Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 10, 2026, 11:52 PM

QuoteMaybe our resident expert can make a world class analysis.

He has talked about his ability to do a world class analysis  many times.  But from his perspective, to get oi from the ground all you do is put a straw in the ground and suck.  And remember he only talks about his abilities, and he never has demonstrated jack shit.  If you can show me any of his posts that hint at any world class knowledge, I'd like to see them.

Not being an expert, the fact I identified Demand Destruction as the reason for the price of oil not reflecting the supply disruption a full month before the IEA published their expectations could be attributed to being a lucky guess.  Since I'm feeling lucky, I'll make a few more guesses.

Both the attacks on Russian and Iranian Oil supply are being directed at the behest of the Oil majors.  They are only tangentially because of Ukraine's persecution of ethnic Russians in Donbass and Crimea or Iran's Nuke development program.  They needed to get this supply off line in order to raise the price enough to bring the unconventional Oil in the FSoA, Canada and Brasil up to a profitable margin.  In the high $70s, they just about do that.  Where it was at in the low $60s they were bleeding money and capital for more drilling was drying up.

They have successfully killed Demand all across the poor countries in SE Asia and Africa.  This  will correlate directly to killing people, and the Demand won't be coming back to those places anytime soon.  They can't keep the price much above this without killing demand (and more people) in the slightly wealthier middle countries like Southern Europe and in South America and have the same effect.  Kill TOO MUCH Demand and there will be an oversupply of refining infrastructure that would have to be shut in.

China, which gets most of it's Oil from Russia and Iran has been insulated from the problems their neighbors have been facing because they maintained a large strategic reserve will at some point in the not too distant future need to start refilling those storage tanks to keep their industrial machine running.  This will likely occur before the Ruskies can fix all their broken hardware or the Iranians can star shipping Oil out in the quantities necessary.  That will put price pressure back on the market, and there will be another round of DD in wealthier countries.  Actual supply shortages will  result i more political upheavals.

War currently limited to Russian and Iranian infrastructure will expand to other countries.  Look for refineries and shipping ports being attacked in SA and Europe by Russians and Chinese proxies.  Possibly in the FSoA as well.  Neither country can allow the FSoA to remain operational selling oil while they are being bombed out of the market.

RE