Quote from: RE on Apr 17, 2025, 12:13 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 17, 2025, 07:49 AMChina being "toast", a decade or so back on the diner, wasn't really presented as a narrow statement, it tended to more inclusive of overall economic decline/demise.

My "China is TOAST" tag line is a broad statement that goes beyond just economics to environmental, ecological and social problems as well.



In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe.

These findings come from our new water quality report, which found water pollution levels in China's other major cities are also extremely high. In Beijing, 39.9% of water was so polluted that it was essentially functionless. In Tianjin, northern China's principal port city and home to 15 million people, a mere 4.9% of water is usable as a drinking water source.
....
Across China, access to drinkable water is not just a quality of life issue, it's about survival. There have been reports of local authorities digging deeper wells to reach drinkable water, which has become harder to come by as 80% of groundwater from major river basins is "unsuitable for human contact".


The problems with the water have knock on effects extend to the food supply and energy production.   

https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/how-chinas-water-challenges-could-lead-global-food-and-supply-chain-crisis

China is on the brink of a water catastrophe that could have devastating consequences for global food security, energy markets and supply chains. The 2022 drought, which mainly impacted China's Sichuan province, offered an uncomfortable preview of what the future could bring if water supplies continue to run dry: Low reservoir levels slashed hydroelectricity output, which in turn forced power rationing to major industrial consumers such as metals and battery producers and electronics assemblers
....

Beijing has the dubious distinction of being the capital of the world's second-largest economy, while having per capita water supplies that have fallen to a level on par with those of cities near Chile's Atacama Desert — the driest place on Earth

Besides the water pollution issues, the air quality problems are legendary.  Pictures are better than words on this one.







While all the industrial countries have demographic problems due to falling birthrates, China's are particularly severe due to the ageing population and the years of the one-child policy, which resulted in a preponderance of male children.

China is far from alone in facing the problem of too many old people and too few young workers to support them. But unlike western nations, it is getting old before it has got rich. The scale of the challenge and the speed at which it is arriving are extraordinary, thanks in large part to the decades of birth restrictions known as the one-child policy. It also means that fewer retirees are able to count on their kids supporting them.

Unlike Western countries which are making up for falling birth rates with immigration, China's population is already shrinking.  This means more retirees and fewer people of working age, for whom there are no jobs anyhow.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-ageing-population-an-economic-and-social-conundrum

Like the west China has played the extend & pretend game issuing vast quantities of debt much of which doesn't appear on the books because it's contained in the shadow banking system.  Combined with their real estate problem, it lurks in the background and with the global problems being created by Trump's tariff war could jump out of the closet if economic growth stalls.''

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/business/china-economy-trusts-zhongrong-zhongzhi.html

Now, given the arrival of the Trumperator on the scene in Amerika, in the race to the bottom of the burnt toaster bin, the FSoA may have now edged ahead of China as toast.  The prognosis is not too good for anyone these days.  A grass hut on the beach of Bora Bora has real appeal.



RE
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Quote from: RE on Apr 17, 2025, 12:13 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 17, 2025, 07:49 AMChina being "toast", a decade or so back on the diner, wasn't really presented as a narrow statement, it tended to more inclusive of overall economic decline/demise.

My "China is TOAST" tag line is a broad statement that goes beyond just economics to environmental, ecological and social problems as well.



In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe.

These findings come from our new water quality report, which found water pollution levels in China's other major cities are also extremely high. In Beijing, 39.9% of water was so polluted that it was essentially functionless. In Tianjin, northern China's principal port city and home to 15 million people, a mere 4.9% of water is usable as a drinking water source.
....
Across China, access to drinkable water is not just a quality of life issue, it's about survival. There have been reports of local authorities digging deeper wells to reach drinkable water, which has become harder to come by as 80% of groundwater from major river basins is "unsuitable for human contact".


The problems with the water have knock on effects extend to the food supply and energy production.   

https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/how-chinas-water-challenges-could-lead-global-food-and-supply-chain-crisis

China is on the brink of a water catastrophe that could have devastating consequences for global food security, energy markets and supply chains. The 2022 drought, which mainly impacted China's Sichuan province, offered an uncomfortable preview of what the future could bring if water supplies continue to run dry: Low reservoir levels slashed hydroelectricity output, which in turn forced power rationing to major industrial consumers such as metals and battery producers and electronics assemblers
....

Beijing has the dubious distinction of being the capital of the world's second-largest economy, while having per capita water supplies that have fallen to a level on par with those of cities near Chile's Atacama Desert — the driest place on Earth

Besides the water pollution issues, the air quality problems are legendary.  Pictures are better than words on this one.







While all the industrial countries have demographic problems due to falling birthrates, China's are particularly severe due to the ageing population and the years of the one-child policy, which resulted in a preponderance of male children.

China is far from alone in facing the problem of too many old people and too few young workers to support them. But unlike western nations, it is getting old before it has got rich. The scale of the challenge and the speed at which it is arriving are extraordinary, thanks in large part to the decades of birth restrictions known as the one-child policy. It also means that fewer retirees are able to count on their kids supporting them.

Unlike Western countries which are making up for falling birth rates with immigration, China's population is already shrinking.  This means more retirees and fewer people of working age, for whom there are no jobs anyhow.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-ageing-population-an-economic-and-social-conundrum

Like the west China has played the extend & pretend game issuing vast quantities of debt much of which doesn't appear on the books because it's contained in the shadow banking system.  Combined with their real estate problem, it lurks in the background and with the global problems being created by Trump's tariff war could jump out of the closet if economic growth stalls.''

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/business/china-economy-trusts-zhongrong-zhongzhi.html

Now, given the arrival of the Trumperator on the scene in Amerika, in the race to the bottom of the burnt toaster bin, the FSoA may have now edged ahead of China as toast.  The prognosis is not too good for anyone these days.  A grass hut on the beach of Bora Bora has real appeal.



RE

BAU is unsustainable, but  boom taking a downturn is doom.  A lot of these are the same things said about China since the 90s.

They're building empty cities so toast.  no now they have a real estate problem. Just like adult kids living with parents in western countries, chinese who cant find work to pay high rent in the city move back to the country and live with family.


Nobody is dying of thirst from the water. Nobody is poisoned enough to make a dent in lifespan and have a lot of birth defect or premature death. I never got sick eating in China.
They cleaned up air quality a lot. Water rights in other countries were bought long ago, including the Great Lakes.

Full employment is doom because of limits to growth and resources with BAU being unsustainable. 20% youth unemployment in a recession is NO jobs. A shrinking population to track any job losses is also a problem, because the young need to pay for a totally different culture and system of care. Do they rely on a 401k and social security, or do they just come in from working in the fields and get looked after by adult children, the way it was done for millenia? No artificial life extension except maybe glycerine pills for blood pressure. Has china started opening nursing homes and a ton of assistance for staying at home. Yes, and without the ridiculous expense of our care facilities. Do they have robots  who don't strain their back helping grandma get out of bed in a new care home?

Is a gender imbalance of a few million young men from 1 child policy a great benefit for going into war?

 
Even in the west, the boomers are dying without bankrupting the system and the following generations were supposed to be too small in number to support them. Turns out boomer care is not much of a slice of the debt pie after all when the family homes get signed over. Once again people coming from hardship do the work and wipe the white geezer asses for 22$/hr and still send money home to their own family.