Quote from: TDoS on May 18, 2024, 07:14 AMWe are discussing doomer scenarios....WAGs are all there is.

Without any data I'm not going to set a timeline.  I am not and never have been a "Peak Oiler".  My only connection to PO is my participation on the forum as Rogue Economist.  My interest in economic collapse crossed over with their interest in the decreasing per capita energy consumption.

In terms of "failure", the fact timelines aren't spot on isn't failure, just means all the data wasn't accounted for and/or there have been discontinuties affecting the rate of change.  One such discontinuity was tight oil production.  Rather than failing, most of what was predicted is coming true, though it's mostly happening in South and Central America right now, which is why they are running up here in ever increasing numbers.

I never said anything about stagflation, I mentioned stagnation, which was in reference to wages and income.  It began in the 80s, more or less.  Who was POTUS is irrelevant.  I also don't say card counting changes anything, it's just an analogy.  Of course it's just a game and there are fewer variables so it's easier to make predictions.  Far as outcomes are concerned, even though the variables are many, the outcomes are limited.  Thing could get better slowly or quickly; or they could get worse slowly or quickly.  I'll discount the first 2 choices as likely.  Not enough data to make book on the other two.

RE