Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 04, 2025, 04:31 PMEIA models assume some continued growth before decline sets in.

Looks that way. It has happened before. Decline setting in.

2015.2020. Most recent STEO says Q4 2025 and decline after.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=30&f=Q&s=&start=200001&end=202604&id=&maptype=0&ctype=linechart&linechart=~COPRPUS&map=

Quote from: K-DogThe EIA assumes continued investment, no geopolitical disruption, and no massive demand collapse.

Pretty much BAU. They sometimes do scenarios of high/low resource and various other types of things, prices and whatnot. They tend to focus on econometric models, and don't get involved much, by design and definition, with more than "legs and regs" as they put it. Legislation and Regulation.

Additionally, one of the only global peak oil estimates of the early 21st century that hasn't been discredited yet is the one the EIA did, based on USGS resource assessments.

They don't do stochastic much though. The lead modeler they had from around 2012 through 2018 or so was pure genius. He was responsible in part for getting their global oil and gas model built, which ended up answering the global peak oil issue some years ago, I think after he left.

Quote from: K-DogCloset self-serving doomers with an Armageddon complex are running the country.

I was under the impression that an orange dementia addled geriatric was running the country. Doomers anything have been in hiding for awhile now. Hell, resilience.org can't even get a good doom topic going as of late, they've about abandoned the peak oil angle altogether.