Quote from: RE on Apr 04, 2025, 01:54 PM

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Apr 04, 2025, 04:22 AMI keep an open mind on whether this will work for the US. Some industries like cabinet making and clothing I think could work. Keep in mind how many things were formerly made locally before globalisation, so it isn't impossible.

There is no scenario under which the increased tariffs will benefit the Amerikan Economy.  The revenue derived will be marginal due to depressed demand.  Even if some industries built new factories here it wouldn't lead to high paying jobs.  Any new factories will be mostly robotic.  The days of high paid workers on automobile production lines are history.  Stuff we export will have retaliatory tariffs placed on them.

The reduction in GDP from job losses will lead to decreased revenue from income taxes, which will increase the federal deficit, necessitating more borrowing at higher interest rates.  Finding buyers for USTs will become more difficult, increasing the likelihood of default.

In short, this is a 1st Class Clusterfuck.  A global depression is the best case scenario.  A full crash of the monetary system is not out of the question.

RE

Its hard to know exactly what is going on, so Im open to unknown variables at play. Benefitting the US economy can be short term, longer term or not the objective. What could be another objective?

Going from radio news soundbites I gleaned the following in the past week. Trump says EU send the US cars, but the EU won't take American cars. A few days later I hear him say of Oz "we buy X$ of beef from them and they won't take any of ours".


American cars are too big and thirsty for Europe, never mind comfort biased chassis dynamics, fine for US roads. Im guessing though, the EU has a trade surplus to the US.

There is going to be a cohort of US consumers who want guaranteed GMO free beef and are prepared to pay for it freighted from Oz.

I cant speak for Europe, but I can speak for what i see in Oz. Trump himself may not have thought about this, but you cant tell me Foreign secretary Rubio, would not know.

Go through confectionery aisle and there are majority American names,Cadbury, Hersheys, Whittakers. There are probably many other products 

Boomers ride ridiculously expensive. Harley Davidson and Indian motorcycles. Made in China, but still American owned.

They also frequently choose a GMC or RAM truck to tow or just show off.

Australia exported some cars to the US owned by Japanese or US parent companies until the whole car industry shut down, Ford and GM being the last in 2016 and 2018. US imports then filled the demand for petrol V8s with mustangs, camaros and chargers.

Most of the antidepressants and other psychoactive pharmaceuticals mass prescribed are US brands.

Jack Daniels, Jim Beam, Wild Turkey consumed en mass.

Get on jet for a domestic flight and its a decent chance of being a Boeing or Douglas.


Any one of those would outweigh beef exports in $ and the US doesn't need other main products the US also produces like cotton, wheat, gas. Placing tariffs on even a country where the US has the trade surplus could have a different reason.

Speaking of cotton and gas, most of our clothes are made in asian sweat shops running on imported coal or gas. As i see it, a seamstress probably conpletetes around 20 👖 or 👕 in an hour, so if she makes  30$ hr instead of 3$ , it adds no more than 2$ per item to the cost. Factoring in not shipping the cotton and energy across the world and shipping the shirt back probably cancels out the 2$. The more automated the factory is, should be even better in saving for a domestic, not export market.

Are oranges 🍊 still grown in the US? theyre not grown in Australia unless you have an orange tree. There is no way that was done to save cost. There were big, fresh oranges grown locally and plentifully at about 1$ kilo until the orchards were all bulldozed. Now small, old and often rotten imported oranges from an ocean away are at least 3$/kg. Dairy farmers now complain of the same process being put out of business. Its globalisation for globalisation sake. We may be witnessing an attempt to reverse as far as possible that process because of future blockades on 🚢 shipping in war.