Iran is a good choice, but to use Iran as a cover for problems here, TPTB would have to sell the idea that Iranians were responsible for hacking the electrical grid or pull off some really big terrorist action on the scale of 911.  That would be sufficient for a shock & awe style bombing campaign of Iran, but they would still need some continuing threats on home soil to justify full scale Martial Law.

It also has the downside that it could actually set off civil war here, since there probably would be a backlash from conscription to handle the war.  If we have Civil War before the Chinese and Russians, that puts us in the lead in the race to the bottom.  If we go to war, then unless they also face similar predicaments, it's not helpful over the longer term.

Now, China and Russia have similar energy problems to the ones here, so they also might want to distract their own populations with some foreign activities.  Russia is already in Ukraine, they might escalate that.  China has issues with Taiwan, that could be a problem.  Definitely, the longer the FSoA can keep it together, the better the chance those countries descend into chaos first.

Anyhow, there are so many variables speculating exactly how it will develop is kind of pointless, since we know where it's headed no matter what.  As always, the main question is, how long do we have left before TSHTF in SOME fashion?  The timeline appears to be getting shorter to D-Day.

RE