Quote from: RE

Quote from: TDos

Quote from: RE on May 19, 2024, 12:36 AMWithout any data I'm not going to set a timeline.  I am not and never have been a "Peak Oiler".

Well good for you then. The amount of egg on face those folks have accumulated would sink the Titanic at this point. Best to stay as far away as possible from that one.

Eh, you see it as more important than I do.

I don't see it as important at all, in the sense of volumes and a maximum somewhere along the way. Interesting technically, but peak oil at the end of the day is about the economics of its use, not the absolute volume at some point in time. I just happen to be well informed on this particular technical topic.

Quote from: REWe already agree (I think) that if you don't have all the data you won't get a perfect prediction.

I might venture there are no perfect predictions outside of mathematics, because it is designed that way. Hubbert's math was perfect on the theoretical side in this regard. And because of the data issue you mention, peak oil will only be known in hindsight. A minimum of 15 years of hindsight, because we DO have data that at the global level, old peaks can be reversed that far away in time. At the regional level, the time span is longer. US states for example have repeaked 80 years after the last one, and the US obviously sets the standard for nations at around half a century. 

Quote from: REI would volunteer that making absolute claims for anything in the future is a mistake, which I try not to make. 

You have seemed to be more careful on some specific claims in the future since the 2008 time frame, but I would argue that claims in the future are always made, at all levels, with or without data, by damn near everyone, every organization, etc etc. People need to figure out if they have money in the bank to pay rent at the end of the month, companies need to have a plan for payroll the next 6 months, governments have to guess at tax receipts, etc etc. So sure...absolute claims pin folks down, they can't get them right, but it still must be done, even if it is a binary solution set. "If that invoice gets paid and clears the bank before the end of the month, I can pay rent, otherwise, I can't." 

Quote from: REWhen you talk about future events, you should always speak in terms of probabilities. 

But of course. But folks don't very often do they? I know oil and gas projections from top flight experts that do this, by smart people who can. But most future events never include probability density functions propagating out into the future. Peak oilers were never smart enough to figure this out. Maybe they hedged on occasion with "give or take a few years" but that isn't a probability hedge, it is just a range without probabilities assigned.

Quote from: REIn order to impress upon people the gravity of the situation, doomers often fall into the trap of pitching out dates.  Dr. McStinksion is a great example of that.

Of course. Snake oil salesmen don't want you to think before reaching into your wallet and just handing them the money/clicks/subscriptions.

Guy was a joke dating back to his peak oil claims in 2008. And many peak oil talking heads have risen to the occasional over the years to be just like Guy.

Quote from: RE

Quote from: TDoS

Quote from: K-DogOne such discontinuity was tight oil production.  Rather than failing, most of what was predicted is coming true, though it's mostly happening in South and Central America right now, which is why they are running up here in ever increasing numbers.

So when tight oil production began being developed from shales in northern Pennsylvania between 1880-1900 (might have been in the 1860-1880 timeframe, it has been awhile since I checked my library on this one), that was a discontinuity? Strikes me that folks that knew some geology, like at least geologically trained peak oilers, certainly can't make that claim with a straight face. And if your point is BOY are they lousy at doing some basic research in historical geology about when tight oil from shale began development, I couldn't deny it. Footnote provided on request of course, from the mid-90s no less. So any peak oilers after that timeframe can't claim to be uninformed on this fact.

Tight oil was identified early on, and I recall you pointing out in the past that fracking isn't really new either.  However, it wasn't pursued at scale until quite late in the game, so its contribution to the total mix was insignificant until the last decade or two.  You can date Marcellus, Eagle Ford and all the formations properly for us.

Everything is relative. When natural gas from Devonian shale was lighting up Fredonia NY starting around 1825, it was ALL the production there was. The Mid-Ohio valley oil production was the Middle East of the world, late 1800's. Producing oil sourced from and contained within shales. Sure...not much by todays volumes....but in the time it was happening? The Middle East of the world.