it also doesn't account for the switchover to electric heating which has begun in the FSoA, but not so much elsewhere in the world. As the FFs diminish in availability and/or rise in price, electricity from renewables is pretty much all these other countries will have for that purpose, so they really have no choice.
Most importantly, electricity only accounts for portion of total uses of FFs to keep our Industrial Civilization perking along , most of it is NG or coal and not oil and the FSoA of course gobbles up most of it..
Here's how it breaks down by sector for the FSoA
So you're really just talking a smsll percentage of a medium percentage of the electricity generated globally moving to renewables, and really not until you make a significant dent into the transportation sector are you meaningfully addressing the cultural dependence on FFs.
So, it really does come down to how fast a transition to battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell, ICE Hydrogen and ICE Biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, wood gas, methane digester) can be effected to see how many total people wil die before the situation stabilizes.
Prior to the last couple of weeks reading about the various renewable projects being built around the world along with the various relatively low tech LDES systems that are being developed, my general feeling was we were doomed to a 99% or more Dieoff of the population of Homo Saps before we might stabilize at <100M remaining. Now I think it's at least plausible it could be as much as 10% left, so 800M.
Of course, there's still a whole lot of reasons it can be much worse, famine and disease being the main ones which will exact a big death toll once dieoff begins to accelerate and the medical system is overwhelmed. But nevertheless, I have a little more hopium this week. :)
https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/7/24151375/renewable-energy-global-electricity-report-us-gas
The US is propping up gas while the world moves to renewable energy
RE