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    - It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends ...

    Started by RE Feb 15, 2024, 02:37 AM

    Message path : / Planetary Material Conditions / Peak oil / It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends ... #12


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    RE

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    Feb 15, 2024, 02:37 AM
    A corollary to the price & profitability of oil and where it's located also explains both the current conflicts Ukraine and Israel.  Ukraine has little to do with ethnic Russians in Donetsk and Israeli bombing of Palestinians only slightly more about the animosity between Jews and Muslims.  In both cases it is about 2 neighborhoods critical in bringing Oil and NG to Europe at affordable prices.

    Oil gets to Europe by 2 routes, either by tankers across the Mediterranean or by pipeline coming from Russia of from Turkey.

     

    In the case of the tankers on the Mediterranean, that oil has mostly left from ports in North Africa, but sadly the Algerians, Libyans and Moroccoans are thin these days in their oil supply. Oil coming out of Iran will for the most part go through Turkey, and Saudi Oil cab go that way or it has to get to the Mediterranean.  Either it goes on a tanker and transits the Suez canal, or it goes out through Israel.  It crosses Gaza, and whoever controls that territory controls the transit fees.


    Same is true for oil coming up from Turkey or from Russia.  Both transit the pipeline through Ukraine.  Whoever controls Ukraine controls those transit fees as well.  Which explains why Putin would much rather see Trump elected than Biden.  The Bidens are financially tied to Ukrainian interests.

    Germany and the rest of Europe was solidly with the FSoA when they thought this would keep cheap oil flowing through Ukraine with a quick win, but the war has been expensive and sanctions against Russia has made oil expensive too.  They are now less worried that Putin will overprice his oil if he has Ukraine than Biden would.

    Back when Kissinger Inc killed the USSR by underpricing the Russians with Saudi and FSoA oil, this side was in the catbird seat with the most cheap oil available.  Now the situation is reversed, Mother Russia is in the catbird seat.  Europe's loyalty to NATOs is only as strong as who will provide them oil at the cheapest price.  Thus the Ukrainians are running out of ammo.

    The great geopolitical chess game of oil goes into the endgame. Henry is probably rolling over in his grave.

    RE

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