SpaceX Is Already Pulling Back From Its High. History Says That Is Not a Good Sign
SpaceX surged 19% on its IPO debut, but mega-IPOs over $50 billion have historically delivered a median one-year return of -31.9%.
A MEDIAN return of -32% for mega IPOs. lol. If SpaceX even comes in at -50% this year and investors only lose half their money they will be lucky. If they have a buy & hold strategy, maybe they'll break even in 10 years.
This IPO had LOSER written all over it from the get go.
At roughly $2.4 trillion, investors are paying more than 100 times trailing revenue. That's a valuation that assumes years of near-flawless execution across rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence.
100X revenue with PERFECT execution over at least a decade? When has Elon ever had perfect execution and met the targets he set at the beginning? When and if anything he promises actually comes and works, it's still at least 5 years behind schedule. Still waiting for those self-driving carz. But of course it never has to turn a profit, just keep splitting the stock and dragging in more investors and building more factories and the stock keeps going up. Maybe he'll pull it off again with SpaceX, the market can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent. Such is the game of Casino Capitalism.
RE