The Hormuz get out of jail card turned to a grave
For decades the IRGC relied on its ability to threaten closure of the Strait of Hormuz as its premier economic shield and golden get out of jail card. Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products normally transit the strait.
That volume accounts for one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne traded oil. Yet the destinations of those flows expose the asymmetry that ultimately doomed the strategy.
Here's a wild new projection for the result of the closure of the Hormuz straight! This guy figures it's a doomed strategy since alternate routes will be built to move the oil and the FSoA will up its exports to cover the global shortfall inside a year or so. By 5 years everything is back to normal and Iran is marginalized. In a decade the regime collapses.
Most entertaining is that he thinks Trumpolini is a forward thinking strategic GENIUS!!! 🤪
"The Hormuz closure wasn't a surprise to any serious person, one might argue Trump turned what the enemy believed to be a leverage to a ticking time bomb trap the IRGC just walked into.
IRGC was never the end goal, China is."
Opinions welcome.
RE