Quote from: K-Dog on May 24, 2026, 08:53 PMThe Phoney War was an eight-month period at the start of World War II, from September 1939 to May 1940, during which there were virtually no Allied military land operations on the Western Front.

I find it hard to call the kind of conflict we see lately a "War".  It's more like a Siege utilizing Terror Bombing.  The objective isn't to kill enemy soldiers as much as it is to destroy infrastructure and economically starve the opponent into capitulation.  Generally, the side with the better delivery systems for the bombs who has more of them will win over the long term, but as this conflict is showing now, it may not always remain true.

The best delivery system for bombing since WWII has been Aerial Bombardment using expensive airplanes and missiles.  The advent of Cheap Unmanned Drones has brought a great delivery system for bombing within the financial reach of even relatively poor states and even non-state actors.  As long as your bombs can reach and destroy critical infrastructure delivering energy, communications, food & water to the target population, you can compete in such a conflict as long as you can outlast your opponent's tolerance for economic disruption.

The poorer the state is to begin with, the less they have to destroy and the more capable the people are of living without it once it's bombed.  Cubans can last far longer without the lights on in Havana than any city in the FSoA could last.  If the community of ex-Pat Cubans here started using drones to bomb say transformers in Miami to knock out power, the current blockade would get a lot tougher to sell.  However, unlike Iran, Cuba is small and isolated, so a full scale invasion would be undertaken.  Also, many of the ex-Pat Cubans are rabid anti-Commies who actually root for regime change.

Ukraine's battle against Russia is a better example.  They're not isolated, getting support from nearby NATO countries.  Though smaller than Russia, it's not as big a difference of FSoA vs. Cuba.  Their Cheap Drones are allowing them to do almost as much damage to Russia's Oil exporting capability as Russia's missiles and air force can do to Ukraine.

Iran has the HUGE geographical advantage of it's proximity to the Global Energy Chokepoint of Hormuz to be able to threaten the ENTIRE WORLD with energy & food starvation, and all they need to do it are cheap drones, unmanned robotic mines (Dolphins) & torpedos, speedboats and short range shoulder fired laser guided missiles.  As long as they can deal with the power being out most of the time and have access to food and water coming in over land, they're fine.  The rest of the world has less tolerance for globl recession, unemployment and inflation than they have for living by candlelight.

I don't think most of our military planners and strategists understand this new dynamic very well yet, and the legacy militaries of the FSoA, Russia and China haven't yet adapted to it.  It's going to radically change the balance of power as the use of the cheap drones spreads.  I definitely forsee the use of drones here inside the borders of the FSoA as the global conflicts over energy and food become more intense.  Perhaps as soon as next year.  Time will tell.

RE