Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 08, 2024, 03:14 PMQuotePeople need to believe in the oil market, which in turn requires assuming it will last til they and preferably the next couple generations are dead.
Or at least everyone has to believe the can can get kicked down the road for a while. Enough time for green tech and space aliens to rescue humanity and change the game. Roll the dice one more time.
I was OBSESSED with this song after hearing it in the Sopranos finale. Every hipster prestige drama nowadays is 'ummm capitalism is bad actually?' but that's the only one that somewhat got it right. Like all great art it shows, doesn't tell.
The book/paper I mentioned https://archive.org/details/oil-exports.-34odt-1/Oil%20exports.95odt.odt%285%29.pdf
It's five editions of the same 'book' so just download the last one. Dude's 36, a little older than me and already a cranky old prepper living in the woods lol.
If we take a very conservative, linear approach, and project a global oil production decline of 1,2% upon the future, ten, fifteen years from now, then the decline of global net oil exports is at least the double of that (3), i.e. a 2,4 % yearly decline, which is 2,4 mbd lost per year (if we fix the amount of decline, because in percentage declines the amount of decline slows down with time, which it doesn't do in our case), which gives us almost 13 years if we begin with 30 mbd of global net oil exports (which is a very conservative estimate. Oil geologist Jeffrey J. Brown said we were at 30 in the end of 2021, but there has been a sharp recovery in oil production since, therefore I think we are still at 30 mbd), which brings us to the year 2036.This year must be the absolute upper limit in our calculations.
If we then go to the decline of "ANE" ("Available Net Exports"), which is "GNE" ("Global Net Exports", the totality of global net oil exports) less the Chindia (China and India) region's combined net oil imports, then the decline goes a lot faster, by at least 3 % per year, conservatively estimated. So 3 % of global oil production is ~3 mbd. We have 30 mbd of global net oil exports left, at most (we might in fact be already at 28, 27 or even 26 mbd, which takes us to the end point a bit sooner). This give us only 10 years of "ANE oil". And this brings us to the fall of 2033 (or to 2030-2032 if we are now at 26-28 mbd of global net oil exports, which we very well could be).
This, 2030-2033, is pretty much the best case scenario for the end of global net oil exports, and has been the result of professional licensed oil geologist Jeffrey J. Brown's net oil export calculations. Observe that I have not taken into account that the real decline of both global oil production and global net oil exports is exponential (it's a mathematical certainty), i.e. have an accelerated rate of decline, goes faster and faster. With that in mind, the end of available global net oil exports (ANE) could very well happen well before 2030, which is the thesis in my book on the end of global net oil exports. I could certainly have been a bit too radical in my calculations in this book, but I think the core of it is solid and valid. It will be interesting to see how it all will play out, if there is any out there who tracks these things, which I think we should do.
But this, that we lose at least 3 mbd of "ANE oil" this year, is staggering, unfathomable. And I would also like to add to my book, that if I'm wrong in my predictions, I'm then not wrong by a lot of years, not by a decade, maybe only by one year or two, three at most, five to six years if miracles happen, which is not much in the grand scheme of things (as I said, 2030-2033 is the best case scenario). This should be clear to all who have studied my calculations. Do not shoot the messenger too easily. "The wolf came at last" (read the story I allude to here).
He doesn't count natural gas and light-tight shale and thinks they aren't as 'useful' as diesel. Which is highly debatable. Not my field so idk.