It is not just Energy and it is not just Oil.  Human behavior is involved.
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#31
Collapse Life / Financial ruination and marke...
Last post by TDoS - Jun 20, 2026, 05:38 AM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 19, 2026, 08:40 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Jun 19, 2026, 07:50 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 19, 2026, 05:28 PMNo the men in black did not cause the problem except that they are certainly behind the trolls who pretend to be Russian.

Really? Is the idea that the MIB pretend to be Russian trolls because..they are more believable than when they pretend to be North Korean or Chinese ones?


The point is that the trolls are almost certainly government action.  Why else would anyone plant registrations to see the internals of this site without being a member and making a post like a goddamn human would.
Easy answer. Because they are spammers. They write script, the same as you. Those scripts run around, sign up to sites (you should see the same things popping up on peakoil.com, effectively an even more dead website than this one), and then amusingly post in a language that certainly isn't English. I didn't say they were smart spammers. Any person would know better than to post Chinese or Russian on a mostly Anglo-file site like that, or here, but because everything is automated, they just don't care what their individual misses are, only that they have some hits.

This behavior strikes me as typical, as opposed to the government thinking there is any way whatsoever randomly spamming sites with less than a handful of users.

Quote from: K-DogAnd if anyone else was doing it, the government would be all over them in spades.  Think about it.
I did. See more logical explanation above. If it were American secret services they would actually look American. They would speak American. They would ask about if we had any bomb making secrets, etc etc. It would be some FBI intern tasked with opening 50 usernames on the 50 most subversive sites trolling for targets to arrest, not interested in politically irritated older folks who are mobile, strike one user, have nothing to lose, strike two other users, and presto there is no one left of interest.

Quote from: K-DogThis is not the only asshole the government wants to climb up.
Or not one the government wants to climb up at all. You, me and RE are all capable of working out a threat analysis of the entirety of this website and coming to about the same analytical conclusion. There is none.

Quote from: K-DogThe only time they would not be investigating other investigators is when they are doing their surveillance through a third party, which they always do. They are not going to watch themselves.

The point of being Russian or any other nationality is to be untraceable.  I doubt this website is even visible in Russia.  Or North Korea, or China.  One of the Russian passages was a guide on how to rent a car in Turkey.  This is nothing new.  Untraceable bullshit.  The same technique has been used for years.

Probably because.....spammers don't learn for shit.

Quote from: K-DogUntraceable surveillance is the game, and because this forum can set user permissions, being a member is necessary to know what is going on inside here.

Or random spamming is the game. I'm certain the FBI could be untraceable, and doesn't have to pretend to be spammers as a way in. Just do I what I do. Sign up. Show up. Say something. And then ask cute questions about if the 3 of us know any subversives. Or encourage us to become subversives. So K-Dog....but by "subversive" I don't mean the politically irritated. I'm guessing folks what I just described, which is exactly how US services seem to catch all kinds of half wits just saying stupid shit online and then arresting them the instant someone takes the bait and buys some primer cord off of them in a grocery parking lot, is a well defined MO.And doesn't involve spamming a site with Eastern European languages. Or Chinese. 
#32
War / Lebanon says Israel has carrie...
Last post by RE - Jun 20, 2026, 01:08 AM

EURONEWS.COM2026-06-20

Lebanon says Israel has carried out a wave of fresh strikes, killing at least five people

On Friday, Israel's national security minister said "all of Lebanon must burn" after the Israeli military reported that four of its soldiers had been killed in the south of the country.  "For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep," Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote on social media.


They really need to STOP using the word "CEASEFIRE".  It has completely lost any meaning whatsoever.  Even putting it in quotes doesn't fix the damage done to this word.  Webster's or Oxford or needs to sue.

Supposedly Witicoff flew out this morning to negotiate, which guarantees nothing will get done.  He couldn't negotiate his way out of a paper bag.


RE
#33
Collapse Life / Financial ruination and marke...
Last post by K-Dog - Jun 19, 2026, 08:40 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Jun 19, 2026, 07:50 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 19, 2026, 05:28 PMNo the men in black did not cause the problem except that they are certainly behind the trolls who pretend to be Russian.

Really? Is the idea that the MIB pretend to be Russian trolls because..they are more believable than when they pretend to be North Korean or Chinese ones?


The point is that the trolls are almost certainly government action.  Why else would anyone plant registrations to see the internals of this site without being a member and making a post like a goddamn human would.  And if anyone else was doing it, the government would be all over them in spades.  Think about it.  This is not the only asshole the government wants to climb up.  The only time they would not be investigating other investigators is when they are doing their surveillance through a third party, which they always do. They are not going to watch themselves.

The point of being Russian or any other nationality is to be untraceable.  I doubt this website is even visible in Russia.  Or North Korea, or China.  One of the Russian passages was a guide on how to rent a car in Turkey.  This is nothing new.  Untraceable bullshit.  The same technique has been used for years.

Untraceable surveillance is the game, and because this forum can set user permissions, being a member is necessary to know what is going on inside here.
#34
Collapse Life / Financial ruination and marke...
Last post by TDoS - Jun 19, 2026, 07:50 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 19, 2026, 05:28 PMNo the men in black did not cause the problem except that they are certainly behind the trolls who pretend to be Russian.

Really? Is the idea that the MIB pretend to be Russian trolls because..they are more believable than when they pretend to be North Korean or Chinese ones?


#35
Collapse Life / Financial ruination and marke...
Last post by K-Dog - Jun 19, 2026, 05:28 PM
As RE said

Quoteit is America.

The database is restored up to the last backup which was yesterday.  Merging in the posts that were made today is too much damn work.

No the men in black did not cause the problem except that they are certainly behind the trolls who pretend to be Russian.  I am dealing with them, and that caused me to use untested code which wiped the trolls and everyone else out except for RE and I.  Since we are admins the code did not delete us.
#36
Collapse Life / Financial ruination and marke...
Last post by TDoS - Jun 18, 2026, 03:02 PM
Quote from: RE on Jun 08, 2026, 03:48 AMNo hard work necessary, no unique brilliant invention, just salesmanship.  It's his gift.

RE

Having the ability to disrupt major markets, like auto manufacturing, aerospace, etc etc, doesn't require unique brilliant inventions or hard work maybe. Right place, right time, right idea, it is America. Being born with brains delivers all sorts of outcomes....sometimes including none. Or trillionairehood.

#37
War / Israel and Iran harden stances...
Last post by RE - Jun 18, 2026, 11:51 AM

TIMESOFISRAEL.COM2026-06-18

Israel and Iran harden stances on Lebanon pullout, risking Trump’s deal

Iranian official says MOU will be void if IDF does not fully withdraw, while source near PM vows not to back down; army posts fresh map of buffer zone, says troops will remain.


You heard it here first!  As I said, the deal is meaningless as long as Israel has troops in Lebanon.  The Iranians don't have to do anything until that happens, they can just sip Margueritas.  Of course they knew Bibi wouldn't pull out, it's Political Suicide for him in Israel.

What will this mean as far as Hormuz is concerned?  Well, they WANT it open, because they HAVE to sell their Oil, otherwise they'll have to shut down wells.  They're out of storage space.  Chump wants it open, otherwise we get a Global Recession (which is probably already baked in the cake anyhow).  However, there won't be any negotiation on the Nuke issue.

I wonder how many ships have actually sailed thru since the signing?  No newz on that yet


RE
#38
War / Pakistan says MoU in effect af...
Last post by RE - Jun 17, 2026, 10:27 PM

ALJAZEERA.COM2026-06-17

Pakistan says MoU in effect after Trump, Pezeshkian signing

Pakistan says the “Islamabad MoU” has taken effect, and US officials say it includes Iran not developing or buying a nuclear weapon, ending the war on all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.


Is somebody going to inform Bibi?

RE
#39
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Jun 17, 2026, 12:49 PM
QuoteWhat is much more likely is that Demand Destruction is beginning to set in.


Suppliers need a bargain since current energy prices can't be supported.  You are not going to pay a lot for something you can't sell at a high enough price to cover your costs.  The question is, is this a lagging indicator of economic conditions or is it a leading indicator of market expectations.  Or both.  It looks to be both.

Sort of like telling the waitress you will wait for the fresh pot of coffee.

Looking at the graph it looks like the demand destruction was manifesting as a straight line down.
#40
Peak oil / US emergency oil stockpile tum...
Last post by RE - Jun 17, 2026, 12:38 AM

CNN.COM2026-06-15

US emergency oil stockpile tumbles to lowest since the Reagan administration

“We’re raising alarm bells right now,” Sommers told CNN’s Phil Mattingly on The Lead. “We’re getting to levels where we are starting to be concerned.”  Lipow said he thinks SPR releases may have to slow once the Trump administration is done releasing the 172 million barrels it pledged in March to release.


Meanwhile, the price of Oil is currently at $75/bbl.  This of course because now that Chump & the I-a-toldya have electronically signed an MoU that nobody has seen and millions of barrels are now streaming out of Hormuz on their way to Happy Motorists aaround the world, right?  I seriously doubt this.

What is much more likely is that Demand Destruction is beginning to set in, growth has slowed to a snail's pace and a recession is now being priced in to the futures trade.  Oil is selling at $74 because they're not finding enough buyers even for the restricted amounts now currently available at prices of $80 and up, so they have to lower the price.  This also why they are slow to invest in drilling new wells and ramping up production.  The price won't crank back up until real physical shortages start appearing in markets that can afford to pay the high prices, like the FSoA.  Supply & Demand.  This is still a ways off.  How long?  Maybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.  Ideally, skyrocketing prices and physical shortages will show up in October, a month before the elections.  That would seal Chump's fate, if the elections aren't rigged or cancelled.


RE