It looks like we were both right about the casualties.  If we we pool what that knowledge has been worth we could buy 1 cup of coffee, maybe.

The Defense Casualty Analysis System, or DCAS, which tracks "deceased, wounded, ill or injured" service members for Congress and the president, is missing hundreds of known casualties.
Yet again, you heard it here first! 😀

This still isn't the complete numbers IMHO,but at least it's confirmation of ongoing coverups.  If/when El Chumpo is booted  out of the Oval Office, maybe we'll get the real numbers.

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This is why nobody believes anything in the media.  There is OBVIOUSLY no cease fire, nor has there ever been one.  The FSoA simply slowed down how much bombing they were doing because they were pissing away money and running short on munitionns with no results.  Now Trumpolini authorizes a bombing mission every couple of days to show everyone how tough he is and that he "means business".  It's a fucking farce.  They aren't any closer to an agreement than they were on Day 1.

Count on a lot of starving kids in Africa, India and SE Asia by Christmas.

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Quote from: K-Dog on May 25, 2026, 04:55 PMCarpet bombing of a city may result from Ukraine droning.  Drones don't tip the balance.  They change the equation, but using them may come with heavy consequences.  The "Zelensky junta and its Western sponsors" make life in Ukraine suck.

They definitely do change the balance, they just don't completely level the playing field.  The bigger country still holds some advantage.

However, in the case of Russia-Ukraine, were it not for the drones the Ukies would likely be defeated by now, at least Mother Russia would have made more progress rather than being more or less stuck for the last year.  In fact according to recent MSM reports, the Ukies have taken some ground back.  They're also successfully damaging Russia's oil export terminals, reducing their income from oil sales.  This would be hurting more had Trumpolini not helped out Russia by attacking Iran and jacking up the price of oil.

The Iranians also are much more able to threaten Hormuz using the drones, plus the threat of the Dolphins which will make Mine Sweeping actions nearly worthless.  The Dolphins can be deployed after sweepers go thru at any time from hidden basses along the coast.

The other aspect here is that the drone technology being relatively short range favors the defenders of a territory over the aggressors.  Drones can be assembled in anyone's basement or garage and taake off from any cul-de-sac, highway or parking lot.  They don't need any airfields which are targets for bombing.  It's distributed technology making it more difficult to find and target.

Imagine here in the FSoA for instance if say Mexican Drug Lord like El Chapo hires a couple of Ukie Mercs with drone tactics experience to train his enforcement squad.  They could fly drones from Mexico and hit border patrol bases all along the Rio Grande and hit refineries in Houston to retaliate against CIA attacks on their smuggling operations.  Cartel associates who sell drugs here could deploy drones from any FSoA city where they have operations.  East LA where cops don't go could have drone assembly factories in any warehouse or auto repair shop.  Drug smugglers are already using drones to get drugs across the border.  It's just a small step up to start using them as weapons against the DEA.  None of this would be possible were it not for the fact the drone tech is cheap enough for any decently large operation moving $millions$ in cocaine and fentanyl every month.

Drones make waging this kind of battle possible at financial levels within reach of the common man.  The tech will spread just like automatic weapons.  Eventually they'll be all over the place.

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Carpet bombing of a city may result from Ukraine droning.  Drones don't tip the balance.  They change the equation, but using them may come with heavy consequences.  The "Zelensky junta and its Western sponsors" make life in Ukraine suck.



Today Kiev is no place for a stray dog.

Quote from: K-Dog on May 24, 2026, 08:53 PMThe Phoney War was an eight-month period at the start of World War II, from September 1939 to May 1940, during which there were virtually no Allied military land operations on the Western Front.

I find it hard to call the kind of conflict we see lately a "War".  It's more like a Siege utilizing Terror Bombing.  The objective isn't to kill enemy soldiers as much as it is to destroy infrastructure and economically starve the opponent into capitulation.  Generally, the side with the better delivery systems for the bombs who has more of them will win over the long term, but as this conflict is showing now, it may not always remain true.

The best delivery system for bombing since WWII has been Aerial Bombardment using expensive airplanes and missiles.  The advent of Cheap Unmanned Drones has brought a great delivery system for bombing within the financial reach of even relatively poor states and even non-state actors.  As long as your bombs can reach and destroy critical infrastructure delivering energy, communications, food & water to the target population, you can compete in such a conflict as long as you can outlast your opponent's tolerance for economic disruption.

The poorer the state is to begin with, the less they have to destroy and the more capable the people are of living without it once it's bombed.  Cubans can last far longer without the lights on in Havana than any city in the FSoA could last.  If the community of ex-Pat Cubans here started using drones to bomb say transformers in Miami to knock out power, the current blockade would get a lot tougher to sell.  However, unlike Iran, Cuba is small and isolated, so a full scale invasion would be undertaken.  Also, many of the ex-Pat Cubans are rabid anti-Commies who actually root for regime change.

Ukraine's battle against Russia is a better example.  They're not isolated, getting support from nearby NATO countries.  Though smaller than Russia, it's not as big a difference of FSoA vs. Cuba.  Their Cheap Drones are allowing them to do almost as much damage to Russia's Oil exporting capability as Russia's missiles and air force can do to Ukraine.

Iran has the HUGE geographical advantage of it's proximity to the Global Energy Chokepoint of Hormuz to be able to threaten the ENTIRE WORLD with energy & food starvation, and all they need to do it are cheap drones, unmanned robotic mines (Dolphins) & torpedos, speedboats and short range shoulder fired laser guided missiles.  As long as they can deal with the power being out most of the time and have access to food and water coming in over land, they're fine.  The rest of the world has less tolerance for globl recession, unemployment and inflation than they have for living by candlelight.

I don't think most of our military planners and strategists understand this new dynamic very well yet, and the legacy militaries of the FSoA, Russia and China haven't yet adapted to it.  It's going to radically change the balance of power as the use of the cheap drones spreads.  I definitely forsee the use of drones here inside the borders of the FSoA as the global conflicts over energy and food become more intense.  Perhaps as soon as next year.  Time will tell.

RE

The Iranians, of course, immediately disputed this characterization, and by the next day, Trump was backpedaling. "If I make a deal with Iran," he posted this afternoon, "it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon." The agreement that was only a day earlier "largely negotiated" was now only a notional memorandum, and Trump griped that it was unfair to criticize it because "nobody has seen it, or knows what it is," and it "isn't even fully negotiated yet."

As usual, you heard it here 1st!  As I predicted, the so-called "agreement" was merely a memo of shit to discuss in future as yet unscheduled meetings while the "ceasefire" keeps firing and a couple of Chinese boats trickle thru Hormuz each day.  IOW, same shit tomorrow as yesterday.  Not that you need a Ph.D. in Foreign Affairs to work this stuff out.  The journalists must get a good laugh every time he posts up his bullshit on Truth Social.

Upshot is we have a minimum of AT LEAST 60 days before any decent quantity of oil, LNG & fertilizer starts moving, which takes us to August.  That means for all practical purposes, this year's crop in the Northern Hemisphere will be reduced by somewhere between 20-50%.  Remember there's also a Super El Nino and droughts expected.

Now the only question is how long before things get really ugly?


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Quote from: TDoS on May 24, 2026, 07:09 AMI get banned for daring to question herdthink among the faithful.

No, you get banned because you are a narcissistic, self important jackass.  Your entire existence on the net is one long, non-stop brag about how much you know about the oil industry.  It's your claim to fame which you only interupt long enough to sneer at other oil experts who are more famous than you and get quoted more often than you do.  Nobody really cares what you think here or how much money you make or how many EVs you have, we only tolerate your presence because you are the perfect example of the kind of scumbag that makes this country such an awful place to be associated with.  The ultimate example of the Ugly Amerikan.



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