
The Oil Crisis is About to Get Physical
The price elasticity of demand for crude oil is low meaning even large price increases only cause small declines in demand. What are the possibilities? Three scenarios for the disruption to oil supply are considered. A “low disruption” scenario where supply is reduced by 8 percent , a medium scenario in which supply falls by 12 percent, and a high disruption scenario in which it falls by 16 percent.
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