Quote from: RE on Jul 05, 2024, 06:26 AMQuote from: Knarf on Jul 05, 2024, 03:52 AMThis is a pretty sane conversation on Reddit. Some realistic vision. See what you all think the "Reddit" crowd is thinking about the 6th Mass Extinction.
It's nice to know there is some decent discussion going on at r/collapse, however my history with the moderators there makes it impossible to participate on that forum. I could of course use a new screen ID, but I'd eventually get in an argument with one of them and get banned again. Do you post there at all?
RE
OK, I dropped on a reply using a different email address. They apparently automatically assign screen IDs now. I am Clean Lettuce 5499.
As numerous redditors point out, collapse is already here, so avoiding it is no longer possible. Now the relevant questions are:
1-How fast will it progress?
2-What percentage of the population will be eliminated before it hits bottom and some kind of recovery becomes possible, or will it progress steadily to a Near Tern Human Extinction (NTHE)?
3-How far down the technological ladder will we regress before it stabilizes, if it stabilizes?
4-Is there any means to slow down the progress of collapse and/or affect the final population knockdown percentage to leave a greater number of people alive and the survivors at a higher standard of living?
5-Are there any effective strategies the individual can pursue to maximize their own chance to live out a normal lifespan?
6-Are there social and/or political strategies that should be implemented to improve the possible outcome in terms of number of people or standard of living as the collapse progresses.
There are I am sure other questions you could come up with, but these are the main ones to deal with first. Each question has both long and short answers possible and more than one possible correct answer. There are also interrelationships that make different outcomes possible. I'll just give short answers right now with what looks like the highest probability to each question.
1- Pretty fast, on the civilization scale, Within a couple of generations total global population will be reduced by half or more. Most of the remaining population will at best have an 18th century level of technology and standard of living. A small number of elite may retain access to electricity and some modern technology.
2- Hitting bottom will take a relatively long time and there may be plateaus along the way down. Eventually total population of Homo Sapiens will drop by 1-3 orders of magnitude before it stabilizes with a chance to rebound. That means a remaining population of between 8 to 800 million meat packages ambulatory at the same time.
3- Over the long term, Paleolithic level. Nearer term, 19th century technology can be retained.
4- Absolutely. It will depend very much on whether active policies are engaged to combat the emerging problems and what those policies are. Some of them may be policies people currently find repulsive. A simple example from Sci-Fi would be Soylent Green factories producing food from dead people. Another would be purposeful introduction of a virus to selectively eliminate portions of the population. Withholding medical care from the old and premature infants. Wars will definitely factor in to how many are left. Generally, policies which favor cooperation and working for the common good would enhance the number of survivors. Eliminating a larger number of people would enhance the standard of living those left alive would enjoy. Do the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or does the comfort of the few outweigh the needs of the many?
5-Definitely. Live in a low population zone with good natural resources, at least 10 meters above sea level. Stay in good physical condition and health. Make friends and plan for emergency situations such as civil war or food rationing.
6-Nothing through normal political channels will work. Only revolution will get rid of the current systems that are the cause of the problems.
RE