Quote from: RE on May 18, 2024, 09:47 AM

Quote from: TDoS on May 18, 2024, 07:14 AMWe are discussing doomer scenarios....WAGs are all there is.

Without any data I'm not going to set a timeline.  I am not and never have been a "Peak Oiler".

Well good for you then. The amount of egg on face those folks have accumulated would sink the Titanic at this point. Best to stay as far away as possible from that one.

Quote from: REIn terms of "failure", the fact timelines aren't spot on isn't failure, just means all the data wasn't accounted for and/or there have been discontinuties affecting the rate of change.

Okay...so when someone calls a time, and a volume, and gets it wrong it isn't failure. Would you volunteer that it is just incompetence, making a guess they knew was a WAG but pretending it time and volume certain? And then when the WAG didn't work out, and they did it again, with the same result, what would that be? Just stupid as a stump?

Quote from: REOne such discontinuity was tight oil production.  Rather than failing, most of what was predicted is coming true, though it's mostly happening in South and Central America right now, which is why they are running up here in ever increasing numbers.

So when tight oil production began being developed from shales in northern Pennsylvania between 1880-1900 (might have been in the 1860-1880 timeframe, it has been awhile since I checked my library on this one), that was a discontinuity? Strikes me that folks that knew some geology, like at least geologically trained peak oilers, certainly can't make that claim with a straight face. And if your point is BOY are they lousy at doing some basic research in historical geology about when tight oil from shale began development, I couldn't deny it. Footnote provided on request of course, from the mid-90s no less. So any peak oilers after that timeframe can't claim to be uninformed on this fact.

Quote from: REWho was POTUS is irrelevant.

The video seemed to take a different angle. Would you say his claim was materially wrong? He had quite a bit of causality assigned to Reagan there.