It appears Da Goobermints in Eurotrashland are taking seriously the possiblity of the war in Ukraine expanding, particularly in the Baltic and Scandinavian states.  They're pushing civilian readiness and prepping for wartime shortages and deprivation.

Now, I can't see Vlad the Impaler pulling an invasion stunt in Finland or Sweden like in Ukraine, but if these countries accept and deploy NATO missiles on the Ruskie border, he's definitely going to retaliate somehow.  The most obvious method is to cut off their supply of NG, but given the fact that the FSoA has ramped up the ability to export this stuff that actually plays into the hands of the energy companies.    It would certainly raise the price of the gas, and if he doesn't sell it he loses the income from it.  So if an embargo of gas isn't a viable retaliation, what other choices does he have?

In reality, Ukraine shows that invasion isn't really an option for anybody anymore on either side of these conflicts, and the real problem as far as wartime levels of deprivation come as consequences of the economic warfare which is ongoing.  This war is being fought by denying access to credit which starves a country of the FOREX needed to buy various energy products.  Cuba is the Canary in the Coal Mine, but any country that's not  energy self-sufficient is vulnerable to the political pressure from the supply side countries, namely the FSoA and Mother Russia primarily.

The result of this is that it's becoming clear how the reduction of energy consumption is being managed, which is by forcing smaller countries into a wartime economy.  The problem of course is that this is slowing down the Consumption economy globally, leading to the counter-intuitive result of a surplus of energy resources in the supply side countries.  Thus we get the $65 oil, which despite being incredibly cheap highly indebted countries in Africa, Asia, South America and now even Europe can't afford.  If you consider how much inflation there has been over the last decade (28.73%), $65 today is the equivalent of about $50 in 2014 dollars.  Inflation since 1984 has been 200%, so that is about $22 oil in 1984 dollars.  Actual price of oil in 1984 was $28.  So taking into account inflation, oil is actually CHEAPER than it was 40 years ago! lol.

Despite the fact the oil (and NG) is so cheap, the countries and consumers in these countries are losing access to the credit needed to buy it.  The way the energy shortage manifests itself is by a shortage of credit, not a shortage of the actual product.  Isn't that interesting?

Anyhow, despite the fear mongering ongoing in Sweden & Finland, it's highly unlikely IMHO that Vlad will invade either country or that NATO will lob a Nuke onto the Kremlin.  They will however begin experiencing Brownouts & Blackouyts as though war was ongoing.  Which it is, but it's happening inside the board rooms of the WTO, the IMF and the restauraants in Davos, Switzerland.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/29/would-you-survive-72-hours-germany-and-the-nordic-countries-prepare-citizens-for-possible-war

'Would you survive 72 hours?' Germany and the Nordic countries prepare citizens for possible war

RE