Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 03:11 PMWe've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline the already.

Collapse CAN be a local event. Like Katrina. But that isn't the one Doomers get all worked up over. When you were in full doomer mode with websites and followers and fundage down in South Carolina, is what you were selling was some folks in Eastern Europe having to put up solar panels or NG fired generation to replace electricity from a nuke plant? Because water for coolant was low? No....that wasn't what you were interested in.

The reason you reach for small potatoes is because there aren't any big potato items going on. Or none on a current fuse anyway. Climate change is to slow on your timeframe to be of interest. Peak oils have come and gone a few times without anyone noticing. The US, for all its idiot political crap is still feeding people, oligarches, illegals, retiree's, and those completely dependent on the state. Now THAT one is a criteria I think might be, or should be, most of personal concern. I have the same concern but in a different way. If care of the elderly goes south and contributes to a falling population, I've got to figure out how to care for my mother. Fortunately that is possible for me, but probably not for everyone.

Quote from: REBesides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.
RE

Now, lagging indicator is a good angle. Population decrease is always happening, as is population replacement. But for the balance of births to deaths to go net negative would be visible as it happens. So....do we have any indication of people dying at unprecedented, but not yet numerically significant enough to count, events?

Nuke plants MAYBE shutting down certainly ain't it. Russia's war might be s start? Russia seems to be losing quite a few folks. The usual poor countries in Africa perhaps? Anything new there on  a scale that outweighs new births do you think?