategic reserves will be drained and oil prices will start to rise further.  Further inflation in food prices as the harvests start coming in from fertilizer starved fields.  More Food Riots in many poor countries.

Big question is what kind of action Chump will take to reign in NitwitYahoo besides just chewing him out over the phone to get him to stop messing with Lebanon?  He'll need to drop on some kind of Sanctions as punishment, and they need to be severe enough to actually hurt.  Otherwise, it's BAU and we're right back to where we began.

RE