Quote from: TDoS on Mar 10, 2026, 06:31 PMI'm willing to give it a few months before your definition of collapse shows up. Eat, drink and be merry because in a few months....want to make a bet on it happening?
As I recall I posted an AI generated definition which seemed reasonable. Here's another.
Societal collapse is rarely a single, sudden event; it is often described as a "death from a thousand cuts" involving the gradual erosion of a society's foundations
. Researchers in collapsology and history identify several recurring indicators that a society is losing its resilience and complexity.
1. Political and Institutional Decay
The breakdown of governance and public trust is a primary precursor to collapse:
Elite Overproduction: A surplus of highly educated or wealthy individuals competing for a limited number of elite positions, leading to intense infighting and factionalism.
Widespread Corruption: Institutionalized corruption and "extractive institutions" that prioritize the enrichment of a small elite over the needs of the general population.
Loss of Institutional Faith: A significant decline in public trust in government, religious, and legal institutions.
Increased Surveillance: Governments may respond to growing unrest by expanding police and surveillance powers to maintain control.
2. Economic Fragility
Economic indicators often signal a society's inability to maintain its own complexity:
Hyper-Inequality: Extreme wealth gaps where the vast majority of resources are held by a tiny fraction of the population, often leading to social friction and revolution.
Currency Devaluation and Inflation: Historical examples, such as Rome, saw governments devaluing currency to pay off unsustainable national debts, resulting in rampant inflation.
Diminishing Returns (EROI): Joseph Tainter and other scholars highlight falling Energy Return on Investment—when the energy (or resources) required to maintain a society's complexity begins to outweigh the benefits.
3. Social and Cultural Fragmentation
The "social glue" that holds a civilization together begins to dissolve:
Loss of Shared Values: The erosion or intense contesting of core cultural beliefs and ideologies that once provided unity.
Extreme Polarization: A divided populace where political or social groups are no longer able to find middle ground, often characterized by "scapegoating" and internal strife.
Decline in Innovation: A stagnation in intellectual and cultural pursuits, often accompanied by a "disinclination for abstract thinking".
4. Environmental and Demographic Stress
Physical limitations can act as "triggering mechanisms" for collapse:
Resource Depletion: Overexploitation of vital resources (e.g., deforestation, soil exhaustion) beyond sustainable levels.
Demographic "Busts": Sudden drops in population due to declining birth rates, disease outbreaks (pandemics), or mass migration.
Inability to Manage Crises: A "critical slowing down" where the society recovers more and more slowly from external shocks like droughts or natural disasters.
5. Historical "Perfect Storms"
Experts like Eric Cline note that while single stressors (like a drought or an invasion) may not cause collapse, a "system collapse" often occurs when three or four such catastrophes happen in quick succession, creating a domino effect from which the society cannot recover.
If you use this definition, collapse is already here. 6 months from now it still will be, just with a range of new problems arising from this poorly thought out piece of geopolitical buffoonery. I'm sure your ice maker will still work though.
RE