Quote from: comrade simba on Jan 20, 2025, 04:35 PMI don't do much arguing... I'll just ask K-Dog if he thinks population will continue to rise. I figure it has topped out at 8 billion, with no way of knowing how long it will plateau there. Knowing where someone stands on an issue is numero uno for dialogue.

Argument is a regular feature of the Diner.  Generally we have strong opinions and we tend to defend them vigorously when a contrary opinion is expressed.

I'm not answering for Kdog, but I'm pretty sure we have a similar opinion. Globally, we are probably still increasing population, but barely.  Fertility rates are dropping everywhere, so growth will probably turn negative within the decade.  Population will then begin dropping slowly until we hit a systemic bump that interferes with food production or distribution, or a global pandemic, or global warfare either between countries or multiple civil wars and revolutions.  Then there will be a rapid population drop 20% or more over a couple of years.  10-20 years at the outside IMHO.

Quote]I know when I'm wrong... I can't know for sure when someone else is. If I'm wrong that doesn't make the opposite correct... both may be wrong. Fuckin' swans :-D

If you know when you are right and  the other person holds the opposite view, then you know he is wrong.  Do you know when you're right?

QuoteHubbert's graph peaks at 12.5 billion barrels a year. He just stopped the upward slope of the bell curve too soon. The real thing to be argued is when the top of the curve is / will be reached. I personally figure the west's reserves will decline (frak magic no more) at the same rate arctic/Russian oil will come on line. Decay in the west, progress in the ROW for a generation (13 - 20 years)

Tdos is obsessed with demonstrating Hubbert and everyone else who predicted Peak Oil and collapse was wrong.  So he quibbles over timeline issues that have been predicted.  As things turned out, extend and pretend has kept BAU sputtering along the last 15 years, causing many people to believe we'll figure a way out of a crash.  My opinion is it has just been delayed, and right now we see things starting to spin out of control again and an acceleration of the political, economic, climate and energy problems that will at some point reach critical mass.  Exactly when is hard to pinpoint, so putting a timeline on it is tough.  The main question these days since most of us here are geriatrics is whether rapid unravelling will happen before we ourselves are pushing up daisies.  Not real important though, since whether it happens in 10 years or 50, it's coming.

RE