A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.
Oil executives and analysts warn that the Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened by mid-April or oil-supply disruptions will get significantly worse. Benchmark oil prices reflect some optimistic scenarios that could still come true, but the window for that to happen is closing. President Donald Trump’s ability to sway the market toward lower prices appears to be diminishing as a result.
Nearly every analyst here tells you what will happen if the war stops now. They don't talk about what will happen if the straight is still closed in July, or eve May or June. Everybody woorks on the assumption it's another 3-4 weeks MAX. Somehow, I doubt it. Militarily, it's a nightmare and would take way more than the 5000 or so troops so far on the road. They won't all even be in place for another 2 weeks.
Under the more likely scenario oil doesn't start pouring out of there, you're talking a total meltdown in most of Europe and Asia, and it won't be pretty here either.
Trump is not gonna be real popular in that scenario.
RE