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#81
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Apr 26, 2026, 12:25 PMQuote from: RE on Apr 26, 2026, 11:24 AM10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short.Sure. And when global cooling kicks in a big chunk of the Earth's population will die-off, as claimed in 1970 by folks with degrees in the field and whatnot. Doomers of the day as well I imagine. Folks all agreed.
And your angle, based within the overall concept of Apocalyticism, has been around for millennium. So now you want to argue fertilizer? The only good news being, if you are right THIS time (as compared to all the others) then at LEAST we'll get enough of a population reduction to actually be able to claim some form of collapse is happening. FINALLY the doomers might have got one right.
Then again....the usual might happen. Folks adapt, adjust, find workarounds, and compensate. The things that Doomers apparently never factor into their proclamations. Have you?
Quote from: REPrior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people. At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.
COOL! And before people discovered black rocks that could burn, the carrying capacity was even less! And then what happened? EXACTLY what I previously suggested, listed nicely on Page 18 of my copy of Catton's Overshoot. He might have been a xenophobe at heart, but at the very least you should know that your argument has been blown out of the water by every thing listed on that page. And your only argument around it is claiming it can't happen again? You aren't that stupid, so either you are assuming I am (which is a terrible habit of yours) or you already know you can't and just want to pretend everyone else really is stupid.
Quote from: REThe goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.
Yes, I'm sure the 10's if not 100 million folks murdered during the last totalitarian experiments in this process just didn't try hard enough, only their LIVES depending on it and everything. Not enough motivation you figure, what is your plan for motivating people to grow food that is better than telling them their lives depended on it?
Quote from: REHad it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.It was followed through. All those folks died, and the fearless leaders who liked your idea, changed their minds when it turned out that just everyone died.
Quote from: REThe Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor. Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes. When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.
RE
Well then there we go! More Castro's and Cubans, and murderous Jews, and we're in business!
Here is my bet. Catton's opinion, resembling yours, is that a process that has happened throughout millenia has suddenly stopped. Because HE, and YOU, can't see NOW the next evolution. That is mostly a lack of imagination, a sense of absolutism in terms of what is today in terms of technology, will not change. Both you, and he, apparently lack the vision to cast progress into the future. In your case it is probably just because it fits a personal belief, because you aren't stupid. Which means you, perhaps like Catton, suffer from the same psychological hiccup. Catton, after detailing all the prior multiple phase changes...decided that well...NOW....it must stop. You are are both smart, he even published the prior phase changes, but both of you, because you can't see it in the moment, pretend it can't happen again.
Amusingly, odds are, it is already happening. It is why peak oil predictions were wrong. Both of you lack whatever that perspective is that allows an analytic projection into the future that isn't just doom. You are just repeating what the experts claimed in 1970...and for the same reason. The inability to see the next phase change.
Hubbert screwed the pooch because he, and others, couldn't see beyond the data, geology and history. They skipped the economic component. Like Ehrlich, he missed some pretty basic economic concepts.
Let me give you just one pie in the sky example. Recovery factors in oil and gas fields were once upon a time X%. With time and technology, they increased to Y%. A change in economics and technology. This opened up potentially hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil, if not trillions ultimately. EVs arriving on the world stage and in mass production, and their ever decreasing costs. Batteries that rely less on critical minerals. Solar panels on roof tops all across America. A paradigm shift in where enegy is produced, and from what. Fusion is a good example. Not here yet, but the instant it is? Another shift.
#82
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 26, 2026, 11:24 AM10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short. Prior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people. At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.
AI Overview
Based on estimates by agricultural scientists such as Vaclav Smil, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process (early 20th century) was approximately 1.6 to 2 billion people, or roughly a quarter the population that can be supported today with synthetic fertilizers.
The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed. Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.
The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor. Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes. When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.
RE
AI Overview
Based on estimates by agricultural scientists such as Vaclav Smil, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process (early 20th century) was approximately 1.6 to 2 billion people, or roughly a quarter the population that can be supported today with synthetic fertilizers.
The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed. Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.
The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor. Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes. When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.
RE
#83
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Apr 26, 2026, 07:49 AMQuote from: RE on Apr 25, 2026, 06:10 PMFar as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones.
Indeed. And it only cost tens of millions of people's their lives. Around here the MIB occasionally deciding to erase posts that are meaningless in the greater context is taken quite seriously, but idiots running countries starving their citizens by the tens of millions? They had some good ideas to make up for that. Which of their good ideas balanced this scale when it comes to their people?
Quote from: RECollective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea.Stalin thought the same, and handed Ukraine the Holodomor. When will these "good ideas" that in the past just murdered tens of millions finally work do you think?
Quote from: REPurging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea. Abolishment of capitalism also good. Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.
Yeah, not worried about purging universities, but more starving everyone in sight with how well these ideas worked out in the past. But hey, at least the rich and privileged got spanked as well!
Quote from: RESuburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper.So you are with Heinberg, Pol Pot, Mao and Stalin when it comes to this "back to farming" idea? What happens to folks unable to participate like you, just bullets to the head or a gas chamber?
Quote from: RE....just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by. It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.Dependence on finite resources is WHAT HUMANS HAVE DONE to date. It isn't as though humans all got together at a big confernece during the hunting and gathering stage and decided to stay that way, knowing in advance what dependency on non-renewables would entail. Although any economist could also argue )and do) that this dependency is required to leverage to a future we can see right now (even if it is the early stages) of renewable energy, fusion waiting inthe wings, an electrified world, the ability to increase recovery factors and efficiencies in accessing those non-renewable resources, and so on and so forth. Economics isn't a physical or natural science for a reason, but it does allow for GREAT storytelling.
Quote from: REAnyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world.Pick a year anywhere between Jan 1 1900 and today and I'll come up with a deep doo-doo story. Dooming is what doomers do, if not the Mayan Calendar, then peak oil. If not that, then Yellowstone. Continue ad infinitum. "Being in deep do do" is a throwaway perpetual motion machine among the doomer legions. You've still got a working brain, you can at least pretend you aren't the only one in the room with one.
#84
Trump Fascism / Raw aggresion, Trump war crime...
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 25, 2026, 11:23 PMYes, the Iranian websites can be hard to get to. Do we have to wonder why?
Today the wind fills my sails, and this is the content. Since they can't be everywhere at once (yet.)
Today the wind fills my sails, and this is the content. Since they can't be everywhere at once (yet.)
QuoteTEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran warned that continued acts of blockade and maritime piracy by the United States will trigger a strong response from the Iranian Armed Forces.
In a statement released on Saturday, the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters stressed that if the US aggressive military continues naval blockade, banditry, and piracy in the region, it will face a response from Iran's powerful Armed Forces.
The statement said the US should be aware that the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran possess greater might and readiness than before to defend the country's sovereignty, territory, and national interests. It added that the US military had already experienced part of Iran's offensive capabilities during the "third imposed war".
The headquarters further stated that Iranian forces remain prepared and determined to monitor the behavior and movements of their enemies in the region, while continuing to manage and control the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
It warned that in the event of renewed aggression by the US and the Zionist regime, they would face even heavier losses.
On February 28, the United States and the Israeli regime launched an unprovoked war of aggression against Iran, during which then Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei and several senior military officials were martyred.
Iranian Armed Forces responded with weeks of missile and drone strikes targeting American and Israeli military positions in the occupied territories and the Persian Gulf region, inflicting heavy damages in 100 waves of counterattacks over a period of 40 days.
A Pakistani-mediated ceasefire lasting two weeks was reached on April 8, paving the way for talks in Islamabad. During those negotiations, Iran put forward a ten-point proposal that included the withdrawal of US forces and the removal of sanctions.
However, after 21 hours of negotiations on April 11 and 12, the sides failed to reach a deal, with Iranian representatives pointing to deep mistrust regarding Washington's willingness to honor its commitments.
Iran has made clear that any return to ceasefire negotiations depends on the lifting of the US naval blockade. Officials have argued that the continued blockade constitutes a violation of the truce.
#85
Trump Fascism / Raw aggresion, Trump war crime...
Last post by RE - Apr 25, 2026, 11:12 PMQuote from: K-Dog on Apr 25, 2026, 10:17 PMTASNIMNEWS.IR • 2026-04-25
US Warned of Iran’s Severe Response to Piracy
The Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran warned that continued acts of blockade and maritime piracy by the United States will trigger a strong response from the Iranian Armed Forces.
The link doesn't load on my computer.
One wonders what a "strong" response to the blockade & piracy would be? Will they attempt an attack on an FSoA Navy boat? That would seem to be pretty hard to succeed at, given they are hanging out well outside the straight in International Waters in the Gulf of Oman. Failing at the attack would make them look weak & give Trumpolini opportunity to boast about his powerful navy and Poseidon like omnipotence over the sea.
So, either they have to be pretty certain they can succeed with such an attack, or choose something pretty substantial that at least makes impressive video to substitute. Blowing up a major Saudi or Kuwaiti refinery or storage facility would make pretty spectacular video if they could manage that, but also pretty tough I imagine. Maybe the Houthis could manage an attack on an LNG transport of their coast? One of those blowing up would really make good video.
How about a big terror bombing in Europe or in the FSoA? That could backfire with negative PR if a lot of civilians get waxed. It needs to be something that attacks infrastructure, not people. A cyber attack on the FSoA electrical grid or the banking system could work, if they have hackers good enough to pull it off.
Just have to wait & see I guess.
RE
#86
Crazy times / The madman
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 25, 2026, 10:51 PMNothing like a 'shooting' to muddy the Persian gulf waters.
DAWN.COM • 2026-04-26
Trump safe after shooting at White House correspondents dinner; suspect in custody
US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump were rushed out of the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner by Secret Service agents on Saturday night after a man armed with a shotgun tried to breach security, officials said.
CHRISTIANOBSERVER.NET • 2016-12-22
How To Spot A False Flag Event
The false flag phenomenon is distinctively modern and used as an ideological weapon to control populations with the fear of a manufactured enemy. They are used in ostensibly democratic systems where people believe they have inalienable rights.
LATIMES.COM • 2026-04-25
What we know about Cole Tomas Allen, Torrance teacher suspected in WHCD shooting
A man taken into custody after gunfire rang out at the White House Correspondents’ Assn. dinner on Saturday was identified by law enforcement sources as 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen, of Torrance.
Torrence California is a long way from DC. I am sure there is a logical explanation. Perhaps there are a lot of logical explanations. Perhaps there is a plethora of logical explanations. So many logical explanations that you can't count them all. And there may actually be a few happy little accidents. Accidents hardly worth mentioning that put Cole at the Washington Hilton tonight too. I wonder how long it will be before Cole figures it out. Some of that ammo was too easy for him to get perhaps? But not now, not tonight. Too much is happening in his life tonight for the scales to fall from his eyes now.
SUBSTACK.COM • 2026-04-26
Wake Me Up When He's Finally Dead
If Trump were actually in jail, where he belongs, then people wouldn’t have to keep trying to kill him.
The lady doth protest too much, methinks
It seems her 'apathy' generated 1000 words.
SBS.COM.AU • 2026-04-26
What we know about Cole Allen — the suspected gunman in Donald Trump dinner shooting
Police said the suspected shooter was a "lone gunman" and armed with a shotgun, a handgun and multiple knives.
An engineer, with a Masters in Computer Science. As mine is in Software Engineering, I am able to say :
I understand !
Trump safe after shooting at White House correspondents dinner; suspect in custody
US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump were rushed out of the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner by Secret Service agents on Saturday night after a man armed with a shotgun tried to breach security, officials said.
How To Spot A False Flag Event
The false flag phenomenon is distinctively modern and used as an ideological weapon to control populations with the fear of a manufactured enemy. They are used in ostensibly democratic systems where people believe they have inalienable rights.
What we know about Cole Tomas Allen, Torrance teacher suspected in WHCD shooting
A man taken into custody after gunfire rang out at the White House Correspondents’ Assn. dinner on Saturday was identified by law enforcement sources as 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen, of Torrance.
Torrence California is a long way from DC. I am sure there is a logical explanation. Perhaps there are a lot of logical explanations. Perhaps there is a plethora of logical explanations. So many logical explanations that you can't count them all. And there may actually be a few happy little accidents. Accidents hardly worth mentioning that put Cole at the Washington Hilton tonight too. I wonder how long it will be before Cole figures it out. Some of that ammo was too easy for him to get perhaps? But not now, not tonight. Too much is happening in his life tonight for the scales to fall from his eyes now.
Wake Me Up When He's Finally Dead
If Trump were actually in jail, where he belongs, then people wouldn’t have to keep trying to kill him.
The lady doth protest too much, methinks
It seems her 'apathy' generated 1000 words.
What we know about Cole Allen — the suspected gunman in Donald Trump dinner shooting
Police said the suspected shooter was a "lone gunman" and armed with a shotgun, a handgun and multiple knives.
An engineer, with a Masters in Computer Science. As mine is in Software Engineering, I am able to say :
I understand !
#87
Trump Fascism / Raw aggresion, Trump war crime...
Last post by K-Dog - Apr 25, 2026, 10:17 PM
US Warned of Iran’s Severe Response to Piracy
The Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran warned that continued acts of blockade and maritime piracy by the United States will trigger a strong response from the Iranian Armed Forces.
#88
The Looming Threat of Super El Niño in 2026
Beneath the waves, the telemetry from the deep Pacific is screaming toward a shift.
El Niño’s Global Impact: Countries and Regions Most Affected, and Its Ripple Effect on Agriculture, Logistics, and Crops
This detailed analysis explores the regions most affected by El Niño, its impact on agriculture and shipping, and identifies the crops most susceptible to its influence.
Feeding Resilience: The Conflict, Climate, and Food Nexus of the War in Iran
Now, with the war in Iran, we have another tragic example of how conflict and climate shocks intersect with one another to negatively affect food security worldwide.
#89
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by RE - Apr 25, 2026, 06:10 PMSome of my best friends were trannies. They just shouldn't compete with cissies because they have different physiology. Not a level playing field.
Far as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones. Collective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea. Purging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea. Abolishment of capitalism also good. Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.
Suburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper. Starting now would be a good idea also, since such a massive transition of lifestyle and relocation of people isn't going to happen overnight.
Never claimed to not have an interest in Peak Oil, just that it's not what led me to become interested in collapse. Economics did that. I've never been married to any particular time line on it, just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by. It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.
Anyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world. Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are planting their crops, and we'll see what the yields are like at the end of summer. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess, mine would be that next year will be worse than this year, which was already pretty bad.
RE
Far as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones. Collective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea. Purging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea. Abolishment of capitalism also good. Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.
Suburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper. Starting now would be a good idea also, since such a massive transition of lifestyle and relocation of people isn't going to happen overnight.
Never claimed to not have an interest in Peak Oil, just that it's not what led me to become interested in collapse. Economics did that. I've never been married to any particular time line on it, just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by. It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.
Anyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world. Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are planting their crops, and we'll see what the yields are like at the end of summer. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess, mine would be that next year will be worse than this year, which was already pretty bad.
RE
#90
Peak oil / Oil supply
Last post by TDoS - Apr 25, 2026, 01:12 PMQuote from: RE on Apr 25, 2026, 12:09 PMThe really smart people never bother with this and understand that the real value of a college education are the parties, the girls, the drugs and the endlessly flowing booze. 😁Now THAT is pretty funny, and probably true based on my experience with frat boys and whatnot. I was married, never did drugs and whatnot, and don't drink. I guess I just learned stuff that later came in handy when showing up the PhD and true believer types who jsut went to school for booze and the girls.
Quote from: REAnother truth is that really smart people, like everyone else all have a price. Offer them enough money and they'll make a very convincing case for just about any insane notion you care to promote, like for instance that smoking promotes longer lasting, harder erections and stronger orgasms.Really? So you don't believe in folks being ethical, the certainly of proven science without regard to someone paying you to play make believe?
Quote from: REOr that trannie women should be allowed to compete with cis women in a boxing ring.Not sure what that has to do with anything. Had problems with trannys in the past or something?
Quote from: REOr that burning fossil fuels has nothing to do with climate change. Or that the war with Iran was a good idea because they are all Muslim towel head terrorists stuck in the middle ages.
Oh now I get it. You are just doing the reheased littany of anti "party you don't like" stuff. Good thing I'm not a Republican either. Not a dumbass Democrat either. I have reserved the right to be independent since 1992.
Quote from: REAll of which explains why I don't put any more value on what World Class Experts in any field have to say than anyone else.Understandable. After all, if you can't be one, then bash them. Quite a common reaction.
Quote from: REAppeal to Authority is a logical fallacy that does nothing to demonstrate the truth of an argument.Quite true. But those who demonstrated the validity of their understanding by nothing more than the passage of some time, well, now we aren't talking about logical fallacies at all. Just prescience. Like....say...the opposite of what Ehrlich did. Or Campbell, McPherson, Hirsch, etc etc. Bu what did they know, getting those rubber stamped PhD's.
Quote from: RERichard Heinberg's work was pretty good, and i've found good information from both Resilience.org & the Post Carbon Institute.
RE
Richard Heinberg? The amateur violin player who claimed that peak oil happened around 2008, and advocated that the government should immediately send/move suburbanites to the fields to grow food, as otherwise everyone was going to starve? He speaks well. As far as technical understanding...well....they say he is a good amateur violin player.
So you like college dropouts (he claimed he dropped out because he liked to smoke weed more, and played in a rock band (according to his interview on TOD) who more closely resembles the ideas of Pol Pot and Mao? Post Carbon in general (excluding Hughes of course....tell me....did North America run out of natural gas reserves by 2016 as he claimed?) isn't bad...as long as the topic has nothing to do with oil, and sticks with just making the world and environment better. Without blaming it on oil disappearing anyway. A decent environmental angle.
When you claimed you never had a major interest in peak oil, but more the overall doomer perspective across many topics, it makes sense you wouldn't know a decent geoscience based peak oil opinion from Joe Bob the nose picker at the local bar.