Quote from: RE on Today at 05:25 AMSteve Ludlum of Economic Undertow.  Famous for his Triangle of Doom charts.

Interesting chart. Appears to be built on argument more than anything else. I'm more of a hard science guy.

Here is an example of a single play, if built for all the producing regions/countries/plays of the world, allows for a flexible stochastic model to be built to discuss price/supply/demand and whatnot.

They are hard to find, the ability to build even a single one can be substantial in terms of data and whatnot, which is why you find them more among those with the data, the EIA and their IEO and WEPS system, sometimes the USGS for at least the US (they have a method, not sure I've seen it applied for all plays as they don't get too deep into economics usually, certainly Rystad has a fully functioning global model as well. I forget what my set costs, but it ain't cheap. It also allows individual customer scenario analysis.

This is one of few the EIA let out the door, they also have better ones, but the last time I saw the internals of their system was like 2018 or so at s World Energy Modeling COnfernece in Maryland. Terribly smart people and with data and insight to boot.

Quote from: RELots of folks got into prepping though and building resilience, which is something you can actually do. 

Remember Pops the moderator at peakoil.com? He ran off to Missouri to do farming way back when. Then in remodeling his farm house he got good at it, moved back to California, did more remodeling than farming and jumped back into the normal economic system with his remodeling gig, as being a farmer and no peak oil effects showing up as predicted sort of took the need out of the survival aspects.

Nicole fled with a nicer gang of educated folks in Australia hiding out from Doom as well, it didn't last but a year or two before financial shenanigans or personal incompatibilities caused the entire thing to implode. It made the papers and everything.

Very few of the communal gang type angles ever worked that I am aware of. When I used to do interviews of these folks it was one of the interesting aspects, that the idea seemed reasonable (Hey! Lets become farmers together!) but in the application? Farming...be HARD. And then no PO shows up....hell I'm going back to teaching community ocllege or whatever, and getting me a hybrid!