My confidence level in a recession beginning in the 3rd Quarter has now increasedto the point I think it's time to give it a thread of its own.  :) The decreasing M2 money supply since last year was the key indicator, and Da Fed's inability to lower interest rates due to stubbornly persistent inflation have made this a nearly inevitable outcome.

More obvious signs like rising unemployment and more bankruptcies are making the predictions come out from the "experts" more frequently now, so it looks like I will be able to chalk this up in the Win column for my prognostications.  8)

How deep and how long it will last are open questions, but my suspicions are it will be a pretty tough one.  That means even MOAR Homeless folks pitching their tents in the Mall parking lots as well as a likely defeat for Uncle Joe at the polls if he doesn't wise up and drop out of the race in favor of the Lady Obamanator.

You heard it here first.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-recession-unemployment-lazar-states-inflation-wealth-spending-2024-5

Recession seems almost certain with 19 states in trouble already, expert warns

RE