Figure out how to live in the worst-case. 
Or play Rambo in the woods, and max out your privilege. 

Your thoughts?

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#31
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 27, 2026, 05:42 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PMsurely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

I didn't have any establishment complaints when King George II of the early 21st century arrived, I wasn't born yet.

RE
#32
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Apr 27, 2026, 05:31 PM
Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 07:40 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM
Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.
Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.


New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

Yeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Doomers don't ever like the status quo, I get that, it oozes from their pores and into their words and ideas.But surely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it? Have ANY of your establishment complaints changed since since King George II of the early 21st century arrived other than the names involved?
#33
Crazy times / Manifestos
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 27, 2026, 02:51 PM
Cole Allen's manifesto in full:

QuoteHello everybody!

So I may have given a lot of people a surprise today. Let me start off by apologizing to everyone whose trust I abused.

I apologize to my parents for saying I had an interview without specifying it was for "Most Wanted."

I apologize to my colleagues and students for saying I had a personal emergency (by the time anyone reads this, I probably most certainly DO need to go to the ER, but can hardly call that not a self-inflicted status.)

I apologize to all of the people I traveled next to, all the workers who handled my luggage, and all the other non-targeted people at the hotel who I put in danger simply by being near.

I apologize to everyone who was abused and/or murdered before this, to all those who suffered before I was able to attempt this, to all who may still suffer after, regardless of my success or failure.

I don't expect forgiveness, but if I could have seen any other way to get this close, I would have taken it. Again, my sincere apologies.

On to why I did any of this:

I am a citizen of the United States of America.

What my representatives do reflects on me.

And I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile, rapist, and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes.

(Well, to be completely honest, I was no longer willing a long time ago, but this is the first real opportunity I've had to do something about it.)

While I'm discussing this, I'll also go over my expected rules of engagement (probably in a terrible format, but I'm not military so too bad.)

Administration officials (not including Mr. Patel): they are targets, prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest

Secret Service: they are targets only if necessary, and to be incapacitated non-lethally if possible (aka, I hope they're wearing body armor because center mass with shotguns messes up people who *aren't*

Hotel Security: not targets if at all possible (aka unless they shoot at me)

Capitol Police: same as Hotel Security

National Guard: same as Hotel Security

Hotel Employees: not targets at all

Guests: not targets at all

In order to minimize casualties I will also be using buckshot rather than slugs (less penetration through walls)

I would still go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary (on the basis that most people *chose* to attend a speech by a pedophile, rapist, and traitor, and are thus complicit) but I really hope it doesn't come to that.

Rebuttals to objections:

Objection 1: As a Christian, you should turn the other cheek.

Rebuttal: Turning the other cheek is for when you yourself are oppressed. I'm not the person raped in a detention camp. I'm not the fisherman executed without trial. I'm not a schoolkid blown up or a child starved or a teenage girl abused by the many criminals in this administration.

Turning the other cheek when *someone else* is oppressed is not Christian behavior; it is complicity in the oppressor's crimes.

Objection 2: This is not a convenient time for you to do this.

Rebuttal: I need whoever thinks this way to take a couple minutes and realize that the world isn't about them. Do you think that when I see someone raped or murdered or abused, I should walk on by because it would be "inconvenient" for people who aren't the victim?

This was the best timing and chance of success I could come up with.

Objection 3: You didn't get them all.

Rebuttal: Gotta start somewhere.

Objection 4: As a half-black, half-white person, you shouldn't be the one doing this.

Rebuttal: I don't see anyone else picking up the slack

Objection 5: Yield unto Caesar what is Caesar's.

Rebuttal: The United States of America are ruled by the law, not by any one or several people. In so far as representatives and judges do not follow the law, no one is required to yield them anything so unlawfully ordered.

I would also like to extend my appreciation to a great many people since I will not be likely to be able to talk with them again (unless the Secret Service is *astoundingly* incompetent.)

Thank you to my family, both personal and church, for your love over these 31 years.

Thank you to my friends, for your companionship over many years.

Thank you to my colleagues over many jobs, for your positivity and professionalism.

Thank you to my students for your enthusiasm and love of learning.

Thank you to the many acquaintances I've met, in person and online, for short interactions and long-term relationships, for your perspectives and inspiration.

Thank you all for everything.

Sincerely,

Cole "coldForce" "Friendly Federal Assassin" Allen

PS: Ok now that all the sappy stuff is done, what the hell is the Secret Service doing? Sorry, gonna rant a bit here and drop the formal tone.

Like, I expected security cameras at every bend, bugged hotel rooms, armed agents every 10 feet, metal detectors out the wazoo.

What I got (who knows, maybe they're pranking me!) is nothing.

No damn security.

Not in transport.

Not in the hotel.

Not in the event.

Like, the one thing that I immediately noticed walking into the hotel is the sense of arrogance.

I walk in with multiple weapons and not a single person there considers the possibility that I could be a threat.

The security at the event is all outside, focused on protestors and current arrivals, because apparently no one thought about what happens if someone checks in the day before.

Like, this level of incompetence is insane, and I very sincerely hope it's corrected by the time this country gets actually competent leadership again.

Like, if I was an Iranian agent, instead of an American citizen, I could have brought a damn Ma Deuce in here and no one would have noticed shit.

Dude.  They know you are there.  You are a weapon of mass deception, and you do not even know you are part of a plan.  That is the point. Since you don't know, there is no connection to you for anyone to trace. You are just one of a few thousand targeted individuals.  But you are a targeted individual with a three word name going on.  And you are the one who happens to be in the right place at the right time.  All they needed was for you to walk through the door, and for you to let your freak flag fly.  They did not need your cooperation.  They just needed you to do your thing.  That way if any doors were opened for you to get to the main event to do your thing, there is no way for anyone to ever know.  Their deniability is not simply plausible.  It is actual.  Total operational security.  Dzhokhar Tsarnaev is in a living tomb, and like him you will soon be too.  The same one.  Patsies for life both of you. <- Kdog

Actually insane.

Oh and if anyone is curious is how doing something like feels: it's awful. I want to throw up; I want to cry for all the things I wanted to do and never will, for all the people whose trust this betrays; I experience rage thinking about everything this administration has done.

Can't really recommend it! Stay in school, kids.

But is it real?

The "PS" section, where Allen critiques the security, feels less like a manifesto and more like a narrative device in a thriller novel. Real-world attackers would focus on the success of their attack.  Allen is focusing on the incompetence of the men in black.  Fictional antagonists designed to show the author is full of himself perhaps!? Something about this does not jive.  Thinking about how stupid your opponents are is not something you are going to do when rolling the big dice. It does not fit.  But it would fit in creative writing.  In real life concentration on your plan would be what your are thinking about.
#34
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 26, 2026, 07:40 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM
Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.
Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.


New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE
#35
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Apr 26, 2026, 05:15 PM
Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PMTrue it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.

Worked fine? Really? The USSR had like a average lifespan of its citizens of like 57 years old under Communism, and the last time K-Dog was talking about the wonders of such a system I posted a picture of a Soviet era kitchen and asked him if he thought the wife would think that was juset jim dandy fine. As expected when uncomfortable truths are so easily revealed, I believe the post generated no answer, such are the consequences of well thought out examples.

You'd be dead already in Stalin's system, you might think that is fine, but it wasn't American's fleeing the US to live in such a fine and upstanding system back in the day.

Quote from: REAlso worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

If you minimize "early problems" as the greatest manmade dieoff in the history, sure, look how great Tibet, Hong Kong, the Uyghurs love the system, and Taiwan isn't arming itself to try and keep subjugation away from them, but to steal American military tech first because they LOVE the idea of being Chinese and are just faking enjoying a free market economy.

Quote from: REYou conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.
Only because communists appear to love being totalitarian states. Why aren't you regaling me with stories of how well the North Koreans have it compared to their poor, downtrodden southern neighbors? Are all South Koreans yearning to move North to be free of their capitalist overlords?

Quote from: REThey are not one in the same thing.
I agree. Too bad they just LOOK that way sometimes. Like, in between killing off millions because, you know, totalitarians LOVE Communism because it is GREAT for totaltarian rulers to make everyone do what they want.

Quote from: RECapitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Capitalism has some MASSIVE faults, no one is claiming it doesn't. But some might be arguing it is the least shittiest, plus as the Presidency goes, so can go the US. So when the Orange One's time is done, maybe we'll see a bit more normality return. Maybe.

Quote from: REDefinitely a phase change coming.
Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.
#36
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 26, 2026, 04:23 PM
Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PMTrue it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE
The Soviet Union after 1923 was a degenerated workers' state.  Property was formally nationalized, but political power had been usurped by a privileged bureaucracy that pushed aside soviet democracy and the working class.  Trotsky rejected the sloppy equation of 'Stalinism = socialism.'  as Stalinism was a counterrevolutionary distortion arising from the objective contradictions produced by the material conditions of the time.

Now what will the objective contradictions generated by the material conditions Trump gives to us do.  The contradictions will resolve.  Such are the physics of real life.  How the contradictions resolve will not be pleasant.

#37
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 26, 2026, 01:31 PM
True it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE
#38
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 26, 2026, 12:53 PM



CSMONITOR.COM2026-03-31

As oil prices surge, Filipinos feel the impact of a distant conflict

Even before global fuel prices started surging due to the Middle East conflict, life was already a daily calculation for Romeo Esmenda. He makes a living in Quezon City, northeast of Manila, driving a jeepney.


SUNSTAR.COM.PH2026-03-26

Marcos assures PH crude oil supply to last until end of June

Chevron Philippines Inc. president and country chairman Pongtorn Tangmanuswong said that supply of fuel is only sufficient until the last week of April.


DEVELOPMENTAID.ORG2026-04-20

Philippines faces energy emergency as global oil crisis exposes deep vulnerabilities

The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency as a global oil shock triggered by the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict disrupts fuel supplies and drives up costs across the country.

Trump's WWIII

THESOUFANCENTER.ORG2026-04-15

The Spillover Effects of the Iran War on Asia

Asia is experiencing shocks and reverberations across multiple economic sectors as a result of the U.S.-Israel vs. Iran war.

Trump's clusterfuck of faults, and his bad decisions has started a tsunami that will smash onto America's shores in the months to come.  For now the waters are calm, but this state of affairs will not remain.
#39
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Apr 26, 2026, 12:25 PM
Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 11:24 AM10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short. 
Sure. And when global cooling kicks in a big chunk of the Earth's population will die-off, as claimed in 1970 by folks with degrees in the field and whatnot. Doomers of the day as well I imagine. Folks all agreed.

And your angle, based within the overall concept of Apocalyticism, has been around for millennium. So now you want to argue fertilizer? The only good news being, if you are right THIS time (as compared to all the others) then at LEAST we'll get enough of a population reduction to actually be able to claim some form of collapse is happening. FINALLY the doomers might have got one right.

Then again....the usual might happen. Folks adapt, adjust, find workarounds, and compensate. The things that Doomers apparently never factor into their proclamations. Have you?

Quote from: REPrior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

COOL! And before people discovered black rocks that could burn, the carrying capacity was even less! And then what happened? EXACTLY what I previously suggested, listed nicely on Page 18 of my copy of Catton's Overshoot. He might have been a xenophobe at heart, but at the very least you should know that your argument has been blown out of the water by every thing listed on that page. And your only argument around it is claiming it can't happen again? You aren't that stupid, so either you are assuming I am (which is a terrible habit of yours) or you already know you can't and just want to pretend everyone else really is stupid.

Quote from: REThe goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.

Yes, I'm sure the 10's if not 100 million folks murdered during the last totalitarian experiments in this process just didn't try hard enough, only their LIVES depending on it and everything. Not enough motivation you figure, what is your plan for motivating people to grow food that is better than telling them their lives depended on it?

Quote from: REHad it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.
It was followed through. All those folks died, and the fearless leaders who liked your idea, changed their minds when it turned out that just everyone died. 

Quote from: REThe Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

Well then there we go! More Castro's and Cubans, and murderous Jews, and we're in business!

Here is my bet. Catton's opinion, resembling yours, is that a process that has happened throughout millenia has suddenly stopped. Because HE, and YOU, can't see NOW the next evolution. That is mostly a lack of imagination, a sense of absolutism in terms of what is today in terms of technology, will not change. Both you, and he, apparently lack the vision to cast progress into the future. In your case it is probably just because it fits a personal belief, because you aren't stupid. Which means you, perhaps like Catton, suffer from the same psychological hiccup. Catton, after detailing all the prior multiple phase changes...decided that well...NOW....it must stop. You are are both smart, he even published the prior phase changes, but both of you, because you can't see it in the moment, pretend it can't happen again.

Amusingly, odds are, it is already happening. It is why peak oil predictions were wrong. Both of you lack whatever that perspective is that allows an analytic projection into the future that isn't just doom. You are just repeating what the experts claimed in 1970...and for the same reason. The inability to see the next phase change.

Hubbert screwed the pooch because he, and others, couldn't see beyond the data, geology and history. They skipped the economic component. Like Ehrlich, he missed some pretty basic economic concepts.

Let me give you just one pie in the sky example. Recovery factors in oil and gas fields were once upon a time X%. With time and technology, they increased to Y%. A change in economics and technology. This opened up potentially hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil, if not trillions ultimately. EVs arriving on the world stage and in mass production, and their ever decreasing costs. Batteries that rely less on critical minerals. Solar panels on roof tops all across America. A paradigm shift in where enegy is produced, and from what. Fusion is a good example. Not here yet, but the instant it is? Another shift.

 
#40
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 26, 2026, 11:24 AM
10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short.  Prior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

AI Overview

Based on estimates by agricultural scientists such as Vaclav Smil, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process (early 20th century) was approximately 1.6 to 2 billion people, or roughly a quarter the population that can be supported today with synthetic fertilizers.


The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.  Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE