There has long been a perception that new Fed chairs are swiftly tested by turmoil in markets shortly after taking the reins, according to Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, who noted the actual data on the topic has been mixed.

The Bond Vigilantes awaken!

Even with the rising rates on USTs though, I don't see much likelihood that Inflation will respond and cool anytime too soon.  Input prices for manufacturers aren't going down until Hormuz is at least partially settled and demand destruction in Food and Energy takes a while because the consumption is generally fairly inelastic.  However, more flexible areas of the economy like vacation travel and clothing purchases will take an immediate hit that will depress the labor market.  So, recession & stagflation likely to take hold in the 3rd or 4th quarter.

Kevin can't do much about this, but he is guaranteed to be Chump's Whipping Boy.  Since His Trumpness theoretically can't fire him, it will be interesting to see how he holds up under regular abuse on social media.  You couldn't pay me enough for that job.

RE

With some CEOs treating layoffs as a scarlet letter, it's becoming even more difficult for workers to get ahead in an increasingly brutal job market rife with ghost jobs.

One thing Tech WILL NOT rescue is unemployed Code Jockeys.  Between downsizing, offshoring, supply chain disruption, economic slowdown and AI, it's a Perfect Storm for the grunts pounding the keyboard and drawing flowcharts.

Fortunately of course, many of them have found new careers in the Gig economy flipping burgers and stacking warehouse shelves.

"The bennies are great at my new job." said Geek Nerdson,formerly Vice President of Product Development at Microsoft. "We get a free Happy Meal for lunch and unlimited Coffee refills.  My kids can play on the Jungle Gym free after school until I finish my shift."

RE

You will note at the end of this article from the Smartest Guys in the Room at the IEA that they STILL assume a deal to end the war will be reached and the Black Gold will once again flow freely into the tanks of Happy Motorists around the world.  EXCEPT EVERYBODY KNOWS already that even IF some kind of deal is reached to end the war that the flow will never go back to the pre-War levels due to insurance issues at the very least.  No sign whatsoever that the war will be over anytime soon, so WTF base your assumptions on this fantasy?

By the Nov elections the true state of the oil market will be patently obvious.  Trumpsky will be lucky if he only gets Impeached.

RE

Well, I'd rather be a year early than a day late. 😀  Given that we see population declines in so many countries now though, I think it's fair to say the dieoff is underway.

RE

Quote from: RE on May 13, 2026, 12:11 PMNever a dull day in Collapse with the Chump as POTUS.[/color]
RE

Well...I'd wait until we get an actual collapse before pretending a normal dull day with the Ornage one in charge has caused even a slowdown in population growth, let alone the number getting smaller at all.

Hopes and Dreams reign, in the world of Doom! Be happy how long you've been wrong, as mostly likely personal doom will get the 3 of us senior citizen Americans, high net worth or not. Matter of fact, all 3 of us are making a bet on it! K-Dog and I betting on high net worth to see us through, and RE betting on the State truddling along, Trump in charge or not.

Writing in The Atlantic, Kagan said the damage inflicted by the conflict cannot be reversed.  "There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done," he concluded bleakly.

FINALLY, some GOOD NEWZ about the war in Iran! 😀  Off the keyboard of a certified Neocon Jackass, no less.  Rarely are we treated to such a happy moment worthy of celebration and gloating!

The only bad aspects of the collapsing FSoA imperialist adventurism is in the near term that it will do increasingly stupid things trying to maintain its "preeminence", and in the longer term won't do much besides perhaps slightly slow the ongoing Collapse of Industrial Civilization.  It's far too late to repair the damage already done and there still is no replacement for the ever dwindling resources of energy, water and minerals necessary to maintain the current technological standard of living and population size.  The Great Dieoff of Homo Sapiens on Planet Earth will arrive regardless.  In fact it probably has already begun.

In the distant future however, life will go on for millions more years until the Sun goes Red Giant, any Homo Saps who do survive or evolve into something else will have the chance to start over and not repeat the mistakes made in the Age of Fossil Fuels.  You can't make an Omelet without Breaking a few Eggs. 😀

RE

In the letter to the secretaries of defense, state and homeland security on Wednesday morning, reviewed by the Guardian, Democratic lawmakers led by Delia Ramirez, a representative from Illinois, linked a rise in migration from the island nation to the heightening US aggression on Cuba.

Unfortunately with Trumpolini. people telling him NOT to do something only increases the likelihood he WILL do it. 😒  Plus as mentioned in a previous article, it's part of the whole crisis of Capitalism and the failing Petrodollar.

It is hard to see though practically how he would do it with so much of the military resources currently dedicated to the war in Iran.  Cuba is much smaller, weaker and more isolated of course, so it wouldn't take more than a division of Marines to pull it off.  There's also the question of whether the Generals would continue following what are clearly Illegal Orders.

Never a dull day in Collapse with the Chump as POTUS.

RE

And an AI-generated image of Trump as Jesus Christ, both of which Trump later took down.  Harp, who is in her mid-30s, brings the president stacks of printed-out drafts of social media posts—many of them recycling content from other accounts—for Trump to approve, sources told the Journal.

Melania's getting a little long in the tooth, so the Pussy-Grabber-in-Chief has found a new chippy to keep him company during his late night social media posting orgasms. lol.  She definitely fits his type preferences.  No Monica Lewinsky here, she's top shelf Escort Service material.  No doubt highly qualified with years of experience working under Epstein in his Junior High Internship program. 😆

RE

Changing modes of capitalism have ended up as that skewed form of imperialism that now propels war with Iran. The message of Marxist analyst Samir Amin resonates: "[C]apitalism is incapable of overcoming its fundamental contradictions." (2) That would be so, especially if working people, the great mass of humanity, rise up, mobilize, and say, No!

This will be no surprise to Diners familiar with Marxist analysis and the ongoing crisis in Capitalist economics, but the Iran war has little to do with the Iranian Nuke Program and much more to do with the waning power of the FSoA Dollar as the only financial debt instrument available for the Oil Trade on the Nation-State level.

The rise of the Chinese Renminby as the debt instrument of choice for evading economic sanctions and the advent of the BRICS clearing system for trades enables Oil trade completely independent of SWIFT & the Petrodollar, so the loss of this financial control system has driven FSoA Imperialists to attempt the physical control over the choke points of the global ocean based transportation of the oil.  This motivated the action against Venezuela directly before the Iran war, and also the threats to Cuba, Greenland and Canada to their sovereignty.

Will the escalating crisis lead to a workers revolt and the collapse of the Dollar as World Reserve Currency?  Will that lead inexorably to WWIII and direct conflict between thee FSoA and the PRoC?  It's looking more likely all the time, and this week's meeting between His Royal Chumpness and Xi may provide some clues.

RE