Simon wants to find a solution to the energy problem which most people recognize is real: that the supply of fossil fuels is not infinite and if we want to continue with a society and systems that consume a lot of energy, fossil fuels have to be replaced.  How much time we have left with fossil fuels remains a matter of some dispute and is an important factor, since more time left means more time to develop an alternative solution.

The solution Simon hangs his hat on are small thorium salt based nuclear reactors, which we will refer to as micro-nukes or MNs as shorthand.  The questions that need to be answered are how fast can MNs be built and distributed out in sufficient numbers to fill the gap left as fossil fuels become increasinly short in supply, and whether the power can be applied to the tasks that the FFs provide power for.  You need to answer also the questions about the supply of the thorium salts, how and where they will be mined and refied and then transported to the reactors and how and where the spent fuel will be disposed of.   Just about none of these questions are answerable at the moment.

In the video, Simon paints a picture of a really simple container size box that all you need to do to keep it running and generating power for your small town is for an easily trained technician to scoop fresh thorium into the top of the box, then scoop out the spent thorium from the bottom.  Sort of like shoveling coal into a boiler and shoveling out the ash at the end.  In his description, all the radioactive processes happen inside the sealed container and it's all very safe.  I doubt it's quite as simple and turn-key as he makes it out to be.

Now, if everything is operating as designed and there are no problems, perhaps it is this easy.  But no technology is immune from malfunctions and failures, and if you have hundreds or thousands of these small reactors sprinkled all over the country and also aboard container ships powering them, where are the maintenance personnel who can come fix a problem when it crops up?  I doubt this is something you could call the local plumber to fix like you would when the boiler in your house goes out.  Home heating systems are simple by comparison, and even these things break all the time.

The thing about working with radioactive fuel is that over time all the piping and containment tanks are exposed to constant bombardment by radiation.  Metals, ceramics and plastics will become brittle and develop cracks.  They also will become radioactive themselves from contamination and bombardment by high energy neutrons.  Replacing worn out or broken parts isn't necessarily going to be an easy job.

Then there is the problem of natural disasters.  Many small reactors distributed out over many locations increases the chances any one of them will be struck by a flood, tornado, hurricane, wildfire, earthquake or volcanic eruption.  Who and how will the damaged reactors be fixed up, and what risk is there if some of the thorium leaks out of the container box?  What happens if there is an overload from an electrical storm?  I'm sure there are built in fail-safes, but those can fail too.

Now, according to Simon, the Chinese have at least 1 thorium reactor ready to go online, and the company that developed the MN is ready to go into production of them.  How quickly can they turn out say 100 of them and get them distributed out and running in some Chinese province?  I've been hearing since about 2014 that thorium was ready to go as a technology instead of conventional, but a decade later we still don't have any track record for this to go on, only the promises from enthusiasts that it is the safe magic bullet we all have been hoping for.  I don't think you can even begin to address any of the questions about the feasibility until you have at least say 20 of them running for maybe 5 years or so.  Is that even going to happen in China in the next 5 years?  It seems doubtful, particularly taking account of their current economic woes.

Given that time problem, it has to be at least a decade before we could have even a handful of these reactors running in the FSoA, and do we HAVE a decade left to keep running on FFs?  Perhaps we won't be running short yet in 2025, but I find it hard to believe we will make it to 2034 with gas still flowing freely from the FSoA convenience store pumps.

Because of the time lag between when a solution like thorium MNs could be implemented and the amount of time we likely have left with enough FFs to keep BAU running, even IF they are the magic bullet Simon hopes they are, I don't think it will come in time to rescue us from a severe dislocation and major problemss with important systems of food production and delivery and heating or cooling in some areas.

The question I have for Simon is what do we do if there isn't enough time to put the MNs into the mix, and/or they aren't quite the magic bullet he makes them out to be?

RE