Quote from: RE on Feb 05, 2024, 06:26 PMNo, it's not the same news, because it's a conclusion drawn from the current conditions, not the conditions as they were 20 years ago.

Correct. Same conclusions. 20 years apart. Different starting conditions. How many times can the same conclusion be drawn (end of oil, peak, etc etc) each with varying current conditions of the time going back through time to 1886 before anyone is allowed to ask the current claimant...."ah...excuse me please...but we've heard that one XX times before, how have you corrected for why all those claims went wrong in order to be sure that you aren't just another discredited toad 5 years from now?"

It is logical that the answer to that question is "Well I couldn't see into the future then, but NOW I've got it figured out!"?

It is a logical and fair question, considering how the Groundhog Day effect has infiltrated this particular topic. Anyone capable of critical thinking can see the logic of the ask, it is clear as a bell. Did the CEO of Occidental answer it? Or is this just another Ground Hog day exercise?

Quote from: REThose conclusions were drawn before the fracking and tight oil plays were added to the supply.

In 1886, sure. When Hubbert in 1936 predicted US peak by 1950? Ok. When he declared US peak in 1970 in 1956? Nope. Fracking had been rolling for a decade, and tight oil, that had been known in Pennsylvania since between 1880-1900, and according to the USGS some of those wells were still producing in the 1990's.

Quote from: REThey are no longer present to add to the supply again, at least not in that kind of quantity.

Two things. Both easy to miss in the post 2018 turmoil I suppose. The first are estimates, or estimate, from at least one organization cutting something loose very hard to find in the wild. Hard to find because it is valuable, and answers questions in an additional dimension that few bother to ask, but is critical.

The first is here. Details just how much more there is in a single small area. But more importantly, how much it costs to get it, and how much you get it for each dollar, all this always a component missing within the peak oil argument with such rigor.

The second is all the other countries besides the US (some already at work on theirs, China and Russia spring to mind) are sitting on their hands. With more LTO than the US.

Quote from: REDifferent starting conditions change the situation, so you are comparing apples to oranges.

And all the changing starting conditions lead to the same, and wrong, conclusion, then what? Just give up and allow the "Groundhog Day Analysis" to continue ad infinitum rather than trying out that critical thinking thing? Is the world really that short of folks willing or capable of this rare act?  

Quote from: REOr better, an apple tree with some apples left to an apple tree that has been picked for 20 years.
RE

Or now standing at 138 years. Or 68 if we want to allow Hubbert's knowledge of all technologies and rock types in 1956 to be the starting point. How about we just guess at how many more Groundhog Day routines might we expect? I can name 6 this century, including the one not predicted but occurred in 2018. So do i hear a 2025? Thank you Mr Small company CEO. Anyone want a 2027? a 2031? Here here, do I have a 2035!

I think if Groundhog Day is the operative idea, then recycling The End of Suburbia makes perfect sense. Without folks asking those critical questions, peak oilers will never know, they'll be happy at being told what they want to hear, again, and again and so on and so forth. It is fitting in a way, that peak oil and this proposed Groundhog Day idea fit together so well.