- Welcome to the Doomstead.
under construction.Recent posts
#81
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Jul 12, 2026, 07:52 AMQuote from: RE on Jun 17, 2026, 12:38 AMSupply & Demand. This is still a ways off. How long? Maybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.
RE
Of course I can. But you can't afford my hourly rate to get it.
#82
American Socialism / Trump leans on 'communist' mes...
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 12, 2026, 07:23 AMQuote from: RE on Jul 11, 2026, 04:27 PMDoes Red Baiting really still work? Do Amerikans really still have the same FEAR of Communism McCarthy used in the 50s to consolidate FSoA Fascism? Haven't people grasped by now their REAL enemy are the Capitalists? They're all getting progressively poorer while .01% of the population Hoovers up whatever wealth is still left. How can people be so BLIND?
RE
Repeated exposure to a statement increases the perception it is true, regardless of reality. Decades of red-baiting as pejoratives have deeply ingrained them in the American political lexicon. Red baiting is an "othering" mechanism. Labeling an idea or a person with the stench of "communist," casts them out. No BBQ for them. Quit talking when they walk in the room and all that shit. People conform and keep their mouth shut if they disagree, and in time most people eventually do agree. Oh, say it ain''t so.
Social pressure acts as a more powerful deterrent than economic hardship does in shaping attitudes. The grim reality is that those at the bottom of the economic ladder justify the ladder the most. The only way they can justify their place on it, is by deceiving themselves that it is fair. If they can't see it as fair their world falls apart, and this sad fact makes the poorest among us Republican cheerleaders to avoid stress they don't even know they have.
System Justification Theory posits that people are motivated to defend, bolster, justify, and kiss the ass of the status quo, even when it is clearly to their detriment. To do otherwise is to stare into a deep dark pit.
When belief systems are tied to survival and a persons identity, and they avoid psychological pain by self deception, facts rarely stand a chance. Facts become a piss in the wind.
#83
American Socialism / Trump leans on 'communist' mes...
Last post by RE - Jul 11, 2026, 04:27 PM
Trump leans on 'communist' messaging as economic angst drives Democrats
"I think we're hitting a nerve," Trump said. "It's a different kind of race. All we have to do is define our opponent as being a communist or a socialist or somebody who is going to destroy our country."
I'll tell you somebody who will destroy the country. EL CHUMPO!
Does Red Baiting really still work? Do Amerikans really still have the same FEAR of Communism McCarthy used in the 50s to consolidate FSoA Fascism? Haven't people grasped by now their REAL enemy are the Capitalists? They're all getting progressively poorer while .01% of the population Hoovers up whatever wealth is still left. How can people be so BLIND?
RE
#84
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 11, 2026, 07:09 AMQuoteBoth the attacks on Russian and Iranian Oil supply are being directed at the behest of the Oil majors. They are only tangentially because of Ukraine's persecution of ethnic Russians in Donbass and Crimea or Iran's Nuke development program. They needed to get this supply off line in order to raise the price enough to bring the unconventional Oil in the FSoA, Canada and Brasil up to a profitable margin.
Global Oil Demand Falls for the First Time Since COVID
The International Energy Agency expects demand to rebound in 2027, but analysts question whether the Iran war could hasten a long-term decline.
Depending on how you define behest I'll agree. Passive-agressive behest can be as simple as doing nothing.
In fact considering that much of America is populated by moral zero know-nothings, many would agree that the oil companies doing this would be a good thing. I do not.
#85
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Jul 11, 2026, 02:08 AMQuote from: K-Dog on Jul 10, 2026, 11:52 PMQuoteMaybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.
He has talked about his ability to do a world class analysis many times. But from his perspective, to get oi from the ground all you do is put a straw in the ground and suck. And remember he only talks about his abilities, and he never has demonstrated jack shit. If you can show me any of his posts that hint at any world class knowledge, I'd like to see them.
Not being an expert, the fact I identified Demand Destruction as the reason for the price of oil not reflecting the supply disruption a full month before the IEA published their expectations could be attributed to being a lucky guess. Since I'm feeling lucky, I'll make a few more guesses.
Both the attacks on Russian and Iranian Oil supply are being directed at the behest of the Oil majors. They are only tangentially because of Ukraine's persecution of ethnic Russians in Donbass and Crimea or Iran's Nuke development program. They needed to get this supply off line in order to raise the price enough to bring the unconventional Oil in the FSoA, Canada and Brasil up to a profitable margin. In the high $70s, they just about do that. Where it was at in the low $60s they were bleeding money and capital for more drilling was drying up.
They have successfully killed Demand all across the poor countries in SE Asia and Africa. This will correlate directly to killing people, and the Demand won't be coming back to those places anytime soon. They can't keep the price much above this without killing demand (and more people) in the slightly wealthier middle countries like Southern Europe and in South America and have the same effect. Kill TOO MUCH Demand and there will be an oversupply of refining infrastructure that would have to be shut in.
China, which gets most of it's Oil from Russia and Iran has been insulated from the problems their neighbors have been facing because they maintained a large strategic reserve will at some point in the not too distant future need to start refilling those storage tanks to keep their industrial machine running. This will likely occur before the Ruskies can fix all their broken hardware or the Iranians can star shipping Oil out in the quantities necessary. That will put price pressure back on the market, and there will be another round of DD in wealthier countries. Actual supply shortages will result i more political upheavals.
War currently limited to Russian and Iranian infrastructure will expand to other countries. Look for refineries and shipping ports being attacked in SA and Europe by Russians and Chinese proxies. Possibly in the FSoA as well. Neither country can allow the FSoA to remain operational selling oil while they are being bombed out of the market.
RE
#86
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 11, 2026, 01:17 AM
Oil Markets Are Adaptive Systems: Complex Order Without Equilibrium
The market has moved from pricing acute supply risk to pricing the next problem: weak demand, distorted flows, and uncertainty about what “normal” means after Hormuz.
#87
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 10, 2026, 11:52 PMQuoteMaybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.
He has talked about his ability to do a world class analysis many times. But from his perspective, to get oi from the ground all you do is put a straw in the ground and suck. And remember he only talks about his abilities, and he never has demonstrated jack shit. If you can show me any of his posts that hint at any world class knowledge, I'd like to see them.
And what exactly is 'jack shit'? Inquiring minds want to know.
#88
Peak oil / IEA Sees First Annual Oil Dema...
Last post by RE - Jul 10, 2026, 10:28 PMQuote from: RE on Jun 17, 2026, 12:38 AM
What is much more likely is that Demand Destruction is beginning to set in, growth has slowed to a snail's pace and a recession is now being priced in to the futures trade. Oil is selling at $74 because they're not finding enough buyers even for the restricted amounts now currently available at prices of $80 and up, so they have to lower the price. This also why they are slow to invest in drilling new wells and ramping up production. The price won't crank back up until real physical shortages start appearing in markets that can afford to pay the high prices, like the FSoA. Supply & Demand. This is still a ways off. How long? Maybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis. Ideally, skyrocketing prices and physical shortages will show up in October, a month before the elections. That would seal Chump's fate, if the elections aren't rigged or cancelled.
RE
You heard it here first, as usual! 😀
IEA Sees First Annual Oil Demand Drop Since 2020
The IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 1 million barrels per day this year versus last year, the first annual decline since 2020. Disruptions linked to the Israel-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply constrained Persian Gulf exports. The IEA has cut its Russian supply outlook for this year and next by 85,000 and 150,000 barrels per day, respectively, amid ongoing drone attacks on energy infrastructure
"Demand" Stats are a lot like measurements of Unemployment. The people who want to buy it are no longer in the workforce being measured. If you stop buying it because you can't afford it, you no longer are considered part of the demand for oil. Makes sense, right? lol.
RE
#89
War / US and Israel carrying out str...
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 10, 2026, 01:59 PMAs long as food is on the table the magic works.
All songs end.
All songs end.
#90
War / US and Israel carrying out str...
Last post by RE - Jul 09, 2026, 02:21 PMThey never actually had a ceasefire to call off.
It's pretty amazing. The Ruskies cancelled all exports of diesel, sanctions are back on Iranian Oil but the Black Gold still selling at the bargain price of $78. No mentions of fertilizer shortages now either. I guess they've solved all the problems somehow without reopening Hormuz. Magic!
RE
It's pretty amazing. The Ruskies cancelled all exports of diesel, sanctions are back on Iranian Oil but the Black Gold still selling at the bargain price of $78. No mentions of fertilizer shortages now either. I guess they've solved all the problems somehow without reopening Hormuz. Magic!
RE