Not unexpectedly, more experts have surfaced to dispute the IEAs prediction of Near Term Peak Oil (NTPO), which they have apparently rolled back from 2030 to 2029.  This comes in a new report, where they ALSO predict it will result in a SUPPLY GLUT for the next decade!!!  :o  :o  :o

"This report's projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

Seems counter intuitive doesn't it, the demand will drop off while there's still plenty of oil, right?  The only way that happens is if people can't afford to buy it, which IOW means recession.

In general if that happens to any commodity, they simply lower the price to sell more of it.  Supply-Demand, Econ 101.  The problem for Oil is they are at their ROCK BOTTOM price now for selling it and still turn a profit.  So instead of selling it at a loss, they'll stop pumping it.  The capacity is there to produce more, but not at a cheap enough price that people can afford to buy it.  That's what they mean by supply glut.  In this sense, that glut will always exist.

Also predicted here is not to worry about a Seneca Cliff, it will be a slow decline.

"It's important to keep in mind that a peak does not necessarily mean a rapid precipice. It much more likely looks like a slow decline, and that, you know, if it is a slow decline, is much easier to manage than a precipice," he said.

So, it looks like we'll have at least 4 MOAR years of battle until 2030 to see when the demand drops off. Except what you get in your graphs is not a demand curve, but a supply curve, which is generated after each quarter and they tally all the barrels that were produced globally.  The supply curve already hit the peak in Nov 2018.  The most up-to-date graph I can find on that goes to only Jan of 2023.  Still under Nov 2018.



So all we can do here now is watch the production graph, which if the Slow Catabolic Collapse JMG scenario is correct will have a gentle downward slope, and if the Ugo's Seneca prediction is right will go south in a hurry.  It will take a while to get back the production numbers to see how fast it actually does fall off.  That will depend on how deep the recession gets.  Stay tuned to the Diner for up-to-date reporting as the Collapse gets rolling in earnest!  ;D

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/06/13/iea-opec-global-oil-demand-peak-predictions/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12/

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