Quote from: K-Dog on May 19, 2024, 11:10 AMTDOS is in the cooler? Fine then, I can make a claim about Peak Oil without the stench of denial blowing over it within the hour.
Peak Oil is real. TDOS forgets I bought the M. K. Hubbert biography, but there is little point in arguing incorrect facts with someone who denies reality, and takes things out of context.
Yah, besides that he's fond of using half-truths to validate the claim fracking technology has beeen around since the 1800s. In order to be really effective, fracking needs to be combined with horizontal drilling to be really effective in accessing oil trapped in non-permeable rock.
Horizontal drilling has been around since 1950s. Recent advances in equipment and in hydraulic fracturing techniques allowed the production of natural gas from previously inaccessible sources such as shale formations (Robbins, 2013). This new and significant increase in shale gas production opened novel research areas for process systems engineering (PSE) community, and it, in turn, benefited from PSE contributions (e.g., Tavallali et al., 2014; Cafaro and Grossmann, 2016; Drouven and Grossmann, 2016; Gao and You, 2017). For example, Cafaro and Grossmann (2016) presents a continuous-time nonlinear programming model and a multi-period mixed-integer programming model to solve refracturing planning problem for horizontal shale gas wells. The models determine which wells to refracture, and the frequency of refracturing and its schedule.
The equipment used for drilling in the 1800s was basically the same as what was used to drill a well for water. The first wells they hir were basically accidental, and they blew out under so much pressure from NG they fracked themselves. Drop some dynamite down the hole to frack some more.
While there was plenty of oil around in reservoirs that didn't need to be drilled horizontally and fracked at different strata, few bothered doing it because it's more expensive. The method didn't come into wide use until conventional oil reserves started running thin and Tdos and his buddies went to North Dakota to frack the living shit out of the Bakken formation.
The North Dakota oil boom was the period of rapidly expanding oil extraction from the Bakken Formation in the state of North Dakota that lasted from the discovery of Parshall Oil Field in 2006, and peaked in 2012,[1][2] but with substantially less growth noted since 2015 due to a global decline in oil prices.[3]
The oil boom was largely due to the successful use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which made unconventional tight oil deposits recoverable.[4] Contributing to the boom was a push to commence drilling and production on oil and gas leases before the expiration of their primary term, commonly three to five years, at which time the leases would terminate unless a producing well was drilled on the lease. But once production was established, the leases continued as long as oil and gas were continually produced.
The boom created new jobs and economic growth in tandem with long-lasting negative effects, such as environmental degredation, pollution, infrastructure collapse, and an increased rate of sexual assault and other violent crime perpetrated by workers living in the area's "man camps" against Indigenous women and children in neighboring reservations.
This biz took off in 2006, right when Peak Oil interest began growing in the blogosphere, and has been used ever since by Tdos as the evidence that Peak Oil is wrong, there's plenty of oil out there to be fracked, so stop the doom talk already, OK? lol.
As it turns out, the wells depleted rather rapidly, the massive amount of debt to do it went underwater when prices dropped back down, and since then the oil companies have been a lot more conservative in the fracking adventures. Now, the debt and investment is flowing toward the Green Energy Hopium crowd, which is why we get this non-stop parade of articles about new Batt tech, Fuel Cells, Hydrogen and Fusion. They know fracking isn't a solution, so they're going balls to the wall with "clean renewable" energy.
Despite this fairly obvious turn of events, Tdos has been trolling websites so long claiming Peak Oil was bogus and everyone who made predictions were idiots that he just can't let go of it and move on. What he should be doing now is debunking all the bullshit claims about Fusion power and Hydrogen substituting for FFs, that is the current meme, not Peak Oil. That's ancient history.
From where I sit, the Renewables Hopium cohort has done a surprisingly good job of building Solar & Wind capacity as well as LDES to support that when the sun don't shine and the wing don't blow. Despite this, there's still no way alternative energy can fully replace FFs at the current leveel of per capita consumption in 10 years. So we are likely to take a significant hit at that time, if not before since the monetary system is seriously on the rocks and a more proximal problem. Latest there is the Chinese have accelerated their dumping of USTs and the BRICS are closer to issuing a distributed currency based on blockchain technology.
So anyhow, I gave him another brief trip to the cooler because yet another trip down memory lane on the subject of Peak Oil remains tiresome, and basically irrelevant at this point. Everybody Knows oil can't cover the energy demands projected for the decade to come. In all likelihood, the demand won't be there, it will be destroyed first. Growth numbers predicted for many if not all countries won't be met.
The 3rd Quarter of 2024 is a recent date I went out on a limb to predict for recession. I felt I had enough data last year to make that call. I could be wrong of course, but 3rd quarter begins at the end of June, so we'll see if we start heading south sooner rather than later.
RE