Actually, the 3rd leg isn't general Federal spending, it's mainly the Military, which isn't really being cut despite the political firing of generals.  The $2B Medicaid money is important, but it's unlikely that will be completely cut, though a reduction would obviously hurt.  The most I would expect could be pushed through is half that, around $1B.   This would still create havoc, but it wouldn't collapse the economy.

As long as the Military maintains its airbases and they're still pumping oil and/or NG if they get a gas pipeline funded, the personnel will push enough money out of their paychecks through the secondary consumer economy to keep up tax revenues and keep the state sputtering along.

Education will likely take a big cut and the already piss poor medical system will get worse.  This will probably lead to folks not in the military or oil biz moving out to the lower 48, along with many of the old folks needing a semi functional medical system.  With fewer people to pay out to and cutting the size of the PFD, the state should have enough revenue to keep basic services running.

Upshot, at this point I'm still not excessively worried about the ongoing havoc hitting me directly for the next year or so, further out than that is impossible to  tell because so many factors are in play, including the global and national economies and political nonsense.  The only thing I have changed is right now I'm not looking to move out since that would involve changing my Medicaid status.  Best not to rock the boat at this point.  If/when my situation is directly threatened, then I go to Plans B, C or D.

https://alaskabeacon.com/2025/03/12/trump-is-undermining-alaskas-economy-by-removing-one-leg-of-a-three-legged-stool/

RE