File this under unforseen blowback.

The latest economic problem for EVs is their poor resale value on the used market.  It's particularly nasty for the rental car companies which always have to use late model vehicles if they want to charge the market rates for bizness and vacation travelers.  Nobody on a Hawaii vacation wants to Rent-a-Wreck.  They want a nicer, NEWER car than the 7 year old Toyota they commute to work in every day.  So rental car companies lease vehicles for 3 years, then resell them.  Personally, when I rented a car I was disappointed if it was more than a year old.

A 3 year old Tesla probably has a battery pack with a lot of charge-discharge cycles on it if it was used in the rental bizness.  It's going to have diminished range on a charge, and probably will need a full battery replacement in 2-3 more years of use by the new owner.  Factoring that future cost in, the new owner is not going to pay the same resale price as an equivalent ICE vehicle, which still will be getting pretty much the same gas mileage as when it was new and goes just as far on a tank of gas.

Besides that, the majority of individuals who bought new EVs were high income people.  They don't buy used cars of any type.  If you're rich, you buy a new car every year, or every 2 at the most.  So these folks keep dropping their 2 year old Teslas off at the dealership to trade for the newest model.  Now the dealers have to try and sell the 2 year old Tesla, and there aren't enough buyers for those.

Result: a lot of vehicles with a HUGE embedded energy manufacture cost are sitting in lots with weeds growing around them.  add in the fact that charging stations are slow in being built, particularly in smaller markets, its making it hard to sell new Teslas except to rich people who live in major markets.  That's a pretty small market.

What this means is that until gas prices either really skyrocket or gas gets rationed, most people are not going to transition to EVs.  With ongoing demand destruction and fewer miles being driven, gas prices aren't rising very much.  So even as less oil gets extracted, it's still enough to supply the core market in the FSoA.  Happy motoring here can continue for the folks with ICE vehicles for quite a while longer, just based on Oil supply-demand numbers.

The bigger problem is economics, because low prices for gas makes expensive tight oil and shale oil extraction uneconomic.  That will eventually cause that production to stop, at which point supply will really drop, to just the cheap legacu oil left in conventional fields.  Simmering in the background is another looming financial crisis from the bond market and falling money supply.  A crash in 2024 seems likely to me, although cheerleaders in the MSM tell us falling inflation and low unemployment numbers reflect a robust and healthy economy.  I don't buy it, but my timelines on calling crashes isn't perfect.  Nevertheless, I'll go out on a limb and predict a recession starting in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2024.

https://fortune.com/2023/12/22/no-one-wants-to-buy-used-ev-piling-weed-infested-graveyards-tesla-bmw-vw

No one wants to buy used EVs and they're piling up in weed-infested graveyards

RE