Quote from: RE on Nov 30, 2024, 06:42 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Nov 30, 2024, 06:04 PMWere you taught this perspective by someone, or did you learn it on
But I'm not paid to match up against what newspapers print. They "know" as much stupid shit as the internet does with it comes to the intersection of science, analytic thought, analysis and econometric modeling. Throw in appropriate expression of outcomes and the playing field is relatively thin.

It's an important detail because it's worthwhile to know who is pitching out clearly bad predictions.

"Bad" is a relative concept. $10 +/- in a given future year probably doesn't qualify.

Quote from: REWho are they and why does Reuters poll this particular set of experts, then publish the poll which a rag like OilPrice.com goes and reports?  They must be trying to influence investors, I can't think of another reason to do that.  So in effect somebody is perpetrating a fraud although you couldn't prove that legally.
RE

You presume intent where none may exist. If you aren't a big name (you seriously think Gail The Actuary is a name?) you might write for some of these rags because you get name recognition. The information they work with? Unlikely to be raw data. Scrape websites of companies and state web pages maybe? Might not have the skills to use it if they did. So they take free EIA/IEA/OPEC reports and data and weave a story as best they can. No rigging of market desires or anything else, just best efforts.

What do you think their information budget might even be? Next to nothing? Which is why they use all the free stuff, and oftentimes themselves read the writings of others, mix in some personal take or spin, call that "research" and write it up.
 
There are analysts out there who are just doing the best they can with what they've got. "Influence" investors? You don't think the investors who are good at what they do? I say those BCG folks are damn shitfire on top of things. And they know the difference between Gail telling them we are all doomed...because of high oil price...oops...no...because of low oil prices...oops...its about ALL energy....ad infinitum...and those worth top dollar for their work. And you don't find them handing that out for free.