Quote from: RE on Dec 14, 2025, 12:16 AMControlling Venezuela would be a bit more problematic than simply dropping down a few Special Ops teams to guard the Oil extraction and transport systems.

QuoteOh, I was being a bit facetious on the effort involved in holding the land, focusing instead of keeping the military penned up where they usually are while denigrating their overall capabilities.

The mountainous areas are generally in the North, the Orinoco Basin is more savanas and grasslands, with occasional flooding and marshes thrown in.

Quote from: K-REGiven the terrain and vegetation, you're looking at a guerrilla style war similar to Vietnam.

With the inclusion of one item you didn't mention.....a people willing to go all the way to the mat with the US and basically wear them down not militarily, but psychologically. What might the political will of the Veneuelan people be like? One thing we know for sure....they voted for someone else.....that someone else won....AND THE CITIZENS DIDN'T HAVE THE CAJONES TO KICK HIS ASS OUT THEMSELVES. That gives at least some hint as to their political will, let alone betting their lives against American military hardware protecting XOM in this scenario.

Quote from: REGetting public support for putting minimum say 10K boots on the ground to hold the Oil facilities and safely produce and ship it out would be very expensive in dollars and lives.  The oil is expensive to extract even without that.

Expensive compared to the Lucas discovery well of Spindletop Field, sure. But the Orinoco is SHALLOW, and unlike other oils of its gravity, it has a lower than expected viscosity. In other words, for a heavy/extra heavy crude, it flows easier than others. Combine that with shallow and this isn't much different than straight up Canadian SAGD processes. Kids stuff. Costs more, yes. Canadian makes it work to the tune of millions of barrels a day, so technical challenge isn't much of a consideration at all.

Finding dilutants might be an issue because of lack of local availability, but XOM can solve that as well...plenty of it available in the US's surplus of light sweet to change one fluid to something that matches a required assay for a refinery.

Quote from: REI also suspect thee Chinese and/or Ruskies would supply the guerillas from Colombia, Peru or Chile.  It definitely would inspire the Chinese to take over Taiwan and the South China Sea if we had the military bogged down Vz.

That would be an interesting scenario after XOM goes to town. Let them have the South China Sea, the amount of oil resources controlled by the US and Canada would dwarf the rest of the world combined. OPEC+ would have the easy oil....but not near as much.

Quote from: REGotta think a few steps ahead here.
RE

Indeed. I wonder what the Orange One can engineer to justify a 500 mile deep incursion into Canada, like 101st Airborne capture of Fort McMurray, and some tank divisions striking straight north out of Montana.