The Iranians, of course, immediately disputed this characterization, and by the next day, Trump was backpedaling. "If I make a deal with Iran," he posted this afternoon, "it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon." The agreement that was only a day earlier "largely negotiated" was now only a notional memorandum, and Trump griped that it was unfair to criticize it because "nobody has seen it, or knows what it is," and it "isn't even fully negotiated yet."

As usual, you heard it here 1st!  As I predicted, the so-called "agreement" was merely a memo of shit to discuss in future as yet unscheduled meetings while the "ceasefire" keeps firing and a couple of Chinese boats trickle thru Hormuz each day.  IOW, same shit tomorrow as yesterday.  Not that you need a Ph.D. in Foreign Affairs to work this stuff out.  The journalists must get a good laugh every time he posts up his bullshit on Truth Social.

Upshot is we have a minimum of AT LEAST 60 days before any decent quantity of oil, LNG & fertilizer starts moving, which takes us to August.  That means for all practical purposes, this year's crop in the Northern Hemisphere will be reduced by somewhere between 20-50%.  Remember there's also a Super El Nino and droughts expected.

Now the only question is how long before things get really ugly?


RE

Quote from: TDoS on May 24, 2026, 07:09 AMI get banned for daring to question herdthink among the faithful.

No, you get banned because you are a narcissistic, self important jackass.  Your entire existence on the net is one long, non-stop brag about how much you know about the oil industry.  It's your claim to fame which you only interupt long enough to sneer at other oil experts who are more famous than you and get quoted more often than you do.  Nobody really cares what you think here or how much money you make or how many EVs you have, we only tolerate your presence because you are the perfect example of the kind of scumbag that makes this country such an awful place to be associated with.  The ultimate example of the Ugly Amerikan.



RE

Quote from: RE on May 22, 2026, 08:47 PM

Quote from: TDoS on May 22, 2026, 06:08 PMYou have an objection to someone hiring actual experts?

No., I have an objection over someone reversing his arguments from one post to the next.

Oh please. You might specialize in knowing this topic from personal interest, but I have explained what and why I do what I do, and why the long time doomers are of professional interest.

I educate, I tease, I test. I get banned for daring to question herdthink among the faithful. <shrug>

You wanted to get paid for pitching doom on a website similar to how some others seemed to have accomplished, as you've mentioned on that wordpress site of yours. A tangible result of your interest in doom. I get paid for knowing things in my niche, and when the internet came along that ended up including all the half baked arguments, misrepresentations, presumptions from a position of ignorance, ill-conceived nonsense that touched topics in my area of expertise.

I see no confusion here as to why I hang out on the internet for entertainment, joke material (while attempting to seperate the serious from the un-serious so as to know who to focus on) to weave into a professionals tale of how hydrocarbon resource depletion plays out, when, where and how.

I don't do boring academic presentations. I've got one scheduled in 2 weeks, working on it now. You once wanted a tangible result of your personal interest. I acquired it almost by accident. I credit the difference to mostly perspective. Yours is that of an educated enthusiast, mine is that of a professional scientist. No incongruity between why I do what I do online, and how I use it professionally.

Quote from: REYou can't have it both ways.

Depends on wht you beleive "it" is.

Quote from: REYou argue like Trumpolini....It just demonstrates your hypocrisy.

Quote from: TDoSI told all the peakoil.com folks everything that wasn't propritary for years for free. 

This is completely accurate, regardless of whether or not you like the statement. I lectured for years on why they hadn't thought it through. You object because obviously a "troll" knew more than the combined might of what was once a vibrant website, the combined ability of which was to be stump stupid because they couldn't even be bothered to THINK when I gave them directions on how to become informed.

As I said before, the internet has taught me quite a bit about people in general, and those inclined towards doom specifically.

Quote from: Chump
Donald Trump, the head of the U.S. terrorist state, said the final details of the deal with Iran are being discussed.

The check is in the mail.🙄

RE

A deal could end a conflict that has choked global energy markets and pushed U.S. inflation to its highest level in years. "An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries," Trump said in a social media post. The agreement includes a memorandum of understanding as a first phase, Iran's foreign ministry said, before broader talks within 30 to 60 days.

Yea, right.  What does IRAN say?

Iran's Fars news agency reported the Strait ⁠of Hormuz would remain under Iran's management, according ⁠to ‌the latest ⁠exchanged text between Iran and ‌the U.S. The report dismissed ‌Trump's ⁠announcement of reopening ⁠the ⁠strait as part of a "largely ‌negotiated" deal as "incomplete and inconsistent with reality."

Reading between the lines, the "deal" is just the "memo of understanding" which states that they'll keep talking about it and keep disagreeing on the fundamental points.  Iran at some point MIGHT agree not to work on nuke weapons, but they will not do that unless at least $100B in war reparations are paid and ALL sanctions are lifted AND they can collect tolls on Hormuz.  Those are conditions Trumpolini can't agree to without looking like a total fool.  Which he is of course.   He also is in desperate need of a reality check.

Don't count on ships lighting up their Bunker Fuel burners and steaming out of Hormuz loaded with Oil anytime soon.

RE

 When the conflict began, warnings of another "forever war" seemed exaggerated. No longer. As matters stand, the negative international humanitarian, economic and geopolitical fallout from this fiasco looks set to prove more permanently globally damaging than any of those past US-made disasters.  That being the case, an urgent question arises, not least today as reports suggest the US president and his secretary of war are planning to rain more bombs on Iran: who will stop Donald Trump?

This approach certainly should be tried, but unfortunately it's not likely to work and at worst could backfire badly.

The first problem is I'm not sure you could get all the countries on board with sanctions of the FSoA that really bite.  Many are quite dependent on the FSoA for more than just military aid.  Food is a big export item, and it wouldn't be easily replaced.

The bigger problem though is Trumpolini's psychology.  Everybody lining up against him would increase his paranoia and increase the likelihood of him ordering the use of nuke weapons.  Then it would depend on the Generals refusing to follow the orders, and so far I haven't seen any indication they have enough backbone to do that.

The only plausible legal solution at this point is if the Repugnants lose both houses of CONgress and an Impeachment is successful.  However even that requires the conflict to stay at relatively low level until Nov, and then probably at least 3 months for the Impeachment hearings.  By the time he's out of office, the global economy will be toast and food and energy shortages will be widespread.  We're probably already guaranteed millions will die, this solution just gives it a chance of not escalating to 10s or 100s of millions.

Unfortunately, there's no plausible legal solution to the Trump problem.  A Coup d'Etat could work, but that also would take backbone from the Generals and might star a Civil War.  It's a major Wicked Problem.

RE