Well, maybe we can finally be finished with Peak Oil prediction arguments since the Big Kahuna organization of the IEA has dropped on their prediction that demand will peak before 2030.  :)

"Many large organisations think Peak Oil Demand will happen this decade or the 2030s. This includes the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has predicted demand for oil will peak before 2030."

It will be a relief to finally finish the 15 year beating of that dead horse.  ::)

Peak Oil Production on the other hand appears to have passed its all-time global peak back in Nov of 2018.

Obviously your production can exceed demand, in which case the excess could be put into storage, but demand can't exceed production by very much or for very long, because you'll run out of the oil in storage.  Any demand greater than what you can produce has to be DESTROYED.

So, what the IEA is telling us with their prediction is that inside the next 6 years there will be enough Demand Destruction for Oil that further increases in production will be unnecessary.  Thus by this logic New Zealand should not waste taxpayer money to incentivize further oil production.

The question is of course, how do you continue to have economic GROWTH if the demand for oil is being destroyed?  The article answers this question by telling us that renewables and electrification will be replacing the oil as the demand destruction moves forward.

The government's decisions go against projections by many sources, including the International Energy Agency, that demand for oil will decline soon as we electrify the global transport fleet. Consequently, investment in oil exploration is projected to decline too.

Are we really electrifying the transportation fleet fast enough that it will destroy enough demand so that the wheels can keep rolling as the oil stops pumping?  While also producing enough electricity to supply all those AI powered Data Centers the Billionaires want to build?  By 2030?

Since this seems unlikely, how else can we destroy the demand for oil before 2030 as the EIA predicts?  Answer, we stop driving and turn off enough lights so the demand goes away!  IOW, what the EIA is predicting is a global recession before 2030.  Because that's really the only way the oil demand will disappear that fast.

So who and where gets to stop driving and dim the bulbs to achieve this is the problem, and if Kiwis don't want to be one of the lucky countries that sees gas shortages and blackouts because they can't import enough FFs they would be well advised to try and keep pumping their own supply locally.  Unfortunately they have the same problem we have here with Cook Inlet NG, the wells aren't producing enough anymore.  Like us also though, it will take a while to get new wells producing even if they start looking now.

Any countries which are not Net Exporters of FFs are going to be the lucky ones who lead the 600 of the Light Brigade into lights off in the Valley of Death, because the importers are all going to be competing for the diminishing supply first.  This is going to make situations in many 3rd world countries go from already really bad to much, much worse.  That means more refugees and more conflicts.  The long awaited consequences of Peak Oil.

https://theconversation.com/global-demand-for-oil-could-peak-soon-nzs-plan-to-revive-offshore-exploration-doesnt-add-up-232154

Global demand for oil could peak soon – NZ's plan to revive offshore exploration doesn't add up

RE