Read the newsletter The Collapse Chronicle 

Main Menu

Recent posts

#61
Tech is always to the rescue / - The big AI revolution
Last post by K-Dog - May 18, 2025, 02:11 PM
Quote from: RE on May 14, 2025, 06:05 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on May 14, 2025, 02:36 PMIt seems to me a guy could make serious bank right now doing that.  Businesses do not know how to do it themselves.


Well then, make a biz card and drop in on some local biz you could write some AI app to improve their biz, explain how it will improve proffits and bill them @ $200/hr.  Call it K9-AI.  You can quit stocking shelves.

RE

Yeahhhhhhh,



This is an image, it runs in another window on my browser.

I just accomplished this within the last hour,  It is the result of so much effort I won't get into it.  But it mixes python php javascript code on a local web page that talks to a local server which runs a large language model.  I can switch the running model in and out.  Interesting to watch the personality of the responses change.  Nothing uses the web, (but I could not have built this without the web).

The leading edge of tech is referred to by those who actually are involved in the work as the bleeding edge.  I said I won't get into it, but it is like Columbus landing on Hispaniola for me.  The concept is simple.  The language model is considered to be a bad student who has a cheat sheet.  In this case the entire Doomstead codebase has been placed into a vector database.  The Question is first sent to this database where semantic matches are made and returned.  This data becomes the cheat sheet which is then presented to the llm along with the original question, and like a cheating student the llm which knows nothing of the Doomstead codebase can answer the question. 

Easy as pie.

Not so easy to actually do,  The number of software pieces that have to dance together to make this all work is huge.  Gigabytes of library code are used, and the webpage has about 1000 lines of code, most of it fancy-assed.  Getting all the software to all dance together for the first time is a major accomplishment.  And the vector database is written essentially from scratch using the fancy-assed code.  The buttons at the top do not do anything yet but are ready to wire up.  The send button sends and the toolbar text reports connection to the the LLM.  Essential operation achieved after days of wheel spinning.



* RAG  -- Retrieval Augmented Generation


A demo I ran across (and ran) uses a text 2000 lines long which is nothing but random facts about cats.  A simple chat LLM uses this text to be an expert on cats.  It may be fun to make an expert on doom and have people ask the doomstead questions.  We be an oracle!
#62
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by RE - May 18, 2025, 01:45 PM
Quote from: TDoS on May 18, 2025, 12:24 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on May 18, 2025, 11:40 AMSome people are rich enough to be nice.  It does happen.  I would be one of them.

You are one of them, based on net worth. As am I, and other various 7 figure net worth people Iimagine.

We have established that in today's economy in the FSoA, a low 7 figure net worth doesn't make you rich, merely comfortable, since the McMansion you live in by itself can be worth over $1M.

To be a lower end rich person, in addition to the McMansion, you need an annual income that puts you in the 1%, >200K or so.  I would add in addition to that other investments which provide enough annual ROI so that if for some reason you became unable to work, you could continue to live in that house, pay all your bills and live comfortably from the passive income.  A portfolio in the neighborhood of around $5M-10M would be about right.  In other words, you may work, but you don't HAVE to work.

RE
#63
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by TDoS - May 18, 2025, 12:24 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on May 18, 2025, 11:40 AMSome people are rich enough to be nice.  It does happen.  I would be one of them.

You are one of them, based on net worth. As am I, and other various 7 figure net worth people Iimagine.

Quote from: K-DogSuch know that there is more to true riches than money.  True riches have in fact nothing to do with money.

But of course. And more interestingly, it begs the question why it is verboten to talk about our children. They happen to be related to true riches that have nothing to do with money.
#64
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by K-Dog - May 18, 2025, 11:40 AM
Net Worth Over Time

    1970s: Initial earnings from Roxy Music and early solo projects, estimated at several hundred thousand dollars.
    1980s: Major financial boost from collaborations with David Bowie and Talking Heads, net worth estimated at $10 million.
    1990s: Peak earnings from work with U2 and solo projects, net worth estimated at $30 million.
    2000s: Continued growth through diverse investments and ventures, net worth estimated at $45 million.
    2010s: Strategic investments in technology and visual arts, net worth estimated at $55 million.
    2020s: Recent financial activities and philanthropy, net worth estimated at $60 million.

Brian Eno is actively involved in various philanthropic efforts, including support for environmental causes, human rights, and social justice. He has donated substantial amounts to organizations working on climate change, environmental conservation, and promoting equality and justice. Eno also participates in benefit concerts and events to raise awareness about important social and political issues.

Some people are rich enough to be nice.  It does happen.  I would be one of them. Such know that there is more to true riches than money.  True riches have in fact nothing to do with money.
#65
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by TDoS - May 18, 2025, 07:51 AM
What happened to my detailed example, including the math, of why selling ones house doesn't mean homelessness ensues? 
#66
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by RE - May 17, 2025, 09:44 AM
Quote from: TDoS on May 17, 2025, 06:04 AMSure. No different than investing in a 401k or Apple stock or a myriad of other mechanisms.

Big difference.  Liquidating your 401K doesn't make you homeless.  Also, as an investment a MaMansion doesn't earn money unless you rent it out.  So only 2nd & 3rd homes can be used this way.  401Ks don't have maintenance and repair costs.

Anyhow, basically this all just shows that the 1st $1-2M of net worrth doesn't make you filthy rich, just comfortable.   I already stipulated it takes about $10M to set up a trust fund for each kid, so you need to be comfortably into 8 figures to be filthy rich.  Really 9 figures especially if you're Elon and have 13 kids.

RE
#67
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by TDoS - May 17, 2025, 06:04 AM
Quote from: RE on May 17, 2025, 01:08 AM
Quote from: TDoS on May 16, 2025, 03:27 PMTodays working man, as K-Dog has demonstrated, can certainly find themselves in a higher level of net worth, depending on the time and dollars they had to invest and save. Although he has also mentioned preferring low but safer return investments.

The primary reason some Boomers have 7 figure net worth is because of the vast inflation in the value of the one investment many of them have, which is their McMansion.  It's definitely the case with Kdog.

Sure. No different than investing in a 401k or Apple stock or a myriad of other mechanisms. Real estate just happens to be one that usually appreciates with time....as do market tracking funds.

A house is an investment, just like many others. But a more popular one than most. And can lead to Mr and Mrs Dog being high net worth indivudals, based on my arbitrary metric.


Quote from: REThing is, since for most of them it's their primary residence, it's not a very liquid investment.  Given the expenses of taxes, energy use and maintenance the asset can become a liability when they retire and their incomes drop.
Absolutely. Investments have their advantages and disadvantages, be they tax implications, operating expenses to maintain, and the idea that this particular investment is more affordable during ones working years. Which is why retirees cash out and move into apartments in Florida and retirement communities and whatnot.

My aunt has retired this year. She closes on her house this month, where she lived for 38 years, and is moving into an independent living facility, one of those that as your health deterioriates through time will manage/take your liquid assets and care for you until death.

My grandmother did the same thing. My mother is already in such a facility, slowly depleting her savings until they are gone, and then her retirement $ and social security will cover the costs until she passes.

Such is how our lives spin down. When the final calculations are done...a house is an investment like any other, and the decisions made as to what happens to it aren't much different. Your generational wealth idea then can kick in. Anyone who wants to pass it on can, prior to the state requiring its sale or whatever. Of course, that implies having children that one wants to see prosper in their future, and not all parents have that concern.

Quote from: REFor these reasons, I think it's worthwhile to eliminate the McMansion in an analysis of class when it's the primary residence.  Vacation homes which are more easily sold off should be counted though.  Similarly, 1 car should be discounted as a necessity, but multiple cars, RVs and motorcycles count in the net worth calculation.
RE
You might want to eliminate McMansions as an analysis of class, but as an investment the state surely won't when it comes time to fund those end of life costs.

Very few folks have enough extra cars and motorcycles and whatnot of sufficient value to be meaningful in a net worth calculation. A crazy collector (folks like I've purchased off of before) might have $100G of old Indians and exotic whatevers laying around....but the commercial real estate it was contained within was worth orders of magnitude more. Investments, including real estate, can be of sufficient scale to qualify easily though.
#68
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by RE - May 17, 2025, 01:08 AM
Quote from: TDoS on May 16, 2025, 03:27 PMTodays working man, as K-Dog has demonstrated, can certainly find themselves in a higher level of net worth, depending on the time and dollars they had to invest and save. Although he has also mentioned preferring low but safer return investments.

The primary reason some Boomers have 7 figure net worth is because of the vast inflation in the value of the one investment many of them have, which is their McMansion.  It's definitely the case with Kdog.

Thing is, since for most of them it's their primary residence, it's not a very liquid investment.  Given the expenses of taxes, energy use and maintenance the asset can become a liability when they retire and their incomes drop.  They can become "House Poor" and need to sell it, which can be problematic depending on its price and the prevailing interest rates and regulations.  Big problem with this in the Condo market in FL with fire regulations and HOA costs.

Next problem is after selling, they need to find housing they can afford at their reduced income.  The proceeds from the sale don't do them much good if they all need to be spent to buy a small 1 bedroom apartment in a retirement community.  Even worse if they need to go into an assisted living situation, in which case various medical costs will burn through the whole nut in a couple of years in some cases.

For these reasons, I think it's worthwhile to eliminate the McMansion in an analysis of class when it's the primary residence.  Vacation homes which are more easily sold off should be counted though.  Similarly, 1 car should be discounted as a necessity, but multiple cars, RVs and motorcycles count in the net worth calculation.

RE
#69
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by TDoS - May 16, 2025, 03:27 PM
Quote from: RE on May 16, 2025, 03:18 AMThis gets us back to the question of whether having a 7 figure net worth makes you rich in today's wotld.

Sure, my use of 7 figures net worth was semi-arbitrary because once upon a time, being a MILLIONAIRE was a big deal. Most of us being geriatrics, most of us probably understand the frame of reference.

Quote from: RENow, not being in the class of the filthy rich doesn't mean you're poor or even middle class.  That's more an income driven thing than a net worth thing.  These days to qualify for the 1% on Income, it's around $220K/yr I think.

Is that all it takes? Seems like 2 early career professionals could pull that off.

Quote from: REKdog definitely does not get near that number. 
Of course not. It sounds like for someone with a high net worth, he is cash poor, with his stories of employment and being unhappy with the cost of his coffee and danish compared to his wages. Although, $20G's for a new heat pump? So he can be environmentally friendly? Seems like a bit of disconnect between those two.

Quote from: REYou probably surpass it.  Between his SS and suplemental employment earnings, K-dog is middle class.
In terms of cash flow, sure. But I have been specific about using a net worth metric, as opposed to cash income generated from being a working man. Todays working man, as K-Dog has demonstrated, can certainly find themselves in a higher level of net worth, depending on the time and dollars they had to invest and save. Although he has also mentioned preferring low but safer return investments.

I have been a bit more aggressive in my investing since I began, with occasional reversals. Like April/May 2008  ( a win!) and 2011 (a lose) and Valentines Day 2025 (so far a win!).

Quote from: REMonsta is middle class and Knarf and I are poor.  No filthy rich Diners at this time I am aware of.
RE
Your status I am aware of, from your own postings. I have no opinion and recall no Monsta stories related to the topic. At the Spartanburg SUN grand rollout he looked to be a nice young man, he was sitting with David closer to the tent when you and I were talking.

This is an interesting topic as well. Because I have never in my life cared about net worth. Or todays paycheck. Work hard, work smart, invest along the way,maybe you win, maybe you die of cancer at age 30. It's all a crapshoot.

Smoke'im while you got'im.
#70
The American economy / - Economic Errata
Last post by monsta666 - May 16, 2025, 12:50 PM
Nothing glamorous or righteous about extreme wealth. Also for every billionaire you have there will be a number of tag alongs who will use the earners money for frivolous spending. I have seen it with my own eyes seeing how, what or where those funds goes. Those trust kids can really live it up. Only thing I wonder is what those six figure American Express bills go towards.

When you see such things like this on the regular, I can't help but stop and ponder. Unlike what the social narrative often says about the rich being more virtuous, there are actually a lot of people in the uber rich class who are not exactly hard workers. Heck if they didn't spend so much we would consider them lazy, work-shy individuals. Going from what the front office workers say, it does seem like a good chunk of them don't exactly have sterling personalities either...